China Tests Midcourse Missile Interception

[sayareakd]

we did see that chines ASAT video dont we..............

chines want show off.........nothing else.....................

 

[sayareakd]

China Says Missile Interception Test Successful | Asia | English

But the Chinese spokeswoman says it has not left any debris in space orbit and does not constitute a threat to the security of other spacecraft.
:stinker:

 

[shotgunner]

You did start your ABM in 1963, so Congrats!!

I believe you French started yours in 1451 or earlier right? Congrat!

 

[Armand2REP]

I believe you French started yours in 1451 or earlier right? Congrat!

Nope, just got the bill funded last month to start work on Aster Blk 2.

 

[nimo_cn]

BTW i would say, China has just fuel the arms race in the region

According to some Indians here, India has performed such test in 2006-2007. So tell me, has India fueled a arm race?

 

[jill_4587]

now,we only have these pics which is taken by a netizen in Xinjiang

the location is near Jiuquan,so the missile could be launched near from Kuerle where have test FJ-1.

 

[bengalraider]

my 0.02

Frankly I do not give a damn about this test, why you ask? well because it's a defensive system and an imperfect one at that, to intercept a missile whose trajectory and speed is already known is not an easy feat but not a particularly difficult task as well.China has had what! one success against a 30+yr old design missile.This proves nothing in a day and age when a probable missile attack on any chinese city is more likely to come from an SLCM/SLBM launched from a Submarine well whithin 500-1000miles of China's frontiers than any transcontinental missile i.e the warning time will be in seconds not minutes. Also Any missile launched from the ranges i am talking about Will not need to go Exo-atmospheric a far more likely possiblity will involve the missile following a Pseudo-ballistic trajectory whithin the atmosphere.As of today No nation has a 100% assured deterrence(other than nuclear retaliation) against that kind of attack. Also assuming that this is a miracle weapon that has a200% kill-probability some questions still remain unanswered.

1)how fast will this detect a theoratical launch?
2)what is the time whithin which the interceptor can take flight?
3)can it detect/differentiate dummy warheads from the real one?
4)is it road/ship mobile?
5)as others before me have pointed out the RADAR remains a big ?

Everything said and done the chinese have a right to self-defence just like the rest of us so i do not see any problems if they build an anti-missile system. heck! i do not see any problems if pakistan builds one.

 

[Armand2REP]

Alors, Russians. A Chinese missile shield would be a far bigger threat than a European one. If they ever get a working capability they may become emboldened enough to take on the Bear.

 

[sayareakd]

Google Translate

interesting chines article now translated with Google.

 

[ReneDad]

definitely yes.

definitely not.

Obviously such kind of technology can not be developed in one week and the test might scheduled months ago if it was not planned years ago. I don't think Beijing could predict when America would sell weapons to Taiwan at the time. Even if China could predict Ameircan's move, I think it would be really a stupid countermove against the weapon deal between Washington and Taipei----selling some bombs to Taliban would be better---LOL, I think China has a lot of resorts like DPRK, Iran, UN..... which could make American uncomfortable.

I think there are two reasons made China governemnt revealing the test at the time.

Firstly, there are American satellites spying such tests and there is no way to hide it. Last time China made a ASAT test and did not pronounce it in time, so American was able to reval the event at the time according to American interests. This time it seems like China government has improved its propaganda tactics.

Secondly, the weapon deal between America and Taiwan gave China a perfect opportunity to reveal the project without drawing attention and protest from those who really need to worry about it. Since US and Russia have hundreds to over a thousands ICBMs, I don't think they should worry about any Chinese BMDS, which are supposed only having limited number. I can count out a few countries which should worry about the event, but I think there has already had enough nationalism, so provoking out more is unwise.

 

[sayareakd]

chines are scared of A3, this test will give them some comfort.

 

[Armand2REP]

definitely not.

Obviously such kind of technology can not be developed in one week and the test might scheduled months ago if it was not planned years ago. I don't think Beijing could predict when America would sell weapons to Taiwan at the time. Even if China could predict Ameircan's move, I think it would be really a stupid countermove against the weapon deal between Washington and Taipei----selling some bombs to Taliban would be better---LOL, I think China has a lot of resorts like DPRK, Iran, UN..... which could make American uncomfortable.

I think there are two reasons made China governemnt revealing the test at the time.

Firstly, there are American satellites spying such tests and there is no way to hide it. Last time China made a ASAT test and did not pronounce it in time, so American was able to reval the event at the time according to American interests. This time it seems like China government has improved its propaganda tactics.

Secondly, the weapon deal between America and Taiwan gave China a prefect opportunity to reveal the project without drawing attention and protest from those who really need to worry about it. Since US and Russia have hundreds to over a thousands ICBMs, I don't they should worry about any Chinese BMDs, which are supposed only having limited number. I can count out a few countries which should worry about the event, but I think there has already had enough nationalism, so provoking out more is unwise.

Sure, China said they would make the US pay if they sold the Patriots to Taiwan. The response, collide two missiles. That is all they can do since their economy will collapse without them. Of course China knew it was coming, the order had been placed almost two years ago.

 

[bengalraider]

Alors, Russians. A Chinese missile shield would be a far bigger threat than a European one. If they ever get a working capability they may become emboldened enough to take on the Bear.

Apart for the fact that any war that goes nuclear between those two adversaries will result in both their destruction moreso for china as russian missiles launched from siberia will fly to Shanghai/Beijing far faster than any chinese missile can get to st.Petersburg/Moscow due to the difference in flying distance involved this will lead to conversley lower warning times for the chinese .

: Some examples on how in any Sino-Russian conflict China could be hit hard

One KH 55 launched from a Blackjack flying above irkutsk well whithin russian airspace above siberia could make the shield fail and take out beijing.

a Topol fired from Irkutsk will have to fly 1030 miles to Beijing at a velocity of roughly 3 miles/sec(the fastest man made missile ever) it should hit beijing in roughly around 6 minutes not enough time to prepare a interceptor strike or call for a general evacuation detection of such a launch should take around a minute assuming all systems work perfectly. now assuming the interceptor is fired it still has to deal with what in military circles has been known as one of the most advanced ICBM's ever with rumored mid-flight maneuvering capability and as many as 5 dummy warheads+one real one the Topol has for years given American missile defence planners nightmares. My analysis says two Topols launched at the same time will make even the Yanks fail as for the chinese they ain't got a hope in the world if this monster comes for them.

And this is just the beginning this vaunted shield has no hope against a SLBM launched at shanghai from a Delta at safe station in the Pacific.An SS-N-23 would cover a 1000mile distance (from a safe station in the pacific to shanghai) in just over 6 minutes no hope for any missile defence there as well.and by the way i forgot to mention this the SS-N-23 can carry upto 10 independent warheads(MIRV'S) each against such an onslaught the launchers will empty before the bombs fall.

The chinese better not get overconfident and call for a bear hug because as napoleon and hitler both discovered the bear can hug you hard.

 

[Armand2REP]

One KH 55 launched from a Blackjack flying above irkutsk well whithin russian airspace above siberia could make the shield fail and take out beijing.

Peking is surrounded by TOR-M1s, S-300, and a host of less capable clones. It is surrounded by airbases and fairly modern AD radars. It also covers a rather large area. It would take a significant cruise missile attack to wipe it out. The Kh-55 inventory of the VVS is several decades old, most probably aren't even serviceable. This is reflected in the force reduction of nuclear bombers to 80. If this battle takes place 10 years from now, that capabilty will be practically none existant.

any war that goes nuclear whithin these two adversaries will result in both their destruction moreso for china as russain missiles launched from siberia will fly to Shanghai/Beijing far faster than any chinese missile can get to st.Petersburg/Moscow due to the difference in flying distance involved this will lead to conversley lower warning times for the chinese .

I doubt it would go nuclear since China only wants the Far East. The existance of an ABM shield would help reinforce that concept. Russians have always been the first to back down when threatened with nukes, ie Cuban MC and October War. PLA would bomb the Trans-Siberian RR and sweep most of the Russian forces in a matter of weeks. Pretty stupid to put most of your military bases right on the border. A counter attack would be impossible with PLA entrenched and the loss of Russia's best armour units. The Far East is just so vulnerable it makes a strategic planner laugh at the Russian oversight,

for example a Topol fired from Irkutsk will have to fly 1030 miles to Beijing at a velocity of roughly 3 miles/sec(the fastest man made missile ever) it should hit beijing in roughly around 6 minutes not enough time to prepare a interceptor strike or call for a general evacuation detaction of alaunch should take around a minute assuming all systems work perfectly now assuming the interceptor is fired it still has to deal with what in military circles has been known as one of the most advanced ICBM's ever with rumored mid-flight maneuvering capability and as many as 5 dummy warheads+one real one the Topol has for years given American missile defence planners nightmares. My analysis says two Topols launched at the same time will make even the Yanks fail as for the chinese they ain't got a hope in the world if this monster comes for them.

Russians are only building 6-8 new ICBMs a year. Topols only account for 65 missiles. RS-20s account for the vast majority of the 400 ICBMs and most of those are well past there service life. A life extension programme is in the works but it is too little too late if China decides to advance.

And this is just the beginning this vaunted shield has no hope against a SLBM launched at shanghai from a Golf at safe station in the Pacific.An SS-N-23 would cover a 1000mile distance (from a safe station in the pacific to shanghai) in just over 4 minutes no hope for any missile defence there as well.and by the way i forgot to mention this the SS-N-23 can carry upto 10 independent warheads(MIRV'S) each against such an onslaught the launchers will empty before the bombs fall.

Launched from a Golf? Russia decommissioned those boomers decades ago. Sineva is a good missile but the Navy only has a handful of operational Deltas. As is the RS-20, the RS-29 is also at the end of its life. They are currently modernising Delta IVs and giving the Sineva a life extension, but again that is too little too late if China advances. Half of the boomers are sitting in their piers in Vladivostok so a suprise attack on the naval base could wipe out most of the threat.

The chinese better not get overconfident and call for a bear hug cos as napoleon and hitler both discovered the bear can hug you hard.

If the only goal of China is to grab the Far East and a couple East Siberian oil fields, it wouldn't be too hard to do it conventionally with a suprise attack. Since Russia's space surviellance is degraded and targetted at USA, they will have a hard time being forwarned. Cutting off reinforcements is not difficult. Russian airbases are within reach of Chinese SRBMs and the army bases are within range of artillery. CCP would be twitching its thumbs over nuclear retaliation, but it would be survivable with the number of failed launches on expired missiles that would take place coupled with an ABM capability and beefed up air defence.

 

[Minghegy]

chines are scared of A3, this test will give them some comfort.

Oh my god, you have known this...
you are erudite

 

[bengalraider]

Peking is surrounded by TOR-M1s, S-300, and a host of less capable clones. It is surrounded by airbases and fairly modern AD radars. It also covers a rather large area. It would take a significant cruise missile attack to wipe it out. The Kh-55 inventory of the VVS is several decades old, most probably aren't even serviceable. This is reflected in the force reduction of nuclear bombers to 80. If this battle takes place 10 years from now, that capabilty will be practically none existant.

Agreed the KH 55 is on it's way out reason: the KH 101 is on it's way in

The most important new ALCM expected to enter service in the near future is the Kh-101, which is sometimes referred to in Russian press as "izdeliye 101." This 2,400kg cruise missile will reportedly carry a 400kg conventional high explosive penetrating warhead to a maximum range of 5,000-5,500km at a subsonic cruising speed of 190-200 m/s and at altitude of 30-6,000m. The missile will be equipped with an optronic guidance system and a TV camera for terminal guidance, ensuring a high degree of accuracy. It is likely the new ALCM will also use inertial and/or satellite guidance. The Kh-101 is also reported to feature low-observable characteristics, with a radar cross-section on the order of .01 square meters. Along with the Kh-101, the LRA is also to receive its nuclear variant, designated Kh-102. Both missiles are being developed by the Raduga Design Bureau, which also developed the Kh-55-series ALCMs.[45] The Tu-95MS will reportedly be able to carry eight Kh-101s externally (although some sources indicate these bombers will have their bomb bays widened to accomodate new missiles internally),[46] whereas the Tu-160 would be able to carry 12 internally. The first Kh-101 launches reportedly took place in October 1999, with additional launches being conducted during April 2000 exercises of the 37th Air Army.[45]

The second ALCM under development, designated Kh-555, is a conventional variant of the Kh-55SM currently in service. The first test launches of Kh-555s were variously reported to have taken place in January 2000 or October 1999.[47,48] A third ALCM currently under development is a medium range missile with provisional designations of "izdeliye 244" and Kh-SD, a subsonic, medium-range, conventional cruise missile incorporating a number of Kh-101's subcomponents, including the guidance system. It is being developed primarily for the Tu-22M5, an upgraded variant of the Tu-22M3, which will be capable of carrying four Kh-101 or six to eight Kh-SD missiles, or an unspecified number of new Kh-32 supersonic missiles. Additional weapons designed to enhance the conventional capabilities of Tu-22M variants include the Kh-32 supersonic missile, a successor to the Kh-22 [NATO designation AS-4 'Kitchen'] with extended range, improved ability to engage land targets, and the ability to perform anti-missile evasive maneuvers during the terminal phase of flight. The Kh-32 is to be deployed in nuclear and conventional configurations. Finally, Tu-22M-series bombers will also be adapted to carry a new variant of the KAB-1500 1.5 metric ton guided bomb.[20,39,49,50]

It is not yet known when the new missiles will enter service. The decision to complete the development and begin production of Kh-101 and Kh-555 appears to have been made in late 1999. [50] In November 2000 the Russian Air Force Commander Army General Anatoliy Kornukov announced in November 2000 that LRA would receive a new long-range ALCM in 2003.[51,52] Work on adapting Russian strategic bombers to carry the new weapons also began in late 1999, when the 360th Repair Plant in Kazan starting modifying a batch of 13 Tu-95MS bombers to carry the Kh-101 ALCM. The same plant is also participating in the upgrade program of Tu-22M3 bombers converting them to Tu-22M5s.[20] While the missiles are still years from entering service, the 37th Air Army is already preparing tactics and doctrine for their use. Accounts of the October 2000 exercises of the 22nd Heavy Bomber Division made numerous references to preparing to use new cruise missiles and confirmed that bomber crews participated in tests of a new missile type.[41]

Russia
images of the KH 101 on a Tu-95 below

I doubt it would go nuclear since China only wants the Far East. The existance of an ABM shield would help reinforce that concept. Russians have always been the first to back down when threatened with nukes, ie Cuban MC and October War. PLA would bomb the Trans-Siberian RR and sweep most of the Russian forces in a matter of weeks. Pretty stupid to put most of your military bases right on the border. A counter attack would be impossible with PLA entrenched and the loss of Russia's best armour units. The Far East is just so vulnerable it makes a strategic planner laugh at the Russian oversight,

The Siberian region is hardly vulnerable with over six tank divisions standing guard and three group headquarters.also note the massive airlift capability the Russians have ;they could fly 10 divisions there in a day or two.

Siberian [Siberian Military District]

The Siberian Military District lies in the center of Asiatic Russia, with its headquarters in Novosibirsk. Its ground forces are organized into one corps of four motorized rifle divisions and one artillery regiment.
The Transbaikal Military District is headquartered in Chita. The district comprises three combined arms armies totaling four tank divisions and six motorized rifle divisions. One tank division and one motorized rifle division are headquartered at district training centers that are believed to be directly subordinate to the district headquarters. One artillery division and two machine gun-artillery divisions deployed on the Chinese border also have district training-center status.
Far Eastern

The Far Eastern Military District, headquartered in Khabarovsk, includes four combined arms armies and one army corps. Among them, those units have three tank divisions and thirteen motorized rifle divisions, of which one tank division and two motorized rifle divisions have headquarters that serve as district training centers. One artillery division and five machine gun-artillery divisions are directly subordinate to the district headquarters.

Russians are only building 6-8 new ICBMs a year. Topols only account for 65 missiles. RS-20s account for the vast majority of the 400 ICBMs and most of those are well past there service life. A life extension programme is in the works but it is too little too late if China decides to advance.

So 65 Topols is not a threat? multiply that with 6 odd warheads each in the MIRV version and you have what 390 odd bombs,Is china willing to risk even one?

Launched from a Golf? Russia decommissioned those boomers decades ago. Sineva is a good missile but the Navy only has a handful of operational Deltas. As is the RS-20, the RS-29 is also at the end of its life. They are currently modernising Delta IVs and giving the Sineva a life extension, but again that is too little too late if China advances. Half of the boomers are sitting in their piers in Vladivostok so a suprise attack on the naval base could wipe out most of the threat.

The point being the other half is till on patrol and hence still a credible threat against which china has little or no Defence , note that each sineva also carries 10 MIRV's i.e 10 bombs.
You talk about a surprise attack how ?by air the very systems you have noted in the first para would make mince meat out of any airborne assault, by land they have the far eastern forces to fight through. By sea the Chinese would be shot out of the water by the SSN's guarding these boomers.

If the only goal of China is to grab the Far East and a couple East Siberian oil fields, it wouldn't be too hard to do it conventionally with a suprise attack. Since Russia's space surviellance is degraded and targetted at USA, they will have a hard time being forwarned. Cutting off reinforcements is not difficult. Russian airbases are within reach of Chinese SRBMs and the army bases are within range of artillery. CCP would be twitching its thumbs over nuclear retaliation, but it would be survivable with the number of failed launches on expired missiles that would take place coupled with an ABM capability and beefed up air defence.

AS far as russian space surveillance is concerned you may be right in assuming that the bulk of Russian space surveillance is directed at America
as of today the early warning assets are

As of January 2009, the space part of the Russian early-warning system includes five satellites that appear operational -- three on highly-elliptical orbits (HEO) and two on a geostationary orbit (GEO).

Satellites deployed on the highly-elliptical orbit--Cosmos-2422 (HEO, launched on 21 Jul 2006, NORAD catalog number 29260), Cosmos-2430 (HEO, 23 October 2007, 32268), and Cosmos-2446 (HEO, 2 December 2008, 33447) -- are most likely first-generation satellites of the 73D6 type that were built for the US-KS system (also known as Oko). This system was designed to detect launches of ballistic missiles from the U.S. territory and cannot detect missiles launched from sea or other regions. The geostationary Cosmos-2379 (GEO, 24 Aug 2001, 26892) and Cosmos-2440 (GEO, 27 Jun 2008, 33108) are newer satellite of the 71Kh6 type, which have the capability to detect missiles against Earth background. Satellites of this type were developed for the US-KMO system, which was supposed to provide global coverage. This system is not yet fully operational.

The HEO satellites, Cosmos-2422, Cosmos-2430, and Cosmos-2446 are in the position to observe launches from the U.S. territory for about 18 hours a day. Cosmos-2379 had been moved into the point of 12 degrees East on geostationary orbit in September 2007. Cosmos-2440 is deployed over the point of 80 degrees East, as it is normally the case with all new US-KMO satellites. This configuration does not allow the satellites to maintain 24-hour coverage of the U.S. territory, but may provide some coverage of SLBM launches from North Atlantic.

Early warning - Russian strategic nuclear forces

note that this does not include military recon satellites such as the Kobalt M and Don for which any data about in service systems is unobtainable(well unless you work for the Russian MoD)however what i have managed to get is a list of all spy satellites that have since returned to earth.i am posting only the launches since 1999 for the entire list follow the link.
Yantar-4K1

1999 August 18 - Cosmos 2365 - Launch Site: Plesetsk. Launch Complex: LC43/3. Launch Vehicle: Soyuz. Mass: 6,600 kg (14,500 lb). Perigee: 184 km (114 mi). Apogee: 338 km (210 mi). Inclination: 67.10 deg. Period: 89.73 min. Duration: 119.00 days.
High resolution photo reconnaissance; returned film in two small SpK capsules during the mission and with the main capsule at completion of the mission. Landed in Russia on December 15, 1999.
2001 May 29 - Cosmos 2377 - Launch Site: Plesetsk. Launch Complex: LC43/4. Launch Vehicle: Soyuz. Mass: 6,500 kg (14,300 lb). Perigee: 165 km (102 mi). Apogee: 358 km (222 mi). Inclination: 67.10 deg. Duration: 131.00 days.
The Kobalt-class imaging satellite landed on October 10, 2001 after a four month mission.
2002 February 25 - Cosmos 2387 - Launch Site: Plesetsk. Launch Complex: LC43/3. Launch Vehicle: Soyuz. Mass: 6,700 kg (14,700 lb). Perigee: 168 km (104 mi). Apogee: 297 km (184 mi). Inclination: 67.10 deg. Period: 89.20 min. Duration: 122.00 days.
The optical reconnaissance satellite carried two small film capsules and a large reentry module. The main recoverable section of Cosmos 2387 landed at about 0230 UTC on June 27.
2004 September 24 - Cosmos 2410 - Launch Site: Plesetsk. Launch Complex: LC16/2. Launch Vehicle: Soyuz. Mass: 6,700 kg (14,700 lb). Perigee: 208 km (129 mi). Apogee: 348 km (216 mi). Inclination: 67.10 deg. Period: 90.10 min. Duration: 107.00 days.
Film-return reconnaisance satellite. Maneuvered on October 1 to a 213 x 330 km orbit. Believed to be an improved Yantar-4K1 with a longer lifetime - and given the code name 'Kobalt' previously applied to the defunct Yantar-4K2 system. When re-entry was commanded after only 107 days in orbit, there was speculation that problems had arisen with the satellite. Sources claimed the satellite had some kind of control problem, which was brought under control, and the two smaller film return capsules were successfully returned. But when the control problem reoccurred, it was decided to bring the main re-entry capsule down early. At retrofire, two objects were tracked as having separated from the spacecraft. Russian search teams were unable to locate the capsule after re-entry. Further launches of the satellite were put on hold until a State Commission could determine the causes of the failure.
2006 May 3 - Cosmos 2420 - Launch Site: Plesetsk. Launch Complex: LC16/2. Launch Vehicle: Soyuz. Mass: 6,700 kg (14,700 lb). Perigee: 178 km (110 mi). Apogee: 349 km (216 mi). Inclination: 67.10 deg. Period: 89.80 min.
Imaging reconnaissance satellite, probably the second Kobalt-M satellite, built by the Arsenal factory. The satellite carried small film recovery capsules and one large reentry vehicle, recovered at the end of the mission with the camera and more film.
2007 June 7 - Cosmos 2427 - Launch Site: Plesetsk. Launch Complex: -. Launch Vehicle: Soyuz. Mass: 6,700 kg (14,700 lb). Perigee: 167 km (103 mi). Apogee: 339 km (210 mi). Inclination: 67.10 deg. Period: 89.80 min. Duration: 76.13 days.
Recoverable capsule military optical reconnaisance satellite. Orbit was raised on 11 June to 182 km x 354 km; decayed until 19 June, when it was lowered to 175 km x 325 km. On 28 June the orbit was raised to 183 km x 348 km; on 5 July to 169 km x 375 km. Landed at 21:00 GMT on 22 August after a 76-day mission.

i.e at least one launch every 2 yrs and these are the short-time mission types wonder what they have up there now.
Conversely most Chinese border bases are well within reach of Russian SRBM's and artillery as well, also the defender will have the advantage of the terrain(Siberia is a pretty harsh place to live). I think the mandarins at Zhongnanhai know very well the depth of problems they will face in case of an all-out assault . I think they would rather try to take Siberia over by simple change in demography. anyhow too much off topic talk here we can carry this along later.

 

[sayareakd]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...nology-to-shoot-down-missiles-in-mid-air.html

Yang Chengjun, a senior Chinese military strategist for missile studies, told China's state-run Global Times newspaper that the test ushered China into a "new phase" in terms of missile interception technologies.
"Compared with a previous test of anti-satellite technologies, the missile interception system is more advanced as the targets are moving objects and the satellite was flying within a preplanned orbit," Mr Yang said.

and we are doing later for many years and china has did the same only now.

 

[Armand2REP]

Agreed the KH 55 is on it's way out reason: the KH 101 is on it's way in

That was 1995, it hasn't gone anywhere. Kh-101 was non-nuclear anyway. They replaced that programme with Kh-55M.

The Siberian region is hardly vulnerable with over six tank divisions standing guard and three group headquarters.also note the massive airlift capability the Russians have ;they could fly 10 divisions there in a day or two.

You're forgetting the military reforms and troop reduction. There are only 39 combat brigades and 21 artillery brigades in the entire country and most of them are in Europe. There is no such thing as a tank division anymore, tanks have been reduced to 2,000 and put into combined brigades. There are 3 PLA Field Armies directly across the border outnumbering the entire Russian Army, not to mention 7 reserve divisions.

So 65 Topols is not a threat? multiply that with 6 odd warheads each in the MIRV version and you have what 390 odd bombs,Is china willing to risk even one?

Weren't you saying they are filled with 5 decoys and 1 actual warhead? That only equals 65 bombs. What CCP is willing to risk depends on their political situation.

The point being the other half is till on patrol and hence still a credible threat against which china has little or no Defence , note that each sineva also carries 10 MIRV's i.e 10 bombs.

Russian boomers are rarely ever on patrol. An attack on Vladivostok will wipe most of them out. The old RS-29s, which are most of them, carry 4 warheads.

You talk about a surprise attack how ?by air the very systems you have noted in the first para would make mince meat out of any airborne assault, by land they have the far eastern forces to fight through. By sea the Chinese would be shot out of the water by the SSN's guarding these boomers.

No airbourne assualt is needed, the sheer lack of depth in the Far Eastern defence prevents that as a necessity. China can just attrite them by sheer numbers. By sea they will find the SSNs stuck in port generating power off their reactors to run the naval base since they can't afford their electric bill. The only real threat would be the Varyag CG but that can be attrited too, PLAN has the numbers.

AS far as russian space surveillance is concerned you may be right in assuming that the bulk of Russian space surveillance is directed at America
as of today the early warning assets are

Early warning - Russian strategic nuclear forces

note that this does not include military recon satellites such as the Kobalt M and Don for which any data about in service systems is unobtainable(well unless you work for the Russian MoD)however what i have managed to get is a list of all spy satellites that have since returned to earth.i am posting only the launches since 1999 for the entire list follow the link.
Yantar-4K1[/url

Kobalt M and Don are canister droppers, worthless for real time intel.

i.e at least one launch every 2 yrs and these are the short-time mission types wonder what they have up there now.

Doesn't matter how many canister droppers they have up, they ony have 8 rolls of film.

Conversely most Chinese border bases are well within reach of Russian SRBM's and artillery as well,

If China moves off their base to attack, what difference does it make if they hit the base? Mobile command posts don't make for a good Tochka-U target.

also the defender will have the advantage of the terrain(Siberia is a pretty harsh place to live). I think the mandarins at Zhongnanhai know very well the depth of problems they will face in case of an all-out assault .

They won't care about Western Siberia, just that close to their border with all the untapped oil. Wipe out the Far East and entrench in Eastern Siberia would be their goal. , not going too far from their supply lines is the only way to sustain it since logistics are so poor. Russia has made that easy for them by not backing up their defences.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

If Chinese tried to do what was mentioned above Russians could just turn of the oil going to them in their pipeline deal that would cripple the Chinese economy, no matter how easy it may seem for the Chinese the Russians still have the upperhand. Most of the weapons sold to China are of Russian origin and Russia still has 5-7,000 tactical nukes which they would not hesitate to use.

 

[no smoking]

Alors, Russians. A Chinese missile shield would be a far bigger threat than a European one. If they ever get a working capability they may become emboldened enough to take on the Bear.

One of funy thing about our indian friends is that they can always create kind of fantansy to entertain themselves.

Attacking russia who has more than 10000 missile in hands? No, thank you. We are not such stupid as you.