we will try intercepting in mid course for that we need really fast interceptor missile, with space base and very long range radar to give advance warning.I think what's really going on is interception of missiles launched 5000kms away tracked and then brought down just before it enters indian air space.
Is India working on a mid course interceptor? i think there is a mistake in the article. It is an interceptor that can shoot down missiles launched 5000 kms away but over Indian airspace.we will try intercepting in mid course for that we need really fast interceptor missile, with space base and very long range radar to give advance warning.
Should be in the works. The target is 2016. May be some Israeli help on it. But one thing is certain that the author has made mistake in writing that the missile will be intercepted 5000kms away. Phew!! We don't have a ballistic missile that flies that far yet!!what about the radar to identify the 5000 km range missile at least we need radar with 1500km range right now we have only got 600 km range LRTR radar.
VK Saraswat is making a fool out of himself with such statement jack of all trades but master of noneNo, as soon as they are manufactured in China and take off from there. Btw what kind of journalist doing defence reporting would write about 5000 km range interceptor?
DRDO chief as all along said that AD1 is meant to take out 5000 km range missile. it is media which has messed up.VK Saraswat is making a fool out of himself with such statement jack of all trades but master of none
Only if we go for ship based BMD. For barak we have MF-STAR which has 250 km range.BTW manc any idea if we will mount LRTR on ship ????
source of this article is given as Pakistan View Of India's Ballistic Missile Defense System - Analysis but it is not workingPakistan View Of India's Ballistic Missile Defense System – Analysis
July 22, 2011
By Afsah Qazi
Before moving on to the debate on Indian BMD, a brief introduction to it is necessary for a common man's understanding. In a layman's words, Ballistic Missile Defense is basically a technology developed and used for countering the incoming enemy missiles with the help of interceptors, either ground based or air based. The interceptors usually are designed to hit the targets midway before they reach the re-entry phase. BMD or ABM system is actually a defensive shield that first identifies the incoming enemy missiles with the help of its advanced surveillance capabilities provided by specialized laser and radar technologies. In the second step, the interceptors are released to hit the identified targets mid way, to refrain them from hitting their desired destination. This way the unacceptable damage, that would otherwise occur is and can be prevented.
Revival of the Debate: For a long time the debate of BMD was put on the back burner due to the 1972 ABM treaty. But the debate resumed to its fullest when President Clinton walked out of the treaty in favor of this defensive shield. US was first to have the shield in the first decade of 21st century, under the leadership of President Bush. The American BMD comprises of two components. A national missile defense (NMD) for the security of continental US and a Theater Missile Defense (TMD) stationed across the globe. In fact both the components are targeted against China and its limited ICBM force, and certainly not against the rogue states; the reason widely propagated to legitimize the US defensive shield. Whatever the reason be, the fact remains that US acquisition of BMD was highly detrimental to universal arms control agenda as important components of International Non-Proliferation Regime such as ABM Treaty, MTCR and NPT stood largely violated by this move. Another negative impact was the security dilemma posed to China, which in response started to augment its ICBM capacity. China also hardened its stance in FMCT negotiations for its linkage to the de weaponization of space as BMD also violated the 1967 outer space treaty.
Indian Obsession with BMD: The only state which supported Bush's agenda of acquiring BMD as a measure to ensure the security of the larger number of states from the threat of Rogue states was India. India found in China's increasing ICBM force, an excuse for acquisition of Indian BMD. Since the history of Indo-Chinese relations has not been very smooth, India propagated that changing Chinese force postures are creating a security dilemma for India that could only be overcome by having a defensive shield against Chinese missiles. Soon after that, Indian defense research and development organization (DRDO) started collaborating with the United States and became a part of US-Indo-Israel nexus and acquired technologies such as phalcon radars and green pine radar systems as initial steps toward an independent defensive shield.
Indian Objectives; Stated and Underlying: There exists a lot of discrepancy between the stated Indian objectives and the actual underlying objectives for the development of a BMD system. The most clearly stated objective is to provide the Indian cities a defensive shield against the Chinese missiles whose increasing numbers pose a threat to Indian security. However, the fact that is not being stated is that the acquisition of BMD is a pre-requisite towards gaining a major power role, which India has been aspiring to achieve since its inception. So, in order to meet the standards set by the sole super power dominating the system, i.e. US, India started to work for a BMD program. Another underlying factor not stated clearly, but which prompts India to acquire this defensive shield is its potential role in effective implementation of Cold Start Doctrine (CSD). CSD actually calls for a highly network centric warfare that depends on ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance) capabilities and C4I2 systems. These capabilities and systems require equipments such as radars and reconnaissance aircrafts. These equipments present easy targets for incoming enemy missiles. So, for ensuring NCW India must have some mechanisms to protect its airborne equipments that are a component of CSD. This protection can only be ensured through such a defensive shield. This shows that India also aims to acquire BMD for implementing CSD with a greater confidence.
According to Pakistani strategists, and larger number of deterrence theorists, the main underlying objective of Indian acquisition of BMD is to undermine Pakistan's nuclear deterrent. After having BMD India can practice militarily adventurous policies against Pakistan, without the fear of damage caused by Pakistani retaliatory actions. So after acquiring this India will get more confident to hit Pakistan by knowing that their defensive shield can well protect them against Pakistan's responsive strikes. So, this shows that there are a lot more hidden objectives that have not been stated, but they do give a considerable impetus to India's efforts to acquire BMD.
Costs Involved: The economic costs associated with the development and deployment of an efficient missile defense system are too high as the interceptors and most of the advanced space based radar systems are to be bought from outside. The reason being that up till now India has not indigenized the production.
Economic costs apart the strategic costs are much higher. Foremost of these is the threat to stability of deterrence that has been built over decades. Deterrence is workable only in the presence of mutual vulnerability where both opponents have the capability to threaten the other and both at the very same time have the realization of the equivalent destructive capacity of the other. So, both practice restraint on their actions as this mutual vulnerability is based on the balance of terror on both sides.
A system like BMD disturbs this balance because it makes one side totally fearless and ignorant of the other, giving it confidence to act without any restraint.
This is how it destroys the carefully constructed stability of traditional nuclear deterrence. That is why Pakistan's nuclear posture of maintaining a minimum credible deterrence will be left non credible by Indian BMD. As a result, unwillingly Pakistan will be forced to engage in a suicidal arms race that may lead to unprecedented economic, political and security instability inside Pakistan.
However, India will not remain untouched by these consequences. BMD acquisition will lead the road towards a bifurcated arms and missile race, although relatively mild, directed against Pakistan on one side and China on the other. It will be difficult for India, the second most populous nation in the world to face the economic constraints posed by this expensive arms race. Another cost will come in the shape of enhanced partnership between Pakistan and China that is already evident.
BMD and the Credibility of National Protection: The greatest debate about Indian BMD is one regarding its efficiency and efficacy once it is developed and deployed i.e. to know whether it will be 100% efficient or not. For having that estimate we need to compare it with the standard it is trying to match which is the American missile defense system. With that we come to know that US took decades of R & D to deploy the system effectively, than how will India be able to deploy after her efforts of less than a decade since India is much less technologically advanced than US. Secondly no one has ever claimed 100% efficiency of US BMD system, which gives an estimate that how efficient Indian BMD can be, when only first phase of its two tier program has been developed and not yet deployed.
Secondly, the logic tells that the threat form China will continue to linger, as the initial capability gap will continue to exist because China is not standing still to watch India come to match her. Even if not working to have its own shield, being highly advanced in technology, this is not at all a difficult task for China to come up with alternate technologies to counter and penetrate the Indian BMD. HQ-9 interceptor missile can easily destroy the Indian missile interceptors.
Last but not least, looking at its efficacy in Indo-Pak theatre, it is not a good option. For Pakistan what is a disadvantage in a conventional environment will prove to be an advantage in the nuclear environment. The short flight time of Pakistani missiles and its geographical proximity with India will make it difficult for Indian systems to intercept all Pakistani missiles successfully. So, Pakistan's lack of strategic/spatial depth will prove to be an asset here rather than a liability. Moreover, as Pakistan's fragile economy does not allow for a BMD system, she can look for other options. Alternate and appropriate technologies can be used to counter Indian interceptors and penetrate them. These technologies can include the super and hyper sonic cruise missiles on which Pakistan is currently working. ECMs (electronic counter measures) serving as decoys for deception purposes to make real targets unidentifiable, and MIRVs are also among effective technologies to counter the interceptors.
All the above debate about the efficiency of Indian BMD and whether it can be countered or not shows that there is no guarantee of the output efficiency of such a system and so Indian BMD is a more a source of regional instability than being a source of providing credible national deterrence to Indian cities.
About the Author: The author is a research fellow at South Asian Strategic Stability Institute SASSI, Islamabad. She holds M.Sc degree in International relations from Quaid-e-Azam University Pakistan. Her areas of interest are South Asian security issues and deterrence postures.
Rida Zeenat knows about two fail test of BMD............ does she knows something which we dont.Indian Pursuit Of Ballistic Missile Defence Program – Analysis
Written by: Rida Zeenat
March 31, 2011
Recently India conducted a successful ballistic missile defence test which was capable enough to intercept and kill the incoming missile. This shows that Indian ballistic missile defence program comprising of long range tracking radar, command and control system and the interceptor, is maturing at a faster pace. As a result, the South Asian strategic stability would be challenged as there are diversification of threats and limited response options, BMD adds value to the complexity of the region.
India believes in nuclear dominance in the region and aspires to have extended self defence. It aims to become a global power. The technological edge that it is struggling to acquire over Pakistan and China has been to some extent proven by the successful ballistic missile defence test it conducted on 6th March 2011. Till now India has conducted six tests out of which four were successful and two failed due to technological reasons . But now India would proudly be a part of the elite club of the 'BMD haves' which includes United States, Russia and Israel.
India acquired the system with the technological assistance of United States and Israel. Indian BMD program has a two-tiered system namely Prithvi Air Defence (PAD) for high altitude interception and Advanced Air Defence (AAD) for lower altitude interception. The PAD missiles are for intercepting ballistic missiles at altitudes between 50-80 km and the Advanced Air Defence (AAD) missile is for destroying them at heights ranging 15-30 km.
India
India's future plans include two new anti ballistic missiles that can intercept Inter Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM) namely Advanced Defence (AD-1 and AD-2) which would be capable of intercepting and destroying a missile at a range around 5,000 km (3,100 mi)
India justifies its acquisition of BMD by stating that as India has a no first use policy (NFU) therefore in order to ensure its second strike capability and to be able to absorb the first strike and retaliate it needs BMD. This would add value to its deterrent capability. Indian BMD is theatre missile defence it cannot protect the entire Indian soil but can only give protection to its some land-based strategic locations. It has Nuclear submarines INS Arihant which would be inducted in Indian Navy by 2012 will protect its seas.
Another dimension that adds fuel to the fire is the Indian plan to accommodate the Anti-Satellite (ASAT) as apart of its BMD program. India believes that its high-altitude interceptors can indeed serve as Anti–Satellite weapons (ASAT) which would be capable of destroying low orbit satellites. India perceives that its space assets are not secure and are threatened from China, as China possesses Anti-Satellite weapons therefore it has all the right to acquire ASAT which will ultimately enhance its security in space. Moreover before a legally binding framework comes into being which would prohibit the acquisition of Anti-Satellite weapons India wants to be the part of the club of 'ASAT haves' rather than 'have-nots'.
DRDO Director General V.K. Saraswat announced during 97th Indian Science Congress "India was developing lasers and an exo-atmospheric kill vehicle that could be combined to produce a weapon to destroy enemy satellites in orbit, kill vehicle, which is needed for intercepting the satellite, needs to be developed, and that work is going on as part of the ballistic missile defense program by 2014."
India is on the road to acquire laser-based anti-ballistic missile systems called Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs). DEW weapons can kill incoming ballistic missiles by bombarding them with subatomic particles or electromagnetic waves. The weapons are capable of intercepting missiles soon after they are launched towards India. According to DRDO scientist the DEW laser weapon is capable of producing 25-kilowatt pulses that can destroy a ballistic missile within seven kilometers. One of these weapons is the air defense dazzler, which can engage enemy aircraft and helicopters at a range of 10 kilometers.
The Indian pursuit of BMD and its goal to accommodate ASAT will have regional implications. It not only provokes Pakistan but also China to take requisite steps in order to have counter measures to overcome Indian BMD. As a result of which China conducted successful BMD test in 2010 and is on the road to acquire effective BMD program in near future.
Whereas, Pakistan's economy does not support it to acquire BMD program. Pakistan would feel insecure as its counter measure strike capability is not sufficient and secondly it does not possess any assured second strike capability. That is the reason that it sticks to First Use policy to equalize the deterrent equation. It would ultimately engage in acquiring additional missiles and launchers to devise a much larger attacking force which would elude the Indian interceptors, leading to triangular security dilemma in the region.
Moreover Pakistan would improve the nuclear arsenals qualitatively and quantitatively as it considers the nuclear weapons an integral part of its defence system which would result in nuclear instability.
This rapid technological inflow, aim to have a comprehensive space program and western discriminatory approaches to make India a 'Shining India' is very threatening for Pakistan and China also up to an extent. India has been accommodated into the four export control regimes namely Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), Australia Group (AG), Wassanar Arrangment (WA) and Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) would further make India technology enabler and legitimizing India's status.
Indian defence and space companies DRDO and ISRO respectively have been removed from entity list which would provide India hi-tech and nuclear technology access. India will further pursue its space program and struggle to get the technological edge over Pakistan and China.
This shows that India would be able to pursue its ballistic missile defence program and is planning to deploy it in near future and If India does so it will assure its second strike capability. Although BMD is defensive technology, highly expensive and technologically uncertain but its possession fortifies a state to adopt offensive policies. India has moved from deterrence to pre-emption compelling states to further improve their response option which destabilizes the strategic equation of the entire region.
About the author:
Rida Zeenat
Rida Zeenat is working as a Research Fellow at the South Asian Strategic Stability Institute (SASSI). She holds M.Sc. degree in Defence and Diplomatic Studies from Fatima Jinnah Women University, Pakistan. Her M.Sc. dissertation was based on "Pakistan's Nuclear Doctrine of Credible Minimum Deterrence". She has also participated at various current affairs television programs.
Indian Pursuit Of Ballistic Missile Defence Program - Analysisjames says:
March 31, 2011 at 1:40 pm
India needs to protect itself from all it's hostile nations.
As more modern technology flows into India.
India will make ' quantum ' leaps in missile/space/Asat technology.
It is foolish of Pakistan and China to continue to quantitatively amass nuclear weapons.
As one noted US analyst noted"¦
Once India has it's 'thorium fast breeder' reactors up and running [ assuming India has not already done so ]
India will produce enough 'fissile material' to produce and endless supply of nuclear weapons.
It would be best to ' befriend ' India rather than to compete with her..
reply
PS! says:
April 1, 2011 at 2:51 am
Ms. Rida Zeenat,
I would like you to answer this simple question:
Since when has acquiring a missile shield become a "challenge to South Asian strategic stability"?
If an opponent has a sword, is keeping a shield an offensive measure to hurt others OR is it a measure to protect oneself?
It is like a school bully saying that the kid who was being threatened every day is now walking into school with an armor. This is destabilizing the bully's plans of striking a few blows now and then. Just because the Kid is big and strong does not make it invulnerable to surprise death blows if planned as a part of a surprise attack. Just because the bully is small, it does not make the bully vulnerable because the kid's intentions are good.
To take this analogy further, you justify in equivalent terms that the bully should have some more weapons now to pierce the armor the kid wears to class or prepare to attack the armor from multiple places to get around it.
In that context, your article makes sense and I see your viewpoint – it reduces the impact of blackmail of Pakistan's stated First Use policy. It feels thwarted and out-witted. So it will in the short term deride the armor wearing kid in school, and start finding ways to get past that armor.
Ever thought what the bully has done in 1948, 1965, 1971, 1999 in Kargil – it has always engaged in First Use or First Attack in the hope that it will succeed in the conventional theater. It threatens to raise the stakes in a flawed nuclear equipped logic.
The big kid has only raised its hands in self defense. You need to realize that some big kids can be gentle and caring. The small bully needs to grow up and mature. It needs to pause and look at its own actions and implications. It needs to look inwards and not point fingers and guns and nuclear tipped missiles) at a gentle giant.
Think. Think Again. And again. Let the bully look inside and examine its own insecurities and short comings. In the meantime, let the gentle giant continue its development – it needs to get out of school and contribute to the world at large.
Indian nuclear statement would be deafening for the enemies once the thorium research starts to pay off. It should be in focus.
Last time I checked, reports suggested India was ahead of all other players in Thorium research.
Lets hope one day our nuclear weapons would be lesser accident prone, credits to Thorium which is much safer than current material such as Uranium.
Regards,
Virendra
sir our PAD is almost same, it has different seeker, but same system, range is low right now but PDV will solve the problem soon and later on it will be launch from ship.
Interesting, I hope our own BMD one day have such capabilities..