Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan 2021: Impact on India

[Detective Pennington]

Some very specific numbers and source mentioned, but this is still just a tweet don't think there is any coverage in mainstream news in the US yet.

How the fuck did these Paki clowns get drones?

 

[jackprince]

Ekdum Simple Deal Hui Hai:
1) Paxtan will help Talibunnies in annexing Panjshir using it's assets (Paxtan used drones and it's satellites to target Resistance forces), in return they expect the Talibunnies will help them in J!had against us.
2) Paxtan and China both are eyeing the weapons Biden Chicha has left for their Najayaj Talibunnies, they will definitely try to reverse engineer those weapons and in return they will arm Talibunnies with Air Defence Systems/SAMs.
3) They will try to shift their T3rror!st training facilities from PoK to Afghanistan in order to evade any upcoming sanctions from FATF and to get out of the FATF grey list. the SAMs will also help in this front (it will give them a false sense of protection from any retaliatory air strike).

So what can India do in this case?

The Resistance is a gone case now and it would be a waste of resources by helping them (in its current form). but yes we can (we should) keep it alive but not in its current centralised form, but a mix of decentralized guerrilla warfare and propaganda warfare.
The resistance forces mainly consist of ethnic minorities like Tajiks, Uzbeks and Hazaras. Ahmad Massoud and Saleh both have good relations with Tajikistan and India. We also operate two air bases in Tajikistan which can help us in destroying any kind of force that dares to attack us.

Point No.1 : The deal was never a major point as it is a given that Talibs would send men to serve Pakistan. Heck, half the Taliban is Pakistanis. In fact, for a stable rule in Afghanistan, Talibs would need to send its more zealot ones to kill and make mayhem somewhere else. The dogs that tasted blood once, need to be supplied with blood. So, that cannot be the pressing issue that made Porkies show their hands so openly.

Point No. 02 : US didn't leave behind any super secret weapon that Porkies hadn't have hands on already, and we know what Porkies have, are liberally used by its master Chinkies too.

Pont No. 03: This is one major point and can be somewhat true. But, that too was a given. As Afghanistan is surrounded by lands that are not welcoming to Talib rule, its sole gateway to supply is Porkies and they would not be bargaining hard to provide the safe haven for terror camps that Porkies obviously demanded.

No, in my opinion, the above 3 points are minor compared to what became clear today with the Afghanistan govt declaration. The Porkies won the Panjshir to cut down the factions within Kabul that had negative disposition towards Porkies from the access to the power. Panjshir was a show of force - not solely against Northern Alliance.

Porkies brought in hell in the Panjshir to show that they don't care to follow the playbook of west and they can be as brutal or more than Talibs themselves. So the opposing factions better tow the line.

We mustn't forget that with NATO gone, Russia reluctant to engage and Porki's master US effectively monitoring the borders of Uzbek and Taziik, the Porkies are the only power in the region which can crush Talibs.

Some may call it a bluff that Porkies can defeat Talibs when NATO couldn't. But, think about the difference. Porki was the sole supply line as well as safe heaven for Talibs and if Prokies choose to crush them, Talibs literally wont have anywhere to turn or run. Also, Porkies don't fight a gentleman's war. They are brutal and genocidal, and if needed they can actually massacre one or other tribe to gte their way.

So, I think the Panjshir adventure was a marketing venture in favour of Bajwa showing Talibs what PA can do.



Now, India should continue investing in whatever resistance there would remain so that when the inevitable powers shift happens, India again gets a closer look in the game. It is not a matter of abandonment or honour, but securing future interest.

Again, our IAF assets wont be able to do much from those isolated bases and the operating parameters may also be restricted due to permission from Tajikistan. We are not the only player in Tajikistan and China in recent times has substantially increased its footprint in Tajikistan. Also, Taziks are not likely to step beyond the limitations set by Russia. So, the bases in Tajikistan are not like how US operates from its overseas bases.

So even if we have major assets deployed in Ayni and Farkhor, we can't just go bomb Talibs from Tajik soil anytime we want.

 

[jackprince]

Pakistan already offers China an alternative route to Arabian sea..

That route comes through Karakoram, GB and PoK. Quite vulnerable if India wants to cut it off. A route through Tajikistan, Afghanistan and then to Iran is much safer for China.

 

[MIDKNIGHT FENERIR-00]

How the fuck did these Paki clowns get drones?

Chinese and they are negotiating with Turkey to get some from them as well.

 

[Srinivas_K]

 

[Srinivas_K]

 

[Cheetah007]

I see a future war between tali and Iran with full umrika support to the talis.

 

[Detective Pennington]

With China and US/NATO protecting Pak from accountability due to personal interest/fear of nuclear war, and Russia siding with China on everything just to oppose US, not much India can do with regard to increased terrorism from Talib controlled Afghanistan.

it’s time to start taking risks. Indian government needs to understand this. Surgical strikes aren’t enough, we have to retaliate in Sindh, POK/GB or Balochistan in response to attack.

 

[Indrajit]

OpIndia - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And you cite this source to support your views?

Seriously, you quote Wikipedia on this? Cmon man, you know better. Someone saying something is fake news hardly makes it so. Especially considering the sustained attack on the Indian right wing, including on the PM and the present government of India .

I have read OpIndia, not the best in presentation and given to occasional exaggeration but they are hardly fake news. Imo. They have done some pretty good work on some subjects though like all such organizations driven by ideology, they get overexcited sometimes . Good though to get information on somethings the others won't cover.

 

[Lost user]

Good.. we are showing more backbone unlike the 90s..

 

[Indrajit]

Are Indo-Russian Ties the Next Casualty of Great-Power Shifts?

The fall of Kabul may have widened the rift between New Delhi and Moscow.

foreignpolicy.com

 

[kunal1123]

Taliban captured helicopters of Amrullah Salih and AHMAD Masuad...

 

[Srinivas_K]

Are Indo-Russian Ties the Next Casualty of Great-Power Shifts?

The fall of Kabul may have widened the rift between New Delhi and Moscow.

foreignpolicy.com

India can manage the ties with USA and Russia successfully, Now that US is leaving and left the space.

 

[Mikesingh]

What's interesting to note is the way NA is going up the escalation ladder. They are bringing in their aerial assets into play once the opposition brought in their's.

Getting some professional miltary advice?

Advice? Yep! From the IAF based at Farkhor and Ayani AFBs in Tajikistan.

 

[fire starter]

It can not be coincidence.

 

[fire starter]

Hmm.

 

[Mikesingh]

How the fu*k did these Paki clowns get drones?

They have the Burraq since 2015, development of which proceeded in secrecy, mostly influenced by the US Predator and the Chinese Rainbow CH-3 UCAVs, which has a range of 960 km and an endurance of 12 hrs. It carries YC 200 guided bombs and AR-1 air to ground missile14. Burraq has a range of 1000 km, its maximum speed is 215 km/h and a service ceiling is 7500 meters. It carries two ‘Barq’ air-to-surface laser-guided missiles15.

China is likely to sell 48 of its high-end reconnaissance, strike, and multi-role Wing Loong II UCAVs to Pakistan. The cost of the deal has not been revealed. These probably would be CKD kits that would be assembled at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC) which by implication, is likely to involve Transfer of Technology (ToT) too.

 

[Srinivas_K]

Hmm.
View attachment 109092

Green light might have already given I guess.

 

[Automatic Kalashnikov]

It can not be coincidence.

You have screenshot, not visible to me

 

[Covfefe]

Spoiler: Tweet screenshot