Indian Economy: News and Discussion

ezsasa

Designated Cynic
Mod
Joined
Jul 12, 2014
Messages
32,176
Likes
149,241
Country flag
Just a thought:

Watching these ridiculous budget discussions on news today..

Modi or FM or Piyush Goyal should throw a Yorker at news anchors.

Ask them to look around their studio, ask them to count how much of their equipment are made in India. And are they willing to commit to their viewers that by 2024 they would change all their equipment to “made in India” while not sacrificing quality of the programming.

It’s time to make them realise how stupid their opinions and questions are.
 

Nicky G

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Nov 24, 2014
Messages
4,250
Likes
13,816
Country flag
I hate to say it, but I don't think there is anyone in the Modi government who seriously understands the economy or they aren't listened to or they are desperate and out of ideas.

Flip flopping in DDT is just a small symptom of this being trial and error.

They tried increasing supply side by giving tax breaks to corporates, now they think they'll boost demand side by giving (not really) tax breaks to salaried individuals.

They want to remove savings by taking away all incentives. Will kill the economy in the long run and turn us into a credit based hollow economies like the West. The problem, we aren't developed like them and don't have safety nets. People without savings will be no where.


Deductions also drive spending such as home loans, LTA etc. Removing them will further dampen the consumer spend on big ticket items in favor of some increase in spending on consumables such as hotel, electronics etc.

Why would a youngster save now? Why would he buy medical or life insurance? What happens when he falls I'll without insurance or is in an accident?

Complicating the tax code is also a sign of how this has babus behind this change and not proper economists.


My prediction is that this will slow down the economy further and if they make new regime mandatory, it would be just sucking more out of salaried tax payers and dampen spend further.

There is pretty much only one thing that can beat Modi and it seems he is determined to lose.
 
Last edited:

aditya10r

Mera Bharat mahan
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Messages
5,720
Likes
11,633
Country flag
We are poor because our percapita is still 2300usd compared to global average of 10000usd and advanced economies average of 40000usd.

Our companies are too small on global scale. There profit margin serving a rather poor populace are also very thin.

We need to stop comparing ourselves to USA where corporate are powerful and profit margins are very high. We are too far behind to worry about inequality etc. That's luxury of rich countries. .

We need jobs , skills , industries , infrastructure .
Our companies need way more capital to be globally competitive and to generate wealth.

This is time for wealth creation , we can worry about redistribution when our percapita is 40000usd. Till then let's just focus on growth .
Few things .

1. Average world gdp per capita is about 12500 USD if the growth has been 4%(2.5% real growth and 2.5% average inflation during the 2 year period and 1% population growth)
WE1.PNG

2.The IMF ADVANCED ECONOMY with lowest per capita income is ESTONIA and that has a GDP per capita of 25000 USD.

I was expecting more lenient fiscal def targets provided how they have managed to keep the targets in check for last 3-4 years and central government debt has been kept under control as well.
They could have gone all out on growth and fiscal deficit.Cutting down taxes for income is good but they should have streamlined the GST and have capped the highest tax rate at less than 18%.That would have helped increase urban demand.

Modi's plan to double farmers income between 2017 and 2022 is impossible to meet unless there is ridiculous amounts of growth in that sector but given how it has saturated its impossible.They only way it can be done is by decreasing the numbers of farmers(not through suicides) and making farming and agriculture a profit based industry.Most farmers in this country dont have enough land tor tech to create wealth.We seriously need industrialized farming to boost the credit growth.This will also help banks create more assets.Now simultaneously we should also industrialize rapidly especially norther states(UP BIHAR JHARKHAND WB ODISHA).What will happen is that as more people will leave farming to join industries it will free up resources to those farmers who'll most probably apply for credit through banks and create an asset for banks.So they'll be more productive and there will be less competition and they will earn well enough to pay off those debts.Daily wage labourers can also be absorbed in the industries.
For this firstly remove every bottleneck in that sector,from free money supply through KISAN credit card or through subsidies or through KISAN samman nidhi or through free electricity or through loan waivers.
If their is overproduction then export it or make use for it through other means like pickle or wine industry(people pay ridiculous sums of money for that,ask me i am a bihari{dry state nibba wasi}).

Our women must be educated and skilled to join the workforce to be contributors and benefactors of growth.Our current workforce as population is less than 40%(520 million labour pool out of 1350 million total population).Considering the relatively younger age of the population this is a pathetic number.Even for a country like china(which is old as fuck) has a labour participation rate of over 55%.I am absolutely sure that we can have a 60%+ labour participation rate and more people joining the work force creates a sort of multiplier effect and boosts growth.
 
Last edited:

aditya10r

Mera Bharat mahan
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Messages
5,720
Likes
11,633
Country flag
They want to remove savings by taking away all incentives. Will kill the economy in the long run and turn us into a credit based hollow economies like the West. The problem, we aren't developed like them and don't have safety nets. People without savings will be no where.
This is a serious impossibility in asian economies.Even the most advanced asia economies(japan and south korea) have a much higher savings rate than US economy.

JP is roughly 25%.
Sk is roughly 35%
USA is roughly 17%

We currently sit at 31% but then again we dont have very disposable income so asian economies(which is in general is an extension of society) is pretty good.

________________________________________

After asian financial crisis of late 90s asian economies didnt print shit load of money or made interest rates -ve% points but rather they took recovery and austerity measure to fix government expenditure and created solid forex reserves(there are 5 asian countries with highest forex reserves in the list of top 10 while only 3 asian economies in top 10 list).

__________________________________________

West is well past its tipping point it is just bloating itself with credit and loans and negative interest rates.
 

aditya10r

Mera Bharat mahan
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2016
Messages
5,720
Likes
11,633
Country flag
Paki capex is 4 billion. Our capex is 15 billion. What's the use of having an economy 10 times their size? Granted, they don't have dollars in their reserves to spare, so they can only get chinki maal.
We dont pay our soldiers in hooris and lands or stocks in company stocks.

__________________________________________
 

ezsasa

Designated Cynic
Mod
Joined
Jul 12, 2014
Messages
32,176
Likes
149,241
Country flag
Paki capex is 4 billion. Our capex is 15 billion. What's the use of having an economy 10 times their size? Granted, they don't have dollars in their reserves to spare, so they can only get chinki maal.
Good point, I think it would be prudent to find out how other defence budgets fare in this regard I.e % of defence budget allocated for capex within total defence budget. Leave out US and China.

looking at UK, France, Brazil, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Saudi and Canada defence budgets would help.

If you are on a laptop, plz do it. Otherwise I will try looking for it later. @Indx TechStyle
 

Nicky G

Tihar Jail
Banned
Joined
Nov 24, 2014
Messages
4,250
Likes
13,816
Country flag
This is a serious impossibility in asian economies.Even the most advanced asia economies(japan and south korea) have a much higher savings rate than US economy.

JP is roughly 25%.
Sk is roughly 35%
USA is roughly 17%

We currently sit at 31% but then again we dont have very disposable income so asian economies(which is in general is an extension of society) is pretty good.

________________________________________

After asian financial crisis of late 90s asian economies didnt print shit load of money or made interest rates -ve% points but rather they took recovery and austerity measure to fix government expenditure and created solid forex reserves(there are 5 asian countries with highest forex reserves in the list of top 10 while only 3 asian economies in top 10 list).

__________________________________________

West is well past its tipping point it is just bloating itself with credit and loans and negative interest rates.
Japan and SK are advanced economies where the standard of living is sufficiently high for the people and government not to be bothered with minimal growth rates.

Unfortunately, we aren't in such a situation. Plus, there is additional pressure of showing good GDP figures. This drives the government to act crazy and go on reducing our savings rate. If these policies are continued, we'll have a low saving rate in a decade or so.

That also means, in the event of an inevitable crisis, we'll be in a much more vulnerable state.
 

nongaddarliberal

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2016
Messages
4,033
Likes
22,962
Country flag
We dont pay our soldiers in hooris and lands or stocks in company stocks.

__________________________________________
Funny to say, but the issue is still serious. We are not able to build up the military might proportional to our economic and demographic superiority over them. We have only 2 times more tanks, 2 times more fighters, fewer AWACS, fewer SPG's etc. Yes, they're bankrupting themselves through military spending, but they have always been doing that. Pakistan has yet to collapse from all their military spending. Even then, they are able to maintain a standard of living in the same overall category as us. If compared to our Bimaru states, paki standard of living is actually better. We do not spend our defence budget anywhere near as efficiently or quickly as pakis.
 

nongaddarliberal

Senior Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2016
Messages
4,033
Likes
22,962
Country flag
Good point, I think it would be prudent to find out how other defence budgets fare in this regard I.e % of defence budget allocated for capex within total defence budget. Leave out US and China.

looking at UK, France, Brazil, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Saudi and Canada defence budgets would help.

If you are on a laptop, plz do it. Otherwise I will try looking for it later. @Indx TechStyle
Trying to find breakdowns of defence budgets for the above countries but not able to till now, in the way that they're not specifying capex or budget per service. Hope someone can do it, it'll be quite interesting.
 

Knowitall

Senior Member
Joined
Jan 31, 2019
Messages
7,930
Likes
35,897
At this point is it good if we let Subramanian Swamy handle the economy once maybe just maybe he might change things for BJP.
 

Hari Sud

Senior Member
Joined
Mar 31, 2012
Messages
3,863
Likes
8,705
Country flag
Too much information above. Tell us whether economy has set its course for recovery and be a $5 trillion economy by 2014.
 

jackprince

Turning into a frog
Senior Member
Joined
Mar 30, 2009
Messages
4,996
Likes
17,038
Country flag
I hate to say it, but I don't think there is anyone in the Modi government who seriously understands the economy or they aren't listened to or they are desperate and out of ideas.

Flip flopping in DDT is just a small symptom of this being trial and error.

They tried increasing supply side by giving tax breaks to corporates, now they think they'll boost demand side by giving (not really) tax breaks to salaried individuals.

They want to remove savings by taking away all incentives. Will kill the economy in the long run and turn us into a credit based hollow economies like the West. The problem, we aren't developed like them and don't have safety nets. People without savings will be no where.


Deductions also drive spending such as home loans, LTA etc. Removing them will further dampen the consumer spend on big ticket items in favor of some increase in spending on consumables such as hotel, electronics etc.

Why would a youngster save now? Why would he buy medical or life insurance? What happens when he falls I'll without insurance or is in an accident?

Complicating the tax code is also a sign of how this has babus behind this change and not proper economists.


My prediction is that this will slow down the economy further and if they make new regime mandatory, it would be just sucking more out of salaried tax payers and dampen spend further.

There is pretty much only one thing that can beat Modi and it seems he is determined to lose.
Well said.

The young of today is already too enamoured to finer things in life whether within their financial means or not. There are kids earning 25k takes out loan to buy iPhone. Now the minimum incentive for them to be cautious about future through savings, homeloans etc will be gone. Someone here said Govt wants the nation to move toward renting rather than building homes! Why? What would that gain? Yes, it might pull down the real estate market, but that would also crush the economy! The banks and financial institutions took a huge hit. As for those people who are saying sensex is not a marker worth noting, would have been quicker to point to the sensex number if the indices have been up today.

This Govt seems to think that market doesn't need local investment the way it discourages resident tax payers. Last year it penalised people for investing in the market through LTCG means. It now says midium income group that no investment is required to be made in form savings. it abolished DDT making Dividend taxable in receivers hand making the dividend amount taxable at the highest slab the recipient falls. Given that rich are the ones who hold a large part of shares of the various companies, now the rich would rather find some other way to make money.

I don't know what is the idea behind such steps. They make themselves unpopular to middle and upper middle class. The baniyas rued demo and GST, now middle class is ruing. What is the ultimate gain? If idea is to make more money to flow into consumption, how does taxing people more work?
 

Latest Replies

Global Defence

New threads

Articles

Top