Russia will not win in a sanctions game with the West. Putin is banking on the gambit that European powers will continue to be fragmented on tougher sanctions. But MH17 changed that. Right now EU is preparing for a sweeping arms sanctions against Russia with France and Britain unwilling to give up what they already signed with Moscow. But German Der Spiegel has made it clear who will be the loser should Putin continue to dare the Europeans:
Do you actually believe that? It is not so one-sided. Sanctions will hurt both sides. Right now, they are sanctioning people and some businesses. A blanket ban on entire industries will be real bad for everybody.
If there is a complete blanket ban on Russia, then Europe is going to have to look for more expensive suppliers. This will work in India's favor also since we are currently negotiating a 30+ year oil and gas contract with them.
As far as the military is concerned, the economic and tech sanctions will not affect the military programs.
More than 35% of German oil and gas supplies are dependent on Russian fields. If India couldn't find suppliers for just 7% of our needs when Iran was sanctioned, where do you think Germany will get that kind of supplies from? Everybody is walking on thin ice.
Just how important is Russian gas for Europe? | Business | DW.DE | 17.04.2014
The most important energy supplier is Russia: It provides 38 percent of Germany's natural gas imports, 35 percent of all oil imports and 25 percent of coal imports, covering a quarter of the country's entire energy needs. There are no suitable alternatives in sight that could cover shortfalls of this magnitude.
Another reason there is no alternative to gas imports is that the German government decided to stop coal production in 2018.
But Germany's dependence on Russian energy is due not only to imports, but also to the relations between energy companies.
Gazprom and Wintershall also jointly own the 2,300-kilometer German pipeline network "Gascade." But Russia now controls Germany's gas storage - and with it, the safety margin of the German gas supply. The German economics ministry evidently has no worries about the deal.
And Germany is currently the best performing European economy and the only one with the kind of money required to bail out the EU. Now, if the Germany economy tanks, what makes you think Russia will be the only one hurt?
The Norwegians are the next biggest suppliers followed by Algeria and Nigeria. There's no way US can supply gas to Europe so quickly and in such large quantities.
OTOH, there's China.
Gas Deal:
BBC News - China and Russia sign 30-year gas deal
There have been no details about the cost of the deal but it has been unofficially valued at more than $400bn.
Oil Deal:
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...270-billion-oil-deal/articleshow/20704259.cms
Russian oil giant Rosneft and Chinese state firm CNPC signed on Friday a $270 billion deal to supply China with oil over 25 years as Russian President Vladimir Putin pushes to diversify the country's energy customer base away from Europe.
Until these deals are implemented, Russia's largest non-EU importer is Ukraine, which is paltry compared to the size of the Chinese deals.
And then there's this.
Modi, Putin to discuss $40 billion India-Russia gas pipeline
[/quote]The hydrocarbons pipeline is likely to have a minimum price tag of $40 billion and would take four to five years for completion after the necessary modalities are completed, which itself is likely to take a considerable time.[/quote]
The pipeline alone costs nearly $40 Billion, so how much do you think the actual deal will cost? Could be similar to China's $400 Billion, maybe more. And I believe they are investing $20-25 Billion on the pipeline.
So, Russia is in a much better position with very long term plans going up to 2050. Germany doesn't even have a proper short term plan for the same. Italy is also in the same position as Germany. Only France escapes this due to their dependence on nuclear power.