Tension mounts on Bangladesh-Myanmar border

[LETHALFORCE]

Burma stations three warships along Bangladesh border

Burma stations three warships along Bangladesh border
by Mizzima News
Wednesday, 21 October 2009 18:07

Dhaka (Mizzima) – The Burmese military has brought in three warships at its border town of Maungdaw, amidst reports of escalating tension between Bangladesh and Burma over their long-standing maritime dispute.

The medium and small sized warships have been stationed since October 19, on the Sai Tin River, east of Maungdaw town and about 20 miles southeast of the Bangladesh-Burma border, a local resident as well as sources of the military based on the border said.

The warships number 110, 308 and 552 of the Sittwe and Danyawaddy Navy Bases have come from Sittwe through the Mayu River and have finally been positioned on the Sai Tin River near Maungdaw town.

Local eyewitnesses said, the ships had artillery in the front and rear and had a crew of about 60 each.

However, sources said, three warships that were earlier positioned near the disputed maritime zones have returned and are now being stationed between Sittwe and Yathethaung.

Since the beginning of October, both Burma and Bangladesh have reinforced military and navy forces along the land border and maritime borders. But, neither country had officially announced the reason for the increased security.

(Mizzima) – The Burmese junta has started to permit the use of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) mobile phones in its new jungle capital of Napyitaw in central Burma, a mobile user in Naypyitaw said.

Since the shift of the capital from Rangoon to Naypyitaw on November 6, 2005, the regime had banned the use of public phones, including mobile phones, in a bid to check flow of information relating to the new capital.

The CDMA mobile phones have been permitted since Sunday, the mobile user said.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

US Seeks India's Help on Burma

US Seeks India's Help on Burma

When the Indian Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, visited Washington this week to discuss bilateral issues with his US counterparts, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and other Bush Administration officials used the opportunity to seek India’s help in resolving the Burma issue.

Mukherjee was in Washington for a two-day visit to the US—his first in the capacity of India’s foreign minister—to discuss issues related to Indo-US relations, in particular the ongoing deadlock over the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement between the two countries.

The agreement, when signed into law, would give India access to US nuclear technology for civilian purposes, but India is not able to finalize the agreement because of opposition within its multi-party coalition government led by Prime Minister Manhmohan Singh.

While little progress was made on this issue, Bush Administration officials during their meetings with Mukherjee tried to impress upon him the need for India to use its influence with the Burmese military government to push it to respect the basic standards of the international community.

“We have had an opportunity to talk about the deepening of our economic ties, of our defense cooperation, and the deepening of our dialogue about regional issues. We had, for instance, a discussion this morning concerning Tibet and the troubling circumstances there, as well as on Burma,” Rice told reporters soon after her meeting with Mukherjee at the State Department on Monday.

The Indian foreign minister, on his part, explained India’s position and the steps it has taken with respect to Burma. Besides Rice, Mukherjee also met US President George W Bush and National Security Adviser Steve Hadley.

“During our course of discussion, the Myanmar [Burma] issue came up and so far as Myanmar is concerned, we have explained our position, what we have done to persuade the Myanmar authorities to extend cooperation to special envoy Gambari and what steps they have initiated to carry on political reforms and the national reconciliation process in that country,” Mukherjee told reporters at the end of his US trip.

Referring to the steps taken by Burma, Mukherjee noted the junta has appointed a special representative to carry on a dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi.

“It is our persistent suggestion to the Myanmar authorities to please ensure that all important stakeholders, including Aung San Suu Kyi, are fully involved in the process of political reforms and national reconciliation,” he said.

“At the same time, we are suggesting them to maintain peace and tranquility among the large number of ethnic entities who are in Myanmar,” Mukherjee said.

“Therefore, this is one area where we are in touch with Myanmar authorities and when the Myanmar foreign minister visited India, I had detailed discussions with him. Gambari also discussed with us; we are in touch with others, and we shared this information with the authorities with whom we had discussions here,” he said.

When asked about India’s supplying military arms to the junta, which are used by the authorities against its own people, Mukherjee said: “So far as our arms supplies to Myanmar are concerned, we do not supply any arms. India is not a very major arms supplier to any other country.”

 

[leonblack08]

Its looking like the diplomatic efforts are failing.Its better for Bangladesh to avoid war.But the Burmese seems not to give us any other option.

 

[leonblack08]

A fine article regarding Burmese military buildup after 1991 stand off with Bangladesh.

Dealing with neighbour Myanmar

Abu Rushd



For a small country the best neighbor is a rich country with a small army. The most dangerous enemy is a poor country with a big army' - recent crisis of Bangladesh with Myanmar could be a right apprehension of Prof. G.B. Khanal's above statement made in one of his articles published in Newsweek during September 1989. It may be mentioned that being one of the least developed countries and governed by the military junta for a long time Myanmar is maintaining the 9th largest army of the world.

With a rich natural resource base, Myanmar is a country with considerable potential. However, more than five decades of political and armed conflict, combined with forced isolation and unsuccessful economic policies have significantly eroded socio -economic conditions in the country and led to its designation in 1987 as a "least developed country." Myanmar lags far behind its neighbors and ASEAN in economic and social development, with a Human Development Index (HDI) ranking of 129 out of 177 which went down to the ranking of 132 further by 2007. In 2004 Myanmar ranked 106 on the Gender - related Development Index (GDI) out of 146.

Myanmar is a country of 657,550 sq kms where total population is 48,379,000 as of 2006. GNI per capita during 2006 was 220 US$, life expectancy at birth is 61 and infant mortality rate (under 1) is 74. Central government expenditure from 1995-2005 allocated to health is 5%, to education is 15% and for defense is 22% (it was 19% in 2005) and the GDP - real growth rate is 3.8% (2007 est.). Reserve of foreign exchange and gold is only 2.262 billion US$ (2007 est.). Per capita (GDP nominal) is only 233 US $. By any standard Myanmar is one of the poorest nations in southeastern Asia, suffering from decades of stagnation, mismanagement and isolation. From 1962 onwards Myanmar has been ruled my military junta. Democratic rule ended in that country in 1962 when General Ne Win led a military coup d'etat. He ruled for nearly 26 years and pursued policies under the rubric of the Burmese Way to Socialism. In 1988, unrest over economic mismanagement and political oppression by the government led to widespread pro - democracy demonstrations throughout the country. Security forces killed thousands of demonstrators and general Saw Maung staged a coup d'etat and formed the State Law and Order Restoration Council - SLORC. Actually after 1962 Myanmar never had any taste of democracy till today.

Though in terms of governance and any related Human Development Index Myanmar is certainly a big country embedded with sheer poverty but with a huge military set up. A repressive military junta at the helm of the affairs along with a poor economic track record made this country more aggressive in outlook. Border clashes with Thailand and Bangladesh may supplement this arrogant nature.

When in 1991 Myanmar attacked and ransacked bordering Rejupara BOP, Bangladesh was put on a high military alert. Both the countries reached in a boiling point, nothing short of war hysteria. World powers might have wanted to have a limited war between a military ruled Myanmar and a newly reborn democratic country - Bangladesh. And so much of ground works were meticulously done. War clouds were visible everywhere. But thank God, sense of sanity prevailed; a major regional clash was somehow averted by the then newly elected BD government. Though during that fateful period a portion of the government quarter miscalculated about Myanmar's military strength and voiced for limited scale retaliation. It's true that in the late eighties Myanmar didn't have that a powerful military teeth to contain Bangladesh in an armed conflict. According to the data of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Myanmar at that time had a total (army, navy, air force) of 186,000 personnel in the armed forces. Army was then divided into 8 regional commands which had less then two regiments of tanks. Navy had only 36 warships of different kinds of which maximum were of WWII vintage. Air Force could master only 20 obsolete aircrafts with no armed helicopter. On the contrary Bangladesh had a well trained 131,000 strong armed forces of which many of them were battle proven whether in 1971 war or in CHT. Armaments of Bangladesh were also relatively better and of modern nature. But once the war cloud evaporated Bangladesh failed to take any lesson from that incident where Myanmar junta analyzed every aspect and rapidly took necessary steps to fill the gap. From 1991 onward Myanmar didn't keep any stone unturned not only to increase its armed manpower but also acquired a huge number of relatively modern equipments.

Actually after the end of the Cold World , the trend in military strategy and national security agenda has been changed all over the world from high politics which emphasized issues of war, nuclear deterrence to low politics which emphasized the environment, economic development and natural resources. Despite of this global trend, the Myanmar regime increased military spending for land warfare, sea power and air power while other countries around her were trying to reduce. By any standard the defense sector of Myanmar has increased since 1990. This trend can easily indicate that the rise of military power in Myanmar can be assumed as a threat to its neighbor countries. Another IISS data shows that from 1987 to 2002 Thailand reduced its armed forces from 756,000 to 306,000. Another neighbor Laos reduced it from 55,000 to 29,000 and even in India number of military personnel was reduced from 1,462,000 - 1,298,000. But only Myanmar increased its strength from 186,000 to 444,000!

The above figures clearly show that only Myanmar has increased military power and arms racing compared to its neighboring countries. Nevertheless, increasing the military power also means increasing the military spending. In 1987 Myanmar spent 252.56 million US$ for defense which was increased to 555 million US$ by 2002. But in the other fields Myanmar remains as a backbencher till now. All the societal factors show how poorly this country is equipped to manage her other burning problems. Here comes the warning of Prof. Khanal. And Myanmar Junta obviously has forgotten that, 'Security means development. Security is not military hardware, though it may include it, security is not military force, though it may involve it, security is not traditional military activity, though it may encompass it. Security is development and without development there can be no security.'

In pen and paper US government has imposed a ban on armament export to Myanmar regime. To them short of a democratic system can't be accepted or expected! But in reality Myanmar is one of the big arms importer from the very friendly countries of USA. Even some sophisticated US armaments are also in their inventory! Already Israeli 5.56 mm MA- 1/MA-2/MA-3/MA-4/MA-11/MA-12 rifles are inducted as the standard small arms of Myanmar Army. M-845, P-155 mm and Soltam 155 mm Howitzers are in the service with Myanmar Artillery.

Some other sophisticated electronic equipment for Air Force is also bought from Israel. Israeli engineers we-re engaged to refurbish Chinese origin F-7s and these fighter aircrafts were to get Elta EL/M - 2032 air to air radar, Rafael Python Mk. III and Litening laser - designator pods. It is well assumed that without the blessing of USA Myanmar can't procure Israeli armaments. Recent reports indicate that they have even acquired UAVs ( Unmanned Air Vehicles) from Israel. Simultaneously they are procuring armaments and equipment both from Chinese and western sources like Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Switzerland and France. Many a times they imported western arms through Singapore. All other relevant data show how Myanmar Armed Forces are building their might through a well organized and calculated manner. Their effort in this regard must be saluted so far nationalism is concerned.

However we agree on this point that Myanmar is a close ally of China who is also our strategic partner and main source of arms. Not only the military of Myanmar but its government is having deep ties with China. Concerning Bay of Bengal and Malacca strait the very location of Myanmar has become strategically important for the world and regional powers. In the South of Bay of Bengal India has been maintaining a strong Naval - Air Base for a long time at Andaman- Nicobar Islands. Americans too are now a days trying to influence whole of Indian Ocean area utilizing these Indian bases. In other way these two islands are located just at the gateway to Malacca Strait. Considering this strategic scenario China certainly wants to get a privileged presence in the Bay of Bengal and towards Strait of Malacca. And Myanmar somehow fulfills her (China's) interest which of course nothing harmful for Bangladesh, rather this move can be termed as a positive factor which is related to strategic deterrent. At present Myanmar have established strong Naval and Air Force installations at their two islands namely Haingi and Coco. Chinese presence is also noted there substantially. To curb Indian-US nexus Myanmar- Chinese collaboration is no way detrimental to our national security.

Now question comes- is Myanmar our enemy? No - not at all. Both Bangladesh and Myanmar are close friends of China and thus these two neighborly countries do share common strategic overview. It is to be our own interest to look towards east more and more and consider Myanmar as our ally not as foe. There may be behind the door instigation from some world power to initiate hostility towards Myanmar where Bangladesh will be used as a launching base for proxy war on their behalf. We should think thousand times whether we will allow some body to involve us against any form of clashes with our eastern neighbor thus loosing long lasting friendship of China as well? It's a trap, no doubt in that.

Our national interest would be to maintain a good relation with Myanmar, may it be a military ruled country or disliked by some western stalwarts. We can't afford to alienate another neighbor when facing too many loggerheads with the other mighty one. But this doesn't necessarily mean that we should not maintain a minimum deterrent with Myanmar.

Rather all available data indicate that we are gradually becoming weaker than Myanmar day by day. We pray and hope our government will consider minimum possible need of our Armed Forces and allocate requisite budget which is so far very meager in respect of our adversaries.

In Early November Bangladesh had to deploy warships and land forces along its border with Myanmar in retaliation to an encroachment on its maritime zone. Actually Myan-mar's bid to explore oil and gas in a disputed area in the Bay of Bengal created the first major naval deployment in the bay over offshore oil and gas rights since 1972.

Bangladesh claims that exploration activities and placing a rig is not legitimate as it clearly impinged on its right to the Exclusive Economic Zone- EEZ and the continental shelf, as accorded by the United Nations Law of the Sea - UNCLOS. In this respect Bangladesh has yet to complete the delimitation of its maritime boundary. On the other hand Myanmar emphasized on equidistant principle. Basing on this, early in November South Korean company Daewoo which was detailed by the Myanmar government was given go ahead signal to place a rig in the disputed area. This move eventually led to a tension between two neighbors. Once Bangladesh Naval ships were dispatched, Myanmar took no time to send her warships in response. They also maneuvered Infantry and Artillery regiments along the border. Unmanned Air Vehicles were flown over the Bangladeshi ships and land border areas bringing the situation to a boiling point. Despite Bangladesh's multi - pronged diplomatic efforts involving China and S. Korea, Myanmar showed little interest to come to a negotiating term in the discussion table. And stand off remains unresolved. Even Myanmar junta dismissed Bangladesh's claims on the oil rich area as 'un acceptable' and vowed to continue exploration by any means. Though after hectic diplomatic move, S. Korean company agreed to move its rig and Bangladesh called back its naval ships, but deadlock remains. Bangladesh's efforts to solve the problem amicably failed to persuade the Myanmar authority to come to a negotiating term. Even bilateral talks first in Myanmar's new capital, Naypyidaw and then in Dhaka produced no positive results. Rather controversy triggered both the countries to deploy troops along the border near Myanmar's Rakhain state.

Whosoever may be the defaulter, Bangladesh can't escape responsibilities as Bangladesh failed to do the necessary survey and accumulate relevant data to complete the delimitation of its maritime boundary. Under UNCLOS, Bangladesh has to submit all the concerned reports/data for demarcation of maritime zone to UN by 2011. Whereas India and Myanmar complete the demarcation process by 2009.

In the meantime littoral neighbors of Bangladesh, India and Myanmar found significant amounts of hydrocarbons in 2005-2006 and demarcated their respective offshore gas fields as per the "equidistant" principle. In some areas, these demarcations overlap Bangladesh's share of the bay's gas fields.

In this respect Bangladesh has been claiming that both Myanmar and India had encroached 18,000 and 19,000 sq km, respectively, into Bangladesh's territorial waters. So, Myanmar is not the only claimant but India is also an actor in the Bay of Bengal of which Bangladesh is not willing to take any precautionary measures.

Understandably, the resource- rich Bay of Bengal has re-emerged as a theater of conflict, as littoral countries are increasingly engaged in harvesting hydrocarbons unilaterally: This is bound to trigger tension. Myanmar leased the present zone of contention, Block No AD-7, to South Korea's Daewoo International Corp in 2005. The company started explorations in the area in September but South Korea reportedly called it back following Bangladesh's protest.

Certainly Myanmar's recent overtures heightened tension in the region. But neither Myanmar nor Bangladesh can afford to go on a military solution both being close ally of China. It will not benefit any of them rather sour relations will encourage to draw some other's interference which will inevitably make the Bay of Bengal and surrounding areas more vulnerable. This tension again proved how scanty our defense preparedness is and how reluctant our administration and government machinery are to look after our national interest.



[Abu Rushd is the Editor, Bangladesh Defence Journal]

The New Nation - Internet Edition

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Burma, Bangladesh Border Build-Up / ISN

Burma, Bangladesh Border Build-Up

Bangladesh announced on 8 October that it would ask the UN to resolve a regional maritime wrangle, which involves India, Burma and Bangladesh. Four days later, what Bangladeshi army spokespersons called "a massive military build-up," took place on the Burmese side of the land border, and on the same day, the Burmese navy based in Arakan State stationed five warships close to the disputed area. A day later, the Chittagong-based Bangladeshi navy sent four warships to the disputed area in response.

Burma's military junta had earlier protested against Bangladesh’s exploration of oil and gas in the disputed maritime zone, and warned against oil companies going ahead based on exploration rights granted by Dhaka.

Foley Hoag, the law firm taking the arbitration case on behalf of Bangladesh, spoke of intimidation of oil companies granted concessions by Dhaka, by Burmese naval vessels operating in the Bay of Bengal, the site of the disputed maritime zones.

However, a spokesperson for Tullow Oil – one of the oil companies mentioned in a press release by Foley Hoag – told ISN Security Watch that the company "no longer has any operations in the maritime area adjacent to Burma," but added that a UK-based oil and gas multinational had recently been granted a new offshore block adjacent to India. The Bay is believed to contain huge undersea oil and gas reserves.

This is not the first time both countries have rattled sabers over natural resources in the Bay of Bengal. Naval vessels confronted each other one year ago after Bangladesh found South Korea’s Daewoo drilling on behalf of Burma in a disputed area.

Complex cases

A legal resolution of the various claims will likely take some time, which will hardly quell simmering tensions as countries go ahead with controversial oil and gas exploration projects.

Sam Bateman is co-author of Good Order at Sea in Southeast Asia, a report on maritime policy and security. He told ISN Security Watch that the Bay's changing geography contributes to making an already complex set of cases, which takes in the various bodies and entitlements relevant to international maritime law, even more difficult to assess going forward.

To illustrate some of this, Bateman said, “Bangladesh is what is referred to as a ‘zone-locked’ state, i.e. it is locked in by the Exclusive Economic Zones of India and Burma.”

The EEZ is the area extending to 200 nautical miles from the country's coast. Within this area, the coastal nation has sole exploitation rights over all natural resources, and the region includes the 12-mile territorial sea zone directly off the coast.

Looking at a maritime map helps give an idea of the layout, but, as Bateman continued, “Bangladesh's maritime boundaries with Burma and India will at some stage reach a tripoint where its lines of equidistance with these two countries intersect. This means that at some point, trilateral agreement with India is required before a complete set of boundaries can be agreed between Burma and Bangladesh.”

Misperceptions of stability

Border clashes recur sporadically between Burma and Bangaldesh, but have not degenerated into war. Bangladesh Foreign Minister Dipu Moni and Burmese Foreign Minister Nyan Win met on 15 October in Colombo, and according to a Bangladesh Foreign Ministry press statement, discussed a wide range of bilateral issues.

The statement spoke of the need to address the potential for “misperceptions” on each side, and added that “regarding recent media reporting on troop movements along the Bangladesh-Myanmar border, the Myanmar foreign minister stated that no such event has taken place.” The statement described movements on the border as a routine exercise, contradicting accounts given by Bangladeshi army spokespersons based in the border regions.

The 15 October meeting is unlikely to resolve all the issues.

K Mrat Kyaw. editor of the Narinjara, a news publication run by Burmese exiles from Arakan, now in Bangladesh, told ISN Security Watch that the outcome of the recent bilateral talks “is not a long-term solution of border disputes between two neighbors, which involves the maritime issue, and the issue of Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh.”

In a related development, Bangladesh continues to send unregistered Rohingya refugees back into Arakan in Burma, saying that they are a social and economic burden. This is in response to Burma constructing a border fence along the frontier, perhaps the junta’s attempt to prevent hundreds of thousands of Rohingya from returning to Burma, where they are denied citizenship.

Opportunity to manoeuvre

Bangladesh is filing a separate case with India, which it claims is denying it any access to the continental shelf, which lies beyond the EEZ. While neither Burma nor India have responded to the arbitration procedure, there is no sign that India and Bangladesh could clash militarily.

However, bilateral relations are not smooth, with India perceiving Bangladesh as providing sanctuary for some of the many militant groups operating in northern India.

M Shamsur Rabb Khan argued in an article published by The Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), a think-tank closely linked to India's armed forces, that “Bangladesh does not accept that any militant camps are functioning in its territory. But the fact remains that some 172 training camps have been operating in Bangladesh for a long time.”

India is competing with China and others for economic opportunities in Burma, which remains under western sanctions. Anti-government militias operate from Burma as well as Bangladesh, the apparent reason behind a visit last week to Burma by Indian Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor.

India may want to explore opportunities to see how it could support Burma in its dispute with Bangladesh, not least as sources in the Bangladesh governments said that Bangladesh was negotiating with China, which has been Burma's main diplomatic ally, to resolve the dispute with Burma – though how this relates to the arbitration process is not clear.

China and Burma have been at odds of late, with Beijing issuing angry rebukes to the junta after fighting in northern Burma sent 37,000 ethnic Chinese refugees fleeing into China in late August. Those rebukes were reissued in the days following the US announcement that it was altering its Burma policy in response to the junta's wishes to talk to Washington and loosen its ties with Beijing somewhat.

On 19 October, a high-ranking Burmese general flew into southern China, the first official visit between the two countries since the fighting. Whatever way the Bay of Bengal dispute is resolved, it seems to be spurring some diplomatic manoeuvring between various interested parties.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Its looking like the diplomatic efforts are failing.Its better for Bangladesh to avoid war.But the Burmese seems not to give us any other option.

The Burmese are confident they can win, Bangladesh is using wrong diplomatic channels the dispute is between India, Burma and Bangladesh and nobody wants chinese devils as a mediator but Bangladesh running to China is the reason diplomacy has failed. Either way India and China will both lean towards Burma in any conflict since it will benefit both in terms of the natural resources that can be gained by backing Burma.

 

[K Factor]

India should try to sell some of our indigenous products like the down-graded Arjun or Akash to either of the two parties here. Chance to make a fast buck is presenting itself, we should try to grab it. Aggressive marketing is needed.

 

[StealthSniper]

India should try to sell some of our indigenous products like the down-graded Arjun or Akash to either of the two parties here. Chance to make a fast buck is presenting itself, we should try to grab it. Aggressive marketing is needed.

Not to mention it will be a chance to see our home made products in a real war. I think we should sell our weapons to anyone that's going to start a war soon.

 

[leonblack08]

India should try to sell some of our indigenous products like the down-graded Arjun or Akash to either of the two parties here. Chance to make a fast buck is presenting itself, we should try to grab it. Aggressive marketing is needed.

In that case India will be behind China.We already have some hardware from China due to be inducted within couple of years.And Burmese too will go for Chinese ones not Indian.

And Arjun,LOL,what will we do with such a heavy tank?India will have to give us a crane for every Arjun tank we buy..:tank:

Pakistan is also is in a good position to sell ammunition on short term,like they did with Sri Lanka.Here too they have an edge over India.Bangladesh does buy from them and Myanmar's personnel was reported to be trained in Pakistan for their 155mm howitzers.So Priority will go to Pakistan I think.

 

[leonblack08]

The Burmese are confident they can win, Bangladesh is using wrong diplomatic channels the dispute is between India, Burma and Bangladesh and nobody wants chinese devils as a mediator but Bangladesh running to China is the reason diplomacy has failed. Either way India and China will both lean towards Burma in any conflict since it will benefit both in terms of the natural resources that can be gained by backing Burma.

Yes they are well prepared.Read the article I posted,it clearly shows that from a poor position in 1991,Burmese have come up a long way in terms of defence.Its natural when you have the Govt. spending all its money on defence.
Not only Chinese tech,they have got their hands even into Israeli techs.So definitely a worry for us.

Now about India supporting Burma openly,now did you consider these points:

1.Burma is viewed as a Rogue state.They will be the aggressor if there is a war.And hence Bangladesh will have the sympathy and "blessing" of Western countries and UN.Now don't you think India will be on the wrong side of the track?

2.Do you really think that Burmese economy will allow it to continue a major war?It won't allow them to stay more than 2 months in war.Unless they want their people to die of starvation.
Besides,Its not as if they have absolute edge over our military,like US army.

3.Even if we fail in conventional war,we can swiftly change to guerilla warfare once they are in our territory.We do have the experience from 1971.And this time we have army commandos specialized in guerrilla war fare.Besides we have reserve trained Ansars,who can be dragged into the war.And not to forget,we can always raise a force like Mukti bahini in 1971.One thing we have plenty of,is people.

4.After the war is over,and Burmese forces are gone,Don't you think that India will find another sworn enemy on her Eastern side?As far as I know India hardly wants any chaos in NE India.

What do you think about it?

 

[Atul]

Dear Leon,

my comments on your reply are as below :

Yes they are well prepared.Read the article I posted,it clearly shows that from a poor position in 1991,Burmese have come up a long way in terms of defence. Its natural when you have the Govt. spending all its money on defence.
Not only Chinese tech,they have got their hands even into Israeli techs.So definitely a worry for us.

Now about India supporting Burma openly,now did you consider these points:

1.Burma is viewed as a Rogue state.They will be the aggressor if there is a war.And hence Bangladesh will have the sympathy and "blessing" of Western countries and UN.Now don't you think India will be on the wrong side of the track? (Though Burma is a Rogue State, it has one thing that probably Bangladesh does not - A military Dictator, a single ordering authority & which is not answerable to bureaucracy. The Burmese enjoy more military co-operation from china as compared to Bangladesh.

2.Do you really think that Burmese economy will allow it to continue a major war?It won't allow them to stay more than 2 months in war.Unless they want their people to die of starvation.
Besides,Its not as if they have absolute edge over our military,like US army. (This war is not in the best interest of Chinese, so they would by all means try & stop it. Secondly Burma & China share a common border & chinese have a direct road connecting them to the Bay of Bengal. So in eventualities they might support the Burmese.


3.Even if we fail in conventional war,we can swiftly change to guerilla warfare once they are in our territory.We do have the experience from 1971.And this time we have army commandos specialized in guerrilla war fare.Besides we have reserve trained Ansars,who can be dragged into the war.And not to forget,we can always raise a force like Mukti bahini in 1971.One thing we have plenty of,is people. (One most important thing one should not forget is some very important cities like - Coxs Bazar, Chittagong are close to the Burmese border. if they fell in a Conventional War, the impact will be huge on the Bangladeshi economy. Secondly 1971 was a different story altogether, it not only marked the Indian support but also a unrest about pakistan. Burma also possesses a guerrilla force which makes the tally equal.

4.After the war is over,and Burmese forces are gone,Don't you think that India will find another sworn enemy on her Eastern side?As far as I know India hardly wants any chaos in NE India.

What do you think about it?

(My Dear Friend India has nothing to fear from Bangladesh, any eventualities with Bangladesh & a Single Delhi Class Destroyer can take care of the entire bangladeshi fleet & Our Army is capable enough to repeat 1971, as for your MIG-29's the IAF has BVR equipped Jets SU-30MKI, so the chances of Migs gaining any hits is nullified.

I Personally feel, this war will serve no purpose & India will stay Neutral. (Till either Bangladesh or Burma want to have some misadventure)

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Bangladesh should not get to snug about having Chinese and Pakistan weapons, Burma has rocket launchers from N.Korea supplied thru China,and India has given the Burmese plenty of Howitzers and plenty of other items in the past India does not need to sell to Bangladesh, also Kapoor visited Burma to possibly provide logistics and satellite assistance it is things like this that will give Burma the victory.

India, Myanmar Set to Increase Military, Energy Co-operation | India Defence

India, Myanmar Set to Increase Military, Energy Co-operation

Increased contacts between senior military chiefs on both sides of the Burma-India border, involving Indian weapons sales, are believed by analysts to have two primary objectives: to help flush out Burma-based Indian insurgents and to counter growing Chinese influence in Naypyidaw.

But the sale of arms and related technical equipment is also likely to be linked to New Delhi’s “Look East” economic policy, including ambitions to buy huge quantities of Burma’s offshore gas in the Bay of Bengal. If the gas bid—against rivals China and Thailand—is successful, it will also involve building a costly pipeline through rebel-infested areas of northwest Burma and northeast India.

During a visit to Burma in November, India’s Air Marshal S P Tyagi offered a multimillion dollar sale of military hardware to Naypyidaw. The package includes helicopters, technical upgrades of Burma’s Russian and Chinese-made fighter planes, naval surveillance aircraft and radar manufactured by Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited, of New Delhi.

Military sources said the Burma junta has shown interest in acquiring Bangalore-based Hindustan Aeronautics Limited-made helicopters. The air marshal’s offer includes Indian-made advanced light helicopters useful for combating insurgent groups and for rapid response military movements.

The visit of Gen Shwe Mann, the junta’s joint chief of staff, in December was expected to expand the arms sales talks.

Prior to the air force chief’s visit, Indian army chief Gen J J Sing offered, during a visit he made to Burma, to provide training in counterinsurgency campaigns for Burmese special forces.

Earlier in 2006, Indian Navy chief admiral Arun Prakash also visited Burma to negotiate the sale of two British-made BN-2 Islander maritime surveillance aircraft. This was followed by the sale of an unspecified number of T-55 tanks and 105mm light artillery guns.

That deal was confirmed by the Indian Army deputy chief, Lt-Gen S Pattabhiraman, to the Indian magazine Force in September. “We have recommended and started giving them [the Burmese military] 105mm field guns,” said Pattabhirama, adding that India had provided a few 75mm howitzers to Burma in the past.

Since 1993, New Delhi has reversed its position on Burma’s military government.

The Indian states of Assam, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Arunachal Pradesh, bordering or close to remote and inaccessible regions of Burma, have been plagued by insurgencies for decades. But an attack on a military post in Assam last July by the United National Liberation Front, one of the oldest armed groups defying New Delhi, seems to have strengthened the Indian military’s resolve to deal with the rebels.

However, it is almost impossible for India to counter the insurgency along India’s northeastern border without effective military cooperation from Burma.

Last September, a Burmese delegation led by Deputy Minister for Home Affairs Brig-Gen Phone Swe, and Indian officials led by Home Secretary Vinod Kumar Duggal, held talks in New Delhi to consider ways of securing their troubled border. The Indian delegation reportedly submitted a list of 15 India-related insurgent bases they believe are operating inside Burma.

The Naypyidaw regime has pledged to root out any insurgents who are troubling neighbors and taking sanctuary on Burmese territory. However, the junta says poor access to border areas due to lack of roads has hindered action. The junta has therefore also sought road-building equipment and expertise from India.

China’s influence in Burma—economically and politically—is also viewed by analysts as a major reason for New Delhi’s attempt to develop closer ties with the Burmese regime. India is now Burma’s fourth largest trading partner—its investment reached US $35.08 million last year.

Now that India hopes to pipe natural gas from Burma through its unstable northeastern states, including Mizoram and Assam, New Delhi clearly feels the time has come to rid itself of insurgents and cozy up to the Burmese generals

 

[bengalraider]

In any prolonged Bangladesh-Burmese conflict India would have to get involved, on the side of Bangladesh reasons for this are outlined below

1- Much of the Indian populace identifies with Bangladesh as an ancestral homeland(eg-Ray sir), and as such would want India to help their brethren.

2- India hosts a large Bangladeshi immigrant population(illegal&legal); these people serve as vote banks for certain political interests that shall try to win them in further by supporting Bangladesh.

3-Many Muslims in India would see Bangladeshis as Muslim brothers and pressurize the govt to help them.

4- India might face a refugee crisis aka prior to 1971.The way to return these people to their homeland would be to drive invading Burmese out.

5- India has much closer cultural and economic links to Bangladesh than Burma(cross border trains).

6-Indians as a people identify with democracies more than dictatorships, and many indian intellectuals admire aung sang su kee in praticular.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Bengalraider all your points are valid, but the question arises will Bangladesh take India's help? The dispute has come close to the stage of becoming a conflict but Bangladesh still has not asked India for any assistance, I know India will help in anyway we can and would not want any bad to happen to Bangladesh but the dispute involves the waters of Bangladesh not a dispute over land. The Bangladeshis have deep resentment against Indians I would say almost on the same level as Pakistanis to ask for help even if they were going to lose the war. I am proud of the Bengali members of this forum to look past the religious differences of Bengalis and express genuine concern for the Bengalis across the border.

 

[bengalraider]

Bengalraider all your points are valid, but the question arises will Bangladesh take India's help? The dispute has come close to the stage of becoming a conflict but Bangladesh still has not asked India for any assistance, I know India will help in anyway we can and would not want any bad to happen to Bangladesh but the dispute involves the waters of Bangladesh not a dispute over land. The Bangladeshis have deep resentment against Indians I would say almost on the same level as Pakistanis to ask for help even if they were going to lose the war. I am proud of the Bengali members of this forum to look past the religious differences of Bengalis and express genuine concern for the Bengalis across the border.

I do not believe that in any prolonged military conflict bangladesh will have many other options other than asking india for aid. I agree there is alunatic islamist fringe in bangladesh(HUJI) that shall prefer pakistani help, but in the long term i believe poltitical sense dictates that bangladesh asks india for help.I do not beleive china shall act unequivocally on the side of either party.India is the sub-continental naval superpower and in case of a naval conflict the presence of an indian CBG on the bangladeshi side shall be a fait accompli for burma.

by the way for clarification:i have no links ancestral or otherwise to bangladesh, rather my roots lie in orissa.

 

[Eagle_Flights]

I do not believe that in any prolonged military conflict bangladesh will have many other options other than asking india for aid. I agree there is alunatic islamist fringe in bangladesh(HUJI) that shall prefer pakistani help, but in the long term i believe poltitical sense dictates that bangladesh asks india for help.I do not beleive china shall act unequivocally on the side of either party.India is the sub-continental naval superpower and in case of a naval conflict the presence of an indian CBG on the bangladeshi side shall be a fait accompli for burma.

by the way for clarification:i have no links ancestral or otherwise to bangladesh, rather my roots lie in orissa.

Bengalraider, thanks for your willingness of help toward Bangladesh. But no one has a clear idea about the possession of the BA(and its sister services as well), not even us, since they maintain too much secrecy about the defence matter.
And in terms of the navy, the BN is undergoing a process of modernization and transformation from a "green water" navy to a dedicated "blue water" ocean going naval force.
And last but not least, if there occurs any conflict, then Uncle Sam is going to be there for us. So theres nothing to worry about.

 

[bengalraider]

Bengalraider, thanks for your willingness of help toward Bangladesh. But no one has a clear idea about the possession of the BA(and its sister services as well), not even us, since they maintain too much secrecy about the defence matter.
And in terms of the navy, the BN is undergoing a process of modernization and transformation from a "green water" navy to a dedicated "blue water" ocean going naval force.
And last but not least, if there occurs any conflict, then Uncle Sam is going to be there for us. So theres nothing to worry about.

Hopefully you are right and any misadventurism by the myanmarese shall be met suitably by the Bangladeshi military. In fact i would very much prefer it if your guys could handle things without sending indian boys into harm's way!

As far as Uncle Sam is concerned, the prima facie main partner for the USN in the IOR is the IN, so make no assumptions this is not 1971. if Uncle Sam wants to intervene India will be involved.

 

[F-14]

I think that the Burma-Bangladesh conflict if any will be limited to ground and naval engagement since that most of the BAF's AFB's are in the Interior of the country and even the closest base to Burma the BAF Chittagong is also a trap for any incoming fighters from the Burmese side since once they commit to a fight they are singing their warrant as this picture can prove

the Closest MAF Air base to Bangladesh is MAF Sittawa other than that i doubt that there will be a air to air exchange as the BAF will also face the above mentioned problems also

Bangladesh Air Force, Bangladesh Biman Bahini, Order of Battle, Maps, Squadrons, Badges, Photo's, Air bases, Database etc etc


now for the navy the UBN (Union of Burma Navy)'s equipment list it self is proof enough to show the decrapet state of the navy but should not be taken at face value at all

List of equipment in Union of Myanmar Navy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

compared to the UBN the BN bangladeashi navy is more strong and more well equiped

List of ships of the Bangladesh Navy - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[sandeepdg]

Who will be the biggest winner if the war breaks out?
a) China
b) India
c) USA

I really doubt that this war will help Bangladeshi/Myanmar's cause in any big way.

India of course.... it will weaken both of them..... we can put our weight behind whosoever is beneficial to our interests....

 

[ppgj]

India of course....

how?

it will weaken both of them

it will. ofcourse. but india will suffer collateral loss in terms of exports besides it will have to put extra troops to man both borders adding extra cost. it is better if there is no war.

we can put our weight behind whosoever is beneficial to our interests....

and draw china closer to our borders? makes sense to play neutral as india needs both of them in good books, particularly in view of north east insurgency where there are serious concerns vis-a-vis both myanmar and bangladesh.