India headed for economic doom, prominent US thinktank

no smoking

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On one side you have unions, who would go to the extent of preventing workers who are willing to work, and on the other hand you have the management that is utterly corrupt, and would patronize certain unions for their personal needs. All or most of this can be fixed with proper labour laws.
No that easy. The first time I hear about the idea of labour laws reform was 2002, is there anything significant happend to it? No!
You have to ask yourself a question: why no one can make a change to this inappropriate law so far?

Union is protecting its members who already got the job. Those workers who are willing to work are not its member, so their interest is its concerns.


You cannot say these politicians are too stupid to see the things that you can see.
Any move to change the labour laws will put them on the opposite side of 20-40millions current workers who already have the work.
 

pmaitra

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No that easy. The first time I hear about the idea of labour laws reform was 2002, is there anything significant happend to it? No!
You have to ask yourself a question: why no one can make a change to this inappropriate law so far?

Union is protecting its members who already got the job. Those workers who are willing to work are not its member, so their interest is its concerns.


You cannot say these politicians are too stupid to see the things that you can see.
Any move to change the labour laws will put them on the opposite side of 20-40millions current workers who already have the work.
The union is in the interest of the workers. If a worker does not see his interest, he has the voluntary right to not be part of that union. The union then should not stop him from working. Similarly, company managements should not appoint their own unions, because in such cases, these unions act as cronies of the company. Hope that clarifies everything.
 

hit&run

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Distributing money to poor is a short term effort it will pump up the economics for good. You guys need to learn a bit more on economics. It is a kind of stimulus package.

Americans will predict our economy on right track when their Walmart et al will start having a free hand in our markets.
 

mylegend

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Directly giving the money to the poor will not give them a job, a skill, and not even an opportunity. Another main waste of Indian society is fuel subsidy that should not have existed. India is running both fiscal and trade deficit, subsidizing gas price will encourage gasoline and diesel consumption that will widening both in fiscal and trade deficit. Those subsidy create less job compare to investment in infrastructure that India desperately need while may only increase the fiscal deficit and not put further pressure on trade and rupee.
Distributing money to poor is a short term effort it will pump up the economics for good. You guys need to learn a bit more on economics. It is a kind of stimulus package.

Americans will predict our economy on right track when their Walmart et al will start having a free hand in our markets.
 

hit&run

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Directly giving the money to the poor will not give them a job, a skill, and not even an opportunity. Another main waste of Indian society is fuel subsidy that should not have existed. India is running both fiscal and trade deficit, subsidizing gas price will encourage gasoline and diesel consumption that will widening both in fiscal and trade deficit. Those subsidy create less job compare to investment in infrastructure that India desperately need while may only increase the fiscal deficit and not put further pressure on trade and rupee.
Money is concentrating among few, the governments will manage the deficits as long as books are not cooked and in flow. If you think India is in recession then you are not reading Indian economy right. Our problem is not oil because oil earn us money even if we buy from outside spending dollars or even if we give subsidy on it, the fuel will be burnt so our problem is not oil but gold.

Giving money to poor means government has to squeeze others (judiciously the better) and has to give policies to generate more revenues. Then the money given will come back to markets thus stimulate it further. Like I said its a good strategy for short term.
 

JBH22

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India dooms day was much worse back in 1991.

Great insight of the then finance minister Y.Sinha who was the architect of Indian economy reforms and yet MMS get credit...
 
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t_co

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India needs to get its act together... China has more to fear from a weak, insecure India than a strong, confident India.
 

arnabmit

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Economy, military, culture... China has zero threat from India. Unfounded fear unless China engages in pin-pricking. Even then India would hardly do anything.

India today is probably as internationally docile as Greenland!

India needs to get its act together... China has more to fear from a weak, insecure India than a strong, confident India.
 

t_co

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Economy, military, culture... China has zero threat from India. Unfounded fear unless China engages in pin-pricking. Even then India would hardly do anything.

India today is probably as internationally docile as Greenland!
Actually, India today is much less docile as Greenland. India has border disputes with Myanmar, Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan, to all of which it has never renounced its right to use force to resolve them. But this belligerence isn't an outgrowth of Indian strength; much to the contrary, it's an outgrowth of Indian weakness and electoral instability. The Indian army needs funding, so it appeals to right-wing Indian politicians ranging from Shiv Sainiks to Narendra Modi and the BJP, which in turn feed a sense of insecurity, aggrievement, and 'weakness' to the Indian media and national discourse.

The real victim of this policy is all those millions of chronically poor Indians with legitimate grievances against the woeful inability of the Indian government to provide basic services and the proper conditions for economic growth. The continual noise about Pakistan and Aksai Chin and 1971, 1965, and 1962 drowns out their yearning for a better life, and directs precious hard currency--hard currency that could go toward, say, importing foreign manufacturing plants or consumer technology--into the pockets of DRDO, HAL, and Russian defense contractors.

China doesn't care about all this--it's your country, after all, and if you wish your Dalits to continue to suffer and your farmers to slide further into debt while you spend export earnings on foreign military equipment, so be it. But when these tensions spill over into proud boasting about "China killer" nuclear missiles or insinuations that India may help the US contain China by strangling Chinese oil shipments through the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, then China has every right to react, by, say, stationing attack subs and frigates in Sri Lanka or an aircraft carrier at Gwadar, or by placing anti-ballistic-missile units and cruise missiles in Tibet, aimed at Indian nuclear launchers. China would rather not do that, of course, since China has no fundamental strategic issues with India (unlike, say, the innate geopolitical problem between China and Japan). Ergo, China would prefer a strong, confident India that has its own house in order so it doesn't have the political need for a national security apparatus whose sole purpose appears to be invading one country (Pakistan) while threatening the oil supplies and major cities of another (China).
 

Bangalorean

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Actually, India today is much less docile as Greenland. India has border disputes with Myanmar, Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan, to all of which it has never renounced its right to use force to resolve them. But this belligerence isn't an outgrowth of Indian strength; much to the contrary, it's an outgrowth of Indian weakness and electoral instability. The Indian army needs funding, so it appeals to right-wing Indian politicians ranging from Shiv Sainiks to Narendra Modi and the BJP, which in turn feed a sense of insecurity, aggrievement, and 'weakness' to the Indian media and national discourse.

The real victim of this policy is all those millions of chronically poor Indians with legitimate grievances against the woeful inability of the Indian government to provide basic services and the proper conditions for economic growth. The continual noise about Pakistan and Aksai Chin and 1971, 1965, and 1962 drowns out their yearning for a better life, and directs precious hard currency--hard currency that could go toward, say, importing foreign manufacturing plants or consumer technology--into the pockets of DRDO, HAL, and Russian defense contractors.

China doesn't care about all this--it's your country, after all, and if you wish your Dalits to continue to suffer and your farmers to slide further into debt while you spend export earnings on foreign military equipment, so be it. But when these tensions spill over into proud boasting about "China killer" nuclear missiles or insinuations that India may help the US contain China by strangling Chinese oil shipments through the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, then China has every right to react, by, say, stationing attack subs and frigates in Sri Lanka or an aircraft carrier at Gwadar, or by placing anti-ballistic-missile units and cruise missiles in Tibet, aimed at Indian nuclear launchers. China would rather not do that, of course, since China has no fundamental strategic issues with India (unlike, say, the innate geopolitical problem between China and Japan). Ergo, China would prefer a strong, confident India that has its own house in order so it doesn't have the political need for a national security apparatus whose sole purpose appears to be invading one country (Pakistan) while threatening the oil supplies and major cities of another (China).
You really don't know much about India. You think you do, by reading a few forums and some news articles here and there. Frankly, you don't even know what the discourse in India is.

You are talking out of your Musharraff when you speak of "Army appealing to Shiv Sena, BJP, etc.". I never saw a bigger piece of tripe in my life. You don't even know that Shiv Sena has a marginal presence in the pan-Indian scenario. They are limited to mainly Mumbai. And even there, for the last decade or so, the Congress has been in power. And the BJP has tasted power at the center only for 5-6 years in India's post-independence history. Anyone who says that the Army "appeals to SS/BJP" for funds, is - pardon the language - a dork who has no idea of contemporary India.

And let me tell you - these groups whom you are talking about - SS, hardcore right wingers, etc. - they have a problem with Muslims and Pakistan. In the eyes of most of them, China is just a country we need to be "wary" of. Modi was the guy who went to China to advance business ties. Subramaniam Swamy, one of the most aggressive right-wingers in India who is all for "Hindu renaissance" (who is from the Janata Party FYI, not the Shiv Sena or BJP), is a Sinophile. He was the one responsible for reestablishing good relations with China in the late 1970s. He is an expert at the Chinese language, is a China scholar well known even in CCP circles, and is a proponent of excellent Sino-Indian relations. Swamy has gone on record to say that India should resolve outstanding issues with China on the basis of give-and-take, and should go all out against Pakistan and destroy that nation. This is the view of most right-wing groups in India.

You again show that you completely lack knowledge about the discourse in India, when you speak of 65, 71, 62, etc. For your information, 71 and 65 were Indian military victories. No Indian ruminates over them and discusses them to score points. As far as 62' is concerned, it finds a place in textbooks in politically correct language, but Indians hardly obsess over 62' - most of today's yuppie generation wouldn't even know about 1962 is you go to the shopping malls and pubs and conduct a survey.

And in your post, you've painted China as a dove which is oh-so-innocent in every way. But since you are a Chinese, that bias is expected, so we'll let that pass.

You think you know a lot about India, but you hardly know what you're talking about. If you want to make statements about internal Indian politics, first learn what you're talking about. A good starting point would be to follow the discussions on DFI about Indian political issues. First understand, then shoot your mouth off. Don't make unnecessary noises with no basis in fact.
 
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no smoking

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The union is in the interest of the workers. If a worker does not see his interest, he has the voluntary right to not be part of that union. The union then should not stop him from working. Similarly, company managements should not appoint their own unions, because in such cases, these unions act as cronies of the company. Hope that clarifies everything.
The union is in the interest of the workers who is its members. And the worker does see his interest being protected by union, that is why he join the union. How union protects its members' interest? First, the union make it almost impossible for employer to fire its member without union's permission; Second, the union make it almost impossible for employers to recruit any worker who is not union member, or employers may face strike.
 

roma

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Madam, Indian economy is in a much better shape than the ability of US's think Tank...... better US would worry for their own economy, which is in a seriously bad shape, heavily indebted and just no future, in place of worrying about the Indian economy...... their these poor quality statements only means to state that now US is more willing to get help from the Indian economy, to avoid a set fall their own economy may face by end of this decade, very likely :wave:

as a man who is just interested in economics, had just few subjects in my management studies but no professional degree in economics, but even I may say that Economic State of a country may well be measured on the basis of the below two main criterion only, in today's world :ranger:

1st, PMI Report:
Average Composite PMI of India for the year 2012 to last month was around 55, showing an expansion of around 10% in combined Manufacturing and Services both this way. which is considerably better in today's struggling world market. please check these news as below, with PMI for Manufacturing for the last month too

=> India's manufacturing PMI up at 54.2 in February 2013 | NetIndian

=>

2nd, Investment to GDP
which has now come down to 30%, which India needs to raise. hence more investment is required this way, mainly high investment in Infrastructure to raise GDP numbers. but we do have a news of around $1.0trillion Investment in Infrastructure for the next 5 years, which is not high but not very low too......

https://www.cia.gov/library/publica...=India&countryCode=in®ionCode=sas&rank=19#in

and if average Composite PMI is well above 55 for the last 14 months, showing pretty good expansion of Manufacturing+Service industries this way, with 30%+ Investment to GDP ratio also, then even the low GDP growth number isn't a worry for a person like me, under these very bad external markets.... India only needs to increase Investment in infrastructure, thats it :wave:
once in a blue moon i get a response like this - which is TOTALLY irrelevant to what i had written

tried ignoring it for long enough but now couldnt help having to reply

( fortunately it's seldom )

pin - H !
 

Ray

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What kind of revolution ?
I just hope the Chinese poster was not suggesting the type of revolution Mao ordered under the guise of Cultural Revolution.

It did great for China. It cut down the population which was supplemented by the One Child policy and that helped China to spread the money around towards the economy and armament!

It won't work for India since we are a democracy and will not allow to be frogmarched by goose stepping political mobs embarked on a genocide!
 

Ray

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Actually, India today is much less docile as Greenland. India has border disputes with Myanmar, Bangladesh, China, and Pakistan, to all of which it has never renounced its right to use force to resolve them. But this belligerence isn't an outgrowth of Indian strength; much to the contrary, it's an outgrowth of Indian weakness and electoral instability. The Indian army needs funding, so it appeals to right-wing Indian politicians ranging from Shiv Sainiks to Narendra Modi and the BJP, which in turn feed a sense of insecurity, aggrievement, and 'weakness' to the Indian media and national discourse.

The real victim of this policy is all those millions of chronically poor Indians with legitimate grievances against the woeful inability of the Indian government to provide basic services and the proper conditions for economic growth. The continual noise about Pakistan and Aksai Chin and 1971, 1965, and 1962 drowns out their yearning for a better life, and directs precious hard currency--hard currency that could go toward, say, importing foreign manufacturing plants or consumer technology--into the pockets of DRDO, HAL, and Russian defense contractors.

China doesn't care about all this--it's your country, after all, and if you wish your Dalits to continue to suffer and your farmers to slide further into debt while you spend export earnings on foreign military equipment, so be it. But when these tensions spill over into proud boasting about "China killer" nuclear missiles or insinuations that India may help the US contain China by strangling Chinese oil shipments through the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, then China has every right to react, by, say, stationing attack subs and frigates in Sri Lanka or an aircraft carrier at Gwadar, or by placing anti-ballistic-missile units and cruise missiles in Tibet, aimed at Indian nuclear launchers. China would rather not do that, of course, since China has no fundamental strategic issues with India (unlike, say, the innate geopolitical problem between China and Japan). Ergo, China would prefer a strong, confident India that has its own house in order so it doesn't have the political need for a national security apparatus whose sole purpose appears to be invading one country (Pakistan) while threatening the oil supplies and major cities of another (China).
India has no disputes with anyone.

Myanmar? Where?

Bangladesh? Where?

Pakistan? Well it can be solved if they go by the UN resolution wherein a Plebiscite is to be held ONCE PAKISTAN REMOVES THEIR CIVILIANS AND THE MILITARY. The UN resolution allows India to have troops.

There is no belligerency on India's part. It is just that India is too concerned being statesmanlike in international relationship and believes that dialogue alone is the way to solve issue. But for a Chinese, that would be difficult to understand since they believe the world revolves around the asinine theory that it is Middle Kingdom and so everything must be resolved by might and threats. The Chinese fail to realise that they becoming but a fly in the ointment.

It is the weak and those afflicted with insecurity who thunder but rarely pour! Mao has a very interesting phrase – Paper Tiger – and China is proving to be so. All thunder but no go! Belligerent talk and postures, but cowering away at the first sign of resistance.

But then coming from a Chinese, who has dispute with everyone, it is an abomination to logic!

India's progress is not stupendous, but then either one is to be a democracy and take along its population or be a totalitarian Communist regime and frogmarch all into the Golden Paradise of a caged bird – singing when ordered to do so!

The Indian Army is apolitical. If it were not so, then it would have gone the way China's bosom friend Pakistan has gone! But then China prefers autocratic and illegal regimes which do away with the niceties of a democracy where the people are supreme, since China itself has a regime that is not Vov Populi, nor Vox Dei! It is Vox Xi, who makes the Chinese go Jumping! Birds of a feather naturally have to flock together!

Indians do yearn for better life and there is no doubt about that. However, they do not want a better life like a caged bird in a gilded cage as in China. Have no doubts about that. Materialism is no path to happiness. Note how the Westerners are seeking solace in Oriental mysticism. Mental happiness is greater than material comfort.

But those who have emerged from abject poverty, as in China, and are starry eyed with money that can buy things that were but a dream before, will they understand it so early? Once they find that all their materialism has reached saturation, they too, like the West will go back to their ancient tomes to seek the peace of mind. Robots do not rule the world, minds do and the Chinese are but robotic, responding to stimuli like the Pavlovian experiment with Dogs.

The fact that China dreads being 'encircled' and 'contained' is so evident from their own frogmarched media. If China was confident of itself, then it would not go into the mad rush to arm itself to the teeth or take on weak nations in the Pacific Rim, but baulk when it comes to Japan.

China has no strategic issue? Really? Notwithstanding this crass disinformation pattered out, I concede that China has a greater and a more dangerous issue - the domestic issue. The inequality of growth and its fallout in benefits, the princelings cornering the fat of the land, the Southerners realising that they are working their backside off and contributing, while the Northerners are enjoying and the East benefiting at the cost of the West, the failure to convert the Tibetans and Uighurs into Han are greater issues that the Communist China worries about and which can cause the ruination of the concept of China . Or else, why should 'harmony and stability' be such a big deal? There is nothing harmonious or stable about the world!

It is juvenile to pretend that China is arming herself in Tibet to the teeth just for a lark! It is merely China's insecurity that speaks. They quake at the idea that India is not India of 1962.

India does not have to invade Pakistan.

They are invading themselves amongst themselves!

It is only a matter of time.

That is why China is entrenching herself in Northern Kashmir, so that they usurp it and gobble it as they have done historically all the time!
 
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Ray

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India needs to get its act together... China has more to fear from a weak, insecure India than a strong, confident India.
China has more to fear its own.

That is why to feed its insecurity, they require to invoke silly programmes like 100 Years of National Shame.

If Chinese Communists who are the sole rulers (Wang) were secure, they would not highlight the weakness of China and instead breast beat the successes to instill pride!

One resorts to negative thoughts and negative example when one is insecure!

For instance, if you do that you will face the wrath of God!

If God was benign and forgiving, as it is also said, then why must the Fear of God have to be instilled.

The reason is simple - Insecurity and the fact that otherwise the followers will not be ready to accept the claptrap that is doled out!

Likewise is with the Chinese Govt and its Wang, the CCP!

They are highlighted the Shame of China of being kicked around the deck so that the message that if they don't obey the CCP, they will go down the same path!

The Chinese like the noveau riche, enjoying a high style of life having emerged from poverty and Mao suits, are mesmerised and are hallucinating that the CCP is their Saviour and the Second Coming of Christ and so they have to obey the CCP or have another 100 years of Shame coming to them!


Excellent disinformation and propaganda for the gullible and robotic!
 
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W.G.Ewald

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That is why China is entrenching herself in Northern Kashmir, so that they usurp it and gobble it as they have done historically all the time!
Those words seem prophetic.

This article is from 2 years ago.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/27/opinion/27iht-edharrison.html?_r=0
While the world focuses on the flood-ravaged Indus River valley, a quiet geopolitical crisis is unfolding in the Himalayan borderlands of northern Pakistan, where Islamabad is handing over de facto control of the strategic Gilgit-Baltistan region in the northwest corner of disputed Kashmir to China.
 

panduranghari

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On the other hand, his proposal to raise taxes on imports might bring more car production to India.

Comments: Exclusive: Jaguar Land Rover studying full production in India - sources | Reuters

There are always two sides to a coin.
Interesting.

How does this play out in the long term.

Is just manufacturing good enough or do we need more R&D? Without R'D there is no progress, besides china has already screwed it self by having over manufacturing capacity. We do not need constant morsels from the high table of west.

Cameron came to India to get investment in R&D for UK. He would like manufacturing too but he knows the bigger pie is the research bit so you still own the patents.


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panduranghari

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Too late!
In mordern age, any revolution will highly likely turn to a civil war.
Neither indian people, nor world has the stomach to such a thing happen to india.
Not in India. Civil war is ideological. In India there is no ideology. That is the strength and weakness of India.


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