Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[DG7867]

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indi...h-2019-indian-car-sales-figures-analysis.html

4-wheeler sales for March 2019, data from team-bhp.com

Slowdown seems to continue sales in Mar-2018 was 2.94 lakh units, whereas sales in Mar-2019 is 2.87 lakh units, slowdown of -3%. Hope recent rate cuts will smoothen things out.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

From Over 74 to less than 69 Against USD, INR Appreciated by Rs 5 (7%) in 6 months.


On the 12th October 2018 the spot inter-bank market saw:
Open: 1 USD = 74.0526 INR

Close: 1 USD = 73.6813 INR

Average: 1 USD = 73.762 INR

Lowest: 1 USD = 73.5739 INR

Highest: 1 USD = 73.95 INR

Today's Live Us Dollar into Indian Rupee Exchange Rate
Spot: 1 USD = 68.9650 INR

Independent Provider: 1 USD = 68.4822

Avge. UK Bank International Payment: 1 USD = 66.2616 INR

From October 12, 2018 to April 11, 2019, INR went up by rs 5 in 6 months. This is a rise of 6.75 % in 6 months.

Modi government took series of steps when INR fell against USD in October 2018. The efforts are paying off now. INR strengthened by Rs 5 from over 74 to less than 69 in 6 months. These series of steps taken has a far reaching consequences and it has reduced the Dependence of India's international trade in USD.

Many people suggested at that time that India should issue NRI bonds like previous governments used to do. However midi took a totally different path and entered into agreement with many countries to do trade in local currency and currency swapping in yen. So unlike what Chidambaram did in 2013, modi stabilized INR without increasing liability of USD. INR has recovered very strongly against USD now. This Recovery In last 6 months has added more than half of Pakistan's Economy just by INR appreciation to India's GDP. India now must take many more measures to strengthen INR. The current strong economy allows India to take some stringent measures which may give further rise to India's economy and strength of INR. In many products and services, India should stop selling them at a marginally higher price on cost. Rather India should sell it at a rate marginally lower than the similar services available elsewhere. I am sure that many more steps will follow after Modi wining 2019 general election.

 

[ezsasa]

From Over 74 to less than 69 Against USD, INR Appreciated by Rs 5 (7%) in 6 months.


On the 12th October 2018 the spot inter-bank market saw:
Open: 1 USD = 74.0526 INR

Close: 1 USD = 73.6813 INR

Average: 1 USD = 73.762 INR

Lowest: 1 USD = 73.5739 INR

Highest: 1 USD = 73.95 INR

Today's Live Us Dollar into Indian Rupee Exchange Rate
Spot: 1 USD = 68.9650 INR

Independent Provider: 1 USD = 68.4822

Avge. UK Bank International Payment: 1 USD = 66.2616 INR

From October 12, 2018 to April 11, 2019, INR went up by rs 5 in 6 months. This is a rise of 6.75 % in 6 months.

Modi government took series of steps when INR fell against USD in October 2018. The efforts are paying off now. INR strengthened by Rs 5 from over 74 to less than 69 in 6 months. These series of steps taken has a far reaching consequences and it has reduced the Dependence of India's international trade in USD.

Many people suggested at that time that India should issue NRI bonds like previous governments used to do. However midi took a totally different path and entered into agreement with many countries to do trade in local currency and currency swapping in yen. So unlike what Chidambaram did in 2013, modi stabilized INR without increasing liability of USD. INR has recovered very strongly against USD now. This Recovery In last 6 months has added more than half of Pakistan's Economy just by INR appreciation to India's GDP. India now must take many more measures to strengthen INR. The current strong economy allows India to take some stringent measures which may give further rise to India's economy and strength of INR. In many products and services, India should stop selling them at a marginally higher price on cost. Rather India should sell it at a rate marginally lower than the similar services available elsewhere. I am sure that many more steps will follow after Modi wining 2019 general election.

One more point to watch out for:
Nominal GDP is calculated at 52₹ exchange rate, currency fluctuation will not help GDP unless 52₹ is breached...

 

[HariPrasad-1]

One more point to watch out for:
Nominal GDP is calculated at 52₹ exchange rate, currency fluctuation will not help GDP unless 52₹ is breached...

I do not know this. can you please elaborate?

 

[ezsasa]

I do not know this. can you please elaborate?

Current real GDP is calculated at 2012 base prices, exchange rate was about 52 Rs in 2012.

Excerpt from one of the Ministry of statistics statements (old statement)

Gross Domestic Product
4. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for 2017-18 is estimated as Rs. 170.95 lakh crore while that for 2016-17 is estimated as Rs. 153.62 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 11.3 per cent during 2017-18 as against 11.5 per cent during 2016-17.
5. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 and 2016-17 stand at Rs. 131.80 lakh crore and Rs. 122.98 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.2 per cent during 2017-18 and 8.2 per cent during 2016-17.

http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/f...aving and Capital Formation For 2017-18_0.pdf

 

[Sehwag123]

One more point to watch out for:
Nominal GDP is calculated at 52₹ exchange rate, currency fluctuation will not help GDP unless 52₹ is breached...

Are you sure about that ? AFAIK nominal gdp is calculated on average of current exchange rate. Due to rupee appreciation spectator index has posted on their twitter feed yesterday that India will overtake UK as the 6th largest economy by the end of this year.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Current real GDP is calculated at 2012 base prices, exchange rate was about 52 Rs in 2012.

Excerpt from one of the Ministry of statistics statements (old statement)

Gross Domestic Product
4. Nominal GDP or GDP at current prices for 2017-18 is estimated as Rs. 170.95 lakh crore while that for 2016-17 is estimated as Rs. 153.62 lakh crore, exhibiting a growth of 11.3 per cent during 2017-18 as against 11.5 per cent during 2016-17.
5. Real GDP or GDP at constant (2011-12) prices for 2017-18 and 2016-17 stand at Rs. 131.80 lakh crore and Rs. 122.98 lakh crore, respectively, showing growth of 7.2 per cent during 2017-18 and 8.2 per cent during 2016-17.

http://mospi.nic.in/sites/default/files/press_release/FRE of National Income, Consumption Expenditure, Saving and Capital Formation For 2017-18_0.pdf

But dividing 131 lakh crore with 52 doesn't give 3 Tr USD GDP. Can you please explain how this figure (2.95 Tr USD) is arrived at?

 

[Sehwag123]

But multiplying 131 lakh crore with 52 doesn't give 3 Tr USD GDP.

More like dividing 170 by 52. Why would you multiply ?

 

[HariPrasad-1]

More like dividing 170 by 52. Why would you multiply ?

I already corrected it. ................................

 

[ezsasa]

But dividing 131 lakh crore with 52 doesn't give 3 Tr USD GDP. Can you please explain how this figure (2.95 Tr USD) is arrived at?

3 trillion is 2019-20 projection....
2.67 trillion is for 2018-19... 139 lakh crores

http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-of-india.php

we will get our first official 2019-20 projection from ministry of statistics on Jun 30 2019...

 

[Sehwag123]

I already corrected it. ................................

131/52 = 2.51. then it is close to current nominal gdp

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

But dividing 131 lakh crore with 52 doesn't give 3 Tr USD GDP. Can you please explain how this figure (2.95 Tr USD) is arrived at?

3 trillion is 2019-20 projection....
2.67 trillion is for 2018-19... 139 lakh crores

http://statisticstimes.com/economy/gdp-of-india.php

we will get our first official 2019-20 projection from ministry of statistics on Jun 30 2019...

131/52 = 2.51. then it is close to current nominal gdp

Nominal GDP in dollars is current nominal GDP in INR divided by exchange rate. So, it is 187lakh crore/69 = 2.71 trillion.

From where are you getting figures of 131 lakh or 140 lakh crore? This number is GDP with 2011 base. There is no point in considering 2011 in calculating GDP in 2019. Current nominal GDP is 187 lakh crore and only this number counts. Real GDP is useful only in PPP GDP calculations.

Future projection of GDP is nominal growth of 12-13% with inflation of 5-6%, making real growth at 7-8%. The nominal GDP estimated is at 210 lakh crore. With Dollar exchange rate expected at 4% to Rs72, expected nominal GDP in dollars will be 2.92 trillion USD

 

[shiphone]

actually your statistical department have the official figures every quarter. the so called 2018's GDP figure (celendar year) is based on these official ones.

here's the one by our blogger running the blog about nations' statistical data.

for India in 2018:
nominal gdp : 185.25T INR, year-round average exchange rate: 68.36, so nominal USD gdp: 2.709T USD

in about two months , you will know your 2018-19 FY GDP figure which is more 'official'

 

[Mikesingh]

India’s imports from China decelerating

India’s imports from China stood at $60 billion during the April-January period of 2018-19 fiscal, a deceleration of 5% over the corresponding period a year ago, PHD Chamber of Commerce said on Saturday.

According to the chamber, India’s trade deficit with China also eased to $46 billion in April-January 2019 from $53 billion in the same period a year ago.

“Despite substantial volume of imports from China, India’s import growth from China shrunk from 24% during April to January 2018 to (-) 5% during April-January 2019,” PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry Secretary General Mahesh Reddy said.

Commerce Ministry data showed India’s export to China totalled $13.8 billion, whereas its imports from the neighbouring country stood at $60.1 billion during the April-January period.

Indian shipments to China totalled $13.33 billion in 2017-18 (April-March), whereas the country’s imports from China stood at $76.38 billion in the period.

The chamber said India has seen a major breakthrough in its exports to China during the last few months, whereas imports of Chinese products in India are decelerating.

Its exports to China grew 31% in April-January 2019, increasing from $10 billion in April-January 2018 to $14 billion in April-January 2019, Mr. Reddy said.

Meanwhile, India has identified and shared with China a list of 380 products including horticulture, textiles, chemicals and pharmaceuticals, as their shipments hold huge export potential in the neighbouring country, an official said.

Increasing exports of these products would help India narrow the widening trade deficit with China, which stood at $50.12 billion during April-February 2018-19.

https://www.thehindu.com/todays-pap...report/article26759610.ece?utm_source=taboola

That's encouraging. We need to reduce our trade deficit much further.

 

[Prashant12]

Forex reserves swell by USD 1.87 bn to USD 413.8 bn


Mumbai, Apr 12 () The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 1.876 billion to USD 413.781 billion in the week to April 5, aided by a rise in foreign currency assets, Reserve Bank data showed Friday.

In the previous week, the reserves had surged by USD 5.237 billion to USD 411.905 billion, helped by the maiden dollar-rupee swap conducted by the RBI.

In the reporting week, foreign currency assets -- a major component of the overall reserves -- rose by USD 2.062 billion to USD 386.116 billion.

Expressed in dollar terms, foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation/ depreciation of non-US currencies like the euro, pound and the yen held in the reserves.

The forex kitty had touched a life-time high of USD 426.028 billion in the week to April 13, 2018. Since then, it has been on a slide and is now down by over USD 13 billion.

Gold reserves, which remained unchanged in the previous week, declined by USD 182.6 million to USD 23.225 billion, the data showed.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund dipped by USD 1.2 million to USD 1.455 billion.

The country's reserve position with the Fund too slipped by USD 2.5 million to USD 2.983 billion, the apex bank said. HV BEN ABM ABM

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...7-bn-to-usd-413-8-bn/articleshow/68852756.cms

 

[Suryavanshi]

Forex reserves swell by USD 1.87 bn to USD 413.8 bn


Mumbai, Apr 12 () The country's foreign exchange reserves rose by USD 1.876 billion to USD 413.781 billion in the week to April 5, aided by a rise in foreign currency assets, Reserve Bank data showed Friday.

In the previous week, the reserves had surged by USD 5.237 billion to USD 411.905 billion, helped by the maiden dollar-rupee swap conducted by the RBI.

In the reporting week, foreign currency assets -- a major component of the overall reserves -- rose by USD 2.062 billion to USD 386.116 billion.

Expressed in dollar terms, foreign currency assets include the effect of appreciation/ depreciation of non-US currencies like the euro, pound and the yen held in the reserves.

The forex kitty had touched a life-time high of USD 426.028 billion in the week to April 13, 2018. Since then, it has been on a slide and is now down by over USD 13 billion.

Gold reserves, which remained unchanged in the previous week, declined by USD 182.6 million to USD 23.225 billion, the data showed.

The special drawing rights with the International Monetary Fund dipped by USD 1.2 million to USD 1.455 billion.

The country's reserve position with the Fund too slipped by USD 2.5 million to USD 2.983 billion, the apex bank said. HV BEN ABM ABM

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...7-bn-to-usd-413-8-bn/articleshow/68852756.cms

Seeems like forex is growing every month by a billion.
Ultimately it will stagnate after a certain point

We come at 8 th position in terms of forex.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/033115/10-countries-biggest-forex-reserves.asp

China being the largest at 3.2 trillion.

 

[Mikesingh]

‘Unemployment at 45 year high’ is fake liberal fantasy based on obviously wrong data

There is an old saying that if you have a favourite food, never find out how it’s made. You may no longer be able to eat it.

Today we will apply the same principle to liberals’ favourite ‘fact’ about the Indian economy: the ‘leaked NSSO data’ that shows that unemployment has reached a 45 year high.

Today we will find out how this number was calculated (cooked?). What are the components that went into this number?

- Advertisement -- Article resumes -
So let me tell you some ‘facts’ about India.

Did you know who was the greatest beneficiary of demonetization? It was the casual workers, the ones who work in the informal sector and have to live on daily wages that are mostly paid in cash.

And do you know who suffered the most? It was salaried workers, usually the ones who get their pay credited directly to their bank accounts every month by their employer.

When demonetization hit, the formal economy apparently ran out of internet connections. Instead, the informal economy did very well, apparently because demonetization increased the availability of ready cash they do business in.

Don’t believe me? I’m not kidding. The ‘NSSO data’ actually found this. Real wages (i.e, inflation-adjusted wages) of casual workers are up by 22% between 2011 and 2017. On the other hand, the real wages of salaried workers are down by nearly 20% since 2011 and 2017.

Thank you demonetization for ushering in economic justice on a scale unprecedented in world history. And thank you, Surjit Bhalla, for uncovering all the good news in the ‘leaked NSSO data’.

‘Leaked NSSO data’
You’ve all heard about the ‘leaked NSSO data’. The one that Modi sarkar is apparently trying to suppress. You know, the one that supposedly shows unemployment in India has reached a 45 year high. The liberal media just can’t stop talking about it.

But what the liberal media won’t tell you is how much good news is there in the same ‘leaked NSSO data’.

For instance, did you know just how well the rural economy is doing? It’s going so good that people are leaving the cities and going back to villages to enjoy the boom in the rural economy. According to ‘NSSO data’, India’s urbanization has dipped from 31% in 2011 to 29% now!

Rural distress? What rural distress?

And to think that all our media have left behind their comfortable homes in Lutyens Delhi to understand the ‘rural distress’ in the countryside. Come back! Stop wasting your time. Come back to the big city, which is now less crowded according to ‘NSSO data’! Leave the crowded villages behind and come back to our empty cities!

As if that was not good news enough, did you know that India’s population has declined too? The ‘NSSO data’ also finds that India’s population is just 107 crore people and not 130 crore people.

There is only one explanation for this is that 23 crore Indians must be currently on vacation abroad, enjoying the sights of New York and Paris. And liberals say the economy isn’t doing well! Come on!

Defines belief? Yes! But these are the numbers that went into calculating (cooking?) the number of ‘unemployment at 45 year high’. You can’t choose to believe the headline number and refuse the components that went into it.

What is shocking is that until now, nobody in media or intelligentsia seems to have put in the bare minimum effort to carry out a sanity check on the ‘leaked NSSO data’. The media simply ran with it and the secular establishment was only too happy to weaponize the headline into a stick to beat the government with.

You might remember that recently an ‘auspicious’ number of economists wrote an open letter attacking the government over these supposed figures. These were supposed to be scholars, people with research credentials, people who have been trained to read beyond the headlines and cross-check facts. Could they not have caught these obvious mistakes in the ‘leaked NSSO data’ with five to ten minutes of effort? But they didn’t. They jumped on the propaganda bandwagon. No surprise that most of these ’eminent economists’ were members of the left-liberal complex, some had signed up with their entire families and academic descendants and some were even associated with the Congress campaign.

This is a betrayal of the trust of the Indian people in media and intelligentsia on a scale never seen before.

Propaganda newspapers, propaganda news channels and propagandist intellectuals created a storm of outrage around a piece of ‘unemployment data’ that was obviously wrong.

There is only one question left to ask. How did NSSO make such massive and glaring mistakes? Surjit Bhalla attributes this to a bizarre change in sampling and survey methods. Very well, that’s one possibility. But considering the scale on which the ‘leaked data’ was publicized and used as a propaganda weapon, we common people have to consider other possibilities. Was their deliberate malpractice involved? Did deep assets in the bureaucracy try to help a certain political party by rigging the data or the methods of data collection?

We don’t know. But we do have a right to ask.

https://www.opindia.com/2019/04/une...ral-fantasy-based-on-an-obviously-wrong-data/

 

[Indx TechStyle]

India’s urbanization has dipped from 31% in 2011 to 29% now!

I don't guess any data except this "leaked NSSO data" suggests this.

 

[Immortal]

View attachment 34039 actually your statistical department have the official figures every quarter. the so called 2018's GDP figure (celendar year) is based on these official ones.

here's the one by our blogger running the blog about nations' statistical data.

for India in 2018:
nominal gdp : 185.25T INR, year-round average exchange rate: 68.36, so nominal USD gdp: 2.709T USD

in about two months , you will know your 2018-19 FY GDP figure which is more 'official'

Can you give url of the website where this table has been put

 

[Indx TechStyle]

Can you give url of the website where this table has been put

Statistics.com quotes IMF projections every year.