Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[karn]

Known to most here . But still a good summary

 

[Crazywithmath]

Very pertinent points. Fuel price gouging is criminal, now

I have been writing on their failures over disinvestment for over a year now. The FM is incompetent and the PMO (the PM?) just does not care. The sheer amount of capital that can be unlocked through disinvestment/monetization is criminally underestimated. They would be able to spend way way more on stuff that actually matters - fund a few more PLI schemes, spend on R&D, push capex, offer cheap credits and stimuli; without compromising on deficits.

Unfortunately, they are too busy doing rr over rating agencies instead. Those rating agency retards anyway won't upgrade India anytime soon. GoI babus can break bangles, cry a river, throw tantrums and even then the ratings won't change because ratings are tied to pci and nothing else.

Markets are at an all time high but they just don't care - absolute nincompoops!

 

[Covfefe]

I have been writing on their failures over disinvestment for over a year now. The FM is incompetent and the PMO (the PM?) just does not care. The sheer amount of capital that can be unlocked through disinvestment/monetization is criminally underestimated. They would be able to spend way way more on stuff that actually matters - fund a few more PLI schemes, spend on R&D, push capex, offer cheap credits and stimuli; without compromising on deficits.

Unfortunately, they are too busy doing rr over rating agencies instead (those rating agecny retards anyway won't upgrade India anytime soon; the ratings are tied to pci and nothing else).

Markets are at an all time high but they just don't care - absolute nincompoops!

That whole DIPAM department must be divested first of all, a bureaucratic pile of turd it is.

 

[sauntheninja]

I have been writing on their failures over disinvestment for over a year now. The FM is incompetent and the PMO (the PM?) just does not care. The sheer amount of capital that can be unlocked through disinvestment/monetization is criminally underestimated. They would be able to spend way way more on stuff that actually matters - fund a few more PLI schemes, spend on R&D, push capex, offer cheap credits and stimuli; without compromising on deficits.

Unfortunately, they are too busy doing rr over rating agencies instead. Those rating agency retards anyway won't upgrade India anytime soon. GoI babus can break bangles, cry a river, throw tantrums and even then the ratings won't change because ratings are tied to pci and nothing else.

Markets are at an all time high but they just don't care - absolute nincompoops!

The reality is whenever the topic of disinvestment comes people start protesting and unions start holding bandhs across the country. There was no way BJP were going to attempt it in a election year

 

[Covfefe]

The reality is whenever the topic of disinvestment comes people start protesting and unions start holding bandhs across the country. There was no way BJP were going to attempt it in a election year

1) all disinvestment/ monetization target is not privatization of companies. Asset monetization is in shitters. Prime lands lying waste/ squandered upon
2) they've failed their targets consistently over entire term and not just the election year

 

[Crazywithmath]

The reality is whenever the topic of disinvestment comes people start protesting and unions start holding bandhs across the country.

That is just a roundabout way of claiming the incumbent government is incompetent (which I agree with BTW).

They didn't give out freebies in an election year - that's just how confident they are of winning the LS polls and they are scared of a bunch of oonga boonga PSU unions? Also, a year back there was no election, why did the govt miss out on disinvestment targets back then? OFB too had unions; how did they manage to corporatize such a massive institution?

The newly elected Rajasthan govt gave a giant FU to the gormint labor unions and scrapped all the promises over reinstatement of OPS barely a few weeks back. How many strikes were conducted?

If there is will, competence and accountability these lal selam retards can be taken care of; we are not living in the '70s and '80s when unions used to hold the govt ransom.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Now also they dig something for 3hrs go home. Attendence other scam.

Yeah that needs to be fixed. This is just a “do some work” scheme. There are no quality of work targets. But the good thing is they have to spend the money on things - so it comes back to gdp.

 

[Shuturmurg]

Take a detailed look at the sectors attracting FDI in Indo - you will get your explanation.

I don't have much knowledge over VN but apparently they had a 4 year long stagnation (and small declines) before the surge in 2023.

Overall, global FDI has suffered big time; troubles in EU, tightening by the Fed, wars everywhere - the reasons are endless. India isn't a rerouting hub either - so there is that.



For absolute per capita comparisons -> ppp adjusted

For overall economic strength -> nominal

Nominal figures get heavily impacted by exchange rates and very often do not reflect the real growth that an economy is claimed to be enjoying. It is significant for oil importing emerging economies with structural CAD - that experience consistent currency depreciation. I remember the UPA 2 years when the nominal GDP per capita barely rose - despite 7% real growth because INR depreciated sharply.

As nations get richer, their exchange rates stabilize over time and the nominal figures converge with the PPP adjusted figures.

It is for these reasons, IMF itself does not recommend comparing economies over nominal per capita figures.

India's share of global FDI is also declining.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Hmm let see
GDP Per capita

Bangladesh	Asia	2,621	2023	2,688	2022	2,450	2021
India	Asia	2,612	2023

steel production
List of countries by steel production - Wikipedia

2

India

140.2

29

Bangladesh

5.5

electricity production per capita
List of countries by electricity consumption - Wikipedia
India 1,025 KWh
Bangladesh 461 KWh

Why is bangladesh steel, electricity, cement consumption so less even though there GDP is higher than ours ?

Because $2600 is low PCI that can be produced just with labor intensive industry. Also, Bangladesh might have formalized their labor force, especially women a lot more than we do. You cannot compare with all India average. you really have to compare Bangladesh to industrial Indian states. Many are now over $3300 and some are getting close to $4000 like Telangana and Haryana. These states PCI will continue to grow due to industrial automation as more gdp comes in while labor costs increase only moderately. Bangladesh does not have this type of industrialization. Eastern UP and Bihar are certainly areas for Bangladesh type economy. Waste Bengal? Don’t know. Don’t care.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Interesting, a labour shortage in India's "Scandinavia". Many Aryan invaders from the North apparently returning home.

Tiruppur stares at labour crisis as UP migrant workers return home

The Tiruppur apparel industry in Tamil Nadu is facing a potential labour crisis as thousands of migrant workers from Uttar Pradesh are returning home due to increased job opportunities, particularly after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. Around 60,000 migrant workers have already...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

Let’s see. scandinavian countries created companies like Nokia, IKEA, Ericsson and hold patents on a lot of original technology. What have the blond haired, blue eyed boys and girls of Tamil Nadu created? Rice bags?
Without the Chennai port, which is a GoI facility, nuclear power stations and power grid integrations, another GoI facility, water from other states, central universities like IIT and NIT, TN would be a gooda raj state much like Bihar.

 

[karn]

Because $2600 is low PCI that can be produced just with labor intensive industry. Also, Bangladesh might have formalized their labor force, especially women a lot more than we do. You cannot compare with all India average. you really have to compare Bangladesh to industrial Indian states. Many are now over $3300 and some are getting close to $4000 like Telangana and Haryana. These states PCI will continue to grow due to industrial automation as more gdp comes in while labor costs increase only moderately. Bangladesh does not have this type of industrialization. Eastern UP and Bihar are certainly areas for Bangladesh type economy. Waste Bengal? Don’t know. Don’t care.

I can't find it right now but there is is an epic comment on reddit which compares most common aspects of consumption from steel ,electricity, cars , 2 wheelers , fuel and some 5 other categories where we are 3 X kangludesh in per capita terms . They are not an energy exporting country heck they import most of it like us neither are they a tourism destination (heck they have outflows there ) they aren't food secure either .So we can count out those outliers. The math ain't mathing for kangludesh all this points to a govt level cope where great leader hasina legitimises her power by claiming to her green chimps that they are better off than the kafirs .
The only positive that I can think of is that they have 2 ish TFR which means that atleast this overcrowded shithole ain't gonna go into mass starvation in the near future as opposed to jhaantistan.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

That is just a roundabout way of claiming the incumbent government is incompetent (which I agree with BTW).

They didn't give out freebies in an election year - that's just how confident they are of winning the LS polls and they are scared of a bunch of oonga boonga PSU unions? Also, a year back there was no election, why did the govt miss out on disinvestment targets back then? OFB too had unions; how did they manage to corporatize such a massive institution?

The newly elected Rajasthan govt gave a giant FU to the gormint labor unions and scrapped all the promises over reinstatement of OPS barely a few weeks back. How many strikes were conducted?

If there is will, competence and accountability these lal selam retards can be taken care of; we are not living in the '70s and '80s when unions used to hold the govt ransom.

BJP in 2nd term was almost like UPA 2nd term - slow as fuck. Did not do any structural reforms and did not spend enough on infrastructure. A huge number of infrastructure projects are delayed with huge cost overruns. For example, we would have expected a majority governm like BJP to have pushed through construction of all RRTS lines and also being such lines in a few more cities - think big, big programs. Also, construction for railway station modernization and TOD in all major cities should have been started. Expressway development is way behind schedule with many pushed to 2027 deadline now. Also, my favorite: 100% of Indians should have had a basic home with smart meter, water connection, gas connections and sewerage by now. We have a huge population. We could have mobilized lakes of people under MNREGS to get this done. What were we waiting for?
Urban planning, roads, TODs, trade centers and rural roads, trade centers, farmer markets are huge drivers of economy. This is all stuff we have money for and could be done at a much larger scale than happening today. But we are unable to mobilize employees in lakes and put in place processes to get this done.
Finally, corruption. Corruption at lower levels destroys ability of people to contribute to economy. I believe our GDP growth will improve by 1% at least if corruption is rooted out by digitizing all real estate records and transactions. Huge issues with accuracy of land and resource ownership records in India. Clean land that can be purchased for economic activity without any fraud is vital to deliver high growth rates. BJP has done nothing to focus on corruption at lower levels and reduce it.
states like Bihar, WB, Jharkhand, TN are extremely corrupt. This suppresses innovation economy in all these states. Without a pan India approach of reducing corruption by a huge amount, we will lose a lot of GDP growth.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

I can't find it right now but there is is an epic comment on reddit which compares most common aspects of consumption from steel ,electricity, cars , 2 wheelers , fuel and some 5 other categories where we are 3 X kangludesh in per capita terms . They are not an energy exporting country heck they import most of it like us neither are they a tourism destination (heck they have outflows there ) they aren't food secure either .So we can count out those outliers. The math ain't mathing for kangludesh all this points to a govt level cope where great leader hasina legitimises her power by claiming to her green chimps that they are better off than the kafirs .
The only positive that I can think of is that they have 2 ish TFR which means that atleast this overcrowded shithole ain't gonna go into mass starvation in the near future as opposed to jhaantistan.

However visibly looking at videos and images, Dhaka seems to be doing better than Kolkata with plenty of infrastructure projects in Dhaka completed or underway. And these are large projects like expressways, metro, river transport. And frankly Dhaka’s high income districts are not bad - they do have some modern buildings and decent road infrastructure. They also have good beachside towns in Cox’s Bazaar area and the Chittagong port is doing brisk business. The bridge on the Padma river is a game changer for them. Now WB’s PCI is like $1700. I think Bangladesh is more developed than WB now. So, you would expect B’Desh to have a higher PCI than WB - maybe $2000-2100 if not $2600. This analysis is based on visibly looking at the developments in Bangladesh videos on YT. But yes if the greenest people explode themselves let and right, Bangaldesh is going to become another Pakodastan - chances of this implosion in B’Desh is quite high. Hence they have to keep selecting Hasina for more time, as at least she kept these greenest filth in check and built decent infrastructure that helps both BDesh and us.

 

[Azaad]

BJP in 2nd term was almost like UPA 2nd term - slow as fuck. Did not do any structural reforms and did not spend enough on infrastructure. A huge number of infrastructure projects are delayed with huge cost overruns. For example, we would have expected a majority governm like BJP to have pushed through construction of all RRTS lines and also being such lines in a few more cities - think big, big programs. Also, construction for railway station modernization and TOD in all major cities should have been started. Expressway development is way behind schedule with many pushed to 2027 deadline now. Also, my favorite: 100% of Indians should have had a basic home with smart meter, water connection, gas connections and sewerage by now. We have a huge population. We could have mobilized lakes of people under MNREGS to get this done. What were we waiting for?
Urban planning, roads, TODs, trade centers and rural roads, trade centers, farmer markets are huge drivers of economy. This is all stuff we have money for and could be done at a much larger scale than happening today. But we are unable to mobilize employees in lakes and put in place processes to get this done.
Finally, corruption. Corruption at lower levels destroys ability of people to contribute to economy. I believe our GDP growth will improve by 1% at least if corruption is rooted out by digitizing all real estate records and transactions. Huge issues with accuracy of land and resource ownership records in India. Clean land that can be purchased for economic activity without any fraud is vital to deliver high growth rates. BJP has done nothing to focus on corruption at lower levels and reduce it.
states like Bihar, WB, Jharkhand, TN are extremely corrupt. This suppresses innovation economy in all these states. Without a pan India approach of reducing corruption by a huge amount, we will lose a lot of GDP growth.

 

[karn]

However visibly looking at videos and images, Dhaka seems to be doing better than Kolkata with plenty of infrastructure projects in Dhaka completed or underway. And these are large projects like expressways, metro, river transport. And frankly Dhaka’s high income districts are not bad - they do have some modern buildings and decent road infrastructure. They also have good beachside towns in Cox’s Bazaar area and the Chittagong port is doing brisk business. The bridge on the Padma river is a game changer for them. Now WB’s PCI is like $1700. I think Bangladesh is more developed than WB now. So, you would expect B’Desh to have a higher PCI than WB - maybe $2000-2100 if not $2600. This analysis is based on visibly looking at the developments in Bangladesh videos on YT. But yes if the greenest people explode themselves let and right, Bangaldesh is going to become another Pakodastan - chances of this implosion in B’Desh is quite high. Hence they have to keep selecting Hasina for more time, as at least she kept these greenest filth in check and built decent infrastructure that helps both BDesh and us.

Ah our bimarus ... their greatest export product is copium for our green neighbours economic refugees is a close second..

 

[karn]

BJP in 2nd term was almost like UPA 2nd term - slow as fuck. Did not do any structural reforms and did not spend enough on infrastructure. A huge number of infrastructure projects are delayed with huge cost overruns. For example, we would have expected a majority governm like BJP to have pushed through construction of all RRTS lines and also being such lines in a few more cities - think big, big programs. Also, construction for railway station modernization and TOD in all major cities should have been started. Expressway development is way behind schedule with many pushed to 2027 deadline now. Also, my favorite: 100% of Indians should have had a basic home with smart meter, water connection, gas connections and sewerage by now. We have a huge population. We could have mobilized lakes of people under MNREGS to get this done. What were we waiting for?
Urban planning, roads, TODs, trade centers and rural roads, trade centers, farmer markets are huge drivers of economy. This is all stuff we have money for and could be done at a much larger scale than happening today. But we are unable to mobilize employees in lakes and put in place processes to get this done.
Finally, corruption. Corruption at lower levels destroys ability of people to contribute to economy. I believe our GDP growth will improve by 1% at least if corruption is rooted out by digitizing all real estate records and transactions. Huge issues with accuracy of land and resource ownership records in India. Clean land that can be purchased for economic activity without any fraud is vital to deliver high growth rates. BJP has done nothing to focus on corruption at lower levels and reduce it.
states like Bihar, WB, Jharkhand, TN are extremely corrupt. This suppresses innovation economy in all these states. Without a pan India approach of reducing corruption by a huge amount, we will lose a lot of GDP growth.

Please .. capex / GDP even capex / revenue has never been higher than the last 2 years. Comparing that to UPA2 is a joke.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Please .. capex / GDP even capex / revenue has never been higher than the last 2 years. Comparing that to UPA2 is a joke.

Not the amount. I am saying BJP slowed down in 2nd terms compared to their first term just like UPA did. No question UPA was a crony capitalism, scammer regime doing anti-national things. The slower BJP 2nd terms is way way better than anything scamgress and its crony friends did including bankrupting India.

 

[karn]

Not the amount. I am saying BJP slowed down in 2nd terms compared to their first term just like UPA did. No question UPA was a crony capitalism, scammer regime doing anti-national things. The slower BJP 2nd terms is way way better than anything scamgress and its crony friends did including bankrupting India.

Im just looking at the hard numbers .. Capex as a percentage of the budget has never been higher

If you are talking about a lack of labour reforms or the govmint pussying out on farm reforms .. Im with ya.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Im just looking at the hard numbers .. Capex as a percentage of the budget has never been higher

True but it is not being spent fully. I believe they were short 10% or so. Ideally you want them fully spending and asking for more budget. That indicates rapid growth. But if you are struggling to complete projects on time and underspending that shows that execution problems are not fully solved yet.

 

[karn]

True but it is not being spent fully. I believe they were short 10% or so. Ideally you want them fully spending and asking for more budget. That indicates rapid growth. But if you are struggling to complete projects on time and underspending that shows that execution problems are not fully solved yet.

A consequence of living in a democratic system that honours private ownership of land .. And land acquisition is at the behest of a fickel local govmint along with oversight from milaaards.
It is what it is ..