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F16, a dwindling list of likely buyers
FORT WORTH — The end of the line for Lockheed Martin's F-16 production line in Fort Worth may finally be in sight.
Nearly four decades after the fighter jet program was launched and 35 years after production began, Lockheed has a dwindling number of orders left to fill and a shrinking list of potential customers.
Lockheed has just 62 unfilled orders for new F-16s. Those are all in some stage of production, and the last is expected to roll out of the Fort Worth factory by mid-2013.
A total of 4,540 F-16s have been ordered since the plane went into production in 1975, after General Dynamics -- which owned the plant at that time -- won the Air Force's lightweight fighter competition. A decade ago, the program was thought to be winding down, but a series of late-life foreign orders has kept production lines rolling.
It has been a long, unprecedented run. And Lockheed's chief F-16 salesman, Bill McHenry, says he's confident that it won't end in 2013, 2014 or 2015 either.
"There is a requirement for the F-16 through the end of this decade," said McHenry, F-16 business development director. "Bill McHenry is not optimistic. He is determined the F-16 line will not shut down."
Where McHenry will turn up the orders to meet that commitment is the big question.
India recently eliminated the F-16 (and Boeing's F/A-18) from consideration for a 126-plane order that Lockheed had hoped would keep production going for years to come.
The U.S. government has given permission for Lockheed to sell F-16s to Oman and Iraq. When those deals are made for up to 18 planes each -- when, not if, McHenry says -- "it will extend the production line beyond 2013."
He also believes that the U.S. will eventually allow Taiwan to buy the 66 planes it has long wanted. Both the Bush and Obama administrations, with an eye on not provoking China, have denied Taiwan's request.
"I'm cautiously optimistic about Taiwan," McHenry said. "We're seeing a lot of congressional support for fighters to Taiwan."
Aerospace industry analysts say they're not as optimistic about the F-16's future, now that the deal with India has fallen by the wayside.
"It cheated death in the '90s," said Richard Aboulafia, Teal Group analyst. "There's always a chance it will evade death again."
Even Oman may be iffy. "They're also talking to Eurofighter," Aboulafia said. Iraq's government and its relations with the U.S. may make an F-16 deal there questionable.
Doug Royce, analyst for Forecast International, doesn't think a sale to Taiwan is likely at all. Shrinking budgets and poor credit conditions may prevent other nations from buying planes.
"Eastern Europe would be the best shot for [Lockheed], but like the rest of Europe, they have financial problems," he said.
About 2,000 people still work on Lockheed's F-16 production line, which was moved to a separate hangar over the last couple of years to make room for F-35 work.
The forward and mid-fuselage sections are still manufactured in the Fort Worth plant. Aircraft for Morocco and Egypt are now being assembled there, at a rate of about 11/2 planes a month. Turkish Aircraft Industries is performing final assembly in Ankara, Turkey, for the 30 F-16s that nation has ordered.
Analysts say the likelihood of the Pentagon buying more F-16s is beyond remote. Even given shrinking defense budgets and the troubles of the F-35 joint strike fighter program, the Air Force won't be buying $55 million F-16s rather than $100 million F-35s.
