Don't buy the hype: Russia's military is much weaker than Putin wants us to think

garg_bharat

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As leakage of money has reduced from Russia, ruble has started strengthening.
UAH: prewar 8 to 27 now
RUB: prewar 35 to 73 now
 

Bahamut

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@Bahamut, Western financial institutions have always been able to manipulate currencies. This is a known fact.

Same happened with Ruble. The exchange rate of ruble does not reflect the true state of Russian economy.

However Russia allowed Ruble to float freely, and stopped defending it. The beneficial side effect has been that lower ruble killed high priced imports from Europe and gave a fillip to local brands.
It is use less no matter how facts we put ,no matter how much we try to explain the Russian strategy to deal with the crisis ,they will not listen .Do you know Japan has near 0 growth for last 20 years and same for western Europe for the last 10 years but still if they contract by 1 % ,then that nothing but if Russia grow by 1% then they are in a crisis and they will collapse.And a failed state cannot sent people to space and as for Su 30 I gave a link to @SajeevJino about reason for low serviceability,it was a mistake by IAF stop blaming Russian for it and by they was I am pro Rafale but I am not ready for the deal is there is no ToT.
 

garg_bharat

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Most of India's defense industry was set up with help from the Russians. Even now Russian origin weapons dominate because of Soviet and Russian assistance.

India is building Su-30 (4++ generation) while assembling Hawk (4 gen trainer). Why??
 

garg_bharat

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It is use less no matter how facts we put ,no matter how much we try to explain the Russian strategy to deal with the crisis ,they will not listen .Do you know Japan has near 0 growth for last 20 years and same for western Europe for the last 10 years but still if they contract by 1 % ,then that nothing but if Russia grow by 1% then they are in a crisis and they will collapse.And a failed state cannot sent people to space and as for Su 30 I gave a link to @SajeevJino about reason for low serviceability,it was a mistake by IAF stop blaming Russian for it and by they was I am pro Rafale but I am not ready for the deal is there is no ToT.
I don't care if Rafale is bought or not. However my prediction stands.
And militarymen who think USA is a friend will be deeply disappointed in future.

India chose a non-aligned path for itself due to its unique civilization and values. I think that stands, above anything else.
 

Bahamut

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Well Russian weapon industry are very advance
NATO Commander Breedlove agrees (naturally) with LunaticOutpost.com. Russia is 'weaponizing' everything: robotic cockroaches, MS Word files, Jedi mind trick, Soviet history and Syrian immigrants. Whatever you might think of.

 

Razor

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It is use less no matter how facts we put ,no matter how much we try to explain the Russian strategy to deal with the crisis ,they will not listen .Do you know Japan has near 0 growth for last 20 years and same for western Europe for the last 10 years but still if they contract by 1 % ,then that nothing but if Russia grow by 1% then they are in a crisis and they will collapse.And a failed state cannot sent people to space and as for Su 30 I gave a link to @SajeevJino about reason for low serviceability,it was a mistake by IAF stop blaming Russian for it and by they was I am pro Rafale but I am not ready for the deal is there is no ToT.
Don't waste time and breathe with wannabe Zionists like Sajjev. Their psychosis is taking control of their ability to think.
According to them apparently the super-duper world power aka the US, sends its cosmonauts using a failed state's rockets. :pound:
These guys are hilarious to say the least.

Geography(geopolitics) and integrity of the citizen-folk & leadership are most important for future of any nation.
Geopolitics shows that USA (and its poodles like the UK) don't want countries like Germany and France getting closer to Russia. So the USA will continue to prop up countries like poland, ukraine. All this isloation-recession talk is not going to work out on Russia.
 
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sorcerer

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Don’t Fall for Obama’s $3 Billion Arms Buildup at Russia’s Door

There is no Russian resurgence. Washington is playing on your Cold War fears to get you to pay for something the U.S. does not need and can’t afford.



In one of the key justifications for the new $600 billion defense spending request, the Department of Defense has fallen back on a tried-and-true Cold War boogeyman: the threat of Russian aggression against allies in Europe. While there is no ignoring the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, to interpret these events as some kind of Russian “resurgence” is to grossly inflate the danger Russia poses to NATO and the United States.

Ukraine and Georgia were targeted precisely because they fell outside of U.S. security guarantees, lacked significant strategic importance to the west, and, most importantly from the Russian viewpoint, were making overt moves toward NATO membership. Russia has long opposed the expansion of NATO into its traditional sphere of influence. The reasons are rooted in a history of aggression from Western Europe, as memories of the devastation meted out by Napoleon, Kaiser Wilhelm, and Hitler still linger.

While Russia suffered little for its war against Georgia, the annexation of Crimea proved to be an incredibly damaging move. Though Crimea has been a historic lynchpin of Russian grand strategy for centuries, its open use of military force and political manipulation there in the midst of the Ukrainian Revolution drew an immediate response in the form of sanctions from the West. Russia is paying a massive economic and diplomatic cost for its aggression against Ukraine, from its ejection from the G8 to the cratering of its currency.

It is important to keep all this in mind when looking at the assumptions underlying the Pentagon’s budget request. President Barack Obama wants to quadruple the budget for the European Reassurance Initiative, or ERI, from $789 million to $3.4 billion. What’s the ERI? It’s a U.S. program started in 2014 in response to the Crimean annexation to bolster the ability of NATO to deal with destabilizing actions. In other words: Obama just asked Congress to fund the biggest military buildup by NATO in Eastern Europe since the Cold War.

But what will this program accomplish? It’s meant to deter further Russian aggression, but fails to identify where that aggression might reasonably fall. A NATO buildup of this magnitude also neglects to take into account just how provocative such a move would be; by concentrating troops on Russia’s border, we are playing into Putin’s long-standing criticisms of NATO encirclement.



Claims that any NATO member is at risk of Russian invasion is a flawed reading of recent history. No matter what one might think of Putin, the idea that he would risk a war with NATO is ridiculous on its face. That is a no-win scenario, and Putin’s past behavior all points to interventions where there is a very minimal risk of western involvement.

The Russian Federation of today is not the Soviet Union of the 1980s, despite the fervent wishes of those looking to restart the Cold War. Moscow’s military spending has increased in real terms and as a percentage of GDP in the last several years. Current estimates figure it between $70 billion and 85 billion (which matches about 15 percent of the U.S. defense budget). But Russia’s economy is in recession. The Russian military no longer has the ability to mobilize the combined forces of the USSR and Warsaw Pact as it once did. Nearly all of its former client states, with the exception of Ukraine, Belarus, and Moldova, are now NATO members. No amount of spending or technological development by Russia is going to change the fact NATO countries represent over 900 million people who spend nearly a trillion dollars per annum on defense.

The Defense Department is inflating the threat Russia poses, which allows the Obama administration, senior military leaders, and supporters in Congress to justifying maintaining the historic highs in defense spending, which in real terms in now more than the U.S. spent during the Cold War. Meanwhile, the U.S. debt continues to grow ever-staggering heights while critical investment opportunities are ignored. The U.S. budget, despite the $4 trillion price tag this year, is finite. Billions that go to support placing more equipment in Eastern Europe and putting an armored brigade on rotation are billions that cannot be spent retraining U.S. workers or rebuilding America’s failing infrastructure.

President Dwight D. Eisenhower, shortly after the death of Joseph Stalin in 1953, eloquently stated, “Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.” Voters and their representatives have a choice to make: continue down the road of reckless spending to counter phantom threats, or acknowledge that to truly secure the future of this country, we must tend to our own house and strengthen its foundations.


http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/201...ms-buildup-russias-door/126255/?oref=d-skybox
 

Nuvneet Kundu

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I have to digress.

USA might have gotten a foothold in Western Ukraine, but that is at the cost of losing a lot of its remaining credibility. Also in trying to armtwist the EU, it farther lost the game of perception in the eyes of Europeans. Not to mention, its support for the new Nazi groups will come home to roost in future, as the Europeans have a knee-jerk hatred for Nazis in any form, and already there is division in German polity regarding the Ukraine govt., which got supressed due to migrant issue, but will raise its head in time.

Also, USA can never afford deploy heavy troops in Ukraine, and antagonise Russia whereby Russia may very well give hard reply somewhere else. Already USA is seeing the reply to its meddling in Ukraine in ME. USA lost Syria, on the verge of losing Iraq, Iran is getting stronger by Russian support and its playmate the Saudis have been put into a box by Russia.

So, to see the overall picture - not restricted to Ukraine only- diplomatically Putin has gained far more than he lost, when USA's gain is inconsequential for a longer period. USA gained a puppet new Nazi govt in a nation which is already bankrupt, and too close to Russia that it cannot maneuver too openly. But Russia gained half of the ME who are far from being bankrupt, as allies. Russia even managed to make many Europeans to see the hypocrisy as well as high-handedness of USA.
The best platform on which this played out coherently was on RT. While BBC and CNN were fumbling with "Ohh look look Putin, bad guy, Putin, Putin, bad guy, bad Putin, bad" kind of reporting, RT was handing them their asses on a sliver platter. Ultimately, Russia ended up with more territory, more diplomatic clout, more strategic friends, it has also transferred a lot of military technology to China to offset the cost of the war in Syria and Ukraine and in the process, it has strengthened the most (financially) capable adversary that America has ever faced. At this point, America's position is like that of an overconfident tiger who tried to hunt a porcupine, and regrets its decision after getting stung all over.

In the process, Russia has delivered a powerful message to the USA "Russia exists not because the USA allows it to exist. Russia exists because it is powerful". For every move that the US made, Russia responded with a solid strategic move and ensured that the strategic equilibrium remains unchanged. Since the status quo remains unchanged, all the investment that the US made in changing it is sunk cost. Russia and Israel have emerged as winners; Israel more so, given the comparatively small investment that they made, this war has decimated their regional rival Syria completely, and destabilized Turkey partially.
 
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Dark Sorrow

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How? Indian OFB/MOD/Military are not exactly saints.
You think you know inside story of everything. I say unlikely.

Arms deals are complex. We do not know what exactly goes on.
Sir, I never said Indian OFB/MOD/Military are saints they are are equally corrupt and lethargic.
All I am saying is that Russians screwed us for good and milked us dry in this deal. This is a well proven and debated fact.
 

garg_bharat

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Sir, I never said Indian OFB/MOD/Military are saints they are are equally corrupt and lethargic.
All I am saying is that Russians screwed us for good and milked us dry in this deal. This is a well proven and debated fact.
No. It is not true.

If Russians have charged beyond the contract, the contract is liable to be cancelled. Every contract has some slack. Also sometimes requirements change and supplier takes advantage of that.

We got Vik and T-90 at very good prices.

We are building INS Vikrant. It has already costed more than INS Vikramaditya and it is not even complete.

Arjun tank costs twice of T-90.

We may have had some dispute about tech of T-90 etc. but then remember Russia sold us T90 when it was their frontline tank. They are also scared.
 

garg_bharat

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We can build T-72 and T-90 engines while we have to import Arjun engine. The T-90 has higher local content compared to Arjun. These are indisputable facts.
 

Dark Sorrow

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No. It is not true.

If Russians have charged beyond the contract, the contract is liable to be cancelled. Every contract has some slack. Also sometimes requirements change and supplier takes advantage of that.

We got Vik and T-90 at very good prices.

We are building INS Vikrant. It has already costed more than INS Vikramaditya and it is not even complete.

Arjun tank costs twice of T-90.
Sir, I don't want to be rude but you are living in denial. Just refer DFI threads regarding both subjects.
If you do the cumulative cost that India pain for Vikramaditya India paid more for it compared to INS Vikrant.
INS Vikrant is much more advanced compared to INS Vikramaditya. Also INS Vikrant will be in service for more time INS Vikramaditya.
It doesn't matter what ship cost what. The fact remains Russian exponentially increased the cost of ship and the Russian threatened that if India doesn't pay Russia will induct the ship in its navy and no refund will be given to India.
The Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) criticised the fact that Vikramaditya would be a second-hand warship with a limited life-span, which would be 60% costlier than a new one, and there was a risk of further delay in its delivery.
It does not matter what Arjun cost we are talking about Russians arm-twisting Indian.
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2011/11/t-90-tank-technology-transfer-supply-of.html
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2011/11/part-ii-armys-delayed-orders-halts-t-90.html

I find it sad that Indians care more about Russian interest more that India's interest that they are ready to hurt India for sake of Russia
Russia sold us T90 when it was their frontline tank. They are also scared.
Because they needed money. It is as simple as that.
 
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garg_bharat

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If you are correct, then there was no need for India to pay increased price for Vik. India could have just declined.
But India decided to pay and take delivery. This means that the reports you are reading are not in tune with the reality.

INS Vikrant is not yet inducted due to delays. Its air group has arrived before the ship. This says something about planning and execution.

If Ajai Shukla is your God, then I can say nothing more.

Is Vik just a second rate ship with a limited life?? I dont think so. It will last same as other IN ships. What CAG said must have been according to the original justification of Vik, but then that changed as scope of refurbishment was increased.

The problem with such criticism is that India is still ordering more from Russia, and has long term support contracts with Russia, yet some people are hell bent on spoiling the relationship.
 

garg_bharat

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Money - let us not think that Russia is bankrupt and needs our money badly.

We go to Russia because we like its products. If you think defence forces are boneheads, then of course I cannot help you.

IAF selected Rafale because it was the best product. I do not doubt it. But procurement procedure was manipulated for it. So it fell into dispute.

If Rafale is the best, why T-90 is third rate?? It is selected by the Army.
 

Dark Sorrow

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If you are correct, then there was no need for India to pay increased price for Vik. India could have just declined.
But India decided to pay and take delivery. This means that the reports you are reading are not in tune with the reality.
What about the money (millions of dollars) that India already spent??? How would have you justifies the money spent and not product received???
INS Vikrant is not yet inducted due to delays. Its air group has arrived before the ship. This says something about planning and execution.
So, what. Russian increased the cost of ship and delivery time after finalizing the contract. This shows about This says something about their planning and execution.
Again we are not here talking about project management, finance, technology. We are talking how Russians screwed us.
If Ajai Shukla is your God, then I can say nothing more.
What's wrong with you??? I cross posted his article which has several valid points. How does that make him my god.
Is Vik just a second rate ship with a limited life?? I dont think so. It will last same as other IN ships. What CAG said must have been according to the original justification of Vik, but then that changed as scope of refurbishment was increased.
The term second-rate ship was introduced by you. I said second-hand ship which is true.
It doesn't matter what you think every ship has a limited usable life span in case of INS Vikramadityait will be less than new carrier. This is what CAG also has stated in its report.
The problem with such criticism is that India is still ordering more from Russia, and has long term support contracts with Russia, yet some people are hell bent on spoiling the relationship.
The actual problem is some Indians are putting Russian interest ahead of India's interest.
 

garg_bharat

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1. MOD has cancelled contracts even after spending millions of dollars. MOD can always ask the supplier country to refund the money after cancelling the contract, if there is a breach of contract.

2. In a refurbishment project, the scope will become obvious only when you remove the old equipment. As I understand, they realized late that scope was bigger than what they thought initially. As work was more, the Russians demanded more money. Remember that ship was rotting away for several years, and was in a bad condition.

3. No comments about Ajai Shukla's article. Whatever doubts you have, you should ask Indian government.

4. Life of Vik, as I said, is now equal to a new ship due to extensive work done on it. It should last 25-30 years with proper maintenance.

5. Putting Russian interests above India's. So you can buy a 6M$ gun from USA, no questions asked, but a 2M$ tank from Russia compromises India's interests. Quite interesting.
 

Dark Sorrow

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1. MOD has cancelled contracts even after spending millions of dollars. MOD can always ask the supplier country to refund the money after cancelling the contract, if there is a breach of contract.
When has MOD has cancelled contracts even after spending millions of dollars ??? Russia made it completely that they would induct the ship and no where they specified they would refund.
2. In a refurbishment project, the scope will become obvious only when you remove the old equipment. As I understand, they realized late that scope was bigger than what they thought initially. As work was more, the Russians demanded more money. Remember that ship was rotting away for several years, and was in a bad condition.
The fact remains INS Vikramaditya is a second-hand warship with a limited life-span, which would be 60% costlier than a new one as per CAG and the Russians screwed over it.
3. No comments about Ajai Shukla's article. Whatever doubts you have, you should ask Indian government.
Like it or now the guy has some very valid points an how Russians screwed us.
4. Life of Vik, as I said, is now equal to a new ship due to extensive work done on it. It should last 25-30 years with proper maintenance.
No it is not. Please don't make claims in thin air without proper backing. A new carrier like Vikrant class can service 50-60 years easily with proper maintenance.
5. Putting Russian interests above India's. So you can buy a 6M$ gun from USA, no questions asked, but a 2M$ tank from Russia compromises India's interests. Quite interesting.
Typical comment from pro-Russian member. When everything else fail starting diverting the discussion towards US and anyone who disagrees with them is an US supporter.
 

garg_bharat

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When has MOD has cancelled contracts even after spending millions of dollars ??? Russia made it completely that they would induct the ship and no where they specified they would refund.

The fact remains INS Vikramaditya is a second-hand warship with a limited life-span, which would be 60% costlier than a new one as per CAG and the Russians screwed over it.

Like it or now the guy has some very valid points an how Russians screwed us.

No it is not. Please don't make claims in thin air without proper backing. A new carrier like Vikrant class can service 50-60 years easily with proper maintenance.

Typical comment from pro-Russian member. When everything else fail starting diverting the discussion towards US and anyone who disagrees with them is an US supporter.
1. Did MOD initiate a cancellation of contract? You are going by press reports. Show me an official communication that contradicts me. It is clear to even a fool that Russia would have inducted the ship if Indian MOD cancelled the contract.

2. No. Show me the figures.

3. No.

4. You are mistaken. INS Vikrant will have 30 years life.

5. I don't care if you are a US supporter or not. The discussion is about fundamental issues.
 

garg_bharat

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India chose a non-aligned path.................. is a big joke :lol: leftist Idiot Nehru cunningly played 'NAM card' but back-hand he joined USSR camp.Why back-hand? he terrified to antagonize US(West/Nato forces)and US knew it very well.

Nehru policies are the main reason India still called as poverty shit-hole thanks to PVN Rao(92 LPG) we at-least called as mini shit-hole now.

Ex.S korea&Japan with West ....North korea with Russia&China.
Tired arguments. Revisionist.

Nehru largely did what was appropriate to his time and condition of the country. Nehru's only fault was that he was idealist and he misread China.

Even BJP refrains from criticizing Nehru.

India went to USSR in panic when American tilt towards Pakistan became clear.
 
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garg_bharat

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The semi-socialism of India was needed other wise country would have split again. People forget the divisions in Hindu society and even in Muslim society.

It takes time to build a nation. The independence gained in 1947 is only a milestone.
 

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