p2prada
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Our current capital outlay is not fixed. More can be allocated depending on the situation as told by FM.This year, Indias capital outlay is 15 billion USD.
to reach anywhere between 100 to 150 billion/year by 2020 we will require 26 to 33% compounded annual growth. Nominal GDP with that kind of growth should be more than 10 trillion USD.
120 billion for next three years is quite ambitious. What does 120 billion include after all?, are you considering about weapons at present prices? in that case even the 750 billion dollar estimate upto 2020 is ambitious.
$120B in 3 years may be a bit too much though. Perhaps I should have said total defence expenditure instead of only acquisitions.
However by 2020, that kind of nominal GDP is quite achievable. China has consistently grown at more than 25% from 2000 to 2006 in terms of nominal GDP and slightly lesser until 2008 when Yuan become 6 to a dollar. Real GDP however is calculated differently.
At our current growth rate, our economy should double every 5 or 6 years. That's $5-6Trillion by 2020 with today's exchange rate. If exchange rate ratio has a 50% difference by then, then the nominal GDP should double that to $10-12 Trillion, maybe more if we are forced to have a ratio similar to Yuan and Dollar today.
At the same rate, China is expected to overtake US economy by 2020 with a $20Trillion economy, perhaps much higher if the Yuan is forced to equalize with Euro or Dollar which would mean a 6 times rise in nominal GDP for China, which would further mean the Chinese economy will be a $50Trillion+ economy by 2020, all this without taking inflation into account. A 10% growth and higher for both countries has been predicted until 2020. Calculating Nominally has a lot of drawbacks compared to PPP.