Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[another_armchair]

India inflation likely rose to 5.8% in November: Mint poll

Inflation in November and December is projected to be high, around 6%, reversing the trend of easing seen over the previous three months

www.livemint.com

Summary

• Inflation in November and December is projected to be high, around 6%, reversing the trend of easing seen over the previous three months

New Delhi: India’s retail inflation likely rose to 5.8% in November from 4.9% in October, according to a Mint poll of 23 economists. The increase could be due to higher prices of vegetables and cereals, signalling a departure from the previous three months of easing. Official data is set to be released at 5.30 pm on Tuesday.

The poll predicts November consumer price inflation to fall within the range of 5.3-6.3%. Five economists expect inflation to reach or surpass 6%, the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of India’s acceptable inflation range. Two warned of downside risks to their forecasts due to a late correction in vegetable and pulse prices.

“The rise will be driven primarily by higher food inflation, where the rise in vegetable prices (onions and tomatoes) and persistence in a few non-perishable items (pulses, in particular) will likely pressure the headline," said Rahul Bajoria, economist at Barclays, in a report dated 6 December.

RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said at the most recent monetary policy meeting that an increase in key vegetable prices may push retail inflation higher in the near term, predicting an average of 5.6% in the October-December quarter.

If the poll prediction for November comes true, and if the RBI’s projection of 5.6% for the full quarter is also correct, the December inflation will rise to 6.1%, Mint calculations show.

“We expect CPI inflation to rise above the MPC’s 6% threshold in December, before slipping back below 6% in January as food inflation cools with the arrival of fresh produce," said Anubhuti Sahay, economist at Standard Chartered Bank.

“We expect a prolonged rate pause following a balanced MPC statement in December, with a shallow 50-basis-point rate-cutting cycle starting in June 2024," Sahay added.

Economists at Barclays expect core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and fuel, to have remained stable in November, supporting the RBI’s decision to keep policy rates unchanged at its December meeting.

 

[ListenLittleMan]

Indian rice is last in the pecking order for preference currently when it comes to imports. In western supermarkets they prefer Vietnamese and Thai rice to Indian in terms of quality.
I wonder if there is data for whether and how crop variety went down after the Green revolution, that is part of this problem me thinks even if it solved our food security issues for that period by taking a pretty short term view. This whole farm protest also has its seeds in that movement since every effort was made to make Punjab the bread basket but that is a different topic.

Don't know where you pulled that data out from ?

In 2021, the countries that had a largest trade value in exports than in imports of Rice were India ($10B), Thailand ($3.47B), Vietnam ($2.27B), Pakistan ($2.22B), and United States ($1.02B).

India almost has a 3 times lead to the second most exporter in the world

Rice (HS: 1006) Product Trade, Exporters and Importers | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

The world's leading data visualization tool for international trade data.

oec.world

 

[Roshan]

Don't know where you pulled that data out from ?

In 2021, the countries that had a largest trade value in exports than in imports of Rice were India ($10B), Thailand ($3.47B), Vietnam ($2.27B), Pakistan ($2.22B), and United States ($1.02B).

India almost has a 3 times lead to the second most exporter in the world



View attachment 232325

Rice (HS: 1006) Product Trade, Exporters and Importers | The Observatory of Economic Complexity

The world's leading data visualization tool for international trade data.

oec.world

View attachment 232326

Anecdotal, didn't say i had hard data. I also mentioned quality.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

 

[gslv markIII]

Ya'll Nibbiars The Mitsubishi Electric India Pvt Ltd has Inaugurate it's manufacturing plant in Talegaon, Pune.

View attachment 232224View attachment 232225View attachment 232226View attachment 232227View attachment 232228

Y'all Nambiars Talegaon & Chakan are coalescing to become one mega sized Industrial belt.

 

[ezsasa]

if we peel off all the layers of "economist" jargon, what he is saying sounds very much like BJP's antyodaya and modi's last mile delivery saturation . won't be surprised if he used GoI's policies in past 9 years as benchmark, to form his thesis.

similarity in talking points are hard to miss
- social safety net
- reduction in social welfare gaps
- role of multi lateral banks
- focus on people centric economics along with macro economics
====
Human-Centered Economics: The Living Standards of Nations
Richard Samans

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

We should not do manufacturing because China is too ahead!!

 

[sauntheninja]

We should not do manufacturing because China is too ahead!!

His stance keeps changing every few weeks. Not surprised though he is an elite travelling to the West regularly and thinks everything west is brilliant and everything here is shit and we can't ever compete with super powers China Us

 

[indus]

We should not do manufacturing because China is too ahead!!

Filled with economic jargon and little substance. Felt like how I used to answer during viva exams when we don't know the answer but still have to say something.

 

[ezsasa]

We should not do manufacturing because China is too ahead!!

palki sharma's husband has opened a new news channel it seems

https://twitter.com/TheRedMike

 

[Crazywithmath]

Filled with economic jargon and little substance. Felt like how I used to answer during viva exams when we don't know the answer but still have to say something.

Rajan is neither an economist nor a policymaker. What else can you expect from a part time politician?

 

[Physx32]

We should not do manufacturing because China is too ahead!!

Going by his logic:
Japan should not do manufacturing because Germany and US are too ahead.

South Korea and Taiwan should not do manufacturing because Japan is too ahead.

China should not do manufacturing because South Korea and Taiwan are too ahead.

I don't understand how such clowns are tolerated in our country.

 

[karn]

To play the devils advocate .. he didn't say that China is ahead so we shouldn't try .. he's saying that the world's need for manufactured goods is already met by China and we are trying to enter a saturated space so to speak.
And the 2nd point he said that the west will impose tariffs on us if we get good at manufacturing like they are doing with china.
I wish someone would quiz him on services .. Which services are we supposed to export .. tell me one fucking industry that can absorb crores of workforce and pay enough to meet the countries consumption needs.

 

[Crazywithmath]

I wish someone would quiz him on services .. Which services are we supposed to export ..

Export of Telemedicine/Telehealth Services
.
.
.
.
.
.
.

I am not joking; he actually said it.

 

[Tejbrahmastra]

To play the devils advocate .. he didn't say that China is ahead so we shouldn't try .. he's saying that the world's need for manufactured goods is already met by China and we are trying to enter a saturated space so to speak.
And the 2nd point he said that the west will impose tariffs on us if we get good at manufacturing like they are doing with china.
I wish someone would quiz him on services .. Which services are we supposed to export .. tell me one fucking industry that can absorb crores of workforce and pay enough to meet the countries consumption needs.

China is still manufacturing powerhouse because of the sink cost. But every passing day it would be difficult to keep on due to increasing daily wage. The government as so far been successful in keeping the wage low(one of the reasons why they have low consumption), but it won't go on for forever. We have a good chance to get a sizable chunk of production from them!!

 

[SKC]

 

[another_armchair]

India's industrial production rises to 16-month high of 11.7 per cent in October 2023

India's industrial production in October rose to a 16-month high of 11.7 per cent in October 2023 against a contraction of 4.1 per cent in the same period a year ago, the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MOSPI) said on Tuesday.

economictimes.indiatimes.com

https://pib.gov.in/PressReleaseIframePage.aspx?PRID=1985484

Industrial production in India climbed 11.7% year-on-year in October 2023, the highest since June last year, from an upwardly revised 6.2% growth in the previous month and exceeding market expectations of 10%.
Output from the manufacturing sector went up by 10.4%, mining by 13.1%, and electricity by 20.4%. Considering the April-October period, industrial production rose by 6.9%. source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI)

 

[no smoking]

China is still manufacturing powerhouse because of the sink cost. But every passing day it would be difficult to keep on due to increasing daily wage.

That is the question that every rising economy has to deal with. And they have the answer: industrial robot and RCEP.

The government as so far been successful in keeping the wage low(one of the reasons why they have low consumption), but it won't go on for forever.

Low wage is not enough. The speed is critical. Now, it is the race between Indian workers and West/China machine.

We have a good chance to get a sizable chunk of production from them!!

No doubt you will have a chunk of it. The problem is how big it is!
Chinese got to where they are today by absorbing almost half of the world production.
So, with 1.4b people, how much production India need to push herself to the level of China today?
Here is the interesting fact: When Chinese came to the market, the price they provided was only 10% - 20% of South East Asians demanded. Now Indian factories' output price is only slightly lower than Chinese factories.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars

1 . The Atmus Filtration Technologies has inaugurated its cutting edge Global Capability Centre in Pune, India. The centre, spanning 1,60,000 square feet, emphasises collaboration and advanced analytics for developing industry-leading filtration technologies.

Greg Hoverson, the Chief Technical Officer at Atmus, expressed that the new Global Capability Centre in India enables the company to deliver high performing solutions with a dedicated focus on innovation.

2 .

Jakson Group inaugurates advanced Genset manufacturing plant in Maharashtra, enhancing sustainable power solutions - ET EnergyWorld

Jakson Group: This new facility is expected to manufacture approximately 2,500 gensets annually, ranging from 250KVA to 3500KVA, including gensets compliant with the latest CPCB IV+ norms

energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com

3 . The New Oriental Yeast Satara Plant.

4 .

New Aptar Mumbai Site to Increase Manufacturing Capabilities

PNN Mumbai (Maharashtra) [India], December 9: Aptar Pharma, a global leader in drug delivery systems, services and active material science solutions, today announced the opening of its new Aptar Mumbai site, which will increase manufacturing capabilities in South East Asia. Show Full Article An...

theprint.in

5 . The

Motherson Automotive Lighting JV Plant, Biradwadi, Pune. Now Under Construction.