Pakistani PoV, understanding how Pak intelligentsia sees the world and itself.

[LETHALFORCE]

I wonder how Obama plans to win the afghan war with pakistan as a ally??

 

[Daredevil]

There has to happen something dramatic for US to win or lose war in Afghanistan. Either it could be by dumping pakistan or by getting stuck in Af-pak (fak-ap) quagmire forever.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

so far the strategy has not been successful and Obama's strategy of not entering Pakistan to pursue insurgents will also fail, and Pakistani supply route alternatives have also been found so what does USA need pakistan any longer for? a multi nation NATO coalition fighting against one of the poorest , countries in the world and after 7 years still no results, why???

 

[Daredevil]

so far the strategy has not been successful and Obama's strategy of not entering Pakistan to pursue insurgents will also fail, and Pakistani supply route alternatives have also been found so what does USA need pakistan any longer for? a multi nation NATO coalition fighting against one of the poorest , countries in the world and after 7 years still no results, why???

Closing down the sanctuaries of Taliban in the mountains of Pakistan. The only choice, once the alternate route is found, will be to blanket bombing of the mountains. But do americans have the gall to do it?. Another choice will be careful, painful and laborious civilian reconstruction and reeducation of brainwashed population in Afghanistan and Pakistan. You pick.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Closing down the sanctuaries of Taliban in the mountains of Pakistan. The only choice, once the alternate route is found, will be to blanket bombing of the mountains. But do americans have the gall to do it?. Another choice will be careful, painful and laborious civilian reconstruction and reeducation of brainwashed population in Afghanistan and Pakistan. You pick.

Obama will not make any bold moves against the taliban, appeasement seems to be the route he is taking, Obama is not a leader who can win a war even a small one against a pathetic country like Afghanistan, so far all the high tech NATO weaponry has failed and now bribery of Pakistan is failing so what options are left???

 

[Daredevil]

^^LF sir, then only choice that will be left for US/NATO is accept the defeat and go home. Will a super power like America swallow the humble pie and accept the defeat?. Doesn't that make it lose its present standing as an unchallenged power in the world?. Well, only time will tell the answers to these questions.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

^^LF sir, then only choice that will be left for US/NATO is accept the defeat and go home. Will a super power like America swallow the humble pie and accept the defeat?. Doesn't that make it lose its present standing as an unchallenged power in the world?. Well, only time will tell the answers to these questions.

this is a very real possibility if things don't start improving soon, looks like Russia and China will be happy.

 

[Flint]

Simplistic piece.

 

[SATISH]

this is a very real possibility if things don't start improving soon, looks like Russia and China will be happy.

China might be.....but Russia i suspect wont be happy. We are already joining hands with Iran and Russia for a containment plan if Americans leave. And Chinese also think these fanatics must be destroyed. Or it will be like they are strengthening their own band of terrorists.

 

[Singh]

Article doesn't really provide solid arguments in favour, and India dusts off and moves along after a nuclear strike ? :s

 

[Su-47]

this is a very real possibility if things don't start improving soon, looks like Russia and China will be happy.

If they have any idea of taliban's long term goals, they won't be happy. Taliban doesn't need a reason to attack anyone. If USA leaves, soon they will turn on Afghanistan's neighbors. They already hate Russia, and will soon join up with the Chechen rebels and start a jihad against Russia. Also, they may China's Uighur Muslim discrimination as an excuse to launch a Jihad against China. They hate Iran for being Shia, so they may even attack Iran. And of course, a Jihad in Kashmir is also likely, especially if Pak joins hands with taliban (the ordinary people in pak will suffer, but some in military will be happy if this happens).

So basically if Taliban wins, everybody else loses. So its in the interest of India, China, Russia, Iran, and of course, the ordinary people of Pakistan, that USA wins this war.

 

[F-14]

Article doesn't really provide solid arguments in favour, and India dusts off and moves along after a nuclear strike ? :s

I think he ment that India has enough stratagic depth to withstand a Pakistani Nuke attack but pakistanis font have the same :2guns:

 

[Yusuf]

I think he ment that India has enough stratagic depth to withstand a Pakistani Nuke attack but pakistanis font have the same :2guns:

Any loss of Indian life is unacceptable, and surely no mass loss in a nuclear strike. So no, we cannot withstand a nuke strike and we will ensure all means to thwart any such attack on India.

 

[Su-47]

I think he ment that India has enough stratagic depth to withstand a Pakistani Nuke attack but pakistanis font have the same :2guns:

Still a very stupid statement to make. India as a nation will survive, but our economy will be left in shambles. The survivors will be left in squalor and poverty, as most economic centers will be reduced to rubble.

We maybe able to recover (japan recovered after two nukes) but it will take time, and during that time, life in india will be very pathetic.

 

[Auberon]

Still a very stupid statement to make. India as a nation will survive, but our economy will be left in shambles. The survivors will be left in squalor and poverty, as most economic centers will be reduced to rubble.

We maybe able to recover (japan recovered after two nukes) but it will take time, and during that time, life in india will be very pathetic.

The important economic and strategic targets will be very well protected, it ll be extremely difficult for an aircraft or missile to slip in. The second rung of targets are more likely to be gunned for. As such, we ll certainly be affected deeply and rehabilitation of millions will slump us down but considering the population, scattering of industry etc., we wont be left in rubbled squalor and the recovery period will be much smaller than is being projected. Pakistan on the other hand will be annihilated in case of such an exchange, not that am advocating such an exchange and our No First Use policy certainly exemplifies this, but I can see where the writer is coming from.

 

[Rage]

Sufi’s son Kifayatullah killed during shelling in lower Dir

Sufi’s son killed as fierce clashes in Dir continue

Thursday, 07 May, 2009 | 05:50 PM PST |

Following this event, it is uncertain how the TNSM chief will react,
making the future of the peace deal highly sketchy. — AP/File photo


TIMERGARA: A son of TNSM chief Maulana Sufi Mohammad was among several militants killed in fierce clashes with security forces in Maidan and Chakdara on Thursday.

Maulana Kifayatullah and his brother-in-law were killed when a mortar shell hit the latter’s house in the Darro village of Maidan.

Kifayatullah, according to his family sources, had gone to Darro to evacuate his in-laws who were trapped there. Kifayatullah, the eldest son of Sufi Mohammad, had been teaching Arabic in a government school for 21 years.

His colleagues in the education department told Dawn that he had nothing to do with the TNSM or the Taliban.

His younger brother Rizwanullah termed it a target killing and said the house of Sufi Mohammad’s relatives had been hit for a second time.

Sufi Mohammad and his wife, who were in Amandara, were not informed about the death of their son and the TNSM chief could not attend the funeral because, according to his aides, he was not well.

Security forces pounded militants’ hideouts as fierce clashes continued in Kumbar, Darro and Zimdar areas of Maidan. Local people said the Taliban attacked troops in Kumbar bazaar and an exchange of fire continued for several hours.
Security forces claimed to have killed and injured several militants, but local Taliban commander Miftahuddin told Dawn on phone that they were offering stiff resistance and killed 12 FC personnel.

Sources said that Naik Adalat Khan, Naik Imran and Sepoy Firoz of the FC were injured when an improvised explosive device went off under their tank in Kumbar.

Non-combatants Gul Mula and Shah Zeb were injured when shells fired from Timergara hit a mosque during Isha prayers in Hayaserai.

Local people said the militants blew up the headquarters of Dir Levies in Chakdara after having occupied it following a heavy exchange of fire.

They kidnapped 11 Levies personnel, including Subedar Major Noor Hakeem, Subedar Riqatyar and sepoys Rahim, Sher Zalam, Waheedur Rehman, Noor Mohammad, Shakirullah, Khursheed and Bakht Munir.

The sources said that paramilitary soldiers Amjad, Afsar Ali and Amin were killed while Capt Khaliq and Lt Maaz and soldiers Majid, Arshad, Amir Abbas, Ismael, Sharif, Mumtaz and Yaqoob were injured in the gunbattle.

Official sources said the militants had taken away several bodies of their colleagues because blood stains were spotted in Shawa Khwar near the fort where militants had taken position.

Reports reaching here said that hundreds of families had left Chakdara, Gulabad, Gaddar and Warsak areas for safe places.

Helicopter gunships shelled Chakdara Khwar and Gulabad areas where militants have taken positions and set up a checkpost. There were no reports of casualties.

Two militants were reportedly killed in a clash in Gandigar, about 20km from dir, after they attacked a police station with heavy weapons early on Thursday. Policemen Khalid, Liaqat and Javed were injured.

The SHO of the police station said the militants had used rockets, hand-grenades and Kalashnikovs. DPO Ijaz Ahmad told newsmen that two militants were killed and three others were injured.

Hundreds of people from Sultankhel and Paindakhel rushed to Gandigar and condemned the attack. They vowed to track down the perpetrators and punish them.


DAWN.COM | Pakistan | Sufi?s son killed as fierce clashes in Dir continue

 

[Rage]

Discussion on the potential fallout of the killing of Sufi Mohammad's son Kifaytullah on the Peace Deal and on the ongoing pakistani offensive here.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

this comes at a time when zardari is in US trying to prove that he is still in control and of use to the US and that he can still deliver on their interests in pakistan and so this attack. there have been reports doing circles that this has been third such attack by the pak army in the last 10days on the family members of sufi mohammad. for the moment i will not read too much into this and will keep this as one off incident because from past experiences one realises that there is always some action that happens in these ungoverned areas when ever some high profile dignitary of the GoP is in US trying to prove his credentials. for the past month or so there has been eminence pressure being built on the GoP to deliver on countering the threat of taliban which very likely can take over islamabad and the nukes of that country the worst nightmare for the US. the one change that one can see coming with the obama administration is that US has stopped doing personality worship like what was happening during bush era and this makes the present GoP extremely jittery more so zardari who thought he could pull off a mushrraf on obama. zardari must be feeling the unease further since the news of US wooing nawaz sharif just in case zardari looses his utility in eyes of the US.


for a moment one reflects then one wonders what a mess pakistanis have created and all the so called talk of sovereignty is a complete farce. they had a president who remained a dictator for 9 years and when he was found to be loosing support in his country the puppet master (USA) pulled him off and got in zardari, now that the puppet master feels NS can do a better job so ground is being prepared for his entry to the center stage, then when he would have outlived his utility then probably the puppet master will get a coup done and once that dictator becomes a waste then probably another coup will be orchestrated at the behest of puppet master or may be another dream run for the so called democratic governments will start. since pakistan is a rent state and their affairs are run in some room in white house/ pentagon, why doesnt the US allows india to run their affairs since we are known to be the only country to have done extremely well in a neighborhood which has a concept of churning out failed nations, failed ideologies and failed people. it wont be that bad an idea to have pakistan as a client state, as it is as we grow economically we can always dish out a few goodies for them.

 

[nitesh]

In Pakistan we have seen lot of dead people re appearing. Some important person dead in such easy way? Not possible at all. Seems like a charade to show they are serious about war. Once they get the money the person will come out from underground.

 

[Daredevil]

Pakistan's internal security

PAKISTAN'S INTERNAL SECURITY

By B.Raman

Mizoram in India's North-East is a peaceful and prosperous State. It has a total area of about 21087 sq.kms with 21 major hill ranges or peaks. A very difficult terrain for an army to carry out a successful counter-insurgency operation. Its population was estimated at 8,91,058 in 2001.

2.Mizoram was not a peaceful region before 1986. It was one of the most troubled regions of India. In February,1966, an ethnic separatist organisation called the Mizo National Front (MNF) overran the entire State in a series of simultaneous and surprise attacks and captured even Aizawl, its capital. The Indian Government and its security forces lost control of Mizoram almost as completely as the Pakistani security forces have now lost control of Swat, which has an area of only 1772 Sq.Kms with a population estimated at 1.5 million in 1998.

3. It took the Government of India and its security forces 20 years to reestablish the Government's writ over the State by making it clear to the MNF that violence would not pay and by reaching a political solution on the future of the Mizo people, which would enable them to remain a part of India with considerable political and economic rights.

4.The counter-insurgency operations carried out by the Indian security forces in Mizoram are considered a model for others to learn from and emulate. It has today India's leading counter-insurgency school and even the US sends its military officers to the school to learn from India's success in dealing with the insurgency.

5. The Swat District of the North-West Frontier Province of Pakistan came under the virtual total control of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) in 2007. The hilly terrain in Swat is somewhat similar to that in Mizoram The area affected by the TNSM insurgency is much smaller than the affected area in Mizoram.

6. The MNF movement was an ethnic separatist movement. The TNSM movement is a religious fundamentalist movement. Apart from this, there was another major difference between Mizoram and Swat. The Mizos constituted a small number of people confined to Mizoram. They had to fight against the Indian security forces unaided by other non-Mizo tribal groups in the region. The tribals of Swat are part of the Pashtun tribe, which is spread over a vast area in the Pashtun belt across the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. They are not fighting alone against the Pakistani security forces. They are supported by the Pashtuns in the surrounding areas.

7. It should not, therefore, be a matter of surprise that the Pakistani security forces have been facing considerable difficulties in countering their activities.The dimensions of the Mizo insurgency were much smaller as compared to the dimensions of the problem caused for the Pakistani security forces by the Pakistani Taliban called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), of which the TNSM is a part. Morewover, there was no sympathy for the Mizos in the Indian security forces fighting against them. There is considerable sympathy for the TNSM and the TTP among the Pakistani para-military forces.

8. Despite the much less serious dimensions of the Mizo insurgency, we took 20 years to prevail over it. It would be unreasonable to expect the Pakistani security forces to prevail over the TNSM and the TTP in a matter of months. The counter-insurgency operations---even if they are carried out sincerely by the Pakistani security forces--- are going to take a long time and there is no point for the international community in being impatient with Pakistan. The important point is the sincerity of the Pakistani security forces in wanting to defeat the Taliban and not the time taken by them for doing so. The international community is worried not by the time taken by the Pakistani security forces, but by the evidence of their insincerity. It finds it difficult to avoid the impression that the counter-insurgency operations against the the TNSM and the TTP are more shadow-boxing than real and that the heart of the Pakistani security forces is not in it.

9. At the time we carried out our counter-insurgency operations in Mizoram the international community was hardly interested in it. No nuclear factor was involved. There was no trans-national dimension of the problem except the Pakistani assistance to the MNF. There was no Al Qaeda waiting to exploit the situation to further its own agenda. We had a two-point strategy--- a campaign of attrition against the MNF and removing the MNF sanctuaries in the then East Pakistan by supporting the movement for an independent Bangladesh. The insurgency in Mizoram is a telling example of how an insurgent or terrorist movement withers away when it no longer has external sanctuaries and the covert support of intelligence organisations.

10. The circumstances in Pakistan today are totally different. The nuclear factor due to Pakistan having a nuclear capability of uncertain safety, the trans-national dimension of the Taliban phenomenon and its linkages with Al Qaeda have made the counter-insurgency operations against the TNSM and the TTP a matter of serious concern to the entire international community.

11. The perceived lack of seriousness and sincerity in the political and military leaderships of Pakistan in dealing with this problem have given rise to apocalyptic fears of what could happen in the coming months. These fears are natural, even if they ultimately turn out to be exaggerated as asserted by the Pakistani authorities.

12.It is important for the imternational community---particularly for the US which has a greater presence and influence in Pakistan than any other Western country--- to closely monitor the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorist operations in Pakistan against the TTP, the Neo Taliban of Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and other Punjabi terrorist organisations in order to ensure that Pakistan does what is expected of it by the international community.

13. How to monitor continuously without giving the impression that the US is interfering in Pakistan's internal security management and thereby adding to the anti-US anger in Pakistan? Spectacular shows, rich in photo opprtunities,such as the recent Zardari-Karzai-Obama summit are not the way. Such shows only add to the suspicions of Pakistanis and Afghans not well disposed to the US that the US is imposing on the Pakistani leadership counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism strategies designed to servre US and not Pakistani interests.

14. Officials of the Obama Administration have claimed that they have been able to convince the Pakistani leadership that it is the Taliban and Al Qaeda, which pose the threat to Pakistan and not India. They are hoping that as a result Pakistan will divert some of its forces from the Indian border to the Taliban-infected areas. This is good, if it turns out to be true, though I have my skepticism. Even if this comes about, that alone is not going to lead to more successful counter-insurgency operations.

15.Since the two countries became independent in 1947, the Indian Army has evolved into a multi-terrain, multi-target, multi-role army. The Pakistan Army has remained static in a single-terrain, single-target, single-role model. The Indian Army can fight against the Pakistan Army in the plains of Punjab and in the glaciers of Siachen, against the Chinese Army in the forbidding heights of the Himalayas and against insurgents and terrorists in the hills as well as the plains. The Pakistan Army feels comfortable only in the plains of Punjab. Outside the plains of Punjab, it feels like a fish out of water. It is unable to perceive the threats that could arise from insurgents, terrorists and other non-State actors with the same seriousness as India, the US and other countries do because the insurgents and terrorists have been its live-in companions.

16.To enable the Pakistani security forces acquire a multi-terrain, multi-target, multi-role capability is going to take years.There is going to be no quick end to the internal security problems faced by Pakistan.

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: [email protected] )


Pakistan's Internal Security