Russian involvement in Syrian crisis
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http://thediplomat.com/2015/10/heres-what-india-thinks-about-russian-air-strikes-in-syria/
Here's what India thinks about Russian air strikes in Syria
Here's what India thinks about Russian air strikes in Syria
SAUDI ARABIA IS NOW SUPPORTING RUSSIAN INTERVENTION:
http://sputniknews.com/politics/201...arabia-gives-up-resistance.html#ixzz3oM40hZfT
http://sputniknews.com/politics/201...arabia-gives-up-resistance.html#ixzz3oM40hZfT
pmaitra
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Question for @gadeshi, @Cadian, @Akim, @marrakesh, et al..
When do Russians translate and when do they transliterate?
I see IS (Islamic State) translated into IG or ИГ (Islamskogo Gosudarstvo), not transliterated to ИС.
I see USA translated to SShA or США, not УСА.
Then why is John not translated to Ivan or Иван. Why is it transliterated to John or Джон?
P.S.: John Kirby -> Джон Кирби
pmaitra
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The official Indian position is in line with the official Russian position. One must do a survey of Indians. I am confident most people following Syria are delighted that these liver eating head chopping (moderate or whatever) nutjobs are getting turned into tandoori chicken.
Key statements:
Good to see GoI is not buying the "moderate" bovine droppings from the west.
The good news is, our bureaucrats, at least the majority of them, are not delusional fanboys. Not yet.
Last edited:
pmaitra
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So, Russia fires some missiles from Caspian Sea and the Wahhabis hurry to Sochi. Not too surprised.
This is called "Putin the Wahhabis in place."
pmaitra
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More than a US$107,407 per terrorist? That's rich.
I pray to God that Obama does not end up like Kennedy.
pmaitra
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He he he, I think German Engineering got a taste of Russkyi Engineering: Somebody Is Jamming Those German Drones in East UkraineYes, but only a bit I think.
The electronic warfare systems Krasuha-4s and Murmansk-BNs I think, is what they fear more.
gadeshi
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Names cannot be translated, translitrated only. But abbreviations can (which is obvioud why).
Отправлено с моего XT1080 через Tapatalk
pmaitra
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Russia Preempted Turkish Foolishness in Syria but US Seen Uping the Ante
There’s a US military build up in Turkey but Mike Whitney says this is just a bluff - the Syria War will end mostly on Russian terms with US screaming all the way to the resolution
Mike Whitney | (CounterPunch) | Russia Insider
Originally appeared at CounterPunch
Russia doesn’t want to fight a war with Turkey, so Russian generals devised a simple, but effective plan to discourage Turkey from taking any action that could lead to a clash between the two nations.
Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor. On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.
Then there was a third incident, a more serious incident, that was not a mistake. It was clearly intended to send a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Here’s a short summary of what happened from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:
This was no mistake. The only time a fighter pilot adopts these protocols is when he plans to take down an enemy plane. This was a message, and while it might have been over-the-heads of the politicians and the media but, I assure you, every general in the Turkish High-Command knows what’s it means. This is a wake-up call. Moscow is indicating that there’s a new sheriff in town and that Turkey had better behave itself or there’s going to be trouble. There’s not going to be any US-Turkey no-fly zone over North Syria, there’s not going to be any aerial attacks on Syrian sites from the Turkish side of the border, and there certainly is not going to be any ground invasion of Turkish troops into Syria. The Russian Aerospace Defence Forces now control the skies over Syria and they are determined to defend Syria’s sovereign borders. That’s the message. Period.
This is a good example of how “preemption” can actually prevent conflicts rather than starting them. By firing a shot over Turkey’s bow, Moscow has dampened Erdogan’s plan to annex part of N. Syria and declare it a “safe zone.” Turkey will have to scrap that plan now realizing that any attempt to seize-and-hold Syrian territory will trigger a swift and powerful Russian retaliation. Seen in this light, Russia’s incursion looks like an extremely effective way to prevent a broader war by simply telegraphing to potential adversaries what they can and can’t do. Simply put: Putin has rewritten the rules of the game in Syria and Erdogan had better comply or else. Here’s more on Turkey from Patrick Cockburn in The Independent:
Poor Erdogan. He rolled the dice and came up snake-eyes. He figured he could expand his would-be Ottoman Empire into Northern Syria, and now his dream is in a shambles. Should he deploy his warplanes to N Syria and openly challenge the Russian airforce? No, he’s not that foolish. He’s going to stay on his side of the border, stomp his feet, and lash out at “evil Putin”, but at the end of the day, he’ll do nothing.
And Washington’s not going to do anything either. Yes, Hillary and McCain have been calling for a no-fly zone over Syria, but that’s not going to happen. Putin won’t allow it and neither will the Security Council. And, on what pretext anyway? Is Obama really going to request a no-fly zone on the basis that Putin is killing “moderate” terrorists along with the “extreme” terrorists? That’s not a very compelling argument, in fact, even the American people are having a hard time swallowing that one. If Obama wants something from Putin, he’s going to have [to] sit-down at a bargaining table and hash out a deal. So far, he has refused to do that, because he still thinks regime change is within his grasp. There are signs of this everywhere like this article in Turkey’s Today’s Zaman titled “İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel”:
This article smacks of US ambitions in the Middle East. As readers can plainly see, Washington is gearing up for another war just like it did in 1991. And the US air war is going to be launched from “Patriot Town” at Incirlik just like we’ve been predicting since July when the deal was finalized. Here’s more background from an article at Hurriyet:
“US Search and rescue helicopters” just a couple miles from Turkey’s southeastern border?
Yep. In other words, if an F-16 is shot down somewhere over Syria while trying to impose an illegal no-fly zone, then– Presto– the search and rescue helicopters are just 20 minutes away.
How convenient.
So you can see that– even though Putin has thrown a wrench in the works– the Obama team is still moving ahead with its “Topple Assad” plan. Nothing has changed, the Russian intervention just makes the future much more uncertain which is why frustrated geopolitical strategists, like Zbigniew Brzezinski, have begun to pop-up in the op-ed pages of leading newspapers blasting Putin for sabotaging their plans for regional hegemony. It’s worth noting that Brzezinski is the spiritual godfather of Islamic extremism, the man who figured out how religious nutcases could be used to foment hysteria and advance US geopolitical objectives around the world. Thus, it’s only natural that Brzezinski would want to offer his advice now in a desperate effort to avoid a legacy of failure and disgrace. Check out this clip from Politico:
The people who Brzezinski breezily refers to as “American assets” in Syria are terrorists. It’s that simple. Putin doesn’t distinguish between the “moderate” terrorists and the “radical” terrorists, the good terrorists and the bad terrorists. It’s a joke. They’re all in the same pool and they’re all going to meet the same fate. They all have to be rooted out, apprehended or killed. End of story.
By tweaking the war on terror narrative in a way that supports some, but condemns others, the Obama administration has backed themselves into an ideological cul de sac from which there is no way out. What they are doing is wrong and they know it is wrong. And that’s why it’s going to be so difficult to make the case for war. In a recent “must see” interview, Putin called out Obama on this very point. Here’s what he said:
See? Everyone knows what’s going on. Barack Obama is not going to initiate a confrontation with Russia to defend a fundamentally immoral CIA program that has gone south. He will, however, do what the US always does when dealing with an adversary that can actually defend itself. He’s going to hector, harass, threaten, demean, demonize, ridicule, and bully. He might launch another attack on the ruble, or fiddle with oil prices or impose more economic sanctions. But he’s not going to start a war with Russia, that’s just not going to happen.
But don’t give up hope just yet, after all, there is a silver lining to this fiasco, and all of the main players know exactly what it is.
It’s called Geneva. Geneva is the endgame.
Geneva is the UN-backed road map for ending the war in Syria. Its provisions allow for the “establishment of a transitional governing body”, the “participation of all groups… in a meaningful national dialogue,” and “free and fair multi-party elections.”
The treaty is straightforward and uncontroversial. The one sticking point, is whether Assad will be allowed to participate in the transitional government or not.
Putin says “Yes.” Obama says “No.”
Putin is going to win this battle. Eventually, the administration will cave in and withdraw their demand that Assad step down. Their plans for regime change through the use of jihadi-proxies will have failed, and Putin will have moved the Middle East one step closer to a lasting peace and genuine security.
That’s the silver lining and that’s how the war in Syria will end.
Bravo, Putin.
__________________________________________________
Commentary: Question for y’all. How many articles by western stooges like Ben Judah, Timothy Snyder (can’t spell his name), Michael Gordon, have you guys seen that have so many references? Well, folks, that’s the quality of journalism in NYT, BBC, The Guardian,Moscow Finland Times.
There’s a US military build up in Turkey but Mike Whitney says this is just a bluff - the Syria War will end mostly on Russian terms with US screaming all the way to the resolution
Mike Whitney | (CounterPunch) | Russia Insider
Originally appeared at CounterPunch
Russia doesn’t want to fight a war with Turkey, so Russian generals devised a simple, but effective plan to discourage Turkey from taking any action that could lead to a clash between the two nations.
Last week, Russian warplanes intruded into Turkish airspace twice. Both incidents caused consternation in Ankara and send Turkish leaders into a furor. On both occasions, officials in Moscow politely apologized for the incursions claiming they were unintentional (“navigational errors”) and that they would try to avoid similar intrusions in the future.
Then there was a third incident, a more serious incident, that was not a mistake. It was clearly intended to send a message to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Here’s a short summary of what happened from an article at the World Socialist Web Site:
“Turkish officials claimed a third incident on Monday, when an unidentified MiG-29 fighter jet locked its radar for four and a half minutes on eight Turkish F-16 jets that were on patrol on their side of the border, in apparent preparation to open fire.” (“US, NATO step up threats to Russia over Syria,” World Socialist Web Site)
This was no mistake. The only time a fighter pilot adopts these protocols is when he plans to take down an enemy plane. This was a message, and while it might have been over-the-heads of the politicians and the media but, I assure you, every general in the Turkish High-Command knows what’s it means. This is a wake-up call. Moscow is indicating that there’s a new sheriff in town and that Turkey had better behave itself or there’s going to be trouble. There’s not going to be any US-Turkey no-fly zone over North Syria, there’s not going to be any aerial attacks on Syrian sites from the Turkish side of the border, and there certainly is not going to be any ground invasion of Turkish troops into Syria. The Russian Aerospace Defence Forces now control the skies over Syria and they are determined to defend Syria’s sovereign borders. That’s the message. Period.
This is a good example of how “preemption” can actually prevent conflicts rather than starting them. By firing a shot over Turkey’s bow, Moscow has dampened Erdogan’s plan to annex part of N. Syria and declare it a “safe zone.” Turkey will have to scrap that plan now realizing that any attempt to seize-and-hold Syrian territory will trigger a swift and powerful Russian retaliation. Seen in this light, Russia’s incursion looks like an extremely effective way to prevent a broader war by simply telegraphing to potential adversaries what they can and can’t do. Simply put: Putin has rewritten the rules of the game in Syria and Erdogan had better comply or else. Here’s more on Turkey from Patrick Cockburn in The Independent:
“A Turkish ground invasion into Syria, though still a possibility, would now be riskier with Russian aircraft operating in areas where Turkey would be most likely to launch an incursion.
The danger for the Turks is that they now have two Kurdish quasi-states, one in Syria and one in Iraq, immediately to the south. Worse, the Syrian-Kurdish one…is run by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which is effectively the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984. Any insurgency by the PKK in Kurdish areas in south-east Turkey in future will be strengthened by the fact that the PKK has a de facto state of its own.
It appears that Turkey’s four-year attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad has failed. It is unclear what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can do about this since support from Nato is at this stage purely rhetorical. As for Turkey’s relations with Russia, Mr Erdogan says that any attack on Turkey is an attack on Nato and that “if Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has co-operated on many issues, it will lose a lot.” But in Syria, at least, it appears that it is Turkey that is the loser.” (“Russia in Syria: Russian Radar Locks on to Turkish Fighter Jets,” The Unz Review)
The danger for the Turks is that they now have two Kurdish quasi-states, one in Syria and one in Iraq, immediately to the south. Worse, the Syrian-Kurdish one…is run by the Democratic Union Party (PYD) which is effectively the Syrian branch of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which has been fighting the Turkish state since 1984. Any insurgency by the PKK in Kurdish areas in south-east Turkey in future will be strengthened by the fact that the PKK has a de facto state of its own.
It appears that Turkey’s four-year attempt to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad has failed. It is unclear what Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan can do about this since support from Nato is at this stage purely rhetorical. As for Turkey’s relations with Russia, Mr Erdogan says that any attack on Turkey is an attack on Nato and that “if Russia loses a friend like Turkey with whom it has co-operated on many issues, it will lose a lot.” But in Syria, at least, it appears that it is Turkey that is the loser.” (“Russia in Syria: Russian Radar Locks on to Turkish Fighter Jets,” The Unz Review)
Poor Erdogan. He rolled the dice and came up snake-eyes. He figured he could expand his would-be Ottoman Empire into Northern Syria, and now his dream is in a shambles. Should he deploy his warplanes to N Syria and openly challenge the Russian airforce? No, he’s not that foolish. He’s going to stay on his side of the border, stomp his feet, and lash out at “evil Putin”, but at the end of the day, he’ll do nothing.
And Washington’s not going to do anything either. Yes, Hillary and McCain have been calling for a no-fly zone over Syria, but that’s not going to happen. Putin won’t allow it and neither will the Security Council. And, on what pretext anyway? Is Obama really going to request a no-fly zone on the basis that Putin is killing “moderate” terrorists along with the “extreme” terrorists? That’s not a very compelling argument, in fact, even the American people are having a hard time swallowing that one. If Obama wants something from Putin, he’s going to have [to] sit-down at a bargaining table and hash out a deal. So far, he has refused to do that, because he still thinks regime change is within his grasp. There are signs of this everywhere like this article in Turkey’s Today’s Zaman titled “İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel”:
“A tent city within İncirlik has been undergoing reconstruction for modern prefabricated houses, which will host 2,250 US military personnel, the Doğan news agency reported on Friday. During the Gulf War of 1991, a tent city was established to accommodate military personnel serving with Operation Provide Comfort (OPC) and was shut down with the end of the OPC.
On Aug. 20, work began to transform the site of the tent city into a new area named “Patriot Town.” After construction is completed, the İncirlik base will have the largest capacity among the US bases in Europe…
The expansion of the İncirlik base’s capacity comes at a time when Russia has launched the biggest intervention in the Middle East in decades….Moscow’s intervention means the conflict in Syria has been transformed from a proxy war.. into an international conflict in which the world’s main military powers… are directly involved in fighting.” (“İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel,” Today’s Zaman)
On Aug. 20, work began to transform the site of the tent city into a new area named “Patriot Town.” After construction is completed, the İncirlik base will have the largest capacity among the US bases in Europe…
The expansion of the İncirlik base’s capacity comes at a time when Russia has launched the biggest intervention in the Middle East in decades….Moscow’s intervention means the conflict in Syria has been transformed from a proxy war.. into an international conflict in which the world’s main military powers… are directly involved in fighting.” (“İncirlik base to increase capacity by 2,250 to accommodate new personnel,” Today’s Zaman)
This article smacks of US ambitions in the Middle East. As readers can plainly see, Washington is gearing up for another war just like it did in 1991. And the US air war is going to be launched from “Patriot Town” at Incirlik just like we’ve been predicting since July when the deal was finalized. Here’s more background from an article at Hurriyet:
“U.S. Air Force Central Command has started deploying search and rescue helicopters and airmen at Turkey’s southeastern Diyarbakır Air Base in order to help with recovery operations in neighboring Iraq and Syria, it has announced….
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and the commander of U.S. European Command, Gen. Phillip Breedlove, has said the mission will be temporary.
“We will be guests of the government of Turkey at Diyarbakir Air Base. There are no plans for a permanent U.S. presence at this location … This marks yet another successful cooperative effort between the Turkish and U.S. militaries,” Breedlove said.” (“US deploys recovery aircraft in Turkey’s southeast,” Hurriyet)
NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander in Europe and the commander of U.S. European Command, Gen. Phillip Breedlove, has said the mission will be temporary.
“We will be guests of the government of Turkey at Diyarbakir Air Base. There are no plans for a permanent U.S. presence at this location … This marks yet another successful cooperative effort between the Turkish and U.S. militaries,” Breedlove said.” (“US deploys recovery aircraft in Turkey’s southeast,” Hurriyet)
“US Search and rescue helicopters” just a couple miles from Turkey’s southeastern border?
Yep. In other words, if an F-16 is shot down somewhere over Syria while trying to impose an illegal no-fly zone, then– Presto– the search and rescue helicopters are just 20 minutes away.
How convenient.
So you can see that– even though Putin has thrown a wrench in the works– the Obama team is still moving ahead with its “Topple Assad” plan. Nothing has changed, the Russian intervention just makes the future much more uncertain which is why frustrated geopolitical strategists, like Zbigniew Brzezinski, have begun to pop-up in the op-ed pages of leading newspapers blasting Putin for sabotaging their plans for regional hegemony. It’s worth noting that Brzezinski is the spiritual godfather of Islamic extremism, the man who figured out how religious nutcases could be used to foment hysteria and advance US geopolitical objectives around the world. Thus, it’s only natural that Brzezinski would want to offer his advice now in a desperate effort to avoid a legacy of failure and disgrace. Check out this clip from Politico:
“The United States should threaten to retaliate if Russia does not stop attacking U.S. assets in Syria, former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote in a Financial Times op-ed published Sunday, urging “strategic boldness,” with American credibility in the Middle East and the region itself at stake….And if Russia continues to pursue non-ISIL targets, the U.S. should retaliate, he added.
“In these rapidly unfolding circumstances the U.S. has only one real option if it is to protect its wider stakes in the region: to convey to Moscow the demand that it cease and desist from military actions that directly affect American assets,” he said.” (“Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn’t stop attacking U.S. assets,” Politico)
“In these rapidly unfolding circumstances the U.S. has only one real option if it is to protect its wider stakes in the region: to convey to Moscow the demand that it cease and desist from military actions that directly affect American assets,” he said.” (“Brzezinski: Obama should retaliate if Russia doesn’t stop attacking U.S. assets,” Politico)
The people who Brzezinski breezily refers to as “American assets” in Syria are terrorists. It’s that simple. Putin doesn’t distinguish between the “moderate” terrorists and the “radical” terrorists, the good terrorists and the bad terrorists. It’s a joke. They’re all in the same pool and they’re all going to meet the same fate. They all have to be rooted out, apprehended or killed. End of story.
By tweaking the war on terror narrative in a way that supports some, but condemns others, the Obama administration has backed themselves into an ideological cul de sac from which there is no way out. What they are doing is wrong and they know it is wrong. And that’s why it’s going to be so difficult to make the case for war. In a recent “must see” interview, Putin called out Obama on this very point. Here’s what he said:
“President Obama frequently mentions the threat of ISIS. Well, who on earth armed them? And who created the political climate that facilitated the current situation? Who delivered arms to the area? Do you really not know who is fighting in Syria? They’re mercenaries mostly. They are paid money. Mercenaries work for whatever side pays more. We even know how much they are paid. We know they fight for awhile and then see that someone else pays a little more, so they go there…..
The US says “We must support the civilized, democratic opposition in Syria.” So they support them, arm them, and then they join ISIS. Is it impossible for the US to think one step ahead? We do not support this kind of policy at all. We think it’s wrong.” (“Putin explains who started ISIS,” YouTube, 1:38 to 4:03)
The US says “We must support the civilized, democratic opposition in Syria.” So they support them, arm them, and then they join ISIS. Is it impossible for the US to think one step ahead? We do not support this kind of policy at all. We think it’s wrong.” (“Putin explains who started ISIS,” YouTube, 1:38 to 4:03)
See? Everyone knows what’s going on. Barack Obama is not going to initiate a confrontation with Russia to defend a fundamentally immoral CIA program that has gone south. He will, however, do what the US always does when dealing with an adversary that can actually defend itself. He’s going to hector, harass, threaten, demean, demonize, ridicule, and bully. He might launch another attack on the ruble, or fiddle with oil prices or impose more economic sanctions. But he’s not going to start a war with Russia, that’s just not going to happen.
But don’t give up hope just yet, after all, there is a silver lining to this fiasco, and all of the main players know exactly what it is.
It’s called Geneva. Geneva is the endgame.
Geneva is the UN-backed road map for ending the war in Syria. Its provisions allow for the “establishment of a transitional governing body”, the “participation of all groups… in a meaningful national dialogue,” and “free and fair multi-party elections.”
The treaty is straightforward and uncontroversial. The one sticking point, is whether Assad will be allowed to participate in the transitional government or not.
Putin says “Yes.” Obama says “No.”
Putin is going to win this battle. Eventually, the administration will cave in and withdraw their demand that Assad step down. Their plans for regime change through the use of jihadi-proxies will have failed, and Putin will have moved the Middle East one step closer to a lasting peace and genuine security.
That’s the silver lining and that’s how the war in Syria will end.
Bravo, Putin.
__________________________________________________
Commentary: Question for y’all. How many articles by western stooges like Ben Judah, Timothy Snyder (can’t spell his name), Michael Gordon, have you guys seen that have so many references? Well, folks, that’s the quality of journalism in NYT, BBC, The Guardian,
amoy
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More and more an proxy war ? 
US military airdrops 50 tons of ammo for Syrian fighters, after training mission ends
US military airdrops 50 tons of ammo for Syrian fighters, after training mission ends
pmaitra
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I hope they are turned into chicken tandoori very soon.More and more an proxy war ?
US military airdrops 50 tons of ammo for Syrian fighters, after training mission ends
BTW, can you confirm Chinese all terrain vehicles in Syria? I have posted Tweets earlier, but then, those are just Tweets.
Jagdish58
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No, the Turkish Air Force has not shot down a Russian aircraft near the Syrian border (at least, not yet)
In the last few days, several media outlets have reported the news that a Russian aircraft deployed to Syria to take part in the air war against the Islamic State was shot down by the Turkish Air Force, after violating Ankara’s sovereign airspace.
Actually, the rumors started after Twitter went abuzz following the reports that an explosion was witnessed in the sky over the Syrian city of Huraytan, where Russian planes were allegedly flying
Shortly after the fake news started doing the rounds, some images of the alleged wreckage of the Russian plane downed near the border appeared on social media. However, these turned out to be photographs of an Afghan Air Force Mi-17 crashed in 2011.
On Oct. 3 and 4 October the Turkish airspace was violated by Russian Air Force Su-30SM and Su-24 aircraft in the Hatay region.
During the first incident, the Russian Su-30SM (initially referred to as a Mig-29 by the Turkish military) maintained a radar lock on one or both the F-16s for a full 5 minutes and 40 seconds before the aircraft departed the Turkish airspace. These incidents were followed by another one, on Oct. 5, when another aircraft, an “unidentified” Mig-29 locked on TuAF F-16s in CAP (Combat Air Patrol) for 4 minutes and 30 seconds.
Following this last episode, the Turkish F-16s began responding to “MiG” radar locks in the same way: by performing lock-ons on the mysterious aircraft flying a bit too close to the border.
Even thought Ankara has said it is not willing to have its aircraft harassed again and won’t accept other violations, nothing at the moment suggests any shot down occurred in the last few days.
The TuAF has never been too “shy” about its military operations air-to-air victories and losses. In Sept. 2013, a TuAF F-16 shot down a Syrian Mi-17 that had violated the Turkish airspace.
On Mar. 23, 2014 a SyAAF Mig-23 that had violated the Turkish airspace by about 1 km was hit by an AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile) fired by a TuAF F-16C in Combat Air Patrol near the border: a victory celebrated with the kill markings on the F-16C 91-008.
Considered that no wreckage has been found, no official protest’s been filed and that, unlike the past, there has been no official statement about any downing by the Turkish authorities, it’s safe to say that no aircraft was shot down, at least not so far.
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/12/no-russian-aircraft-shot-down-over-syria/
In the last few days, several media outlets have reported the news that a Russian aircraft deployed to Syria to take part in the air war against the Islamic State was shot down by the Turkish Air Force, after violating Ankara’s sovereign airspace.
Actually, the rumors started after Twitter went abuzz following the reports that an explosion was witnessed in the sky over the Syrian city of Huraytan, where Russian planes were allegedly flying
Shortly after the fake news started doing the rounds, some images of the alleged wreckage of the Russian plane downed near the border appeared on social media. However, these turned out to be photographs of an Afghan Air Force Mi-17 crashed in 2011.
On Oct. 3 and 4 October the Turkish airspace was violated by Russian Air Force Su-30SM and Su-24 aircraft in the Hatay region.
During the first incident, the Russian Su-30SM (initially referred to as a Mig-29 by the Turkish military) maintained a radar lock on one or both the F-16s for a full 5 minutes and 40 seconds before the aircraft departed the Turkish airspace. These incidents were followed by another one, on Oct. 5, when another aircraft, an “unidentified” Mig-29 locked on TuAF F-16s in CAP (Combat Air Patrol) for 4 minutes and 30 seconds.
Following this last episode, the Turkish F-16s began responding to “MiG” radar locks in the same way: by performing lock-ons on the mysterious aircraft flying a bit too close to the border.
Even thought Ankara has said it is not willing to have its aircraft harassed again and won’t accept other violations, nothing at the moment suggests any shot down occurred in the last few days.
The TuAF has never been too “shy” about its military operations air-to-air victories and losses. In Sept. 2013, a TuAF F-16 shot down a Syrian Mi-17 that had violated the Turkish airspace.
On Mar. 23, 2014 a SyAAF Mig-23 that had violated the Turkish airspace by about 1 km was hit by an AIM-120 AMRAAM (Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile) fired by a TuAF F-16C in Combat Air Patrol near the border: a victory celebrated with the kill markings on the F-16C 91-008.
Considered that no wreckage has been found, no official protest’s been filed and that, unlike the past, there has been no official statement about any downing by the Turkish authorities, it’s safe to say that no aircraft was shot down, at least not so far.
http://theaviationist.com/2015/10/12/no-russian-aircraft-shot-down-over-syria/
pmaitra
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Akim
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John - it's just John. The names are not translated. You can not put a name - Jean? I do not lengvist do not know the rules. CIA translates ЦРУ. But NATO does not translate literally (НАТО). New York does not translate as Новый Йорк, though New England translate literally Новая Англия.
pmaitra
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Russia Is On the Cusp of Regaining Global Power
Oil and Middle East politics combine to afford Russia a chance to resume a position it lost at the collapse of the USSR
(German Economic News) | Russia Insider
Russia’s back
This article originally appeared in German Economic News. Translated from the German by Susan Neumann
Vladimir Putin has chosen the timing of his intervention in Syria very skillfully. Through his operations in the Middle East, he has the chance to make Russia a world power again. This game is all about the price of oil, and Putin knows: the hand that turns the oil spigot has the last word in all geopolitical issues.
Russia’s intervention in Syria as a means to fight terrorism is only a superficial goal. Unlike the Americans, the Russians calculate their actions with prudence; not just militarily, but geopolitically as well.
Russia has long since been a partner of Syria. Syria is an important bridgehead to the Middle East, particularly with regard to transport routes for raw materials. Originally, the Americans wanted to have the Russians cut off from these routes, but the shot backfired. The US Army refused to follow President Barack Obama.
So in going after Assad, the Americans had to join the front with unpredictable mercenaries and terrorists. The only partner to the US was Turkey, but Turkey chose to pursue its own self-interests. The terrorists, in turn, were happy with the weapons they’d captured – and used them against the Americans, when necessary. Washington had accepted the formation of IS [ISIL/ISIS/Daesh] in the beginning. The Americans had hoped to use this war machine to topple Assad.
At the same time, the neocons, who are behind the US strategy, tried to keep the Russians occupied with Ukraine. Through the expansion of fracking, they had hoped to establish an alternative to crude oil in the US and in Ukraine, possibly even in the EU. That, however, turned out to be a long, hard road. The fracking method is expensive and can only be financed through taxpayer money. The fracking companies were far away from any profit-earnings; stock prices plunged.
This is the moment Putin seems to have been waiting for, because Russia was hit hard by the price decline that OPEC had instrumentally used to ward off fracking. The implementation of skillful monetary policy helped to ease the pain – i.e. strong dollar, weak ruble – but the dependence on commodity exports is Russia’s Achilles heel. During the Yeltsin years, in a trusted play between the US neo-cons and some willing oligarchs, the country was looted for all it was worth. No government has managed to diversify the Russian economy. The new commodity shock is extremely dangerous for Russia.
The first developments in oil prices proved Putin right. The price rose after the intervention in Syria was started.
The commodity analyst Dallas McEndree has a very interesting analysis on Oilprice.com:
Energy is the foundation of Russia, its economy, its government, and its political system. Putin has often stressed the importance of mineral resources for the preservation of Russia’s economic growth and industrial development. Mineral resources are needed to help Russia catch up to the more developed economies and for modernizing Russia’s military, and their defense industry.
Since 1992, the correlation between GDP growth on the one hand and the production of oil and gas, exports and prices on the other has been clearly evident. Russia’s oil and natural gas are not just important for Russia, but for its Eurasian neighbors as well. In 2014, Russia supplied about 30 percent of Europe’s gas and a quarter of its crude oil in 2013.
Besides the raw materials themselves, Russia’s well-developed ground infrastructure for the distribution of these resources is of great importance to Russia. Tatiana Mitrova, Head of the Oil and Gas Department in the Energy Research Instituteof theRussian AcademyofSciences (ERI RAS), reckons: “Russia has a unique, transcontinental infrastructure in the heart of Eurasia (150,000 km of pipelines), which makes it the backbone of a vast and developing Eurasian gas market.
The control over both the means of transport as well as the gas reserves makes Russia the pivotal center of this new market.” The land-based oil-distribution network is small, but not insignificant. The 4000-kilometer-long Druzhba Pipeline, for example, covers about 30 percent of total deliveries to Europe. The Russian government is keen on furthering the development of this infrastructure, and has already introduced a number of pipeline projects.
The threats to the Russian energy sector have intensified more and more in recent years and the revenues that Russia is able to draw from the business are under severe pressure. The decision of Saudi Arabia to let the market determine the prices has led to sharp drops in the prices of crude oil and petroleum. The export prices are also affected, which in turn, are what is partly responsible for the switch to hybrid pricing models for gas in Europe.
The charts show how threatening the situation is:
The sanctions ordered by the US against Russia have increased the pressure. Due to the sanctions, Russian energy projects receive no financial backing, nor can projects be supported through the delivery of technology or equipment. On top of that, the US and Canada have already established themselves as strong competitors in oil and gas production, as McEndree has analyzed.
It was therefore necessary for Putin to act. He managed to persuade the rebels in the eastern Ukraine to keep quiet. Recently, they have even canceled the regional elections – brokered by Putin. Lucky for Putin, the EU-funded Kiev government is corrupt and argues mainly about which pockets the EU taxpayers’ money should be flowing into. The EU has to finance the Greek debt at the same time, and is busy dealing with the refugees, therefore neither Germany nor France have an interest in escalating the conditions in Ukraine. They simply can’t afford it.
The third aspect is the issue of the US elections. Obama is a lame duck - and perhaps that is why he’s the only one in Washington who’s still somewhat sane. Obama knows that the military involvement in Syria was a disaster. Obama doesn’t want to go down in history as the president who threw the Middle East and Europe into total chaos.
Obama is therefore willing to cooperate with Putin and is glad that he is there to pull his chestnuts out of the fire for him. The Neocons are in an uproar, but can’t do much. The advantage of the military-industrial complex is in this case, the fact that Obama is the commander-in-chief. The neocons and NATO can’t do much more than bark.
Putin’s alliances with Iraq, Iran, and especially with China are proof of a certain foresight. With partners like these, Russia can play a leading role in the Middle East. By wisely looking ahead, Putin was also able to involve Israel. Above all, Putin might succeed in breaking OPEC’s power hold. This is directed primarily against Saudi Arabia. The Saudis themselves are busy at the moment with the generation change and are going in a direction so that the young sheikhs can distinguish themselves with an illegal war against Yemen. This occupies a lot of forces and serves to divert their attention.
McEndree has precisely analyzed this aspect in Putin’s strategy:
The question remains to be clarified as to whether the developments in the Middle East could save the Russian energy market. Tensions there are usually linked to the security of transport routes for raw materials. The Middle East itself is primarily dependent on sea transport. Since all waterways include a geographical bottleneck, they are far more vulnerable to external threats than the pipelines used by Russia. By expanding the airbases in Syria, Russia could influence these pathways.
Putin’s action has significantly strengthened Russia’s influence on OPEC. Russia already has close ties with Iran and Venezuela, and soon possibly with Iraq. These countries stand against Saudi Arabia’s decision on oil prices. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Policy noted that OPEC members are now suffering from the effects of their own strategy to edge out rivals by flooding the market, and doubts that OPEC members would be really satisfied with long-term low oil prices.
Russia could indeed succeed in splitting OPEC into two blocks, and thus isolating Saudi Arabia. A strategic alliance between Putin and Iran, as well as Putin and Iraq, could create even more opportunities for Russia to put pressure on Saudi Arabia. For one thing, they could test Saudi determination to defend its market. Secondly, by cooperating with Iran and Iraq, one could take over Saudi market shares in the Chinese market. The Chinese market will be the second largest import market, and with its ever-growing demand, it will be of even greater interest to all parties in the next few years.
So thanks to his impeccable timing, Putin could achieve far more than just a military prestige victory over the Americans. Turkey, led by an opportunistic and unscrupulous Erdogan, will quickly bring Putin to its side. The Turkish Stream project is underway. Current delays are not very important; they’re Putin’s threats against Erdogan. So far, Putin hasn’t said anything about Erdogan’s private war against the Kurds. He’s pleased that Erdogan is preoccupied with the Kurds and doesn’t have any corresponding interests with the Americans.
The EU won’t budge. It is now totally dependent on the Russian supply of energy. If Russia controls the Middle East, the talks with the EU will all of the sudden become very constructive for the following reason: there will be two partners sitting at the table for these energy imports with Russia and Iran, and the chaotic EU leadership will be hopelessly secondary.
McEndree thinks Putin would have to consider his actions carefully, so as not to arouse the fear of total energy dependence on Russia in Europe. The risk is negligible, because most of the EU’s fears are currently centered on the refugees, and they will pay any price to get the issue off the table. Erdogan has already flexed his muscles in Brussels. Once Putin pacifies Syria, he’ll be welcomed with open arms.
If the plan works, Russia could actually break up OPEC and thus win access to the oil price. It’s not possible for Russia to exist with a long term low gas price. A not-to-be-underestimated danger for Putin is the recent warning of the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. He said with unusual clarity that drastic regulations for oil and gas products could happen very suddenly. That would hit Russia hard.
Granted, it wouldn’t hit Russia in the short term, but it could redirect the flow of capital into alternative energy sources. Russia is too weak to stop this sort of attack. The alliance with China could pay off here. China has created a new level of infrastructure projects with the aid of the new Investment Bank AIIB and the Silk Road Project.
McEndree writes, “All of these options require successful cooperation with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. This is not completely guaranteed in light of the Ukraine crisis.”
That’s true, but if Putin wins this battle, he has at least a fair chance to have Russia taken seriously as a world power. Big talk coming from the US or the EU is not enough, because what matters in the foreseeable future is this: the hand that turns the global oil spigot has the last word.
Oil and Middle East politics combine to afford Russia a chance to resume a position it lost at the collapse of the USSR
(German Economic News) | Russia Insider
Russia’s back
This article originally appeared in German Economic News. Translated from the German by Susan Neumann
Vladimir Putin has chosen the timing of his intervention in Syria very skillfully. Through his operations in the Middle East, he has the chance to make Russia a world power again. This game is all about the price of oil, and Putin knows: the hand that turns the oil spigot has the last word in all geopolitical issues.
Russia’s intervention in Syria as a means to fight terrorism is only a superficial goal. Unlike the Americans, the Russians calculate their actions with prudence; not just militarily, but geopolitically as well.
Russia has long since been a partner of Syria. Syria is an important bridgehead to the Middle East, particularly with regard to transport routes for raw materials. Originally, the Americans wanted to have the Russians cut off from these routes, but the shot backfired. The US Army refused to follow President Barack Obama.
So in going after Assad, the Americans had to join the front with unpredictable mercenaries and terrorists. The only partner to the US was Turkey, but Turkey chose to pursue its own self-interests. The terrorists, in turn, were happy with the weapons they’d captured – and used them against the Americans, when necessary. Washington had accepted the formation of IS [ISIL/ISIS/Daesh] in the beginning. The Americans had hoped to use this war machine to topple Assad.
At the same time, the neocons, who are behind the US strategy, tried to keep the Russians occupied with Ukraine. Through the expansion of fracking, they had hoped to establish an alternative to crude oil in the US and in Ukraine, possibly even in the EU. That, however, turned out to be a long, hard road. The fracking method is expensive and can only be financed through taxpayer money. The fracking companies were far away from any profit-earnings; stock prices plunged.
This is the moment Putin seems to have been waiting for, because Russia was hit hard by the price decline that OPEC had instrumentally used to ward off fracking. The implementation of skillful monetary policy helped to ease the pain – i.e. strong dollar, weak ruble – but the dependence on commodity exports is Russia’s Achilles heel. During the Yeltsin years, in a trusted play between the US neo-cons and some willing oligarchs, the country was looted for all it was worth. No government has managed to diversify the Russian economy. The new commodity shock is extremely dangerous for Russia.
The first developments in oil prices proved Putin right. The price rose after the intervention in Syria was started.
The commodity analyst Dallas McEndree has a very interesting analysis on Oilprice.com:
Energy is the foundation of Russia, its economy, its government, and its political system. Putin has often stressed the importance of mineral resources for the preservation of Russia’s economic growth and industrial development. Mineral resources are needed to help Russia catch up to the more developed economies and for modernizing Russia’s military, and their defense industry.
Since 1992, the correlation between GDP growth on the one hand and the production of oil and gas, exports and prices on the other has been clearly evident. Russia’s oil and natural gas are not just important for Russia, but for its Eurasian neighbors as well. In 2014, Russia supplied about 30 percent of Europe’s gas and a quarter of its crude oil in 2013.
Besides the raw materials themselves, Russia’s well-developed ground infrastructure for the distribution of these resources is of great importance to Russia. Tatiana Mitrova, Head of the Oil and Gas Department in the Energy Research Instituteof theRussian AcademyofSciences (ERI RAS), reckons: “Russia has a unique, transcontinental infrastructure in the heart of Eurasia (150,000 km of pipelines), which makes it the backbone of a vast and developing Eurasian gas market.
The control over both the means of transport as well as the gas reserves makes Russia the pivotal center of this new market.” The land-based oil-distribution network is small, but not insignificant. The 4000-kilometer-long Druzhba Pipeline, for example, covers about 30 percent of total deliveries to Europe. The Russian government is keen on furthering the development of this infrastructure, and has already introduced a number of pipeline projects.
The threats to the Russian energy sector have intensified more and more in recent years and the revenues that Russia is able to draw from the business are under severe pressure. The decision of Saudi Arabia to let the market determine the prices has led to sharp drops in the prices of crude oil and petroleum. The export prices are also affected, which in turn, are what is partly responsible for the switch to hybrid pricing models for gas in Europe.
The charts show how threatening the situation is:
The sanctions ordered by the US against Russia have increased the pressure. Due to the sanctions, Russian energy projects receive no financial backing, nor can projects be supported through the delivery of technology or equipment. On top of that, the US and Canada have already established themselves as strong competitors in oil and gas production, as McEndree has analyzed.
It was therefore necessary for Putin to act. He managed to persuade the rebels in the eastern Ukraine to keep quiet. Recently, they have even canceled the regional elections – brokered by Putin. Lucky for Putin, the EU-funded Kiev government is corrupt and argues mainly about which pockets the EU taxpayers’ money should be flowing into. The EU has to finance the Greek debt at the same time, and is busy dealing with the refugees, therefore neither Germany nor France have an interest in escalating the conditions in Ukraine. They simply can’t afford it.
The third aspect is the issue of the US elections. Obama is a lame duck - and perhaps that is why he’s the only one in Washington who’s still somewhat sane. Obama knows that the military involvement in Syria was a disaster. Obama doesn’t want to go down in history as the president who threw the Middle East and Europe into total chaos.
Obama is therefore willing to cooperate with Putin and is glad that he is there to pull his chestnuts out of the fire for him. The Neocons are in an uproar, but can’t do much. The advantage of the military-industrial complex is in this case, the fact that Obama is the commander-in-chief. The neocons and NATO can’t do much more than bark.
Putin’s alliances with Iraq, Iran, and especially with China are proof of a certain foresight. With partners like these, Russia can play a leading role in the Middle East. By wisely looking ahead, Putin was also able to involve Israel. Above all, Putin might succeed in breaking OPEC’s power hold. This is directed primarily against Saudi Arabia. The Saudis themselves are busy at the moment with the generation change and are going in a direction so that the young sheikhs can distinguish themselves with an illegal war against Yemen. This occupies a lot of forces and serves to divert their attention.
McEndree has precisely analyzed this aspect in Putin’s strategy:
The question remains to be clarified as to whether the developments in the Middle East could save the Russian energy market. Tensions there are usually linked to the security of transport routes for raw materials. The Middle East itself is primarily dependent on sea transport. Since all waterways include a geographical bottleneck, they are far more vulnerable to external threats than the pipelines used by Russia. By expanding the airbases in Syria, Russia could influence these pathways.
Putin’s action has significantly strengthened Russia’s influence on OPEC. Russia already has close ties with Iran and Venezuela, and soon possibly with Iraq. These countries stand against Saudi Arabia’s decision on oil prices. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Policy noted that OPEC members are now suffering from the effects of their own strategy to edge out rivals by flooding the market, and doubts that OPEC members would be really satisfied with long-term low oil prices.
Russia could indeed succeed in splitting OPEC into two blocks, and thus isolating Saudi Arabia. A strategic alliance between Putin and Iran, as well as Putin and Iraq, could create even more opportunities for Russia to put pressure on Saudi Arabia. For one thing, they could test Saudi determination to defend its market. Secondly, by cooperating with Iran and Iraq, one could take over Saudi market shares in the Chinese market. The Chinese market will be the second largest import market, and with its ever-growing demand, it will be of even greater interest to all parties in the next few years.
So thanks to his impeccable timing, Putin could achieve far more than just a military prestige victory over the Americans. Turkey, led by an opportunistic and unscrupulous Erdogan, will quickly bring Putin to its side. The Turkish Stream project is underway. Current delays are not very important; they’re Putin’s threats against Erdogan. So far, Putin hasn’t said anything about Erdogan’s private war against the Kurds. He’s pleased that Erdogan is preoccupied with the Kurds and doesn’t have any corresponding interests with the Americans.
The EU won’t budge. It is now totally dependent on the Russian supply of energy. If Russia controls the Middle East, the talks with the EU will all of the sudden become very constructive for the following reason: there will be two partners sitting at the table for these energy imports with Russia and Iran, and the chaotic EU leadership will be hopelessly secondary.
McEndree thinks Putin would have to consider his actions carefully, so as not to arouse the fear of total energy dependence on Russia in Europe. The risk is negligible, because most of the EU’s fears are currently centered on the refugees, and they will pay any price to get the issue off the table. Erdogan has already flexed his muscles in Brussels. Once Putin pacifies Syria, he’ll be welcomed with open arms.
If the plan works, Russia could actually break up OPEC and thus win access to the oil price. It’s not possible for Russia to exist with a long term low gas price. A not-to-be-underestimated danger for Putin is the recent warning of the Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. He said with unusual clarity that drastic regulations for oil and gas products could happen very suddenly. That would hit Russia hard.
Granted, it wouldn’t hit Russia in the short term, but it could redirect the flow of capital into alternative energy sources. Russia is too weak to stop this sort of attack. The alliance with China could pay off here. China has created a new level of infrastructure projects with the aid of the new Investment Bank AIIB and the Silk Road Project.
McEndree writes, “All of these options require successful cooperation with Syria, Iraq, and Iran. This is not completely guaranteed in light of the Ukraine crisis.”
That’s true, but if Putin wins this battle, he has at least a fair chance to have Russia taken seriously as a world power. Big talk coming from the US or the EU is not enough, because what matters in the foreseeable future is this: the hand that turns the global oil spigot has the last word.
