All successful empires are magnets of intellectuals. The Anglo-American empire has been same. It will still collapse. The intellectuals are just part of the machinery. Everybody suffers when an empire collapses.As long as US continues to be THE MAGNET for best of human intellect, there is no competing with US. And, I see no signs of US becoming any lesser attractive than it has been.
There is something else I forgot to add in my post.@mattster, you present your case well. But I am afraid the data is not on your side.
I agree that USA is a "softer" empire compared to some previous ones but it is not dramatically different.
Awesome narration. :thumb:Peter...I am an obejective observer..I say what I see..I am not tied to any particular group of nations...I do still think that you are almost married to west and is heavily positively prejudiced in favor of West. US is not all good OR all bed. You can be shot dead in 10 seconds by a white cop if you are walking down the street and happen to be black skinned. In US, if you or loved one gets sick with a serious illness, your house can go on foreclosure and you can become bankrupt very fast. Lawyers are rampant here like hungry vultures who make sure they eat up last thread of flesh you have.
Your American wife will not shed one tear if you can not get a job or unable to work...she will be gone in an eye blink. If you are alone and OLD, you will be at the mercy of some crude, rude nursing aides who sometimes, hit you with knuckles, curse and yell at you, make fun of you and even push you so you fall down and sent to hospital so they can get some rest themselves.. You spend half of your life's income on your childs education but when he gets his degree, he applies to thousand places and can't get a job, starts doing drugs in your home and makes your life miserable ..it happens here all the time. US is not a paradise of your dreams. But, I understand, sitting in Kolkata ...it might seem like a paradise to you. Bright shining light, tall skyscrapers, naked women, people lying on beach having fun ...almost like paradise..right? Sorry, thats' just the adverstisement. Grasss looks really green from dirty, filthy communist city of Kolkata where mountains of garbage stink beca
use your communist union guys are busy shiouting "Aamar dabhi dete hi hobe..Inqulab zindabad."
Whatever you stated above has no correlation whatsoever with the conclusion you have drawn here. US was always like that, consumerist to the extreme, with a individualistic & utility-based mindset. That has been one of their many strengths. And, unlike what happened in UK, Japan & some recession-prone countries, family-system is far from collapsed in US. Once economically secure, most people in US still look fwd. to getting married & dream of having babies. It still reeks of optimism there (except some isolated pockets like Detroit/Louisiana), unlike most of the developed world.I said that US is undoubtedly in decline ...absolutely ...I only differ about the time line...I think US will become like what UK is today...in about 20 to 30 years. Jobs will be scares esp for minorities and new immigrants. Opportunities will gradually decline and income for most people will slowly decrease over next two -three decades. Not disintegration, not falling apart...JUST SLOW MOTION DECLINE.
India should definitely overhaul its education system which benefits a few, and inhibits innovation, free-thinking mindset. I also agree that gap between US & rest of the world is not going to close anytime soon. However, I would beseech you not conflate US with "the West". The West had its time but now, it is past sell-by date. It won't hold for long, purely because of social & economic reasons. EU would never ever come out of recession & there are limits to what Germany & France can do. UK is already on the run.Remember the coming revolutionary in robotics, that together with energy efficiency and renewable energy sources in the future means that gap between west and rest of the world will likely not close anytime soon. That is why I am trying to tell that India should invest in school system reform. Low skill level jobs in the future will be done by robots.
I said earlier - US has many positives. You have counted the positives. I have lived in USA and I like Americans.There is something else I forgot to add in my post.
In the US growth is driven from bottom up. Let me give you an example:
The billionaires here dont just hand over their fortunes to their punk kids. A lot of them have commited to give away most of their fortunes before they die. Go to any major big-time university and you see the names of people on the business/engineering school buildings.
Unlike India and China - nobody here is waiting for the next President to solve their problems. They are solving things themselves at the grass-roots levels.
Government here in the US really doesnt do much anymore in the US. Even the US postal service is being privatized. The only thing that government does is control the military and pay out social-security, run regulatory bodies like the SEC, EPA, Fed, and deal with foreign affairs. If the Republicans have their way - government will do even less.
Ramapala was the last strong Pala ruler. After his death, a rebellion broke out in Assam during his son Kumarapala's reign. The rebellion was crushed by Vaidyadeva, but after Kumarapala's death, Vaidyadeva practically created a separate kingdom.[12] According to Ramacharitam, Kumarapala's son Gopala III was murdered by his uncle Mandapala. During Madanapala's rule, the Varmans in east Bengal declared independence, and the Eastern Gangas renewed the conflict in Orissa. Madanapala captured Munger from the Gahadavalas, but was defeated by Vijayasena, who gained control of southern and eastern Bengal. A ruler named Govindapala ruled over the Gaya district around 1162 CE, but there is no concrete evidence about his relationship to the imperial Palas. The Pala dynasty was replaced by the Sena dynasty
After the death of Devapala, the Pala kingdom was on its way to decline. Till the rule of Devapala, Bengal ranked high among the important powers in the history of ancient India. He was succeeded by Vigrahapala I, whose short reign was devoid of any important event. After him, his son Narayanapala ascended the throne in 854 A.D. He showed little interest in military conquests because he was a peace loving and religious person.
During the rule of Narayanapala, the Pala kingdom fell prey to the invading armies of the Rashtrakutas in 860 A.D. He was thoroughly defeated. The Pala Empire also could not escape the invasion of the Pratiharas who dealt a severe blow to the body-politic of the kingdom. Bhoja I of the Pratihara kingdom and his son Mahendrapala succeeded in seizing Magadha from Narayanapala. The Paharpur Pillar Inscription attests to the conquests by the Pratihara rulers. Taking advantage of the weakening condition of the Pala kingdom, the rulers of Kamarupa and the Sailodbhaba dynasty of Orissa threw of their allegiance to the Palas and declared their independence.
However at the end of his rule Narayanapala was able to recover North Bengal and South Bihar from the Pratiharas. After a long rule of 53 years, Narayanapala was succeeded by Rajyapala who ruled for a short period. He was succeeded by his son Gopala II who in turn was succeeded by Vigrahapala.
The rule of these Pala rulers was characterized by increase in the weakening of the Pala Empire. Added to this, the kingdom was ravaged by the armies of the Chandellas, Kalachuris and Kambojas at regular intervals.
Pala dynasty regained some of its lost glory during the rule of Mahipala I. who ruled from 995AD to 1043AD. He is rightly called the second founder of the Pala Dynasty. After the death of Ramapala, the last important Pala king, the Pala dynasty was nearing its end. After the death of Ramapala in 1130 Kumarapala became the next Pala ruler. He was succeed by Gopala III and Madanapala. Gradually the Pala kingdom went into oblivion.
I think you hit the nail on the spot in the last section of your post.India should definitely overhaul its education system which benefits a few, and inhibits innovation, free-thinking mindset. I also agree that gap between US & rest of the world is not going to close anytime soon. However, I would beseech you not conflate US with "the West". The West had its time but now, it is past sell-by date. It won't hold for long, purely because of social & economic reasons. EU would never ever come out of recession & there are limits to what Germany & France can do. UK is already on the run.
US is way more competitive & has fared much better than the so-called West (EU). In short, your so-called West simply does not hold a candle to what US stands for & is capable of. US alone is what remains of the West & US has long way to go.
Regarding your robotics thing: India had skipped the Industrial & automobile revolution, thanks to the erstwhile polity. We thought we could leapfrog by jumping on the IT bandwagon & bridge the technology gap. It has barely worked for us. For a nation of our size, we simply cannot do without manufacturing (& we DO NOT have the tech. base to leapfrog to high-end manufacturing) & we need vocational trainings. While education-reforms are essential & urgent, anything in isolation does not works & a multi-pronged approach is being worked out by the govt.
Rest assured that when it comes to energy-efficient technologies, India would always figure among top 5 nations. Just check the automobile scene in India & where things are heading. We already compete with the best, in terms of energy-efficiency.
As things stand, in terms of "installed wind power capacity", India ranks 5th, as of now but with way higher avg. growth rate (for last 5 years) than 3rd & 4th ranked Germany & Spain, which simply alludes to the fact that India would rank 3rd within a few years,. China & US would continue to lead India for few decades.
Source: ABOUT - GWEC & Wind power by country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Anyway, despite our pathetic education system, the startup-scene in Bangalore is comparable to most exciting hotspots in the world (save, the original Silicon Valley). Our entrepreneur zeal has already been unleashed & there is no looking back now.
India is bogged down by its large population which spreads the resources around. The productive have to feed the non-productive. My estimate says that 50% of India's population has only marginal impact on the economy.I think you hit the nail on the spot in the last section of your post.
The key to India's emergence is to create a transparent enough system where entrepreneurs can do their own thing regardless of the politics of the day or the party in power. Indians dont need a savior PM or the Government to save them. They just need a clean, efficient, government and clean PM who will just get out of the way and let the restless energy of the educated young people lead the way.
Unfortunately that's easier said than done......but I remain cautiously optimistic - mainly in Narendra Modi, India might just have the most dynamic PM in decades.
CHINALater, during the Roman Empire, there was a division in the authority of minting coins of particular metals. While numerous local authorities were allowed to mint bronze coins, no local authority was authorized to strike silver coins. On the authority to mint coins Dio Cassius writes, "None of the cities should be allowed to have its own separate coinage or a system of weights and measures; they should all be required to use ours." Only Rome itself struck precious metal coinage, and the mint was centralized in the city of Rome during the Republic and during the early centuries of the Empire. Some Eastern provinces struck coins in silver, but these coins were local denominations that were intended to circulate and to fill only a local need. The issue of bronze coins can be interpreted to be of little value, and of little importance to the central government of Rome, since expenditures of the state were large and could be more easily paid with coins of high value. It is known that during the first century AD an as could only buy a pound of bread or a litre of cheap wine (or according to Pompeiian graffiti, the services of a cheap prostitute). The importance and the need for smaller denominations for the population of Rome was probably high. Evidence of this can be seen in the numerous imitations of imperial Claudian bronzes that, although probably not authorized by Rome, appear to have been tolerated and were struck in large numbers. Since the government required coins mainly as a means to pay its army and officials, it had little impetus or desire to fulfill the need for bronze coins.
The banliang was the first unified currency of the Chinese empire, introduced by the first emperor Qin Shi Huang around 210 BC. It was round with a square hole in the middle. Before that date, a variety of coins were used in China, usually in the form of blades (knife money) or other implements, though round coins with square holes were used by the state of Zhou before it was extinguished by Qin in 249 BCE.
The banliang corresponds to a "half tael" (åŠå…©), or twelve zhu (銖, about 0.67 grams). It typically weighs between ten and six grams, roughly corresponding to the Greek stater.
The standardization of currency with this round coinage was part of a broader plan to unify weights, measures or axle width during the Qin empire.
Thank you, both of you, for giving your thoughts on this subject.
Anyway, here is my take home message:
A weaker currency encourages exports, but discourages imports. Now, coming to what @sob has stated, it is true that if the RMB is allowed to float free, Chinese exports to the US will dwindle. One things no note here is, that with the decline in the value of the US Dollar, even if there was no deflation of the RMB, Chinese exports will continue to get less competitive. This is the very reason why India continues to inflate the INR.
Regarding transparency, yes, there is lack of transparency with PRC. With the US, it is not much different. There is lack of trust with the US Dollar, ever since the US reneged on the Bretton Woods agreement. Economic crisis in the US have a ripple effect all over the world only because international trade is bound to the US Dollar, for most part. This allows the US to exports it inflation.
On the comment by @no smoking, about currency appreciation with a high trade surplus, I agree, and I think his remedies are correct.
How the US exports inflation, can be better understood this way, but before understanding the chart, one should understand the terms:
- TC - Trading Currency money supply, a key factor in boosting GDP.
- TCC - Trading Currency Collateral, such as Gold used to back up that currency.
- QE - Quantitative Easing (essentially, printing money out of thin air).
- Wealth per TC - The amount of the collateral, in this case, gold, one unit of TC can purchase.
- TC Country - Country that controls the TC.
- ~TC Countries - Other countries, that own TC as forex reserves.
- DfBW - Departure from an agreement, such as Bretton-Woods agreement, or any agreement that ties the value of one TC to the collateral.
- The other terms are self explanatory.
YEAR EVENT QE TC TCC Wealth per TC ~TC Countries TC Country ~TC Country Wealth TC Country Wealth Wealth Transfer y+0 0 10000 100 0.01 6000 4000 60 40 0 y+1 0 10000 100 0.01 6000 4000 60 40 0 y+2 0 10000 100 0.01 6000 4000 60 40 0 y+3 0 10000 100 0.01 6000 4000 60 40 0 y+4 0 10000 100 0.01 6000 4000 60 40 0 y+5 0 10000 100 0.01 6000 4000 60 40 0 y+6 DfBW 10 10010 100 0.00999000999000999 6000 4010 59.9400599400599 40.0599400599401 0.059940059940061 y+7 DfBW 10 10020 100 0.00998003992015968 6000 4020 59.8802395209581 40.1197604790419 0.0598204191018539 y+8 DfBW 10 10030 100 0.00997008973080758 6000 4030 59.8205383848455 40.1794616151545 0.0597011361126221 y+9 DfBW 10 10040 100 0.0099601593625498 6000 4040 59.7609561752988 40.2390438247012 0.0595822095466545 y+10 DfBW 10 10050 100 0.00995024875621891 6000 4050 59.7014925373134 40.2985074626866 0.0594636379853739
Of course, many other variables that are in play, have been kept at a constant, to understand how inflation is exported by the US.
Look at how the value of the currency and the wealth transfer is diminishing exponentially. To keep the wealth transfer fixed, or to have a positive rate of change of wealth transfer, the amount of money printed out of thin air must increase exponentially every time there is QE.
@Sakal Gharelu Ustad, please correct me if I am wrong anywhere.
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