Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Shuturmurg]

There is a reason why all the reports about joblessness focus on small towns of UP and Bihar with people just trying to give their nth attempt for a government exam. As long as you have so many youth just wasting their life away this way the narrative about jobless growth isn't going to go away

Also most of those small town students are enrolled in humanities degree.

 

[sauntheninja]

Also most of those small town students are enrolled in humanities degree.

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It's a feedback loop they take up easy degrees because they aren't confident about their math and English skills because the schools they enrolled in were poor. So they probably take humanities degrees so that they can focus on preparing for government exams instead. People usually even in cities take these degrees because the load is less and they can focus on studies either for government exams or preparing for law for example

 

[thebakofbakchod]

Jyoti CNC is one of the few CNC manufacturing companies in India. They have local R&D, but their acquisition of french company Huron way back in 2007 seem to have given them a big boost in technology. Jyoti is probably fully relying on them (IMO for the high end machines as these still have Huron's stamp on them) as many of their products look identical to what Huron used to sell, but still this company is growing well. Right now they claim to have 10% production share in India and 0.4% globally. Exports constitute ~ 40% of revenue. Revenue has risen to 1300 crores last fiscal, going past pre-covid record of ~800 crores in 2019 before it collapsed. Their facilities are currently under expansion in Rajkot, and they are projecting ~2000 crores revenue this financial year.

https://images.assettype.com/bloombergquint/2024-01/d1f39847-6610-4f82-8728-706a11eb083f/Anand_Rathi_IPO_Note_Jyoti_CNC_Automation.pdf

Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd

Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd (updated as of 24th May/24) Company Jyoti CNC Automation Ltd, est. 1989, currently operates with two manufacturing facilities in Rajkot (Annual capacity of 4400 machines p.a.) and one in Strasbourg, France (121 p.a.). Offering one of the most diverse CNC portfolios in...

forum.valuepickr.com

 

[FalconSlayers]

Also most of those small town students are enrolled in humanities degree.

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No wonder why congi piddis have so many blind worshippers. Need to end humanities or reform the branch asap.

WTF happened to USDINR? Damn! Out of nowhere! Possible RBI intervention incoming?

All major currencies have been down, Yen even worse.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

India's growth is coming from services (Software/ Accountants/ Back office) and Medium to Semi-high skilled manufacturing (electronics, refinery, chemicals, medicines, steel and other metal processing, etc). Out of this, only electronics is somewhat of a mass employment sector. Another big employment sector automobile has been growing but slowly and exports in that sector have stagnated.

But biggest thing in all of the above is you need some substantial skills.There is huge low skilled population in UP,Bihar, MP, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and even Bengal.

Growth in low skilled mass employment industries like textile, footwear, furniture, daily household items (things like hangars, crockery sets, comb, screwdrivers, etc) has been pathetic.

If we don't fix this, we will undergo brazilification with Indian characteristics.

Could someone familiar with manufacturing go into more detail on the various skills required in the blue collar workforce to have a high tech manufacturing sector? Leave aside design and engineering which is white collar.

 

[Suryaputra]

Also most of those small town students are enrolled in humanities degree.

View attachment 258782

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This doesn't show the entire picture, especially when we look at states like Haryana and Bengal. A large part of the issue is reservation.

The number of GC in a state seems to be inversely proportional to the number of students who get Science/Medicine degrees and it seems to be directly proportional to the number of people who pursue Humanities degrees.

Getting into Humanities is much easier than getting in Science/Tech/Medicine programs, so people in GC who get lower scores have to end up pursuing these useless degrees.

Percent by state of GC

Percent by State OBC

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars Unconfirned News take it with Load full of Salt, Barsu Refinery might be offshored just like the Vadhavan Port to expedite the process with minimum State Government premsion Requirements. The protest is dying out in Ratnagiri against the Refinery now.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Ya'll Nibbiars Unconfirned News take it with Load full of Salt, Barsu Refinery might be offshored just like the Vadhavan Port to expedite the process with minimum State Government premsion Requirements. The protest is dying out in Ratnagiri against the Refinery now.

Location is being changed

https://www.livemint.com/www.livemint.com/industry/energy/maharashtra-to-move-planned-ratnagiri-refinery-after-farmers-protest-1550510108667.html

 

[sauntheninja]

Location is being changed

https://www.livemint.com/www.livemint.com/industry/energy/maharashtra-to-move-planned-ratnagiri-refinery-after-farmers-protest-1550510108667.html

Even a expressway got cancelled this week due to farmers protest

 

[Haldilal]

Location is being changed

https://www.livemint.com/www.livemint.com/industry/energy/maharashtra-to-move-planned-ratnagiri-refinery-after-farmers-protest-1550510108667.html

Ya'll Nibbiars The article is from 2019.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Waste Bengal budget

I'm pretty sure Bangladesh's budget would be far better than this crap.

Combined budget of Mass education, IT and electronics, Housing, Industry, North Bengal development, MSMEs, food processing industries, fisheries, law, renewable energy is much less than what they're gonna spend on madrassah education in their state budget which btw is 75% more than what the central government spends on minority welfare crap.

Recipe for prolonged poverty and violence.

https://finance.wb.gov.in/writereaddata/Budget_Speech/2024_English.pdf

 

[blackleaf]

https://www.business-standard.com/economy/news/india-s-biz-activity-grows-faster-in-june-job-creation-at-18-yr-high-pmi-124062100383_1.html

"Robust demand prompted companies to hire more people, with overall employment generation rising at the fastest pace since April 2006. Job creation among manufacturers was higher than in the services sector.
Boosting jobs will remain the biggest challenge for the Narendra Modi government which got elected for a rare third term earlier this month, a Reuters poll showed."

 

[nongaddarliberal]

As of now the rupee has depreciated 3% against the dollar on a year to year basis. This cannot keep going on with the excuse of export competitiveness. We're still a trade deficit and energy dependant country. The amount of foreign input we need for exports negates any advantage of rupee depreciation, and more importantly only erodes our international economic power every year. The dollar is going nowhere for the next 20 years, so your nominal dollar GDP and forex reserves are the only real measures of your economic strength. We NEED to turn this around into a gradual appreciation of the rupee + trade surplus. Continuing 2-3% annual rupee depreciation will literally take away a decade of dollar GDP growth.

 

[FalconSlayers]

As of now the rupee has depreciated 3% against the dollar on a year to year basis. This cannot keep going on with the excuse of export competitiveness. We're still a trade deficit and energy dependant country. The amount of foreign input we need for exports negates any advantage of rupee depreciation, and more importantly only erodes our international economic power every year. The dollar is going nowhere for the next 20 years, so your nominal dollar GDP and forex reserves are the only real measures of your economic strength. We NEED to turn this around into a gradual appreciation of the rupee + trade surplus. Continuing 2-3% annual rupee depreciation will literally take away a decade of dollar GDP growth.

It hasn't really. It is stuck to where it was for a long time. It is other currencies who've lost more, especially the japanese yen.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

It hasn't really. It is stuck to where it was for a long time. It is other currencies who've lost more, especially the japanese yen.

It has depreciated 2% compared to where it was last year. Even if you take the annual average, it's a 3% decrease. I'm not concerned much about other developed countries like Japan, their lifestyles remain the same regardless. But for a country like India, 3% annual depreciation is a huge hit on per capita income and purchasing power when you compound it over a decade. And it has been 3 decades of constant depreciation, including the last 10 years. This can't go on. We're not China with a trillion dollar trade surplus.

 

[NutCracker]

Looks like 1.5% decline, not much. But spending 200B$ on hydrocarbon import is mind boggling. We need to curb that somehow. Govt has to push for EVs and choke scammer CKD-SKD importers.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

Ok, my calculation was off. It's a 2% decrease from 2023 same date and a 1.1% decrease if you take annual average exchange rate. But there's still half a year left and it's likely to keep depreciating going by past trends, so it'll probably end up at 3% decrease by date and 2% by annual average exchange rate.

Compounding 2% depreciation a year over 10 years, that's a 19% decrease. That's why I'm making a big deal of it. It doesn't look like much in one year but we'll miss out on 20% of our per capita income in a decade.

On the other hand, if we have just a 1% appreciation per year, then over 10 years that will add 10% in absolute value, i.e 30% higher per capita income than the previous scenario. It's a huge difference.

 

[FalconSlayers]

Ok, my calculation was off. It's a 2% decrease from 2023 same date and a 1.1% decrease if you take annual average exchange rate. But there's still half a year left and it's likely to keep depreciating going by past trends, so it'll probably end up at 3% decrease by date and 2% by annual average exchange rate.

Compounding 2% depreciation a year over 10 years, that's a 19% decrease. That's why I'm making a big deal of it. It doesn't look like much in one year but we'll miss out on 20% of our per capita income in a decade.

On the other hand, if we have just a 1% appreciation per year, then over 10 years that will add 10% in absolute value, i.e 30% higher per capita income than the previous scenario. It's a huge difference.

And nothing of that sort will happen because we can't hit current account surplus without decreasing goods trade deficit.

 

[Crazywithmath]

Ok, my calculation was off. It's a 2% decrease from 2023 same date and a 1.1% decrease if you take annual average exchange rate. But there's still half a year left and it's likely to keep depreciating going by past trends, so it'll probably end up at 3% decrease by date and 2% by annual average exchange rate.

Compounding 2% depreciation a year over 10 years, that's a 19% decrease. That's why I'm making a big deal of it. It doesn't look like much in one year but we'll miss out on 20% of our per capita income in a decade.

On the other hand, if we have just a 1% appreciation per year, then over 10 years that will add 10% in absolute value, i.e 30% higher per capita income than the previous scenario. It's a huge difference.

USDINR has been hovering between 83-83.5 for nearly 10 months now - looks pretty stable to me. Emerging currencies do not keep depreciating forever - extrapolating depreciation trends for 10-20 years makes little sense. INR used to depreciate by 3-4% annually; it is already more stable than that.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

USDINR has been hovering between 83-83.5 for nearly 10 months now - looks pretty stable to me. Emerging currencies do not keep depreciating forever - extrapolating depreciation trends for 10-20 years makes little sense. INR used to depreciate by 3-4% annually; it is already more stable than that.

Over the last 5 years it has depreciated 21%. Over the past 10 years it has depreciated 33%.