Indian Economy: News and Discussion

thebakofbakchod

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I am not sure it is always about the capital. 99% of Indian MSMEs have not integrated themselves into global supply chains which is what brings best practices and capital from the procurer. This is because they have mostly catered to low quality Indian consumer expectations. Also, there has always been a severe lack of quality engineering talent in India. Until recently, logistics was non-existent. Militant trade unions, bureaucratic red tape, corrupt nationalized banks with huge NPAs due to agricultural loan freebies all combined to wreak havoc. Remember most things changed only after Modi took over in 2014. Prior to that it would be impossible for most MSMEs especially those in backward states to even think about integration into global supply chains. Entire concepts like multi modal logistics parks, ease of doing business, multi modal transportation, insolvency and bankruptcy code, etc simply did not exist. Plus the Congis gave rise to corrupt, crony capitalists that all cheated one way or the other. Think about all the companies started in Congi era:
- Deccan airlines
- Jet Airways
- Sahara
- GMR airports
- Satyam IT
- Cafe Coffee Day
- NDTV
- Sterlite
- various Jewellers
- various 2G companies
- ICICI Bank
- Videocon
- various agricultural societies
- various home appliance companies like Khaitan, Crompton Greaves, Keltron
and so many more.

None of them have survived or are struggling or their former CEOs arrested for frauds. Many fraudulent loans were given by banks to Congi chamchas during UPA rule resulting in massive NPAs. Maun Mohan Singh was totally played by Sonia & Company. Proper lending by banks to MSMEs to facilitate integration with global supply chains must have commenced as early as 2001 when China was actively doing so. But the Congi fools failed to quickly build infrastructure and capitalize on the globalization of manufacturing. Now we are playing catch up in a global economy wrecked by the Wuhan virus and Russia-Ukraine war. The bankruptcy in 1991 followed by chaotic administration of India for 20+ years by anti-development parties including the UPA pretty much let China race ahead of us. Only IT, which did not have much government intervention, thrived. Manufacturing was toast. No FDI, no global expertise, nothing. Just massive brain drain out of India.
Ultimately boils down to quality of education. Indians are the dumbest group of people in the planet in terms of education quality. Cant expect anything to emerge when the quality of education in STEM is so bad.

 

Concard

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While the PLI will succeed for the higher end of manufacturing investments, it will ultimately make no big difference to India's overall manufacturing sector. Come back to this comment in 10 years and i will bet the manufacturing % of GDP will still be around 20%. For India's manufacturing to take off, there needs to be dedicated industrial banks that set certain lending targets each year and give away cheap credit. To prevent an NPA crisis, there should be severe penalties for those who take loans and dont deliver (eg. taking a loan to set up a factory but instead putting the money into real estate). Ultimately India's MSME and smaller industrialists simply don't scale up, And there is very little capital being invested into different industrial sectors. For example, why are there still 0 new Indian companies that are trying to be our own Xiaomi or Huawei.
You are always frustrated at how India is underperforming and blame Modi and yet you give the most ridiculous solution to the problems at hand. As @RoaringTigerHiddenDragon said most companies which got loans during UPA era have failed or in the process of failing. The best foot forward right now is PLI scheme as the incentives are given based on production targets. Once there is a solid ecosystem then we can slowly implement your ideas prioritizing one sector at a time. Otherwise we will end up in square one as giving out loans in the hope that someone will create next Apple or Samsung, we will most likely end up in the same mess as we were in 2014. Let PLI schemes work properly and achieve what is intended. Then we can consolidate with more friendlier policies.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Dont bother. BJP has successfully made the country be happy with 6% growth. Wont be surprised when growth drops to 5% and they will find some way to boast as being 3rd biggest economy. Reminds me of this meme. Except you can make the podium difference 10x bigger as there will be a $20 trillion gap

View attachment 187660
More than 6% growth requires significant reforms:
- authoritarian way to acquire land for infrastructure
- uniform business rules all over India
- no anti-development political parties allowed
- all big states must follow pretty similar pro-growth models. TN cannot follow a social justice model, for example. All states must be given a constitutionally mandated growth target to achieve.
- agriculture reforms to tax high income farmers, weed out useless freebies, modernize supply chains and mechanize. Also trade agricultural goods at market rates and get rid of MSPs.
- very effective contract disputes redressal. Set strict timelines for courts to complete trials.
- ready to go land banks and quality power supply for industries
- no militant labor unions allowed like in Kerala
- set strict education and skill development goals. If you have to use the army to get people disciplined and skilled up, do so.
- reduce corruption at all levels , down to the village administration by using technology and digitization of records.
- do not give freebies without getting something productive in return
- non productive slums, squatters, rent evaders all strictly punished. No profiting from being lazy.
- tax government services in cities, towns and villages properly so local bodies can grow and develop financially.
- subsidize R&D/knowledge economy and not food/fuel/fertilizer

Can BJP and Modi do all this and still win elections? No.
So forget growth rates above 6-7% as these real structural reforms will never happen or happen very slowly.
Until anti-growth and anti-development mentality is rooted out from the majority of citizens, we will be limited to a moderate growth rate only.
 

RoaringTigerHiddenDragon

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Again I will be abused by blind devotees of BJPee for posting this
Nothing surprising. We expect well managed, homogeneous society, medium sized economies to grow faster. Though in this case, a lot of the growth is from Chinese companies shifting to Vietnam to escape the trade sanctions imposed by various countries. Now, country of origin is Vietnam and everything is fine. Such shady manipulations is why India did not join RCEP. The question is can Vietnam become a Japan through exports led growth because their local economy is limited? That requires heavy investments in R&D and getting out well reputed, branded products trusted by high income buyers. I don’t think Vietnam will do so. But who knows? They don’t have two provinces governed by different political parties fighting against each other.
‘Our diversity and complicated center-state governance and laws is not good for doing India wide business.
 

AK047

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Again I will be abused by blind devotees of BJPee for posting this
Again people are jumping to conclusions without verifying facts. Although Vietnam indeed has grown at 8 percent most of this is due to lower base effect from first quarter gdp data of 13.71 percent as Vietnam faced Covid induced lockdowns. Even in India GDP grew about 10 percent in first half of the year, If you really want a fair comparison compare last GDP quaterly data of Vietnam and India where India grew at 6.3 percent compared to their growth of 5.92 percent.
 

thebakofbakchod

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You are always frustrated at how India is underperforming and blame Modi and yet you give the most ridiculous solution to the problems at hand. As @RoaringTigerHiddenDragon said most companies which got loans during UPA era have failed or in the process of failing. The best foot forward right now is PLI scheme as the incentives are given based on production targets. Once there is a solid ecosystem then we can slowly implement your ideas prioritizing one sector at a time. Otherwise we will end up in square one as giving out loans in the hope that someone will create next Apple or Samsung, we will most likely end up in the same mess as we were in 2014. Let PLI schemes work properly and achieve what is intended. Then we can consolidate with more friendlier policies.
So just because it failed before, you wont try it again?

 

Concard

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Blademaster

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While the PLI will succeed for the higher end of manufacturing investments, it will ultimately make no big difference to India's overall manufacturing sector. Come back to this comment in 10 years and i will bet the manufacturing % of GDP will still be around 20%. For India's manufacturing to take off, there needs to be dedicated industrial banks that set certain lending targets each year and give away cheap credit. To prevent an NPA crisis, there should be severe penalties for those who take loans and dont deliver (eg. taking a loan to set up a factory but instead putting the money into real estate). Ultimately India's MSME and smaller industrialists simply don't scale up, And there is very little capital being invested into different industrial sectors. For example, why are there still 0 new Indian companies that are trying to be our own Xiaomi or Huawei.
Now a post that mostly makes sense. Please keep it up.
 

Blademaster

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And of course, the single biggest reason for growth being stuck at 6% is because there are like 8 states in the entire country that is powering the growth.
And find out which party controls the states that do not contribute to the growth at all but remains the begging states.
 

Varoon2

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Not sure about Uzbekistan, but the Gambian government never made the accusation( about the Indian made cough syrup causing deaths) , and have still not officially made it, even after the WHO's speculations. A panelist on a talk show made the good observation that thousands of doses of the cough syrup were sold/provided in Gambia. If the problem was with the medicine per se, there would be many more casualties. Of course, not a single person should lose their life, that's beyond question.
 
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SKC

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I can tell about our IT sector..

Our IT giants are L#de ke giants.. they keep undercutting each other by charging single digit dollars and paying pennies to the majority of their employees. No work life balance , no trust among employee and employer , no scope for the employee to learn new technologies while dwindling under monotonous job.
These maggots are Call centre of IT world. I don't expect a penny in R&D from them.
You guys don't understand the IT sector at all and have expectation from them which they don't cater to.

Our Indian indigenous IT giants: TCS, Infy, HCL and Wipro are not product-based companies, but they are IT services providers.

Their purpose is to not provide end to end product but to develop custom solutions for the business around the world. Along with this they are provide support for third party software being used by these companies as well as they provide whole Infra management for them.

The infra side of IT world is often overlooked by many, but it forms the backbone of the business around the world.

The product based companies are different like Zoho and Freshdesk.

Correct your view of the companies and you won't be disappointed.
 

SKC

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case in point is Anand Ranganathan, a legit scientist who is in limelight because of his political views. if he was an strong advocate for scientific temperament in Indian society instead of his political views, would he be given the amount of space in the limelight as he is getting now? the answer is no.

needless to say, his life his choice. but is a case of path not taken, by Indian society as a whole. we may never be able to calculate the loss since this path is not taken. scientific temperament has a direct correlation to a country's prosperity, especially for countries which do not have abundant natural resources.

it can also be said, political discourse is choking out all other discourse, as things stand today. there is an imbalance in the discourse.
Legit Scientist?????

Exactly what kind of science work has he done. I find him to be same JNU professor as others who just switched side after 2014. Before 2014 he used to sit with the same team.
 

SKC

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Again I will be abused by blind devotees of BJPee for posting this
Somewhere in Africa a Nation might show a growth of 20-30% as their current GP maybe few hundred Billion and they grow to few more hundred.

You will then say to migrate to that country as Indian has failed!

North Korea has only ~$25 Billion GDP. Lets say they do one small change and allow South Korean companies to start their plant in North. Their GDP will shoot up to $50-60 Billion within 1-2 year. This will make them grow by 100-120% quickly.

you will claim that North Korea is the best nation in the world and beaten US, China and Indian and will flock to North Korea?
 

ezsasa

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SKC

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ezsasa

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Is this his own Scientific research or his review and analysis of work already done in these area.

There are papers which are written on the work being done in the scientific community around the world.
burden of proof on the points you are insinuating in on you not me, if you have something to share, we can discuss.
 

SKC

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burden of proof on the points you are insinuating in on you not me, if you have something to share, we can discuss.
Ranganathan started out as a post-doctoral fellow, Department of Biochemistry, University of Cambridge, where he worked from 1998 to 1999. After a post-doctoral stint at Cambridge, Anand returned to India to join International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Delhi as a research scientist where he ran his lab for 16 years. In 2015 he joined Special Centre for Molecular Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Delhi, as an Associate Professor. His laboratory works in the area of Directed Evolution and Pathogenesis, with special emphasis on Tuberculosis and Malaria.
Ranganathan's contribution for development of a new vaccine against Tuberculosis; was widely reported by the media.
Has indeed worked as scientist.
 

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