How much longer can russia hold out against china

Blademaster

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Let me get this straight. The Indian members on this forum are actually suggesting the PLA's 38th and 39th Group Armies can actually march north?
Up to a certain distance. They have to if they want the ability to march into N. Korea and deter anyone from the north to interfere with China's operations in N. Korea.

Remember that during the Korea War, USSR was the biggest player in N. Korea's sphere. China was distant second.
 

roma

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Hi Blademaster

Let me get this straight. The Indian members on this forum are actually suggesting the PLA's 38th and 39th Group Armies can actually march north?
refering to the quote, i think you may have missed seeing that the 38th and 39th group armies that Officer of Engineers was refering to are PLA's and not russia's.

so both of you are actually saying the same thing ?
that russia can walk in ?
thanks ,
R
 

Yusuf

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Let me get this straight. The Indian members on this forum are actually suggesting the PLA's 38th and 39th Group Armies can actually march north?
No Sir,
A member posed a question regarding declining Russian population and China using it's population to reassert some territorial claims. No suggestions about the 38th and 39th here. Not even discussed.
 

Yusuf

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refering to the quote, i think you may have missed seeing that the 38th and 39th group armies that Officer of Engineers was refering to are PLA's and not russia's.

so both of you are actually saying the same thing ?
that russia can walk in ?
thanks ,
R
Yes. I told that earlier. The Chinese don't have that capability to deter Russia.
 

Officer of Engineers

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Apologies for the late reply.

By treaty, both Russia and China are to keep their respective military (though not police) forces 100 miles from the border.

The 38GA and 39GA are the only two PLA armies with the motor transports to go into Russia. In short, these two corps will have travel 200 miles before meeting a Russian army.

Anyone wants to bet on those odds?
 

Vladimir79

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Apologies for the late reply.

By treaty, both Russia and China are to keep their respective military (though not police) forces 100 miles from the border.
5th Army and 83rd Airbourne at Ussuriysk is only 50-60km from the border. 35th Army at Belogorsk is only 40km.
 

Vladimir79

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To get back on topic here. Our demographic situation is projected to be leveled out by 2011 so it isnt' like we are going to disappear. Of course our population is nothing like China but then we don't need a bunch of conscripted cannon fodder with the military we are building for the future. If China decides to strike they will be quickly wiped off the face of the globe. Most of our population base is spread across the European steppe which is out of range of most of China's nuklear weapons. Those that can reach it will be facing S-300 and S-400 incerceptors which can be armed with nuklear warheads assuring the kill. Our nuklear triad protects us from such a threat.
 

Officer of Engineers

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5th Army and 83rd Airbourne at Ussuriysk is only 50-60km from the border. 35th Army at Belogorsk is only 40km.
Sorry, Vlad, the Chinese is somewhat ambigious on what they mean by Chinese forces. Pockets of regiments are accepted because of food and water issues but whole armies are not. The whole Chinese 38th and 39th armies are not kept within 100 miles as per their treaty obligations. I really have not read the Russian side of the treaty agreement.
 

Yusuf

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So do they have an unequal treaty?
 

Vladimir79

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The notes I have refer to the 1991 Agreement.
If you are refering to the border agreement, military bases were not an issue. Neither of us would dictate to the other where we can put our military in our own territory, especially when they had already been there for years.
 

Officer of Engineers

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I will have to re-read my old sources but that was over 18 years ago but the impression I got was the 100 mile agreement was agreed to at least by the Chinese. Give me a day or two ... actually a week to climb into my attic.
 

roma

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russian miltary of the future

Of course our population is nothing like China but then we don't need a bunch of conscripted cannon fodder with the military we are building for the future. If China decides to strike they will be quickly wiped off the face of the globe.
- any online sources to give a clue about the " russian military of the future " ? saves us a load of googling ( but perhaps they may all be in russian ! ). TIA
 

Officer of Engineers

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If you are refering to the border agreement, military bases were not an issue. Neither of us would dictate to the other where we can put our military in our own territory, especially when they had already been there for years.
Sorry, Vlad, 100ksm, not 100 miles

Mutual Reduction of Military Forces in the Border Areas

Mutual Reduction of Military Forces in the Border Areas

Provisions
The Agreement on Mutual Reduction of Military Forces in the Border Areas stipulates that China and Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will reduce their military forces in the border areas to the minimum level compatible with their friendly and good-neighborly relations, a level that shall not go beyond their defense needs. The geographical limits for the agreement's application are a 100-kilometer zone on both sides of the border. No 100-kilometer wide "vacuum" will be created, since troops will remain where they are. The border lines between China and the other four countries total more than 7,000 kilometers. None of the parties shall use or threaten to use force against the other party or parties, neither shall they seek unilateral military superiority. They will reduce and limit the size of their ground force, air force, air aviation and border guard units as well as the quantity of main categories of their armaments and military equipment deployed in the border areas as deep as 100 kilometers from their border. Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan can have 3,900 tanks, 3,810 of which are the Russian quota, in the area bordering China. In addition, Russia can deploy 4,500 armored fighting vehicles there. The same tank ceiling has also been set for China. A 15-percent reduction in the present Russian military grouping in the 100-km border zone with China is also envisaged. The parties will exchange relevant information and data on the military forces in the border areas; and they will monitor and verify the implementation of the Agreement. They will also exchange regularly relevant military information about the areas, which will be kept secret to any third party.

Status
Talks on the accord initially began between China and the former Soviet Union in November 1989, in line with the agreement reached by the then top leaders of the two countries on the issue. In April 1990, the Governments of China and the former Soviet Union signed an agreement on guiding principles of reduction of military forces and confidence building in the military field in border areas. After the former Soviet Union broke up and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was formed, the talks resumed in 1992 between China and the four CIS members -- Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan andTajikistan. On 26 April 1996, the presidents of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed an agreement on confidence building in the military field in border areas in Shanghai, China. In April 1997, China and Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan signed the Agreement on Mutual Reduction of Military Forces in the Border Areas. It is proposed to implement this process over two years within the framework of the reform of the Russia's Armed Forces. The agreement, valid until the end of the year 2020.
 

Vladimir79

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Officer of Engineers

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Vlad,

As I said before, I was commenting from the Chinese side. The 38GA and 39GA are not within the treaty boundaries.
 

Martian

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Far Eastern Russia (i.e. Siberia) contains only six million Russians because it is very cold during the winter with temperatures around -40 degrees Celsius. I think Far Eastern Russia is too cold to support any sizable human population. Just my two cents.
 

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