The best case scenario is if the production line actually re-opens. But it won't reopen for just 10-16 aircraft, the USAF itself will have to table a requirement for additional C-17s, as should some NATO partners. PKSG had said a while ago that the line will re-open, as the US itself will need more C-17s in the future.
This is a very remote possibility IMO and if it is even on the table it won't be an option for another 15-20 years at least ie much longer than the IAF can afford to wait. The USAF received their full order (plus about 20-30 extra units that they were forced to accept for poltical reasons) of >200 C-17s with the last being delivered only a few years ago. So about 50% of the fleet is relatively new <10 years old and with a life span of 30-40 years there is a LOT of life left in the USAF's fleet meaning they aren't going to look for replacements anytime soon. Furthermore, with the C-17 taken care of the USAF is firmly focused on other big ticket procurements- next gen bomber, UCAVs, F-35, AARs etc. The C-17 just isn't on their radar (excuse the pun) anymore and if it was it would be well down their priority list as they are seeing their budgets constrained by these out of control projects (the F-35 especially).
One of the problems I see is that we are always lacking when it comes to making our ultimate requirements (total projected numbers) clear to the vendor beforehand. If we had made a clear-cut statement to Boeing at the time of the initial purchase (or during the deliveries) that we have a total projected requirement of 26-30 Globemasters, it may have just been possible that they keep the line on hold - while we work up the payment issues & methods. Not saying that this approach would have been fool-proof, but atleast we would put in a word.
This is true and I don't know if the IAF/MoD ever made it clear to Boeing, I'm sure Boeing would have been receptive to a "creative" financing plan (incremental payments or these 16-20 built and mothballed" for a time when the IAF could commit the finances- Boeing wouldn't have turned down >$10BN in revenue somewhere down the line. But alas, at the time (2012/13) India had a very rigid DM and uninterested GoI who had no capacity/interest to "think out of the box" and serve their nation's interests.
At the very least Boeing could have made more than the 10 so-called "white tails" that were quickly snatched up by others.
Argh, this whole situation really is an opportunity missed and it really infuriates me how unresponsive the MoD/GoI of the time was to the emerging situation- it was clear from years and years ago that the Long Beach plant was set to clsoe down and I'm sure Boeing were communicating this on a regular basis but it clearly fell on deaf ears.
But we can neither count on the line re-opening, nor just sit by watching. In the meantime, it does seem a good idea to request the purchase of some Globemasters that the US keeps in reserve/stand-by. They really wouldn't have clocked many hours and even if they do it really doesn't matter, these transports are long-serving platforms.
This to me seems like the only viable solution as of now and even getting them second hand is a non-issue as the OEMs could easily "zero hour" the airframes, avionics and engines and make the a/cs effectively brand new for the IAF.
I hope the MoD/DM is thinking along these lines, for all the talk about "strategic partnership" with the US it has ammounted to precisely zilch. THIS is the kind of innovative thinking that would help to signal such and also would confirm that Parrikar isn't just a loudmouth who promises the world and delviers nothing. There is all this talk of EMALS, F-18 production lines etc etc but why not this (relatively) simple deal?
But we also have to look at alternatives. As you said, the Il-476 (also called Il-76MD-90A) is little more than a refurbished Gajraj with new engines. But the saving grace would be that eventhough it doesn't offer an airlift capability near that of C-17, we may actually be able to buy twice as many of these with the same money we would otherwise keep aside for C-17s. We already operate the type so getting used to it won't take as much time...as long as we can keep the spares supply lines clear and localize the maintenance as much as possible.
See, this is quite typical forum/fan boy thinking- you can get 3/4/5/6Y for the same price of X but it entirely fails to take account of the inherent pros/cons of the cheap/"expensive" products. Yes, if the IL-476 was the absolute equivalent of the C-17 (or even close) then it would be no-brainer but the IL-476 is nowehre close to the C-17 in outright performance, operating costs or promised availability. Like I have said above, Boeing guarentees a minimum of 85% availability rate for the entire IAF C-17 fleet, the Russians would NEVER be able to match this. I don't know what the IL-476 could deliver but I had heard that the IAF's IL-76 fleet hovered around 35-45% availability which is truly abysmal. Furthermore, the after sales support of the Russians has been shoddy at best, whilst the IAF is now "plugged in" to the C-17 global support program that ensures spares within 2 days anywhere in the world.
You get what you pay for, as the saying goes; you pay peanuts, you get monkeys. Just because you can get 3 MiG-21s for the price of 1 LCA does it mean the LCA is over-priced or the MiG-21 represents a good deal today?
I don't think the IAF has any interest in the IL-476, if they did they wouldn't have sunk funds into upgrading their current IL-76 fleet to keep them going another 10-15 years. I don't think we've heard a single peep from the IAF about being interested in the IL-476 and I think this is very telling and I think it confirms what many have said for a while; Russian equipment is of inferior quality, harder to maintain/service and FAR more expensive to operate over their life span. This Russian game has been played out now- dirt cheap unit costs with sky rocketed life cycle costs, I don't think any Indian Mil officer is inclined to repeat the mistakes of their predecessors.
Indian Mil experience of Russian equipment has continuously demonstrated this and even with their very latest tech (MKI) they are STILL facing serious issues (AL-31 flame outs). There is a reason the IAF has gone for Western equipment where possible in recent times (C-130J, C-17, P-8, CH-47F, AH-64E, A330 MRTT, Rafale etc). There is a reason that Airbus and Boeing dominate the global aerospace industry and Sukhoi is a nobody.
For some reason, the A400M in IAF looks so out of place - as if it wasn't meant to be.
The A400M is kind of a mix between the C-130 and C-17 and I know the IAF have looked at it but the fact that it is a turboprop a/c counts against it as it wouldn't be as "rapid" as the C-17 or even IL-76. It also has a considerably smaller payload capacity than the C-17 but it does have a more spacious cargo bay than the IL-76 meaning it can transport a wider variety of cargo.
It really is a mess and one that could easily have been avoided but this is India afterall, drama and messes go hand in hand with Indian culture unfortunatly.