Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Swesh]

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/376519105_India's_Quantum_Move_From_Budget_Allocation_Action_and_Future_Challenges

@notaname this is the source

 

[Swesh]

@AnantS I am not able to copy this content can you paste it here

 

[ListenLittleMan]

Gujarat is a dry state.

People drive all the way to Daman & Diu to indulge themselves.

Amdavadi's won't have to go to Daman & Diu to party anymore.

Just drive down to Gift City.

Looks like man is already looking for land to open Bar&Restaurant, name it DFI Nibbiars' Inn

 

[ListenLittleMan]

India's Dilemma - Building Manufacturing or Services

Manufacturing is an established route to achieving economic progress and job creation. Should India follow suite or bypass to services?

www.fedev.org

According to the PLFS report for 2021-22, the Indian worker population ratio for ages 15 and above is only 52.9%[1]. This is much lower compared to other countries, such as China (80%) and Japan (70%), during periods of rapid economic growth[2]. Further, 26.8% of the labour force is employed in casual work, with no fixed income or job security

Data from even India’s most industrialised states (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) show that we haven’t gotten very far in industrialisation.

Agriculture and allied sectors in these states employ ~43% of the population but contribute only ~11% to their economy.

In contrast, the manufacturing sector employs ~15% and contributes ~20% to the economy. This is a clear indication that even in the most industrialised states in India, the workforce is stuck in low productivity sectors.

Overall, ~24 crore people in India are employed in agriculture, and getting just half the population out of agriculture in India would require us to create 12 crore new job opportunities.

In 2005, 30% of women in India were in the paid labour force, and this number has come down to 19% in 2021. Getting back to 30% would imply creating 8 crore additional jobs for our women.

What's the reason behind this fall ?

In 2010, India and Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~7 billion USD, however in the next 10 years Vietnam’s electronics exports grew at the rate of 32% annually, whereas India’s electronics exports grew only at the rate of 4%. By 2020, Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~116 billion USD, which was 11 times that of India’s exports in electronics.

The time is now ripe for India to become a major manufacturing player, and the present geopolitical system has given us the right opportunity. Given the sheer size of India, we should ideally be in a position create at least 5 Vietnams within India!

Thought ?

 

[ezsasa]

India's Dilemma - Building Manufacturing or Services

Manufacturing is an established route to achieving economic progress and job creation. Should India follow suite or bypass to services?

www.fedev.org

According to the PLFS report for 2021-22, the Indian worker population ratio for ages 15 and above is only 52.9%[1]. This is much lower compared to other countries, such as China (80%) and Japan (70%), during periods of rapid economic growth[2]. Further, 26.8% of the labour force is employed in casual work, with no fixed income or job security

View attachment 233664

Data from even India’s most industrialised states (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) show that we haven’t gotten very far in industrialisation.

Agriculture and allied sectors in these states employ ~43% of the population but contribute only ~11% to their economy.

In contrast, the manufacturing sector employs ~15% and contributes ~20% to the economy. This is a clear indication that even in the most industrialised states in India, the workforce is stuck in low productivity sectors.

Overall, ~24 crore people in India are employed in agriculture, and getting just half the population out of agriculture in India would require us to create 12 crore new job opportunities.

View attachment 233665

In 2005, 30% of women in India were in the paid labour force, and this number has come down to 19% in 2021. Getting back to 30% would imply creating 8 crore additional jobs for our women.

What's the reason behind this fall ?

View attachment 233666

In 2010, India and Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~7 billion USD, however in the next 10 years Vietnam’s electronics exports grew at the rate of 32% annually, whereas India’s electronics exports grew only at the rate of 4%. By 2020, Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~116 billion USD, which was 11 times that of India’s exports in electronics.




Thought ?

these point come up again and again, but almost always data given is in terms of percentage of population, but almost never in absolute numbers, as in how many crores of population needs to be involved in manufacturing?

even if workforce age population is available, it won't be the case that there are enough companies to hire them. let's say china has 12 crores population in manufacturing, and we have 8 crore population in manufacturing, then we can say potential gap is 4 crore.

do try and find out if absolute numbers are available anywhere.

 

[ListenLittleMan]

these point come up again and again, but almost always data given is in terms of percentage of population, but almost never in absolute numbers, as in how many crores of population needs to be involved in manufacturing?

even if workforce age population is available, it won't be the case that there are enough companies to hire them. let's say china has 12 crores population in manufacturing, and we have 8 crore population in manufacturing, then we can say potential gap is 4 crore.

do try and find out if absolute numbers are available anywhere.

In the article it says

Overall, ~24 crore people in India are employed in agriculture, and getting just half the population out of agriculture in India would require us to create 12 crore new job opportunities.

In 2021, India’s share of exports in global merchandise trade was only 2%[10], and we had ~12 crore industrial employment. On the other hand, China’s share of exports in global trade is 16% with ~21 crore industrial employment[11].

No absolute numbers but just throwing a wild guess from the above takes, maybe around 25 crore new jobs ?

 

[ezsasa]

In the article it says



In 2021, India’s share of exports in global merchandise trade was only 2%[10], and we had ~12 crore industrial employment. On the other hand, China’s share of exports in global trade is 16% with ~21 crore industrial employment[11].

No absolute numbers but just throwing a wild guess from the above takes, maybe around 25 crore new jobs ?

in that case, we can just wait for next census data, instead of guesstimating.
in the mean while, GVA manufacturing numbers are good enough for now. if GVA manufacturing numbers are increasing, either workforce is getting added or existing workforce is becoming more productive in terms of value addition.

 

[sauntheninja]

these point come up again and again, but almost always data given is in terms of percentage of population, but almost never in absolute numbers, as in how many crores of population needs to be involved in manufacturing?

even if workforce age population is available, it won't be the case that there are enough companies to hire them. let's say china has 12 crores population in manufacturing, and we have 8 crore population in manufacturing, then we can say potential gap is 4 crore.

do try and find out if absolute numbers are available anywhere.

In Absolute numbers our employment numbers will always look huge because we have 1 billion people though

 

[AnantS]

@AnantS I am not able to copy this content can you paste it here

Which content you are pointing to?

 

[Crazywithmath]

India's Dilemma - Building Manufacturing or Services

Manufacturing is an established route to achieving economic progress and job creation. Should India follow suite or bypass to services?

www.fedev.org

According to the PLFS report for 2021-22, the Indian worker population ratio for ages 15 and above is only 52.9%[1]. This is much lower compared to other countries, such as China (80%) and Japan (70%), during periods of rapid economic growth[2]. Further, 26.8% of the labour force is employed in casual work, with no fixed income or job security

View attachment 233664

Data from even India’s most industrialised states (Maharashtra, Karnataka, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) show that we haven’t gotten very far in industrialisation.

Agriculture and allied sectors in these states employ ~43% of the population but contribute only ~11% to their economy.

In contrast, the manufacturing sector employs ~15% and contributes ~20% to the economy. This is a clear indication that even in the most industrialised states in India, the workforce is stuck in low productivity sectors.

Overall, ~24 crore people in India are employed in agriculture, and getting just half the population out of agriculture in India would require us to create 12 crore new job opportunities.

View attachment 233665

In 2005, 30% of women in India were in the paid labour force, and this number has come down to 19% in 2021. Getting back to 30% would imply creating 8 crore additional jobs for our women.

What's the reason behind this fall ?

View attachment 233666

In 2010, India and Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~7 billion USD, however in the next 10 years Vietnam’s electronics exports grew at the rate of 32% annually, whereas India’s electronics exports grew only at the rate of 4%. By 2020, Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~116 billion USD, which was 11 times that of India’s exports in electronics.




Thought ?

in that case, we can just wait for next census data, instead of guesstimating.

in the mean while, GVA manufacturing numbers are good enough for now. if GVA manufacturing numbers are increasing, either workforce is getting added or existing workforce is becoming more productive in terms of value addition.

I have written on it before; do we really want to copy Japan and chongs? Long working hours and abundance of contractual labor wrecked havoc on the demographies of Japan and Korea - they have never recovered from that. The govts have massive debts, an ageing population compels them to spend havily on healthcare, pensions and you are left with a society obsessed with career where women just won't marry unless their partners are rich (which is very rare since the majority of Japanese workforce are forever stuck in contractual works; jobs that rarely pay well). The Japanese govt intends to modernize their defence forces to counter cheenis - which in itself is going to cost them a fortune; nobody knows how they will afford it - especially since the incumbent coalition has vowed not to hike taxes. We have chongs and pakis on our border - heavy defence spending will remain a necessity for decades to come and a demographic washout would threaten our national security.

We already have a consistent decline in % of labor force involved in agriculture; ILO estimates substantiate that. And lastly, the 9-9-6 working culture shd not be promoted in India.

As far as electronics are concerned, India clocked exports worth US$ 15.48 billion in H1 FY 2023-24 (CAGR of 28%) and India is only a newcomer in this game!

Vietnam's exports have little value addition (mostly rerouted exports from cheeniland to circumvent US/EU tariffs) and last but not the least, VN's real growth is projected to plunge below 5% this year; they are yet to outgrow us in the post covid period.

 

[sauntheninja]

 

[FalconSlayers]

Has government successfully done anything for supporting textile production growth?

China’s Surplus Textile Influx Affects India’s $60 Billion Industry

Chinese Imports Glut on India’s $60 Billion Industry. India’s MMF sector faces increasing imports, higher domestic prices, & QCOs, impacting local spinners, weavers & processors

www.thehindu.com

 

[Coalmine]

This is a problem. Due to less upscale areas and good infrastructure and cleanliness , prices are high in some places.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars

1 . The ARENQ has unveiled its new 128 crore rupees manufacturing unit in Khed City, Pune, Maharashtra. This strategic move underscores ARENQ's steadfast commitment to innovation and excellence in the rapidly evolving energy storage industry.

Having announced its expansion plan earlier this year, the fully automated production unit spans an impressive 80,000 square feet. Besten Engineers & Consultants India Pvt Ltd, a renowned Chennai-based firm, has been entrusted with the consultancy contract for this ambitious project.

2 . Murugappa Group’s engineering firm Tube Investments of India Ltd will invest 211 crore rupees in establishing a greenfield factory near Pune to manufacture precision steel tubes.

3 . The Tynor Orthotics Pvt. Ltd. inaugurates its manufacturing facility in Mohali, Punjab. The co. has invested 800 Crore Rupees in this facility, which has created over 500 new jobs.

 

[DingDong]

This is a problem. Due to less upscale areas and good infrastructure and cleanliness , prices are high in some places.

Supply and Demand. Kashmir has been attracting lot of domestic tourists which is a significant upsurge.

1.27 crore tourists visited J&K so far this year; arrivals expected to cross 2.25 crore

 

[ezsasa]

the other day, i was mentioning in an earlier convo why percentages do not give the full picture, absolute numbers also matter.

in the video below from coupta's outfit, even after watching the entire video, one will not realise that UPA's spending on capex is 12 lakh crore and NDA(excluding current fiscal) is 34 lakh crore.

since we are on topic, for defence capex from same data, UPA - 5 lakh crore, NDA(excluding current fiscal) is 9.7 lakh crore.

same goes for other major heads mentioned in the video
=======
Focus on capex, decreasing subsidies--how Modi govt's priorities are different from UPA's

Reserve Bank of India - Publications

 

[another_armchair]

This is a problem. Due to less upscale areas and good infrastructure and cleanliness , prices are high in some places.

LOL.. my cousin is at a ramshackle beach side shack in Agonda, Goa paying 7k a night with no inclusions(breakfast/lunch/dinner).

Air fares have hit the stratosphere. Airlines must be trying to fund their planned fleet upgrades.

 

[R1TTER]

India's Dilemma - Building Manufacturing or Services

Manufacturing is an established route to achieving economic progress and job creation. Should India follow suite or bypass to services?

www.fedev.org

View attachment 233666

In 2010, India and Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~7 billion USD, however in the next 10 years Vietnam’s electronics exports grew at the rate of 32% annually, whereas India’s electronics exports grew only at the rate of 4%. By 2020, Vietnam’s electronics exports stood at ~116 billion USD, which was 11 times that of India’s exports in electronics.




Thought ?

Like I posted a few pages back the quantum of exports in and of itself is not that big a deal given the vast majority of profits are going to Apple/Intel/Amazon/MS/AMD/Broadcom/Google/Qualcomm/Nvidia et al.

What we need is either software supremacy(?) or something radically innovative when it comes to hardware, but given the number of patents already owned by these companies it would be hard to achieve. Realistically speaking our best bet is software/services based industries because there'll eventually be market saturation when it comes to hardware plus software/services would generally have higher margins.

 

[karn]

LOL.. my cousin is at a ramshackle beach side shack in Agonda, Goa paying 7k a night with no inclusions(breakfast/lunch/dinner).

Air fares have hit the stratosphere. Airlines must be trying to fund their planned fleet upgrades.

Christmas to new years is absolute peak season there .. I don't have the courage to go to a beach area this time of year . That same shack would go down to 2-3 k by Jan end .

 

[sauntheninja]

Christmas to new years is absolute peak season there .. I don't have the courage to go to a beach area this time of year . That same shack would go down to 2-3 k by Jan end .

It took me 40 minutes to a hour yesterday to exit a mall in Mumbai everything is absolutely packed this year