It's only a matter a time before Tejas is exported. Not many alternatives to it. Jf17 has faulty russian engine ( a maintenance nightmare) and chinese avionics band weaponary which remains questionable .
Gripen c/d doesn't exist and gripen E is very costly.
F16 is heavier and costlier .
Lca will make its own niche.
IOC & LIFT are more likely to see exports, for smaller economies that would expect low intensity conflicts (pirates or insurgents) & as light fighter for proper AFs of countries like a Malaysia. In that department LCA is miles ahead of any competition.
FOC & Mark1A would have a harder time, because they are not best in their niche. Gripen, F-16 etc. are serious contenders in the roles of light multirole fighters & unless the cost is the main deciding factor.
The biggest drawback for Tejas is the sourcing of equipment/ components from different countries.
To export one needs to clearance from the sourcing countries. The relationship between source country with India with the destination country should be good along with the good direct relationship with source to destination country.
Nigeria for example was interested for Tejas but their relationship with USA wasn't great, USA though had cleared some low tech products, had blocked sale of some high tech products to them. That led to suspicion on future non cooperation /sanctions.
Jaguar fighter jets of Nigeria which had turned permanent hanger queen too didn't help the cause.
The only hope was if India swapped Tejas with those grounded Jags. But that wasn't to be.
The F7 and Alpha Jets kept flying with Nigerian Air Force. The F7 fleet maintened by Pak technicians.
But, with Boko Haram gaining notorioty, and kidnapping of School girls, ( subsequent non retrieval of the girls for a long time) exposed the lack of preparedness and lack of platform. This tied the hands of the newly elected President Buhari. They had to select a platform to show they are serious and are procuring assets to fight back.
Thus, they chose a platform that had completed its development cycle, was sanctions proof and from a country that had provided great support to previous platform. Can you blame them for that?
Tejas uses western technology and western nations have a habit of sanctioning third world countries at the drop of a hat.
Any country which is immune to the above, is either probably rich, or have no considerable requirements. If rich, a lot of options are available. Even if it is not rich, used F16 ( replaced by F35) will spoil the market for Tejas.
We may get some LIFT or MK1/A sales. But, I don't think it will be substantial. Bangladesh order currently too is just a speculation. It might happen or might not.
One thing we need to understand is that the selection of subsystem for Tejas has been done keeping in mind the IAF and India's relationship with sourcing countries. Export is an afterthought. The export oriented LIFT version will come in 2023-2024.
If we do a comparative study then, of the subsystems used, we might come to a conclusion, as to which subsystems/ LRUs have been replaced due to cost and which due to threat of future sanctions on the buying country.
I just elaborated a while ago.
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