Experts worry that India is creating new fuel for an arsenal of H-bombs

[I_PLAY_BAD]

No, Pakistan won't for a couple of reason:
1. India currently doesn't have H-bomb according to scientists in P5;
2. For the target like Pakistan, H-bomb is overkill: India's current nuclear weapons are enough to bring unaffordable damage to Pakistan;
3. Pakistan's nuclear force can bring unaffordable damage to India as well, India's next generation nuclear weapon won't change that. The only way can change the nuclear balance between 2 country is the quantity of nuclear missiles and nuclear war system. Currently, only US and Russia have the number and the operational system, Chinese is on the way of building the system. India is still years if not decades away from starting point.
4. If India start to build a H-bomb force, Indian will immediately put themselves in the target list of each one of P5. It is good news for Pakistan.

So much for your incorrigible analysis...go take off dude.....

 

[I_PLAY_BAD]

No, Pakistan won't for a couple of reason:
1. India currently doesn't have H-bomb according to scientists in P5;
2. For the target like Pakistan, H-bomb is overkill: India's current nuclear weapons are enough to bring unaffordable damage to Pakistan;
3. Pakistan's nuclear force can bring unaffordable damage to India as well, India's next generation nuclear weapon won't change that. The only way can change the nuclear balance between 2 country is the quantity of nuclear missiles and nuclear war system. Currently, only US and Russia have the number and the operational system, Chinese is on the way of building the system. India is still years if not decades away from starting point.
4. If India start to build a H-bomb force, Indian will immediately put themselves in the target list of each one of P5. It is good news for Pakistan.

So much for your incorrigible analysis...go take off dude.....
Chinese friend has taken a precautionary view that India is fast catching up.....

 

[warrior monk]

Agreed, but don't we need the U235 in the tamper-pusher?
Obtaining raw materials is a big problem for us. Yes we do have enough for the first strike but almost nothing for the second strike. The way India sees itself, independent and strong, it would need to have the capability to nuke China, America if necessary and some of Europe. Of course, it is the delivery vehicles which get us there. But at the end, the MIRVs have to pack th punch too.
Do you think India can scale up to 500s in say, 30-40 years?

1 )For tamper/pusher high Z materials are required like U 238 (natural/depleted) , lead etc not necessarily HEU.

2)India will have a full fledged triad with credible counter strike ( there is no such thing as second strike capabilities in the next 10 years with 5 to 6 SSBNs . India can achieve a very high warhead count in the near future like say 10 to 15 years or so . I don't think US or Europe will be the target unless they become our enemies which is unlikely , targets mostly will remain in Asia.

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

Indian nuclear arsenal should be focused on China.

Conventional war-heads tipped on our strategic missiles are enough to punish Pakistan and stop them existing as a nation. If we do not have such conventional capability then we must invest in it.

Being a small country as compare to India Pakistan should be our experimental specimen how we can tactically defeat them without throwing planet busters at them. A challenging task must be put forth to our military minds to develop flexible punitive blue print (without water-downing our current nuclear doctrine) to defeat Pakistan. Applying such blue print during a war with Pakistan will position India as formidable military power that will tremble its future adversaries for next decades to come.

Being on defense forum I expect posters to be good Indian defense watcher. I was sad to see no one @Yusuf (including me) discussed recent 3 command meet presided by PM Modi at INS Vikramaditya where such warfare of swift and tactical imprint has already been stressed upon by the Prime minister and Defense minister.

Link 1

Link 2







Coming back to topic:

Nuclear weapons are very precious and at the end it will be USA, Russia and UK et al that will come after us seeing our depleted numbers; to de-nuke. As long as their is ambiguity with the numbers, India can always tell them to fuck off.

As it has been said umpteen times; discussion on yield is futile, the focus should be on foolproof delivery and reducing reaction time. These two are most daunting tasks which requires addressing large number of issues from military exercises, networking, upgrading military installations, making and preparing cities for nuclear war, protecting assets of strategic importance and last but not least political decision.

Given Pak's development of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons, India has to redefine its nuclear doctrine to include tactical weapons. I do not think Pak being a nuclear power can be contained just by conventional weapons. I am not sure what kind of punitive action will prevent Pak from using nukes in case of big military defeat.

 

[hit&run]

Given Pak's development of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons, India has to redefine its nuclear doctrine to include tactical weapons. I do not think Pak being a nuclear power can be contained just by conventional weapons. I am not sure what kind of punitive action will prevent Pak from using nukes in case of big military defeat.

Like a military professional said there is nothing called tactical nukes. I can explain why he is right even in Indian context.

I am quoting another para from Link 1 I posted above

“Our strategic deterrence is robust and reliable, in accordance with our nuclear doctrine, and our political will is clear,” PM said.

and another quote from Link 2 analysed by the author

PM Modi also nipped in the bud, all the questions being raised about India’s nuclear doctrine, because of Pakistan’s threat of using tactical nuclear weapons against India. “Our strategic deterrence is robust and reliable, in accordance with our nuclear doctrine, and our political will is clear,” he said, laying to rest all calls for revision of India’s nuclear doctrine.

The author here missed to mention that above policy PM clarified even laid rest to confusion like political will and Pakistani delusions they recently tried to propagate, Link 3 that India will/should not use nukes to retaliate Pakistani tactical nuke attack on India and Indian forces.

There are many posters like @LETHALFORCE @sayareakd @Yusuf and others saying the same for years now. To me such categorical statement coming directly from PM is unprecedented. It seems like his advisers read plenty of online discussion where bloggers have been discussing India's nuclear doctrine without corroboration; but not anymore since it has been affirmed by the state head i.e. directly came from horse's mouth.

In my opening post I was trying to suggest that we neither need tactical nor high yield nukes to defeat Pakistan. No way I am suggesting that there should be moratorium on using them against Pakistan. I am rather in favor of not only increasing the number to become a war fighting nuclear power from a deterrent power (long term) but reducing the reaction time as well.

The word I carefully used was 'flexible doctrine' where we should be sophisticated enough to out maneuver Pakistani fortifications (swift) but also be able cripple them with precision conventional warheads to save our precious nuclear arsenal in case our numbers are limited and somehow P4-5 are aware of it.

That is why I used the word ambiguity but we all know it is vague and subjective term, because these powers invest millions to track nuclear weapon programs of nuclear capable states.

Now coming back to your point of operational viability of Pakistani Tactical nukes and Indian response.

I would like to reveal that on few instances I have been alarmist on Pakistani tactical nukes but that had nothing to do with it actual military utility or threat but propaganda.

I am still not convinced, that it will be able deter our advances. I see the whole tactical nuke hype coming from Pakistan as a smoke screen hiding something which we should look for carefully.

So far this bravado is proving out to be counter productive for Pakistan as no one is ready to buy their argument of acquiring such arsenal to deter India.

Also I do not buy this argument that we can not defeat them conventionally, that negates the whole purpose of us existing as a military might. Not only that the doctrine of nuclear deterrence gets compromised once nukes are tossed at them in preemption.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

I don't think US or Europe will be the target unless they become our enemies which is unlikely , targets mostly will remain in Asia.

No, they'll automatically become enemies because whenever national powers balance each other, countries try to put their interests above to demonstrate their empire. Remember, US and China were friends some day.

 

[Mad Indian]

You cover more landmass if you have many small bombs than if you have a few big bombs.

Let's suppose you want to cover a surface of X square units. That'll be the surface area of a circle, so you can get the radius from it: area = πr², so your radius is √(X/π). And from that you also get the volume: (4/3)πr³, with r being √(X/π), v = (4/3)X√(X/π). If you now want to double the surface covered, from X to 2X, you'll have to increase the volume by more than two: since you multiply X by √X to get the volume, you'll multiply the volume by twice the square root of two, approximatively 2.828.

So if you want to double the surface area covered by the blast, you can either use one single bomb which needs to basically triple its energy, or you can use two small bombs. In both cases you'll get twice the surface area, but with a single bomb it's more expensive.

And this scales up well. Basically with several bombs you'll only have to increase the payload by the number of bombs; but with a single bomb you have to increase it by that number times its square root. Want to triple the area? With three bombs you triple the payload; with one single bomb you need to multiply the payload by 5.2. Four times the area? In a single bomb, that requires eight times the payload. Suppose you want to cover ten times the surface area: you can use ten bombs, or you can use one bomb which has 32 times the payload. A hundred times the surface area? Either 100 bombs, or a single bomb that has a thousand times the payload.

Many small bombs will win over a few big bombs all the time.


I read the above post in another forum on Why bigger fewer bombs are way less efficient that smaller more numerous bombs., Hopefully it will put an end to all this endless calls for 50-60 MT bombs which serve no practical purpose other than dick measuring. But of course, if thats what we are going for, then i am all for it

 

[Mad Indian]

I don't think US or Europe will be the target unless they become our enemies which is unlikely , targets mostly will remain in Asia.

For all intends and purposes , we should rather be prepared for such an eventuality whether we need it or not

 

[LETHALFORCE]

I have said many times in the past that a nuclear exchange between Pakistan and India is detrimental for both sides since we share the same water supply;
But that does not mean Pakistan will not use .

Two options that India has one confirmed one unconfirmed.

Explosives developed which cause the destruction of nukes without nuclear material or radioactivity. This is developed.
Search the forum we have had info in a thread in the past(see below)

Second is a neutron bomb which will cause destruction without damaging infrastructure.

We have a thread india's neutron bomb capability

For most responsible nations nuclear weapons are a last line weapon but for Pakistan they are a frontline agent making the equation more complicated and placing a death wish on themselves.


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[LETHALFORCE]

Press Information Bureau
Government of India
Ministry of Defence
30-November-2010 17:21 IST
Pune Based DRDO Lab Makes Most Powerful Conventional Explosive
Move over RDX! That’s passé for the needs of the Indian Armed Forces. The DRDO is developing a powerful explosive, - the CL-20, that can substantially reduce the weight and size of the warhead while packing much more punch. In fact, the RDX is not the standard explosive in use with the Indian Armed Forces; the warheads are mostly packed with HMX, FOX-7 or amorphous Boron.

Scientists at the Pune-based High Energy Materials Research Laboratory (HEMRL) have already synthesized adequate quantity of CL-20 in the laboratory. “It is the most powerful non-nuclear explosive yet known to man,” says Dr. AK Sikder, Joint Director, HEMRL, who heads the High Energy Materials Division. The compound, ‘Indian CL-20’ or ICL-20, was indigenously synthesized in the HEMRL laboratory using inverse technology, he added. “The HEMRL has taken India to an elite club of countries with advanced capabilities in the field of Energetic Materials,” said Shri Manish Bhardwaj, a senior Scientist with the HEMRL. In fact, the CL-20 is such a fascination for the HEMRL that a larger-than-life size model of the compound occupies the pride of place as one enters the portals of the main building of the DRDO's premier lab in Pune.

CL-20, so named after the China Lake facility of the Naval Air Weapons Station in California, US, was first synthesized by Dr. Arnold Nielson in 1987. CL-20, or Octa-Nitro-Cubane, is a Nitramine class of explosive 15 times as powerful as HMX, His/Her Majesty Explosive or High Melting Explosive or Octogen. The HMX itself is more than four times as potent as the Research Developed Explosive or Royal Demolition Explosive or Cyclonite or Hexogen, commonly known as RDX.

“CL-20 offers the only option within the next 10-15 years to meet the requirements of the Indian Armed Forces for Futuristic Weapons,” said Dr. Sikder. “CL-20 -based Shaped Charges significantly improve the penetration over armours,” he said, adding that it could be used in the bomb for the 120-mm main gun mounted on the MBT-Arjun. “But the costs of mass production of ICL-20 are still prohibitive,” said Dr. Sikder. Compared to Rs.750 per kilogram it takes to produce RDX in the factory today, the HMX is worth about Rs.6,000 per kg while a kilogram of CL-20 costs a whopping Rs.70,000 per kg.

“We have a tie up with industry partner for intermediate commercial exploitation of ICL-20,” said Dr. A. Subhananda Rao, Director, HEMRL. About 100 kgs of ICL-20 has been produced by HEMRL in collaboration with the Premier Explosives Limited (PEL). The CL-20, which looks like limestone or grainy talcum powder, is being manufactured by the PEL factory at Peddakanlukur village in Nalgonda district of Andhra Pradesh. The Rs.60 crores Hyderabad-based company bagged the DRDO’s Defence Technology Absorption Award, 2007 worth Rs.Ten Lakhs, presented by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh on May 12, 2008, their most prestigious award, claimed company sources.

“The advantage with the CL-20 is its Reduced Sensitivity,” said Dr. Sikder, enabling easy handling and transportation of the lethal weaponry. In fact, the HEMRL is concentrating on the Reduced Shock Sensitivity (RSS) explosives, such as RSS-RDX, which costs about Rs.1,500-2,000 per kg, and RSS-HMX. “There is a whole array of low sensitivity material or Insensitive Munitions we are working on,” said Dr. Rao. “The world around there is a lot of R&D being pumped into what are called the Green Explosives, as also the advanced Insensitive Munitions (IM) and RSS explosives,” added Dr. Sikder, which reduces the chances of mishap and loss to M4, - Men, Money, Materials and Machines.

Praween Kavi in Pune
http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=67872


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[no smoking]

Well India has thermonuclear weapon and it has been already accepted by rest of the countries that S1 test yield calculation was in line with the announced yield .

Please, just post a link (non-India source) saying that all P5 accepted the fact of India possessing thermonuclear weapon.

 

[no smoking]

S Asian peoples are highly emotional. If either India or Pakistan were to do something spectacular the other would follow suit immediately claiming to be be doing better.

But neither of them can hide the truth from P5. Because whatever trick the 2 countries are playing, the P5 have done lot more.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Please, just post a link (non-India source) saying that all P5 accepted the fact of India possessing thermonuclear weapon.

P5 don't consider us even a nuclear power. Even if 1998s thermonuclear test was a failure, India has developed many technologies in civilian sector to demonstrate its capability now. We can make FBRs, Ion thrusters and small reactors for medical, advanced particle accelerator, our own version of CERN and very large hard water plants but some people still think that we can't miniaturize them for warhead or can't make a thermonuclear reactor. How funny.

But neither of them can hide the truth from P5. Because whatever trick the 2 countries are playing, the P5 have done lot more.

Like I mentioned above, Pakistan has not demonstrated any of new techs. They have been building up quantity without keeping in mind that India can make 5 times higher nukes if stops electric supply at war time or can destroy their nukes in mid air.
Yes, India is years behind P5 in tech:
Reason: P5 have no balls to be challenged by any fastly emerging third world country. So, these cowards so called Great Powers put sanctions on us..
We are doing all major military achievements which ensures our status for entry in UNSC.
We are 6th nation to build nuclear sub.

5th nation to build an ICBM(if you doubt that Agni 5 can reach 8500km, kindly compare its specifications with other 8000km ICBMSs).

5th nation to build a large carrier.

4th nation to have anti missile shield.

We are a regional power.

If things go in schedule, we will be world's fourth nation after US,Russia and China to have
more than 50 subs.
Having hypersonic vehicles.
Having global (15-16K km range) ICBMs.
3rd nation to build nuclear carrier and 2nd supercarrier.
4th nation to build nuclear triad(which is almost done till we induct them in February 2016).
It doesn't make sense to keep India our of UNSC and calling countries like France and Britain"great powers".
If not now, P5 will have to expand to P6 for India in future(probably decade). Till then, our Human Development indicators will also closer to today's China and Brazil and nobody here may be targeting our lifestyles.

 

[Scarface]

Please, just post a link (non-India source) saying that all P5 accepted the fact of India possessing thermonuclear weapon.

The P5 can deny the existence of India for all I care

What matters is the ground reality,regardless of whether or not P5 recognizes it.

As the post above me has already said, P5 doesn't even consider us a nuclear power despite all the evidence to the contrary.

The P5 is a poltically motivated group, not some unbiased herald of truth

 

[LETHALFORCE]

P5 view is not the Chinese view. China is the only third world member and p5 in no way a representative of P5. So always separate Chinese view from p5 view. India's thermonuclear weapons are China specific. If China was not scared shitless why would they proliferate to Pakistan?


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[LETHALFORCE]

Japan is not a p5 member and they have the third/fourth highest fissile material reserves in the world.

Japan Nuclear Material Reserves are Serious World risk china

http://www.beijingnews.net/index.php/sid/237530813

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[rockey 71]

Japan is not a p5 member and they have the third/fourth highest fissile material reserves in the world.

Japan Nuclear Material Reserves are Serious World risk china

http://www.beijingnews.net/index.php/sid/237530813

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True. Has also been suspected of Taiwan, S Africa, and Brazil

 

[warrior monk]

Please, just post a link (non-India source) saying that all P5 accepted the fact of India possessing thermonuclear weapon.

People refuting India's thermonuclear test

1) Think tank "experts" who don't understand how nuclear weapons work and yields calculated .

2) Washed out physicists who are relying on unreliable and second hand data , considered a grave crime in scientific fraternity .

3) Bloggers who know didlly squat about nuclear weapons .

4) Desk jockeys apparently having advanced degrees in political science and giving lectures about high energy physics to Indian nuclear physicists which is hilarious in itself .

5) High priests of CTBT who are privately embarrassed about not being able to calculate accurately Mb ( Body waves) , Ms ( Surface waves ) and Lg at Nillore station in Pakistan but publicly repeat like brain damaged lobotomized primates about the accuracy of their measurement but will conveniently ignore that other than Mb,Ms and Lg they also need velocity , close in acceleration , properties of local geology and many other variables to calculate the yield accurately.

and

6) Kids from other defense forums who regurgitate facts created from thin air by aforementioned and whose knowledge about nuclear physics is equal to primates who just found out their use of opposable thumbs .

No country has refuted India's claim officially yet , the onus is on you to prove otherwise. Please don't include think tank reports only official govt policy .

 

[no smoking]

No country has refuted India's claim officially yet , the onus is on you to prove otherwise. Please don't include think tank reports only official govt policy .

On the contrary, no country has support India's claim as none of P5 is changing their deployment of strategic forces for this offensive weapon, especially China. We can see PLA is increasing the number of their satellites and early warning radars in the east, but in the South west, almost nothing. That tells us how they evaluate India's claim.

 

[no smoking]

P5 don't consider us even a nuclear power.

No, P5 does consider India a nuclear power--an illegitimate nuclear power.

Even if 1998s thermonuclear test was a failure, India has developed many technologies in civilian sector to demonstrate its capability now. We can make FBRs, Ion thrusters and small reactors for medical, advanced particle accelerator, our own version of CERN and very large hard water plants but some people still think that we can't miniaturize them for warhead or can't make a thermonuclear reactor. How funny.

The real funny thing is all your listed doesn't get India an inch closer to a decent Hydrogen Bomb.

Like I mentioned above, Pakistan has not demonstrated any of new techs. They have been building up quantity without keeping in mind that India can make 5 times higher nukes if stops electric supply at war time or can destroy their nukes in mid air.

Oh, maybe you can build 5 times more nuke but Pakistan doesn't care. You know why? because they already have enough nukes to bring unacceptable damage to you NOW and the nuke war will be over before your factory starting to make extra nukes.

Yes, India is years behind P5 in tech:
Reason: P5 have no balls to be challenged by any fastly emerging third world country. So, these cowards so called Great Powers put sanctions on us..
We are doing all major military achievements which ensures our status for entry in UNSC.

Oh, maybe! But they have balls to deny your permanent seat with veto in UNSEC.

We are 6th nation to build nuclear sub.

5th nation to build an ICBM(if you doubt that Agni 5 can reach 8500km, kindly compare its specifications with other 8000km ICBMSs).

5th nation to build a large carrier.

4th nation to have anti missile shield.

We are a regional power.

If things go in schedule, we will be world's fourth nation after US,Russia and China to have
more than 50 subs.
Having hypersonic vehicles.
Having global (15-16K km range) ICBMs.
3rd nation to build nuclear carrier and 2nd supercarrier.
4th nation to build nuclear triad(which is almost done till we induct them in February 2016).
It doesn't make sense to keep India our of UNSC and calling countries like France and Britain"great powers".
If not now, P5 will have to expand to P6 for India in future(probably decade). Till then, our Human Development indicators will also closer to today's China and Brazil and nobody here may be targeting our lifestyles.

Keep dreaming, until you prove yourself outside India, the door of UNSEC will not open.