India's Nuclear Doctrine

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Sabir, Aug 25, 2009.

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Should India have tested a Megaton warhead during Pokran?

  1. Yes, absolutely

    73.4%
  2. No, it was not required

    18.4%
  3. Maybe , not sure

    8.2%
  1. Chinmoy

    Chinmoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Actually it does. Let me point you towards them in the very document.

    Now look at the underlined part. It clearly states that this formulation has been prepared and suggested to overcome the constraints which are there in NFU policy.

    Moreover it has been discussed in some strategic talk shows too in LSTV.
     
  2. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Deterrence is not a strategy pursuing victory in a potential nuclear war but avoiding nuclear war at any cost: the number of nuclear weapon possessed by deterrence countries is simply not enough to bring any meaningful victory.

    In the case of China nuclear striking India, China has two types of targets: India nuclear weapon nor India city. If Chinese choose to wipe out India nuclear weapon, then 250 Chinese warheads is nowhere close to destroy all of India nuclear weapon (2 to 1). The best result for Chinese is India will still got 20 to 30 warheads left, these warheads can destroy at least 5 Chinese cities with total minimum casualty of 2 million people. So, eventually, Chinese lose all their nuclear weapons, 5 cities and 2 million people, while India lose all her nuclear weapons and couple of thousands of military men. So, CHINESE LOSE.


    What if Chinese choose Indian cities as target? Then you will find there is no difference between shoot nuclear missile before or after Chinese warhead explosion because there is no damage to India nuclear force at all. Again, 250 warheads is nowhere close to force India to surrender. If India nuclear weapons can kill 30 millions Chinese before this nuclear strike, now India nuclear weapon still can kill 30 millions of Chinese. And more importantly, after this strike, Chinese is threatened not only by 120 Indian warheads, but also 1000 US and Russian warheads (they will come to disarm Chinese once for all). So, Chinese lose AGAIN.


    So, we can draw the conclusion from the above: for deterrence countries, as long as the nuclear war starts, you lose the war already. Who initiates it, who lose more.
     
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  3. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Tactical nukes are the waste in this scenario. Himalaya will cause more trouble to Chinese armor column than any tactical nuclear weapon. Indian bombers and artillery can bring more damage to Chinese armors at cheaper costs.
     
  4. kalakaar

    kalakaar Regular Member

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    As per the document, Fall of deterrence happens
    When the adversary deploys the N tip then India's deterrence is fallen. And India deploys the N tip too. When adversary presses the button then Indian deterrence is fallen and wouldn't wait till it comes overhead, and India would press the button too. It's simple. I LSTV also they mentioned that India wouldn't wait until it's overhead.

    My point is, as India is restricted to NFU, it is adversary who has to understand that they are the first ones who need to fall back and deescalate. Because you can't differentiate between a Ntip and Non Ntip missile. India may press the button before taking the hit to equate the deterrence.
     
  5. kalakaar

    kalakaar Regular Member

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    You are correct, but my point is different. My point is, two countries have deployed the weapons and since most of the new missiles having range 500km to 1000km can be N tipped. India may press the button as a benefit of doubt on false alert. And same with the Chinese.

    So false alert may trigger a nuclear war. This was the most horrific scenario during cold war between US and Soviets.
     
  6. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No.
    1. As I have proved, deterrence countries will be better off pressing the button after the incoming warhead exploding, there is no benefit of doubt here;
    2. The number of nuclear weapons they possess decides that they have no luxury to desclate the situation once they shoot out;
    3. Unlike US/Russia, once the nuclear war starts, deterrence countries are the losing side already.

    No, India and China were not US and Soviet. Both countries never built up their nuclear forces the way US/Soviet did:
    1. The nuclear weapons are always controlled by civilian governments of India and China, while US/Soviet army groups commanders partially controlled these tactic nuclear weapons. In other words, these commanders can initiate the tactic nuclear attack in certain situation while Indian and Chinese commanders can't.
    2. India and China has no missile mate with nuclear warhead in peace time.
    3. There are too many false alert to both US/Soviet early warning system, so even these 2 countries have given up this kind of shooting first, asking question later policy.
     
  7. Chinmoy

    Chinmoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    It does happen, but the document has only suggested what should be the steps if it happens. It doesn't imply that it has happen or the suggestions has been implemented. As of now, India's NFU policy clearly mentions that we would be absorbing the first strike.

    But it doesn't imply that we have to keep our warhead and launch system in unmated form.
     
  8. kalakaar

    kalakaar Regular Member

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    Bro how much times does it take for a missile to reach its destination, hardly 15 mins and if there is an alert then in those 15 minutes in the terminal stage it will be met with BMD and if that is missed then India will surely press the button. Whether after absorbing or before the total time would be just 15 minutes. Preparation for launch would start in those 15 minutes.

    I agree with you last point.

    @no smoking
     
  9. Chinmoy

    Chinmoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Its not about preparation time or launch time. NFU is all about using. It doesn't mean that India would not be Nuclear ready in case of eventuality. But the thing is when would India press the button.
     
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2018
  10. kalakaar

    kalakaar Regular Member

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    And there is also no hard and fast rule in any book in case of confirmed BM launch India may launch it simultaneously. As rule one says, when deterrent falls, India's deterrent would fall immediately when adversary launches a BM. Can you disagree with that? It is upto to the adversary that don't even bring their BM close to launch sequence.
     
  11. indus

    indus Living in Post Truth Senior Member

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    What can be the number of nukes required to bring India China equation to MAD....
     
  12. Flame Thrower

    Flame Thrower Senior Member Senior Member

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    Because it is a waste of money.

    Please do go through the America's pain for building(and maintaining) thousands of Nukes.

    100 nukes are more than enough (as of today) to make credible minimum deterrence.

    When China gets a capable BMD, then we can think of increasing numbers...

    Thus I rest my case.
     
  13. Chinmoy

    Chinmoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    If you are talking about Nuke BM, for India, there is hard and fast rule as of now. The whole hullaboo about revisiting NFU is only because of this hard and fast rule.



    Have a look at this. Here is a small snippet of India's NFU.
     
  14. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well, in order to reach threshold of MAD, each country need at least over 1000 nukes.
    However, when you get there, you will find yourselves getting into a new league - US & Russia league. They will add you into their major targets list since you now have minimum scale to their destruction as well. So, instead of improving your security environment, it is getting worse. In this case, you have to continue to expand your nuclear weapon stock to achieve equation to US/Russia. Finally, you get into an arm race that you can't win since you don't have the necessary uranium resource to build up such a scale of nuclear force.
     
  15. Arihant

    Arihant Regular Member

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    https://www.firstpost.com/india/rep...seless-smack-of-false-propaganda-2577150.html


    in response to a question in Parliament, the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) informed the house on December 23, 2015 that “as of November, 2015, AMD has established 2,29,936 tonnes in-situ U3O8 (1,94,985 tonnes of uranium) reserves.”


    No need to have thousands of nuclear weapons because after using 100 nukes life on the earth will be like hell and most probably half or more population will die within few months because of this. And in sane world No one is going to use nuclear weapon because a single weapon fired on some country will lead to immediate response from the world to stop retaliation if not everyone will be killed on the earth because of world war. No one will be alive. No winner, only looser, and they too not alive.
     
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  16. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    This figure means nothing as it is built based on importation source which has been always monitored by IAEA.


    Well, Soviet planned to use 200 nuclear warheads to disarm China in 1969, they were not stopped by the prospect of nuclear winter but the interference of another nuclear superpower.

    During cold, who do you think can stop US or Soviet to shoot out their nuclear missile? Certainly not the world, but the threat of ten thousands of nuclear weapons from another superpower.
     
  17. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    DRDO develops quick response mobile facility for nuclear incidents
    With threat perception of terrorists using weapons of mass destruction increasing, DRDO has developed a mobile facility to help provide immediate
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG] India Science Wire
    [​IMG]
     
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