India's Nuclear Doctrine

[sayareakd]

I think we need to declare that with NFU our nukes should be around 100 to 500 depending on the requirements. Assuming half of the nukes get destroyed in first strike by enemy or enemies. We should have sufficent to take out enemy and his master to paralysed him, so that his dream of world leader is shattered for once and all. That will enforce peace. Plus we need to tell others that something like dead hand system.

 

[Chinmoy]

I think India already made a paradigm shift in its NFU policy when it said that it would retaliate to any kind of nuclear attack with massive retaliation, irrespective of the fact where and what extent the nuclear attack takes place.

Now in a case of Indo-Pak nuclear war, it means even if Pak uses its Nasr against our troop in its soil, our response would be massive. We would not wait for their Ababeel launch.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

NFU policy is fine only if we can give a guarantee to both our enemies that a first strike from them will not work and we have an assured second strike capability that will wipe out their countries.

This requires three things:
-large number of warheads dispersed all throughout the country. (300-400).
-Induction of long range missiles in large quantities that can target all of China
-Nuclear subs (SSBN's) always present in the water at any given time, with long range missiles.

India does not yet have any of the three. I don't know how many nukes we have, but most estimates say 120-130. Secondly, though we already have Agni 5, it has not entered service yet, and even if it has, it is not present in large numbers yet. Thirdly, 750 km range SLBM's can only deter pakistan, not china. Even 3000 km seems insufficient.

 

[Chinmoy]

NFU policy is fine only if we can give a guarantee to both our enemies that a first strike from them will not work and we have an assured second strike capability that will wipe out their countries.

This requires three things:
-large number of warheads dispersed all throughout the country. (300-400).
-Induction of long range missiles in large quantities that can target all of China
-Nuclear subs (SSBN's) always present in the water at any given time, with long range missiles.

India does not yet have any of the three. I don't know how many nukes we have, but most estimates say 120-130. Secondly, though we already have Agni 5, it has not entered service yet, and even if it has, it is not present in large numbers yet. Thirdly, 750 km range SLBM's can only deter pakistan, not china. Even 3000 km seems insufficient.

First two points of yours are already checked and be assured of that.

Only the third point is Achilles heel as of now. Moreover we are only talking of SLBM and Land based BM for nuke delivery. We have yet to touch the third leg in an efficient manner as far as I think. Mirage, Rafales, MKI are good for strike role instead of nuke delivery. We do need to look at strategic bombers for that.

But with a nascent aero industry, I am not keeping my hopes high as of now. But wish to see that leg in our armory sooner then later.

 

[kalakaar]

1. NFU does not mean that India will wait to receive the hit, It only means INDIA WILL NOT PRESS THE BUTTON FIRST.
If the systems track an incoming ballistic trajectory from a nuclear state, then India may or may not launch a nuclear strike depending on the political decision and benefit of doubt.

2. In case of strike on Indian military anywhere on the globe India retains the right to retaliate.

 

[indus]

Seems there was a pretty long thread existing on nuclear doctrine. To continue here or merge with the old one is for the Mods to decide.

@sayareakd , @Razor , @Dovah .

https://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/indias-nuclear-doctrine.28284/

 

[Chinmoy]

1. NFU does not mean that India will wait to receive the hit, It only means INDIA WILL NOT PRESS THE BUTTON FIRST.
If the systems track an incoming ballistic trajectory from a nuclear state, then India may or may not launch a nuclear strike depending on the political decision and benefit of doubt.

2. In case of strike on Indian military anywhere on the globe India retains the right to retaliate.

In first case, NFU doesn't have a meaning. When you use the tern No First Use, in case of nukes, it means you are going to use it only in case you are nuked. Launching a nuke in response of detecting a missile launch means that you are not following NFU.

But in case of India, we have already mentioned that nuke option against any non nuclear country is open if we get attacked by Biological or Chemical weapon.

 

[kalakaar]

Launching a nuke in response of detecting a missile launch means that you are not following NFU

In case China launches a missile at it's detected as BM. India will immediately deploy the BMD and carry out the retaliation.
It's China and others to understand that launching any missile towards India can lead to nuclear war. And that's how escalations are prevented and that's what real nuclear deterrence is.

 

[Razor]

Seems there was a pretty long thread existing on nuclear doctrine. To continue here or merge with the old one is for the Mods to decide.

@sayareakd , @Razor , @Dovah .

https://defenceforumindia.com/forum/threads/indias-nuclear-doctrine.28284/

Thanks.
Let it float for now, let's see if the discussion picks up, and then maybe later.

 

[Razor]

In first case, NFU doesn't have a meaning. When you use the tern No First Use, in case of nukes, it means you are going to use it only in case you are nuked. Launching a nuke in response of detecting a missile launch means that you are not following NFU.

But in case of India, we have already mentioned that nuke option against any non nuclear country is open if we get attacked by Biological or Chemical weapon.

Is it always possible to determine where the nuke is from? In some cases the origin could be ambiguous?
Similarly with chem- and bio- weapons.
What will be the implication of NFU then?
Will it lead to escalation from various sides/countries ?
Where do non-state actors fit into this whole equation?

 

[Chinmoy]

In case China launches a missile at it's detected as BM. India will immediately deploy the BMD and carry out the retaliation.
It's China and others to understand that launching any missile towards India can lead to nuclear war. And that's how escalations are prevented and that's what real nuclear deterrence is.

No sane country and its policy maker would think of launching BM in case of war as the very first response. Whether it is carrying a nuke or a conventional warhead, China would not do such a thing unless and until it start losing its grip in Tibet and other area as a whole.

Nukes are thus truly called as doomsday weapon. But where Pakis are concerned, one can't be sure. But for them too, they would not dare to use Nasr in battlefield or fire a salvo of couple Ababeels. Because India already made it cleat that in such a situation too, our retaliation would be massive and punitive in nature.

 

[Chinmoy]

Is it always possible to determine where the nuke is from? In some cases the origin could be ambiguous?
Similarly with chem- and bio- weapons.
What will be the implication of NFU then?
Will it lead to escalation from various sides/countries ?
Where do non-state actors fit into this whole equation?

Good question.

Now if a non state actor uses Bio or Chemical weapon against India, under present situation India does hold the very right to escalate matter or in short take the war to .......... you know where. But then too, India would not be bringing in nukes as a response IMO.

In case of a nuke, unless and until its a dirty bomb, it is always possible to determine from where it is coming. In case of a dirty bomb, the first case scenario holds true. There is a reason why India has been painting Pakistan as Mothership of Terror in each and every international forum.

 

[indus]

Is it always possible to determine where the nuke is from? In some cases the origin could be ambiguous?
Similarly with chem- and bio- weapons.
What will be the implication of NFU then?
Will it lead to escalation from various sides/countries ?
Where do non-state actors fit into this whole equation?

I guess there wont be any ambiguity as to which country its coming from. Location may be difficult to track, but surely we would know who did it and who shld we retaliate to. US is moving towards boost phase detection where the BM is easiest to detect and destroy as the speed of missile is slow. And Its very difficult to destroy incoming RVs at hypersonic speeds.
Dont know abt chem and bio weapons as India doesnt keep these banned category of weapons so very less information is known as to how these will be retaliated.

 

[Chinmoy]

I guess there wont be any ambiguity as to which country its coming from. Location may be difficult to track, but surely we would know who did it and who shld we retaliate to. US is moving towards boost phase detection where the BM is easiest to detect and destroy as the speed of missile is slow. And Its very difficult to destroy incoming RVs at hypersonic speeds.
Dont know abt chem and bio weapons as India doesnt keep these banned category of weapons so very less information is known as to how these will be retaliated.

For Chemical and Biological weapon too India would be using Nukes as both of these comes under WMD category.

 

[singhboy98]

No sane country and its policy maker would think of launching BM in case of war as the very first response. Whether it is carrying a nuke or a conventional warhead, China would not do such a thing unless and until it start losing its grip in Tibet and other area as a whole.

Nukes are thus truly called as doomsday weapon. But where Pakis are concerned, one can't be sure. But for them too, they would not dare to use Nasr in battlefield or fire a salvo of couple Ababeels. Because India already made it cleat that in such a situation too, our retaliation would be massive and punitive in nature.

The problem for the decision maker in a scenario where ballistic missiles have been launched at India, is that, there is no way of knowing if the missile carries a conventional warhead or a nuclear one. And for a country like India, which does not possess a reliable second strike capability, launching nuclear missiles immediately after detection of hostile BM maybe the only attempt at survival before the entire C&C network is wiped out.

 

[Razor]

Good question.

Now if a non state actor uses Bio or Chemical weapon against India, under present situation India does hold the very right to escalate matter or in short take the war to .......... you know where. But then too, India would not be bringing in nukes as a response IMO.

In case of a nuke, unless and until its a dirty bomb, it is always possible to determine from where it is coming. In case of a dirty bomb, the first case scenario holds true. There is a reason why India has been painting Pakistan as Mothership of Terror in each and every international forum.

I don't think always; perhaps majority of times..?
How do we determine origin country of SLBM?

 

[Razor]

The problem for the decision maker in a scenario where ballistic missiles have been launched at India, is that, there is no way of knowing if the missile carries a conventional warhead or a nuclear one. And for a country like India, which does not possess a reliable second strike capability, launching nuclear missiles immediately after detection of hostile BM maybe the only attempt at survival before the entire C&C network is wiped out.

A dead hand system like the Russian perimetr can help. Because of this system the Russian chain of command can know for certain that retaliation is guaranteed even if they are dead; this removes a burden, gives them a cooler head and lets them take time with their decisions.

 

[kalakaar]

No sane country and its policy maker would think of launching BM in case of war as the very first response.

What if a cruise missile is N tipped

 

[Chinmoy]

What if a cruise missile is N tipped

As opposed to general belief, CM are generally conventional rather then nuclear tipped. Anyway if any sort of nuclear attack happens, India does reserve the right of full spectrum nuke attack as per its policy.

 

[kalakaar]

As opposed to general belief, CM are generally conventional rather then nuclear tipped. Anyway if any sort of nuclear attack happens, India does reserve the right of full spectrum nuke attack as per its policy.

So this means a 250km range cruise missile capable of carrying a N tip can fool India in believing it to be conventional weapon and getting the hit. Pakistan may do it, China too.

I believe now days the threat perception would be , even launching a nuclear capable CM could be confused with a nuclear strike 'initiation' and may lead to nuclear flash point and retaliation.