China's Huge Labor Shortage begins

Ray

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Only some Russians are better off now than they were in the Soviet era, but some are not, and that is with 20 years of economic growth. Does the total utility of the Russian people today exceeds that had the reform been more gradual, or not happened? Hard to tell.

I am sure that there are Russians who are willing to return to the Soviet days, but no Chinese the Mao times. The USSR was a developed nation with material comfort for all. Mao's China was not.

Public enterprises can be just as efficient of private enterprises. Reformed public enterprises can be just as virtuous as you think private enterprises are. There are also certain advantages to large public enterprises, in the long-term. Their sometimes non-profit seeking motives can prove to be valuable for economic development.

What would happen if one big state enterprise in a sector is replaced by one big private enterprise, or several small private enterprise? Which by the way is highly unlikely because the state is still clinging onto their communist ideals, for that 'one day'. Despite rightist persuasion, I can not say for sure if it will have a more desirable outcome overall than present. This is the wisdom in the Chinese reform that everything is undertaken at such speed as to be reversible.
I wonder if Russian had material comfort under the Soviet regime. One room apartments and that too obtainable after years of wait, bread lines, shops with shelves empty is hardly material comfort.

Mao's China may have had many things wrong, but I believe that, like the Soviet ear, the basic amenities to live life, was available to all the citizens. Today, the people of Beijing are have greater amenities than the hinterland and even the education quota ensures that the Beijing population has a headstart over the others and thus, they will be better positioned to get jobs.

Public enterprises can never be better than private enterprise since job security is guaranteed and it is not linked to productivity of the individual.

The non profit character of the public owned enterprises theoretically may assist the economy, but in reality, it is open to manipulation by the Govt to serve its political purpose and thus becomes unproductive.

There is nothing like 'reformed' public enterprises. It is still is a political tool and can be manipulated for non profitable avenues including corruption.
 

badguy2000

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Today's Russian people are living better life than Soviet era, even though they are no longer so called "super power". Ask majority of Russian and majority Chinese people if they want to go back to Soviet or Mao's time respectively. You will get answer. It's understandable you defend the place where the mouth is feeding. But million of Chinese don't have your privilege and I would rather find out how it could be corrected.
well, since when have I become one of the "privilege"? just 2 years ago, I was annoyed how to get a proper job after I graduated as one of millions of college graduates.

and since when have "majorirty of Chinese people" be represented by you?

you can ask whether "majority of CHinese people" are happy that China collapse like USSR?
 

badguy2000

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What you pointed out is true with India too. The State owned enterprises monopolize critical industries. Indian Private enterprises are better managed with better pay.
but MR.kickok never thinks India's state-owned enterprises are the conspiracy of BJP or Congress. He just want to tell us that China's state-owned enterprises are the conspiracy of CCP.

that is the difference.
 

badguy2000

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I wonder if Russian had material comfort under the Soviet regime. One room apartments and that too obtainable after years of wait, bread lines, shops with shelves empty is hardly material comfort.

Mao's China may have had many things wrong, but I believe that, like the Soviet ear, the basic amenities to live life, was available to all the citizens. Today, the people of Beijing are have greater amenities than the hinterland and even the education quota ensures that the Beijing population has a headstart over the others and thus, they will be better positioned to get jobs.
Mao's CHina was a agriculture-based economy while soviet was a industrialized economy.

Soviet's per captial GDP was 10-20 time more than that of Mao's China.

Soviet's citizens were annoyed that they could not buy a decent family car,but Citizens in Mao's China were annoyed that they could not get eough food to feed their families.

that is the difference .

Public enterprises can never be better than private enterprise since job security is guaranteed and it is not linked to productivity of the individual.
that is your belief, but it is not self-evident truth.
The non profit character of the public owned enterprises theoretically may assist the economy, but in reality, it is open to manipulation by the Govt to serve its political purpose and thus becomes unproductive.

There is nothing like 'reformed' public enterprises. It is still is a political tool and can be manipulated for non profitable avenues including corruption.
to some extent, you are right. that is , the primary objects of State-owned enterprise should not be "profitable",but a tool.

But it is not a tool for babus' corruption,but a tool for the "state" to control and adjust the operation of economy and guide the upgrade of industry structure.
 

amoy

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the primary objects of State-owned enterprise should not be "profitable",but a tool.
Private enterprises barely take the risk investing on those 'long-term' projects that may not generate a short-term return on investment (like infrastructures). Besides state-owned entriprises act more aggressively in overseas ventures as being backed by the "state capitalism" than private ones.

But since most of state run "public" enterprises (inclding banking giants like ICBC) have got listed in bourses they're supposed to generate profits for investors (like me). In that connection inevitaly a 'conflict' arises btwn their missions as a state 'tool' or 'vehicle' to 'control' or 'regulate', and obligation to churn out profits.
 

nimo_cn

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Many college graduates couldn't find job because Chinese private business is not strong enough. Joining big state company and government is currently considered as privilege. Private section is oppressed and squeezed by big monster state companies that monopoly national resources and always got favorable treatment from state bank and local government. That's why we never see any private company can grow as big as China mobile, China oil etc. And we all know how corrupt and incompetent these state companies are.

CCP understand private section could hire more people and help them stabilize the country. They will take advantage of it but don't want it to grow too strong to challenge their regime. So on one hand they encourage small business but on the other hand they arrest, demonize some big and rich private business owners to ensure this section of business is under their tight watch.

That's the problem for China. A political system that is increasingly becomes obstacle of economic development.
Aha,kickok is able to find a way to criticize the current Chinese political system, whatever topics we are on.

kickok, let me remind you, even if China magically turns into a "democratic" country as you have been suggesting, there still will be a lot of other problems. What will you suggest if that happens?

Here is my two cents on the unemployment of Chinese college students. Being one of them, I think I know more about it than an overseas Chinese. I think there are 2 main reasons that are causing this problems.

1> Chinese economy is still heavily relying on the low-end manufacuring which requires more cheap peasant workers and can't absorb so many college students. Unless China manages to upgrade the economy structure into a higher level, the prolems remain in a short term.

2> There are too many college students, and a large amount of them are not qualified to get a job due to their incompetence caused by Chinese crappy college education system.

I can't think of any relation between the unemployment of college students and the performance state-run companies. Neither could I figure out any relation between the unemployment of college students and the one party system.

Umepmloyment exists in almost every country, including the country you are living in, it is merely a economic issue. Why keep dragging politics into a pure economic issue?
 
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nimo_cn

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What you pointed out is true with India too. The State owned enterprises monopolize critical industries. Indian Private enterprises are better managed with better pay.
Some critical sectors should be controlled by the state one way or another, state-run company is a typical way. Efficiency may be sacrified in this regard, but we will reap other benefits from it.
 

kickok1975

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Aha,kickok is able to find a way to criticize the current Chinese political system, whatever topics we are on.

kickok, let me remind you, even if China magically turns into a "democratic" country as you have been suggesting, there still will be a lot of other problems. What will you suggest if that happens?

Here is my two cents on the unemployment of Chinese college students. Being one of them, I think I know more about it than an overseas Chinese. I think there are 2 main reasons that are causing this problems.

1> Chinese economy is still heavily relying on the low-end manufacuring which requires more cheap peasant workers and can't absorb so many college students. Unless China manages to upgrade the economy structure into a higher level, the prolems remain in a short term.

2> There are too many college students, and a large amount of them are not qualified to get a job due to their incompetence caused by Chinese crappy college education system.

I can't think of any relation between the unemployment of college students and the performance state-run companies. Neither could I figure out any relation between the unemployment of college students and the one party system.

Umepmloyment exists in almost every country, including the country you are living in, it is merely a economic issue. Why keep dragging politics into a pure economic issue?
To answer your comments:

First, its small business and foreign enterprise hired majority of Chinese migrant workers. And ironically, most of them are private business. State controlled companies don't create nearly as many jobs, not even close. It's the fact Chinese economy is heavily rely on low end manufacturing. But these low end manufacturing companies are usually private owned. Its private business that creates and maintain job for migrant workers which support China's vast rural labor force that would have been a source of instability had they not have job.

Second. Just like you said, there are millions students graduate each year from Chinese crappy education system. Even though a lot of them are incompetent, they usually not willing to join force with migrant worker to start in some private small business. Instead, a lot of them want to work in Bank, government agencies and large state company. Why? Working there means less pressure, bigger pay, more stable, more power and higher social standing. Even better, it may help them to find an ideal mate. Are they wrong? no, it's no brainer! I would work there too since majority source is controlled by them. But how many of these newly graduates can get such job? So my suggestion to them is this: go to the place where job is created.

Third. Should China become a highly industrialized country, she cannot rely on state enterprise. Yes big state company can take some risk to build some giant project private company is unwilling to take. But they could also waste tremendous tax payer's money in bureaucracy and incompetence that private business could better manage. There are quite a few huge overseas purchases and investments by Chinese state companies and invest fund in recent years. Did they get good deal? Not necessary. But many executives of these companies are surely getting good deal, as report by overseas media.

If government offer enough support, private business could also take risk, build large project, wonderful products and outperform their state counterpart. Engine built by GE, Plane built by Boeing,F-22 built by Lockheed Martin are some good examples.

Capitalism and free enterprise are ways for a country to go prosperous, not communism. Even CCP government recognizes it and reformed Chinese economy to free market. But they have more things yet to be done.
 
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kickok1975

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I once worked for ICBC, the global biggest bank tycoon now. I myself experienced its torturous "transforming" from a inefficient bureaucratic apparatus to global most profitibal bank.

In fact, It was just because ICBC's "transform" was tooo torturous that I quit ICBC several years ago .

I know that chinese state-owned enterprises are not perfect,but still better than wall street fat cats.
Wall Street Fat Cat is probably evil, but unlike our state enterprise, they know how to operate and make money. Our most profitable and biggest state bank ICBC a few years ago sold around 23% of their share to Morgan Stanley for less than 500 million dollars. I recently heard Stanley just made billion of it. Our brilliant Chinese investment found was advised by Goldman Sachs to invest billions in Blackrock as a good deal investment. In a little over half year, they lost half billion. The list can go on and on.

You have no idea how much hard earned money our State companies, Banks have thrown away in overseas. Any one is hold accountable? I hardly heard any.
 
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Ray

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Mao's CHina was a agriculture-based economy while soviet was a industrialized economy.

Soviet's per captial GDP was 10-20 time more than that of Mao's China.

Soviet's citizens were annoyed that they could not buy a decent family car,but Citizens in Mao's China were annoyed that they could not get eough food to feed their families.

that is the difference .



that is your belief, but it is not self-evident truth.


to some extent, you are right. that is , the primary objects of State-owned enterprise should not be "profitable",but a tool.

But it is not a tool for babus' corruption,but a tool for the "state" to control and adjust the operation of economy and guide the upgrade of industry structure.
Russia was not only industry based, but also agriculture.

Droughts and famines in Russia and the USSR tended to occur on a fairly regular basis, with famine occurring every 10–13 years and droughts every 5–7 years. Golubev and Dronin distinguish three types of drought according to productive areas vulnerable to droughts: Central (Volga basin, Northern Caucasus), and Central Chernozem Region), Southern (Volga and Volga-Vyatka area , Ural, Ukraine), and Eastern (steppe and forest-steppe belts Western and Eastern Siberia and Kazakhstan).

The Golubev and Dronin report gives the following table of the major droughts in Russia.

* Central: 1920, 1924, 1936, 1946, 1972, 1979, 1981, 1984.
* Southern: 1901, 1906, 1921, 1939, 1948, 1951, 1957, 1975, 1995.
* Eastern: 1911, 1931, 1963, 1965, 1991.

I would be surprised if the State enterprises are not manipulated by bureaucrats, no matter which country it is.

Let us look at what is known as 'Command Economy'.

The command economy is also monolithic. That is, there are no significant organizations outside the planned economy that compete with units inside. Because of the lack of competition and markets, prices do not carry much information useful in economic decision making. Instead, important information flows mainly through a few narrow channels connecting lower and higher levels. The importance and scarcity of official information channels means that they become the focus of interest of many different individuals. Those at lower levels, for example, have an interest in retaining information so that they can use this scarce resource to advance their own careers. The same superior-subordinate relations are used to structure information gathering and to issue commands, so the incentives to manipulate and distort those relations are very great. Bargaining within the bureaucracy is concentrated on the level of commands coming down the bureaucratic chain and the type of information going up: it is predominantly "plan bargaining."

In ordinary times this bargaining takes the form of "hiding reserves." Lower-level units wish to conceal capacity from their superiors in order to obtain plans that are easy to fulfil. In that way, they can be assured of a quiet life and an adequate income. Thus, the economic system as a whole tends to sink into a low-level equilibrium of low productivity and low effort. The situation is neatly captured by an epigram from Eastern Europe: "They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work." In this respect, the command economy resembles any bureaucratic system, which may fall into this low-level trap when morale is low, tasks routinised, and external checks weak. The basic problem is that the narrow channels connecting subordinates to superiors become clogged with pseudoinformation, which is often intentionally distorted. While the system continues to report thousands of "bits" of data, the actual information content is quite limited. Production data are abundant, but these reflect merely an institutional consensus about appropriate levels of effort, rather than actual information about attainable levels of output. Uniformly organized production units all report more or less adequate performances, and it becomes impossible to know, for instance, the potential savings in energy usage that could be achieved by a drastically reshaped enterprise. Because of this impoverished information flow, it becomes difficult for leaders to get the kind of response from the "command economy" that they desire. The "command economy"—a model of subordination to the leader's will— becomes instead the "bureaucratic economy"—a model of unresponsiveness. It would be best to characterize these systems as "command-bureaucratic economies" to capture both the authoritarian flavor and the sense of unresponsiveness which the word bureaucratic has come to carry in daily language.

One of the curiosities of the command economy is the tendency of the system to generate an opposite, superresponsive kind of behavior during certain exceptional periods. During exceptional "forward leaps" a different response emerges, which we can call Stakhanovite after the Soviet coal miner who hewed 104 tons of coal—fourteen times his output quota—on one particularly good day in 1935. During these periods the incentive structure is altered to reward exceptional achievements, and production workers and units begin vying to overfulfill their plans by ever more astonishing margins. Suddenly, all the desire to conceal reserves is abandoned: in the context of a revivalist spirit, the worker-hero shatters the stagnation of the bureaucratic system. Certainly the most spectacular example of this behavior shift was the Great Leap Forward in China, when it seemed for a period that all the laws of nature had been repealed. In 1958 cadres eager for recognition reported spectacular grain harvests, leading the central leadership to believe that China's total harvest had increased by a miraculous amount. The commands that followed included instructions to reduce the acreage sown to grain and increase deliveries of grain to the state, thus leading directly to disastrous famine. While Stakhanovite leaps forward seem to be the opposite of the bureaucratic economy, they are really just the flip side of the same phenomenon. In both cases, the tangling of the incentive system and information flows creates a distorted and degraded flow of information; the indeterminacy of the whole system, because of the absence of external checks, permits the most outrageous outcomes to appear acceptable for a period. The extremes of stagnation and Stakhanovite leaps forward are both more likely when central planners have a weak and uncertain grasp over concrete decision making in the economy.

What determines the level of effective control over the economy exerted by central planners? The size and complexity of the economy play a major role, and Chinese planners would face a formidable control problem under any conceivable system. More specifically, however, effective control basically depends on two factors. The first is the direct control over resources—particularly investment resources—exercised by planners, and the second is the quality of the information available to planners. In both these respects, Chinese planners were exceptionally weak before reforms. Even before reforms, financial control over one-third of investment had been decentralized, and only two-thirds of investment was disbursed directly through the government budget. Slightly less than half of state investment went for projects that were included in the central-government investment plan. Moreover, central-government resources were tied up in the misguided "Third Front" development strategy, leaving central planners with little freedom to shift resources in response to changing priorities. Even more striking was the decline in the quality of the information available to planners. During the Cultural Revolution the State Statistical Bureau was reduced sharply in size, and most of its functions were incorporated into the planning commissions at all levels. This meant that the government sacrificed a semiautonomous source of information and became completely dependent on information channeled directly through the industrial hierarchy. Moreover, the whole scope of statistics gathering changed. Previously, the Statistical Bureau had been charged with gathering data about the entire economy, but as control over significant blocks of resources was decentralized, the data-collection network shrank to cover only those areas directly under central control. Thus, when control over "technical transformation" investment was decentralized, the government ceased to collect information about this important component of investment. The government literally did not know how much total investment was taking place.] Similarly, materials that were under local control and "balanced" by local authorities were not incorporated into the central-government balancing process at all. Of course, the government continued to collect output figures, but it made no effort to coordinate sources and uses of this important portion of total output. Finally, the decimation of the technically skilled economic bureaucracy meant that only relatively crude direction of resource flows could take place. Only a few hundred commodities were centrally planned, whereas in the Soviet Union several thousand such commodities are planned. With limited skills and limited information, the central government was unable to exercise detailed control over even those portions of the economy where it nominally possessed absolute authority.

China's economic system before reform was unquestionably a "command economy," but it is of only limited value to describe it as a centrally planned economy. While the Center had enormous formal authority, and while the ultimate centralization of the Communist Party and other aspects of the political system cannot be neglected, the Center was extraordinarily weak compared with other planned economies. As a result, the industrial economy was unresponsive to attempts to regulate daily decision making but was at the same time vulnerable to recurrent periods of leaping forward. One case that occurred on the eve of economic reform is symptomatic of the weakness of central control. In November 1977 the State Council approved a proposal to build at Baoshan in the Shanghai suburbs an advanced iron mill, to be imported from Japan and capable of supplying 5 million metric tons (MMT) of iron annually. Within six months of approval, the cost of the projected plant had approximately quadrupled, as it was expanded to a comprehensive steel mill producing 6 MMT of iron and 6 MMT of steel, plus continuous hot and cold steel rolling mills. Yet at this time no blueprints or construction plans had ever been submitted to the central Planning Commission. In July 1978 the Planning Commission finally obtained and approved blueprints, but the discovery that the designs submitted incorporated a further expansion of the project and still more cost increases led to escalating doubts. Subsequent rethinking led to the recognition that the project was deeply flawed, but by that time contracts had been signed with Japanese suppliers that basically locked the government into the proposal. Ultimately, the government proceeded with a project with a total cost of over 20 billion yuan (over $4 billion at today's exchange rates), in spite of the fact that planners had not possessed any detailed information about the project until it was already under way. Surely few decisions of this magnitude have ever been made on such a flimsy information base. We can speculate that cases like this, occurring after the door had been decisively closed on the Cultural Revolution era, forced China's leaders to recognize the weakness of their bureaucratic decision-making process and made them more receptive to the possibility of economic reform.
 

badguy2000

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Wall Street Fat Cat is probably evil, but unlike our state enterprise, they know how to operate and make money.
Madoff and Enron say hellow to you!
the bail pacakage of 500 billion Dollar says hellow to you!

the exact description should be that "they(wall street fat cats") know how to suck money from global people,whether their operations is successes or failures".

BTW, FT reports that the bonus poor of wall street is unprecedented 120 billion dollars....although the influence of 2008 crisis is still there.

Our most profitable and biggest state bank ICBC a few years ago sold around 23% of their share to Morgan Stanley for less than 500 million dollars. I recently heard Stanley just made billion of it. Our brilliant Chinese investment found was advised by Goldman Sachs to invest billions in Blackrock as a good deal investment. In a little over half year, they lost half billion. The list can go on and on.
well, as I know, it is wall street,instead of ICBC, that is being bailed. And as I know, ICBC earn more than Stanley.

BTW, can you tell me how much of the trillion bail package has be returned to Yankee's taxpayers?


You have no idea how much hard earned money our State companies, Banks have thrown away in overseas. Any one is hold accountable? I hardly heard any.
guy,my observation is that it is harder and harder for oversea Chinese ,hongkongese and Taiwanese like you to show off the superority complex in the front of mainland Chinese,when the economy gap between mainland China and developed economy is shrinking rapidly day by day...

NO Chinese text without translation. I have mentioned it many a time. We are not here to translate your Chinese. Take that as a fair warning. This is an ENGLISH forum.

- Ray
 
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Ray

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Part of your Chinese text said

Economic basis decision upper formation construction. But the China and the West economic gap getting smaller, will look like your this kind "the overseas Chinese" to discover that which kind of inexplicable marvelous superiority feeling more and more will be unable to say for certain in front of the mainland person to hold"¦. Tells the facts, my Keli has the Canadian sea turtle which one 06 years come back.

Your private 'cautioning' in a foreign language on this forum is NOT acceptable.
 

badguy2000

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Russia was not only industry based, but also agriculture.

Droughts and famines in Russia and the USSR tended to occur on a fairly regular basis, with famine occurring every 10–13 years and droughts every 5–7 years. Golubev and Dronin distinguish three types of drought according to productive areas vulnerable to droughts: Central (Volga basin, Northern Caucasus), and Central Chernozem Region), Southern (Volga and Volga-Vyatka area , Ural, Ukraine), and Eastern (steppe and forest-steppe belts Western and Eastern Siberia and Kazakhstan).

The Golubev and Dronin report gives the following table of the major droughts in Russia.

* Central: 1920, 1924, 1936, 1946, 1972, 1979, 1981, 1984.
* Southern: 1901, 1906, 1921, 1939, 1948, 1951, 1957, 1975, 1995.
* Eastern: 1911, 1931, 1963, 1965, 1991.
well. the main problem of soviet is not that it food harvest.
besides, SOviet had powerful industry base and had enough gold/hard cash to import food to feed its people.

I would be surprised if the State enterprises are not manipulated by bureaucrats, no matter which country it is.

Let us look at what is known as 'Command Economy'.

The command economy is also monolithic. That is, there are no significant organizations outside the planned economy that compete with units inside. Because of the lack of competition and markets, prices do not carry much information useful in economic decision making. Instead, important information flows mainly through a few narrow channels connecting lower and higher levels. The importance and scarcity of official information channels means that they become the focus of interest of many different individuals. Those at lower levels, for example, have an interest in retaining information so that they can use this scarce resource to advance their own careers. The same superior-subordinate relations are used to structure information gathering and to issue commands, so the incentives to manipulate and distort those relations are very great. Bargaining within the bureaucracy is concentrated on the level of commands coming down the bureaucratic chain and the type of information going up: it is predominantly "plan bargaining."

In ordinary times this bargaining takes the form of "hiding reserves." Lower-level units wish to conceal capacity from their superiors in order to obtain plans that are easy to fulfil. In that way, they can be assured of a quiet life and an adequate income. Thus, the economic system as a whole tends to sink into a low-level equilibrium of low productivity and low effort. The situation is neatly captured by an epigram from Eastern Europe: "They pretend to pay us, and we pretend to work." In this respect, the command economy resembles any bureaucratic system, which may fall into this low-level trap when morale is low, tasks routinised, and external checks weak. The basic problem is that the narrow channels connecting subordinates to superiors become clogged with pseudoinformation, which is often intentionally distorted. While the system continues to report thousands of "bits" of data, the actual information content is quite limited. Production data are abundant, but these reflect merely an institutional consensus about appropriate levels of effort, rather than actual information about attainable levels of output. Uniformly organized production units all report more or less adequate performances, and it becomes impossible to know, for instance, the potential savings in energy usage that could be achieved by a drastically reshaped enterprise. Because of this impoverished information flow, it becomes difficult for leaders to get the kind of response from the "command economy" that they desire. The "command economy"—a model of subordination to the leader's will— becomes instead the "bureaucratic economy"—a model of unresponsiveness. It would be best to characterize these systems as "command-bureaucratic economies" to capture both the authoritarian flavor and the sense of unresponsiveness which the word bureaucratic has come to carry in daily language.

One of the curiosities of the command economy is the tendency of the system to generate an opposite, superresponsive kind of behavior during certain exceptional periods. During exceptional "forward leaps" a different response emerges, which we can call Stakhanovite after the Soviet coal miner who hewed 104 tons of coal—fourteen times his output quota—on one particularly good day in 1935. During these periods the incentive structure is altered to reward exceptional achievements, and production workers and units begin vying to overfulfill their plans by ever more astonishing margins. Suddenly, all the desire to conceal reserves is abandoned: in the context of a revivalist spirit, the worker-hero shatters the stagnation of the bureaucratic system. Certainly the most spectacular example of this behavior shift was the Great Leap Forward in China, when it seemed for a period that all the laws of nature had been repealed. In 1958 cadres eager for recognition reported spectacular grain harvests, leading the central leadership to believe that China's total harvest had increased by a miraculous amount. The commands that followed included instructions to reduce the acreage sown to grain and increase deliveries of grain to the state, thus leading directly to disastrous famine. While Stakhanovite leaps forward seem to be the opposite of the bureaucratic economy, they are really just the flip side of the same phenomenon. In both cases, the tangling of the incentive system and information flows creates a distorted and degraded flow of information; the indeterminacy of the whole system, because of the absence of external checks, permits the most outrageous outcomes to appear acceptable for a period. The extremes of stagnation and Stakhanovite leaps forward are both more likely when central planners have a weak and uncertain grasp over concrete decision making in the economy.

What determines the level of effective control over the economy exerted by central planners? The size and complexity of the economy play a major role, and Chinese planners would face a formidable control problem under any conceivable system. More specifically, however, effective control basically depends on two factors. The first is the direct control over resources—particularly investment resources—exercised by planners, and the second is the quality of the information available to planners. In both these respects, Chinese planners were exceptionally weak before reforms. Even before reforms, financial control over one-third of investment had been decentralized, and only two-thirds of investment was disbursed directly through the government budget. Slightly less than half of state investment went for projects that were included in the central-government investment plan. Moreover, central-government resources were tied up in the misguided "Third Front" development strategy, leaving central planners with little freedom to shift resources in response to changing priorities. Even more striking was the decline in the quality of the information available to planners. During the Cultural Revolution the State Statistical Bureau was reduced sharply in size, and most of its functions were incorporated into the planning commissions at all levels. This meant that the government sacrificed a semiautonomous source of information and became completely dependent on information channeled directly through the industrial hierarchy. Moreover, the whole scope of statistics gathering changed. Previously, the Statistical Bureau had been charged with gathering data about the entire economy, but as control over significant blocks of resources was decentralized, the data-collection network shrank to cover only those areas directly under central control. Thus, when control over "technical transformation" investment was decentralized, the government ceased to collect information about this important component of investment. The government literally did not know how much total investment was taking place.] Similarly, materials that were under local control and "balanced" by local authorities were not incorporated into the central-government balancing process at all. Of course, the government continued to collect output figures, but it made no effort to coordinate sources and uses of this important portion of total output. Finally, the decimation of the technically skilled economic bureaucracy meant that only relatively crude direction of resource flows could take place. Only a few hundred commodities were centrally planned, whereas in the Soviet Union several thousand such commodities are planned. With limited skills and limited information, the central government was unable to exercise detailed control over even those portions of the economy where it nominally possessed absolute authority.

China's economic system before reform was unquestionably a "command economy," but it is of only limited value to describe it as a centrally planned economy. While the Center had enormous formal authority, and while the ultimate centralization of the Communist Party and other aspects of the political system cannot be neglected, the Center was extraordinarily weak compared with other planned economies. As a result, the industrial economy was unresponsive to attempts to regulate daily decision making but was at the same time vulnerable to recurrent periods of leaping forward. One case that occurred on the eve of economic reform is symptomatic of the weakness of central control. In November 1977 the State Council approved a proposal to build at Baoshan in the Shanghai suburbs an advanced iron mill, to be imported from Japan and capable of supplying 5 million metric tons (MMT) of iron annually. Within six months of approval, the cost of the projected plant had approximately quadrupled, as it was expanded to a comprehensive steel mill producing 6 MMT of iron and 6 MMT of steel, plus continuous hot and cold steel rolling mills. Yet at this time no blueprints or construction plans had ever been submitted to the central Planning Commission. In July 1978 the Planning Commission finally obtained and approved blueprints, but the discovery that the designs submitted incorporated a further expansion of the project and still more cost increases led to escalating doubts. Subsequent rethinking led to the recognition that the project was deeply flawed, but by that time contracts had been signed with Japanese suppliers that basically locked the government into the proposal. Ultimately, the government proceeded with a project with a total cost of over 20 billion yuan (over $4 billion at today's exchange rates), in spite of the fact that planners had not possessed any detailed information about the project until it was already under way. Surely few decisions of this magnitude have ever been made on such a flimsy information base. We can speculate that cases like this, occurring after the door had been decisively closed on the Cultural Revolution era, forced China's leaders to recognize the weakness of their bureaucratic decision-making process and made them more receptive to the possibility of economic reform.
you types soo long a text about CHina..but almost all are outdated.
 

Ray

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USSR was not that rich or concerned to import foodgrains.

Of course, what I write has to be outdated since Mao and his era is not there today.

Your comparison, if I may remind you, was China and USSR.

USSR and Mao exist today?

So, what is this OUTDATED about?

Please understand that Indians do read about other countries and not sit around like a frog in the well (在井的青蛙。) as many may do.

Long posts help less space for others to manoeuvre and obfuscate with semantic callisthenics.
 

badguy2000

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Part of your Chinese text said

Economic basis decision upper formation construction. But the China and the West economic gap getting smaller, will look like your this kind "the overseas Chinese" to discover that which kind of inexplicable marvelous superiority feeling more and more will be unable to say for certain in front of the mainland person to hold"¦. Tells the facts, my Keli has the Canadian sea turtle which one 06 years come back.

Your private 'cautioning' in a foreign language on this forum is NOT acceptable.
what a terrible translation.....in fact it is something I want to tell kickok....

well, I now rewrite it in english as following:

oversea Chiense's "superiorty complex" in the front of mainland Chinese is based on their superior economy status.

With the economy gap shrinked rapidly between mainland CHina and developed economies, it is harder and harder for oversea Chinese like Kickok to keep their "superior complex" in the front of mainland Chinese 。

so,when the economy superiority is vanishing rapidly ,preaching stereotyped expessions like "democracy=good, CCP=evil" has become the only way of guys like kickok to show off their pathetic "superority complex"!

BTW, quite a few of my college/M-school classmates also studied abroad...

At that time, the quotas to study abroad were qutie limited in CHina.so those guys who could acquire quota to study abroad were all most talented of Chinese university students,so were those of my classmates. They were "the elite of the elites" among Chinese at that time!

But, as I know,the career of most my abroad classmates now are not as "splendid" as expected, although they once were most talented of us.
Had they stayed in CHina ,their careers would be much better.With their talent and good education ,they would be all the leaders of their professions in CHina ,I am sure.
 
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badguy2000

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well, just two week ago,that is during Chinese new year, my classmates and I had a party.

To my surprise,one of my classmate had come back and got a postion of the associate professor in one prestigous univ in Beijing,who once studied and worked abroad for almost one decade. Frankly speaking, it is very not easy for abroad Chinese to get such a postion now.....he is a lucky dog.

He told me that another one of my classmates in UK now had gone back to campus for a second master degree,because it was very hard for him to find a postion in banks in London now..........
 
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p2prada

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From what I know Soviet Union was the third richest country in the world just before dissolution. It was a little less than half the economy of US and half the per capita income. Soviet Union was also the third greatest industrial power behind US and Japan.

SU also had the largest industrial population in the world.

The problem SU faced was more economic than any major movement from the US. What they faced was same as what the Japanese faced only a decade later, ie, faulty domestic economic policies. If you notice the economic growth graph of SU from the 90s and the economic growth of the "SU" after 1990, you will see that after a brief stagnation there was a massive rise.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Soviet_Union_GDP.gif

After the breakup, the largest piece, Russia, was a $1.5 Trillion economy with negative growth. So, it is obvious that the SU was an economic giant, albeit dead. Boris Yeltsin messed up with economic Shock Therapy after 1991 and Russia lost nearly 50% of it's economy until Putin revved it up.

In the end, SU was rich, just not rich enough to maintain a superpower status.

As for China, it's economic policies are more in tune with Japan than US or SU. (Haha! I never noticed that until I just typed it: US-SU). As long as China makes sound economic policies and protects the internal market well from shock like what happened to the Japanese in the 90s, then they will be fine.

@badguy
Centralized economies are unsustainable. Your economy has still not grown to the point where we can see it's effects yet. But it is slowly happening. Unemployment and inflation are the best gauge for that.

China may call itself capitalist but monopolizes on all critical industries which has to change or there could be a major problem in the future. India is doing that faster than China is because we already have a capable private industry.

Banking. Out of the 4 largest banks in India, there is one private bank called ICICI. So, it's a good start for us in this sector as well.

Power: It was a Private industry, Reliance, in India which bought $10Billion of power related equipment from a state controlled private industry, Shanghai Electric. Reliance also got into a big deal with General Electric for power plants.

Both these sectors are the most critical in an economy.
 
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kickok1975

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Badguy, I never feel superior compare to my fellow Chinese living in main land, I'm from main land too. I believe normally you can do well if you try hard enough regardless of place you are living. And I know in China there are many talented and informed people.

But what bothers me is under China's current system, one may not get the opportunity to be successful even he/she tried the best. But someone next door probably could get all the benefit and prestige if he/she happens to be some party leader descendent, or offspring of government officials or have special networking with those rich and powerful. It creates tremendous injustice and discrimination in a country that is ruled by one party. And our state controlled bank, enterprise are the places where Party extends their will.

Like you said, Chinese economy is developing fast and mainland Chinese are no longer feeling extremely inferior to those overseas Chinese like once they felt before. How it happed? It's not because of our one party rule. It's because the party embrace the free market idea that stir up the free enterprise spirit of Chinese people. We are getting richer not because Party pays us more, it's the free enterprise that created millions job; the capitalism market that attracted billion of overseas investment, and hundreds of millions Chinese migrant worker that now can freely leave their home to seek work that create this miracle.

Now Chinese economy is at a tipping point of sustainability. The Party can continue acting as a catalyst or act like a roadblock. It's the choice they have to ultimately face: You want country first, or you want Party first?
 
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kickok1975

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A side note to badguy2000. Those so called most profitable Chinese state banks are actually burdened with mountain high of debt thanks to their reckless lending to state enterprises.

They can either write off those bad loans by Chinese people's money which is not controlled by Chinese people or wait for the bursting of it
 
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tgrhfei

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can you tell me where are you now?
it is very interesting to find a guy like you from a foreign forum.
 

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