Israel pressures China to back Tehran sanctions

[Yusuf]

International geopolitical games are all hypocritical. It has always been that way. Big powers further their own causes and interests.

For india, the best scenario will be no consensus on a resolution which frustrates israel and they go in for strikes. So india doesn't have to choose sides. India will then off course come out with a meaningless condemnation of the strikes along with the rest of the world and thank israel for making them not chose between the two.

 

[Yusuf]

india right now does not have to make any choices. Its going to be a security council resolution and india is not in it right now. China will have to chose. It cannot abstain. So either it approves the sanctions and lose iran or veto the resolution and invite whatever the west will do. Its going to require some deft diplomacy from the chinese to keep both sides happy.

 

[johnee]

Is Iran the only source of oil for China? Besides Saudi offers to supply cheaper substitute. And many other countries also buy Iran's oil.

In my opinion other than sanctiions there're better solutions - diplomacy, negotiations and compromises . don't resort to sanctions so easily.

By the way do I have to remind Israel is the world's top suspect to hold nuke weapons?

Ohimalaya, my question was not that. When you said that China's support for Iran was not because of Iran, then I wanted to know what was the actual reason. Please tell me what according to you is the real reason for which China supports Iran.

 

[Armand2REP]

Anyhow, East Asia is CHina's backyard, and the stablity in East Asia is very important to China. so Chna has to middle in affairs here ,such as N.Korea .

However, CHina now doesn't be involved into nissues and hot spots outside East Asia at all,if its nature right to do business freely there can be assured.

the only that CHinese care outside East Asia is the nature right to do business freely.

In fact, CHina is a isolationist,extremely like USA before WW II.

Actually, CCP doesn't have much choice. If China doesn't do exactly as the US commands, they will be pegged a currency manipulator and slapped with tariffs. Their exports will collapse and with it the Chinese economy. If China votes against this resolution, Obama is going to tear up Sino-US relations.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

Actually, CCP doesn't have much choice. If China doesn't do exactly as the US commands, they will be pegged a currency manipulator and slapped with tariffs. Their exports will collapse and with it the Chinese economy. If China votes against this resolution, Obama is going to tear up Sino-US relations.

yes true, and that is what is surprising me the most about the need on part of israel to head to beijing, it is simply ridiculous as far as i am concerned because it seems the USA has china by the balls and china will have to fall in line and they will without a doubt, but then why is israel butting off to beijing?

 

[Yusuf]

Israeli help to chinese in their defense sector to sweeten the deal anyone? That's why the alibi of chinese general visiting israel to gauge israeli "capability".

 

[Armand2REP]

Israeli help to chinese in their defense sector to sweeten the deal anyone? That's why the alibi of chinese general visiting israel to gauge israeli "capability".

Nah, I don't think that is it. I think Israel is showing China that if they don't do it, their oil supply from Iran will be disrupted. All the US is looking for is a general concensus to give them impetus for other nations to slap Iran with refined petrol embargoes. China won't do that but all US wants is China not to veto it and give it tacit support. US doesn't need China to embargo Iran on petrol since all Sinopec petrol is consumed in China.

 

[Yusuf]

Embargo in refined oil will hurt india the most as it exports a lot of it. Reliance industries built a massive refinery targeting iran. Reliance is already on US hit list to ban companies that do business with iran. Reliance then said it will not be affected by any sanctions on iran. But india stands to lose on refined oil sanctions against iran

 

[amoy]

When you said that China's support for Iran was not because of Iran, then I wanted to know what was the actual reason. Please tell me what according to you is the real reason for which China supports Iran.

only my personal observation -
China doesn't support Iran's nuke program. China wants Iran to comply with resolutions through diplomacy rather than 'sanctions'.

Embargo or sanctions will hurt China economically. However, I feel (personally)
1) it's more about 'principle' that is, sanctions shall not be wielded easily before other means get exhausted. Who will be the next guy to be slapped with 'sanctions'?
2) China shall not give away her 'friends', Iran - for mutual good and regional 'balance' . Who will trust China next time if China kowtows to US?
3) China shall not yield to Obama's blackmail ( currency manipulator and trade protectionism alike). Will US stop all that even if China falls in line with US over Iran??

Israel dare not go ahead for strikes without a resolution.

If 'to keep both sides happy' is impossible China should convince Russia to support and show guts this time

 

[Armand2REP]

Embargo in refined oil will hurt india the most as it exports a lot of it. Reliance industries built a massive refinery targeting iran. Reliance is already on US hit list to ban companies that do business with iran. Reliance then said it will not be affected by any sanctions on iran. But india stands to lose on refined oil sanctions against iran

Question is, can Indian energy companies doing business in Iran afford to be blacklisted by every Western company.

 

[Yusuf]

Reliance has already issued a statement saying it will withdraw from iran if required I think. Reliance has more in stake in the US.
I think sanctioning iran is really useless. It has not helped in the past, and won't in the future. Sanctions in general has never worked. World sanctioned india in the past. It slowed india but didn't stop india.

I think israel may just well go ahead and strike iran. Even that will not completely remove iranian nuke threat. Will just slow it. But I think that would buy the rest of the world some time and off course the israelis to see what can be done next.

What a strike will do is that it will send a message to iran that israel will come after it. If the US blinks on this attack, then it means it has approved it and perhaps join israel on any future strikes if iran still does not relent. This issue has been dragging far too long and its time something did happen rather than keep the world on tenterhooks.

 

[badguy2000]

Nah, I don't think that is it. I think Israel is showing China that if they don't do it, their oil supply from Iran will be disrupted. All the US is looking for is a general concensus to give them impetus for other nations to slap Iran with refined petrol embargoes. China won't do that but all US wants is China not to veto it and give it tacit support. US doesn't need China to embargo Iran on petrol since all Sinopec petrol is consumed in China.

as long as CHina import oil Iran l, Iran would receive hard cash from China and disable any economy saction on Iran .

now, CHina is biggest trade partner of Iran and one of biggest invesor in Iran,which can prove how many economy leverage on Iran.

Frankly speaking, as long as CHina doesn't take part in the saction, any economy saction on a particular country is not available, because China can provide alternative for any industry product sanctioned by west country

 

[Armand2REP]

as long as CHina import oil Iran l, Iran would receive hard cash from China and disable any economy saction on Iran .

The embargo isn't about shutting down Iran's oil production. That would be retarded. It would skyrocket the price of crude the world over. The embargo is about shutting down imports to Iran of refined petrol.

now, CHina is biggest trade partner of Iran and one of biggest invesor in Iran,which can prove how many economy leverage on Iran.

China is free to explore all the oil it wants. The only pressure that will be asked of China is to slowdown funding of refineries in Iran.

Frankly speaking, as long as CHina doesn't take part in the saction, any economy saction on a particular country is not available, because China can provide alternative for any industry product sanctioned by west country

The embargo is on refined petrol. Iran doesn't make nearly enough so they have to import it. Kind of ironic considering how much crude they have. If you have checked the export data for China, you will see they don't export jack for refined petrol. China is too busy consuming it to afford to give some to Iran. That is why China has little importance in this embargo, all it needs is China's tacit support. If CCP is stupid, they will draw a line in the sand and Obama will put the beat-down on Chinmerica trade. Pretty big gun Obama is wielding, worth about $300 billion a year to CCP. If China is smart, they will bow to US pressure, save face and make a pretty easy decision that doesn't require them to do much of anything. Obama will then give China some breathing room on the currency debate.

 

[badguy2000]

The embargo isn't about shutting down Iran's oil production. That would be retarded. It would skyrocket the price of crude the world over. The embargo is about shutting down imports to Iran of refined petrol.



China is free to explore all the oil it wants. The only pressure that will be asked of China is to slowdown funding of refineries in Iran.



The embargo is on refined petrol. Iran doesn't make nearly enough so they have to import it. Kind of ironic considering how much crude they have. If you have checked the export data for China, you will see they don't export jack for refined petrol. China is too busy consuming it to afford to give some to Iran. That is why China has little importance in this embargo, all it needs is China's tacit support. If CCP is stupid, they will draw a line in the sand and Obama will put the beat-down on Chinmerica trade. Pretty big gun Obama is wielding, worth about $300 billion a year to CCP. If China is smart, they will bow to US pressure, save face and make a pretty easy decision that doesn't require them to do much of anything. Obama will then give China some breathing room on the currency debate.

obama is just striking an attitude.

do you really think Obama is so stupid to cut sino-USA trade?

CHina economy and USA economy are a conjoined twins. the cutoff of sino-USA trade is not only means the loss of CHinese jobs,but also means the end of Yankee's current life-style,because yankees will find their T-band can not be sold out any more .

 

[haike]

only my personal observation -
China doesn't support Iran's nuke program. China wants Iran to comply with resolutions through diplomacy rather than 'sanctions'.

Embargo or sanctions will hurt China economically. However, I feel (personally)
1) it's more about 'principle' that is, sanctions shall not be wielded easily before other means get exhausted. Who will be the next guy to be slapped with 'sanctions'?
2) China shall not give away her 'friends', Iran - for mutual good and regional 'balance' . Who will trust China next time if China kowtows to US?
3) China shall not yield to Obama's blackmail ( currency manipulator and trade protectionism alike). Will US stop all that even if China falls in line with US over Iran??

Israel dare not go ahead for strikes without a resolution.

If 'to keep both sides happy' is impossible China should convince Russia to support and show guts this time

Mostly agreed. Some further observations:

1) Israel has nothing to "pressure" China do anything, though China and Israel have relative good relationship. Both side don't want to poison it.
2) China support Iran's civil nuclear program, but not military program 'cause it against China's interest. It's kinda weird that with bunch of oil Iran wants to develop nuclear energy.
3) Iran's oil count for 12% of China's import, lose this source will certainly cause some difficulty to China, but with central asia pipeline connected to Xinjiang, China can still live with it.
4) Currency appreciation is not against China's interest, China wants to raise the rate against USD, it's just about the right time. And US gov don't won't a trade war with China by slap tax on Chinese goods, because both side will lose heavily.
So, china will keep appeal for more diplomatic efforts, urge Iran to be more clear about its purpose and cooperate with IAEA, if Iran doesn't listen, china probably will vote yes, if Iran cooperate but US still persist the sanction, china probably will veto.

 

[Armand2REP]

obama is just striking an attitude.

do you really think Obama is so stupid to cut sino-USA trade?

CHina economy and USA economy are a conjoined twins. the cutoff of sino-USA trade is not only means the loss of CHinese jobs,but also means the end of Yankee's current life-style,because yankees will find their T-band can not be sold out any more .

US Congress is pressuring Obama to act, everyone from Senators to Nobel economists are telling him to do it. The US has far less to lose by cutting China off than vis versa. All they have to do is shift imports from countries like Malaysia and Vietnam. China can't find any new markets for their products than they already have as the world is already saturated with cheap Chinese goods. US needs to stop deficit spending anyway or else they will go bankrupt, better to do it now rather than later. Cutting China off is the best the West could do for all our futures.