2025: Who will overtake US Economy First?

[badguy2000]

badguy I already remember you from previous over nationalistic comments that are never based on the facts ! I HATE to talk with you !

what is your difinition of "over nationalism" ? is it is your hobby to tag others?

case it that you are not used to a powerful china. but I am sure that you will have to get used to it,because you can not move to Mars or Moon

1)EU GDP is FAR above Chinese and EU is not in debt like USA
Also EU industry is not based on copies of Western technology like Chinese but TRUE high technology base which China still does not have.
All EU have to do is to unite and it is FINISHED while China has still long way to go......

Japanese said so too ten years ago, when CHina's nominal GDP was only 1/4-1/3 of Japan's.

now,What happens?


guy, in five years, Europeans will have to import high-speed railway from CHina.
in 10 years ,air bus will be "bailed out" by CHinese.

Let's wait and see.

2)Since when you are the expert to the people who live in EU like me?
"Lisbon Treaty" is first step to unification and as information for uninformed people like you - EU has already first PRESIDENT !

If EU unites China will not be "Super Power", just country in development still full of poverty and problems comparing to EU!

Please talk with somebody else !
I hate to talk to people like you who never bring arguments just exalted patriotism which does NOT interest me!!

PLEASE stay away from me!:ucant cme:

European lack of a Emperor Qinshihuang.

Charlemagne ,Napoleon and Hilter tried but failed. in forseeable future, no new Charlemagne will appear.

 

[qilaotou]

guy, in five years, Europeans will have to import high-speed railway from CHina.

It started with Russia in 2009. The western part of continental Europe might not need any high speed train in the near future, imo.

 

[badguy2000]

It started with Russia in 2009. The western part of continental Europe might not need any high speed train in the near future, imo.

in fact, the upgrade of poland railways system is being done by CHinese company now.
Chinese companies defeated French and German companies in Poland market.

 

[Rage]

You can do the math. It depends how fast you think the GDP will continue to grow. US is at 13.8 trillion, China at about 7. If china continues to grow at your 12% and the US at 2%, China would pass the US in 2015.
But those are pretty big assumptions. I suspect China will find double digit growth difficult to maintain. So I'd expect that to be delayed a few years, let's see, I change the china growth assumption to 7% it means 2022 before China passes the US. And that might still be difficult to manage.

Thomas,

China's GDP as of 2009 is 31.405 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion) (post revision). 7 trillion? Don't kid yourself, our forum readers and the world with inflationary fibbery and tomfoolery.

U.S. GDP as of 2009 was $14.204 trillion (post contraction over the last 4 quarters- the worst months of the slump). Again, don't kid yourself with detractive 'estimates' and weird year comparisons.

China's GDP will continue to clock impressive growth rates, but the law of diminishing marginal returns must eventually catch up, and growth will peter out to the high 6 or 7's.

2022? I think not.

 

[nimo_cn]

Before 2025, no coutry is going to surpass US economically.

There is an old Chinese saying "瘦死的骆驼比马大", which means even a died thin camel looks larger than a horse. In this scenario, the camel(US) is still having an edge in many main fields regarding economy, in other words the camel is still in good shape, hence it is too soon for us to deem US is falling down and will be overtaken by other countries in a near future.

Even if the current global economy recession is a sign of US being in a irreversible decline, which in fact i highly doubt, it will take much longer time than 10 years for the Imperial US to rot.

 

[no smoking]

please, people, can we close this thread?

We are acting like 12 years boy, arguing: my d*** WILL grow bigger than yours.

 

[Armand2REP]

Before 2025, no coutry is going to surpass US economically.

With ratification of Lisbon, our soveriengty is being stripped from us into an EU superstate that will be complete long before 2025. Leading nations are already calling for a national army.

 

[jakojako777]

PLEASE read the prediction for 2010 which I find MIND BLOWING (from Russian Pravda)!Announces BIG decline of USA& and conflicts within USA.Also BIG decline of China!!

It is my thread I know it isn't correct to make self publicity but nobody is reading it and I find article SHOCKING !
Don't leave the comment I don't need rating, just READ IT PLEASE I think it is important!
Thank you!:thank_you2:
Thread is here;
"2009 in Review"
http://www.defenceforum.in/forum/wor...09-review.html

 

[Armand2REP]

in fact, the upgrade of poland railways system is being done by CHinese company now.
Chinese companies defeated French and German companies in Poland market.

Kind of hard to win when a tender hasn't even been sent out.

 

[p2prada]

Heck I don't know about India or China. But, I know one thing. I am going to be the richest guy on the planet by 2025.

 

[badguy2000]

Thomas,

China's GDP as of 2009 is 31.405 trillion yuan ($4.6 trillion) (post revision). 7 trillion? Don't kid yourself, our forum readers and the world with inflationary fibbery and tomfoolery.

U.S. GDP as of 2009 was $14.204 trillion (post contraction over the last 4 quarters- the worst months of the slump). Again, don't kid yourself with detractive 'estimates' and weird year comparisons.

China's GDP will continue to clock impressive growth rates, but the law of diminishing marginal returns must eventually catch up, and growth will peter out to the high 6 or 7's.

2022? I think not.

31.405 is CHinese GDP in 2008. the data of 2009 has not been published yet.But it should be about 5 trillion or so.

the "7 trillion " so called should be "PPP",instead of nominal GDP.

 

[Armand2REP]

31.405 is CHinese GDP in 2008. the data of 2009 has not been published yet.But it should be about 5 trillion or so.

the "7 trillion " so called should be "PPP",instead of nominal GDP.

China 2009 GDP will be bogus since they added the stimulus to their growth numbers.

 

[badguy2000]

China 2009 GDP will be bogus since they added the stimulus to their growth numbers.

yes, USA's surely not bongus although it also has stimulus.

does France has stimulus? well,Iforget that France government has no enough money for stimulus at all....:twizt:

guy. everything in China is just hallucinations....high speed railways are hallucinations...skyscrapers are hallucinations.....expressways are tooo.....so is "made in China" all over the world....

the only real is your feeling....keep on ,guy...:twizt:

 

[Armand2REP]

yes, USA's surely not bongus although it also has stimulus.

does France has stimulus? well,Iforget that France government has no enough money for stimulus at all....:twizt:

When Western national banques do their capital accounts, they subtract stimulus, China doesn't giving us their fuzzy math.

 

[Rage]

31.405 is CHinese GDP in 2008. the data of 2009 has not been published yet.But it should be about 5 trillion or so.

the "7 trillion " so called should be "PPP",instead of nominal GDP.

No country's GDP data for 2009 have been fully publicized yet. All 'figures' are based on 'advance reports', and the discrepancies between the 'advance', interim and final reports are substantial- usually revised upward when growth occurs, as happened in the last quarter of the last fiscal.

The values for US GDP estimates of $14.4 trillion and Chinese GDP estimates of $4.6 trillion pertained to GDP at the end of 2008, a.k.a at the beginning of 2009.

the "7 trillion " so called should be "PPP",instead of nominal GDP.

Yes, but he is not operating on PPP GDP.

In that case, India's "PPP GDP" rises to $3.3 trillion as well.

You're not "enlightening" anyone.

 

[singa]

you must be China propaganda machine!

 

[Dark_Prince]

@ singa

I think the propaganda machine has been banned way back!

 

[p2prada]

@ singa

I think the propaganda machine has been banned way back!

It's only for a week.

 

[indiansamurai]

I think china's numbers are pretty inflated because they use different methods for calculating their numbers like say...they began to disburse funds directed at a sharp increase in public works spending during recession. It is important to understand that the disbursal of funds is recorded as GDP growth no other country counts it so the govt can control the pace of GDP growth by just moving funds. Shipments to retailers are counted as retail sales on the apparent assumption that ultimately all goods shipped will be sold at some point in the future again wrong counting.There are little direct data of the amount of sales.

 

[Dark_Prince]

It's only for a week.

NP let him come back, He is most welcome to join in!