Please tell me how a debt of 200%GDP can be worked out over the short-term when the economy is not growing! "Debt" is a considerable variable when it comes to strategic equation or war. It means how much money you can throw on the table to build up your forces! And it won't be a short term money-burning contest!
One, Japan's economy is already showing signs of recovery, though it is going to be a long journey.
Second, the short-term answer to this debt issue is monetary stimulus (a popular tool in crunch do-or-die situations). Raises inflation & further devalues an already devalued currency, but
does the job at hand (i.e. debt-servicing).
Over the long term, there is no substitute for structural reforms which have already been initiated by the new Premier. So, overall things are looking better for Japan on the economic front, than they were half a decade in the past.
The
real issue is demographic (which you probably under-estimated). All East-Asian tiger economies were able to sustain double-digit growth figures only when surplus labour was available to their workforce. So, even though productivity increased only marginally for them, more hands-at-work was the primary contributor in their erstwhile stellar performance.
Same goes with China. As its population ages (& effects of one-child policy) while relative proportion of productive workforce in overall population (which is workforce+dependents) decreases, its growth would reach a plateau & then on downward trajectory. This trend is already manifested in recent economic performance & would be more marked after 2025.
EU nations are already reeling under the same catastrophe (despite excellent individual productivity in most nations) & there's no easy way out for them. It is already too late for them.
In India's case also, the same phenomena could be exhibited after 2060. Until that happens, as long as this proportion is on favorable side, nations continue to reap the demographic dividend. There is simply no substitute/aberration to this trend.
Unless, a new Industrial, automobile, semiconductor or IT revolution takes place, sharply raising the productivity of existing workforce, only to partly compensate for the unfavorable mix of demography. But even that would eventually need, more hands-at-work & bigger market for consumption of its produce. We saw similar developments the world over in Eurasia & Americas in 18th-19th century, which lead to colonialism & imperialism.
Point is, the demographic challenge that Japan is confronting today is a
loosing war which
China too needs to confront within a decade & India after 2060. However, it is also a fact that owing to its size, China would be more favorably placed than the Japanese, in this respect.[/QUOTE]
Good, you bring up Pak&China as example!
Does China sign any military alliance treaty with Pak? No!
Does China promise to fight for Pakistan? No!
If Chinese is not willing to fight any potential war against a relevant weaker india for Pak, what the chance do you think these 10 nations will fight a war against a far stronger country for OTHER'S interest?
There is some
Treaty of Friendship akin India's treaty with erstwhile USSR, right ? That is nothing but an undisguised euphemism for military alliance. History is full of such such precedents (especially in the 20th century) when such treaties were invoked to safeguard one's territorial sovereignty against the designs/ambitions of a dominating power.
China supplied fissile material, equipment designs, enrichment & reprocessing technology, conducted nuke tests on Pak's behalf in Lop Nor & continues to run Paki Nuke & Missile program. Does the world need more evidence?
Yes, PLA has not overtly come out in past wars against India but that was owing to the real menace of erstwhile USSR & then, US intervention. However, growing Chinese assertiveness creates an environment where a joint offensive by the two brother-in-arms becomes a distinctive possibility, that cannot be discounted. And it is in this light, India's defence preparedness has to be seen.
Now, the South China sea countries might come together in a military alliance
to save their very existence, their territorial integrity which is under growing threat of being subverted by the PRC.
Not a question of "If" & "Whether" but "When".
You have your answers, whether you like them or not.