America-India Bhai-Buy?
President Barack Obama’s nearly eight years in office form a remarkable arc. He moved from pursuing a G-2 condominium with China, excluding New Delhi, to crafting a joint strategic document with India.
Obviously, his advisers — Hillary Clinton was a big fan of G-2 — woke up in time before gains made by the Bush administration with India were squandered. Things warmed up slowly and the trust has certainly grown. But questions remain on how far either is willing to go for the other.
To what extent will Washington adjust its broader national security policies in South Asia to bolster India? And how tightly is New Delhi willing to embrace America? It’s noteworthy that the once-reluctant US government today enthusiastically supports making F-16s in India.
But will it sell armed Predator drones now that India has joined the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)? Or would the ancient American logic of not altering the basic military balance in South Asia continue to dominate?
Defence minister Manohar Parrikar’s Washington foray was to nail down the big things. He managed to lead India to the signing table after more than a decade of indecision and opposition to sign a logistics agreement, allowing the two militaries to use each other’s facilities. It should extend the Indian Navy’s reach in the east.
At the same time, US Secretary of State John Kerry and Commerce Secretary Penny Pritzker were in New Delhi for the second Strategic and Commercial Dialogue, leading a team of officials from 12 US agencies. As a senior state department official said, the meetings are an opportunity to “reflect upon where we have come” and “where we want to go”.
Obama and Prime Minister Narendra Modi have met seven times since 2014 and will meet again for the G-20 summit in China next month. The key issue for Obama remains the ratification of the climate change agreement to solidify his legacy. Kerry most certainly would have pushed India on that. But India has linked ratification to its membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) where China and a few other countries opposed India’s entry in June.
Would Obama spend a bit of his remaining political capital to make things happen before he leaves office? India has met the requirements for admission into the NSG as US officials repeatedly stress. But US diplomatic muscle hasn’t been able to translate eligibility into membership. Yet.
On the defence front, progress is more tangible. Parrikar’s main objective with Defense Secretary Ashton Carter was to crystallise details of technology transfer issues, the crux of India being designated a “major defence partner”.
Parrikar had to judge what technology the US government is actually willing to part with, given the strong pitch by American defence majors offering to shift entire aircraft production lines to India. Company executives talk in superlative terms but all the lethal stuff (air-to-air missiles, Aesa (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar and systems to identify friend or foe) is controlled by the US government.
Lockheed Martin wants to move its F-16/block 70 manufacturing line to India so long as it gets an order of 100 planes from the Indian Air Force. “The F-16s we would produce in India would be the most advanced and tailored to their requirements,” Abhay Paranjape, director of business development, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics, told me.
The IAF has already been “shown” the improvements made since F-16 was in the running for the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA). Besides creating jobs under ‘Make in India’, the process would help the country become part of a valuable global supply chain. “What we have offered is unprecedented,” insists Paranjape.
But as always, the devil is in the detail. Contrary to some reports, India will not control who buys the planes or spare parts. It would be Washington. Those getting excited about choking off Pakistan and scoring a ‘strategic win’ should hold their horses.
The big questions remain unanswered. Would it be licensed manufacturing and broad technology transfer? Or acquisition by India of technology owned by Lockheed? The latter would make India the owner of intellectual property, allowing for more control on exports.
Then there is the mother of all dilemmas: Pakistan uses older versions of the F-16s. The IAF may not want to fly the same aircraft. Sweden’s Gripen, which is also in the running, may score on that front.
What’s clear is that New Delhi will drill down and vet what’s on offer to get the best deal and bend the arc India’s way.
http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/08/america-india-bhai-buy.html
