Consequences of High Population

[Yusuf]

We will see high population (and young at that) countries get rich to a certain extent and then slowly "colonize" the erstwhile super power and colonial powers. It with very old population. We are already seeing that. Say a country like Britain will be completely dominated by Indians a few decades from now. What happened 400 years ago will be reversed.

 

[roma]

We will see high population (and young at that) countries get rich to a certain extent and then slowly "colonize" the erstwhile super power and colonial powers. It with very old population. We are already seeing that. Say a country like Britain will be completely dominated by Indians a few decades from now. What happened 400 years ago will be reversed.

Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

What we need is a healthy balance. Any policy may backfire. Various situations of backfire:

- Large population, slow economy. India can lend up there if it does not grow enough to get jobs for all its youth. Results would be civil strife and other problems.
- Adopt family planning leading to increase the proportion of the old in future. Europe is facing it right now, China will face it 20 years down the line. Young will have to pay for the pensions of the old, not a very good scenario if the old outnumber the young by large.

 

[hello_10]

Population growth biggest threat to India's development

Rising population is the greatest threat to the sustainable development in India, a policy maker has told a recent summit.

Rural areas in particular must receive better formal education on environmental issues to improve the quality of stewardship.

SP Singh, a planning advisor to the state of Uttarakhand said that the failure to manage population in the Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand could lead to the disruption of natural resource management in Himalayan region.

Singh called for improvements in society's understanding of the economic and environmental impact of ecosystem services.

He also said a system of accountability was required to prevent the indiscriminate use of natural resources.

At an international level, Indian politicians are calling for the right to use their resources to pursue development, without externally imposed constraints from the UN.

The Environmental concerns and sustainable development conference, organised by the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development (IESD), Banaras Hindu University, also heard a plea for local knowledge to come to the fore.

"Wisdom emerging from the local community is a better method for sustainable development," said Professor PS Ramakrishnan, Jawaharlal Nehru University, who pointed to political conflict as the main driver of environmental degradation.

India is currently facing the "perfect storm" scenario of escalating climate impacts, rapidly growing population and increasing development all putting pressure on food security and ecosystem health.

Instilling sustainability concepts for developing nations, such as efficient cook stoves and clean lighting can have benefits for human health and the environment.

The Sundarbans habitat, which spans Indian and Bangladeshi territory is currently under is facing immense environmental pressures and could soon be home to a new coal power station.

Population growth biggest threat to India's development | RTCC - Responding to Climate Change

I would like to advise Mr SP Singh, a planning advisor to the state of Uttarakhand, for a proper "kicked off" of the people of non-Himalaya's region. just to see, how exactly their native states handle this 'excess' population if they back their native states. as, sooner or later we will have to take this type of steps, whether after destroying the Himalayan region or before it

 

[Mad Indian]

Fourth, China's population is becoming increasingly mobile. The next 20 to 30 years will be a period when China's urbanization is fully accelerating and China's population mobility is at the largest scale and in the most active period. There will be about 300 million people moving from villages to towns and cities in China during that period.

I dont see anything wrong with that

Its a positive trend if the Urban population is on the rise. IT will lead to better efficiency of the economy in every way

 

[Mad Indian]

What we need is a healthy balance. Any policy may backfire. Various situations of backfire:

- Large population, slow economy. India can lend up there if it does not grow enough to get jobs for all its youth. Results would be civil strife and other problems.

But a free market economy can turn this into a great advantage for us no?

 

[Sakal Gharelu Ustad]

^^Ofcourse. More population means more ideas and bigger economy in the overall sense.

 

[jamesvaikom]

For instance, South Korea , Taiwan, Netherlands have a Bigger population density than India and Japan ,Isreal Belgium etc have a very close population density of India. Still they have managed a very high HDI and a very high prosperity level. Why? Also take into account the Hostile condition in which Israel is situated, the hostile as well as poor condition in which Taiwan and South Korea started out, and the devastated state in which the Japan started out(after ignoring the fact that it is mineral poor state)?

India has 1/4th of the arable land in the world. It has the largest area in cultivation. So theoretically we can support a much larger population without deteriorating our standard of living.What country has the most arable land?. And we have a very good mineral resource!

I think the reason india screwed up is because we Indians fcuked ourselves up with a highly inefficient Socialistic economic model.

So I really think it is high time we indians stopped blaming our problems on the Population and instead focus on removing the inefficiencies in present system!
And if you think high population precludes development, think USA- the third most populous country in the world :thumb:

Population in countries like South Korea, Japan etc are very less compared to world population. Their products are sold all over the world. Their percapita income is very high because less people are making products which have consumer base all over the world. But our customer base outside our country is very less compared to population. Eventhough population density of countries like South Korea, Japan etc are very high, their fertility rate is very less. People who have less children can spend more money for their childrens education. More educated people means more people ready to use machines. But in India due to high fertility rate most people are spending more money for food than for education. Our productivity is very less because we depend more on manual labor than machines. Almost all jobs created by MGNREGA are useless. But such jobs are needed to uplift poor. We buy vegetables at rates many times higher than rates at which farmers sell them. But if Govt. try to cut middlemen then many people will loss their jobs.-




Kerala is one of densest state in India. But still our standard of living is higher than people in most states. This is because due to low fertility rate we are able to spend more money for education. Our standard of living is improving due to remittance from abroad. Population of Kerala is very less compared to jobs available around the world. But demand for work force will reduce if people in other states also start going abroad for jobs.




Its a fact that a small group of people always exploits majority population. Countries like India with high population growth are helping developed countries get high demand for their products and cheap work force. Now many citizens of Western countries are lossing their jobs because immigrants from countries like India are ready to do jobs at lower rates. But if the trend continues then protest movements like Occupy Wall Street will gain strength and Governments in those countries will be forced to either demand companies to provide more jobs to locals or impose higher tax on immigrants and use that money to help their citizens. Citizens in countries with surplus jobs will always have the last laugh.-




Almost all districts, states and countries with high fertility rates are facing problems like poverty, malnutrition, high crime rate etc than other places. Middle east countries are facing less poverty than us eventhough their fertility rate is very high. But that is because they are utilizing cheaper work force and higher demand for oil from countries like India. But they never achieved anything from their population growth. Most citizens of those countries are jobless because they are getting more money as dividend from public sector oil companies than Indians working in those companies. Some countries like Syria are facing civil war because their oil reserves are deprecating.-




Its not true that we have enough resources like coal. We started importing coal. Our coal reserves won't last beyond 2030. High population growth means less percapita resources. We should give importance to high percapita income than total income.

 

[Mad Indian]

Population in countries like South Korea, Japan etc are very less compared to world population. Their products are sold all over the world. Their percapita income is very high because less people are making products which have consumer base all over the world. But our customer base outside our country is very less compared to population. Eventhough population density of countries like South Korea, Japan etc are very high, their fertility rate is very less. People who have less children can spend more money for their childrens education. More educated people means more people ready to use machines. But in India due to high fertility rate most people are spending more money for food than for education. Our productivity is very less because we depend more on manual labor than machines. Almost all jobs created by MGNREGA are useless. But such jobs are needed to uplift poor. We buy vegetables at rates many times higher than rates at which farmers sell them. But if Govt. try to cut middlemen then many people will loss their jobs.-

Dude. I am tired of repeating what I said again and again. Our POLICIES are shitty which are holding us back(and held us back worse in the immediate post independance period).

Again I will answer two things.
1. Population- Not a problem if you look at Japan(ninth most populous in the world) and USA(third most populous in the world)
2. Consumer base and other production?. We dont need to sell everything to the world. USA is more or less a domestic consumption based economy

MY point is, if a country which has to import food to even keep itself alive can produce a strong economy, there is no reason why a country which is self sufficient in food, cant produce one. PERIOD.

Kerala is one of densest state in India. But still our standard of living is higher than people in most states. This is because due to low fertility rate we are able to spend more money for education. Our standard of living is improving due to remittance from abroad. Population of Kerala is very less compared to jobs available around the world. But demand for work force will reduce if people in other states also start going abroad for jobs.

And did the Japanese and the Koreans depend on the Jobs abroad to produce a strong economy.?

NO dude, the reason Kerala can afford to be such a lavish spending state is that it is rich in high riced resources like rubber and spices. That said, your state , despite having excellent water resource, has to depend on everything on neighboring states.. And even then TN has a better economy than Kerala. And hopefully, if we dont do a major screw up, we will end up much richer than Kerala(considering you are stuck with commies, who are by themselves responsible for the mess India is in) I the coming decades considering both of the parties here are highly prodevelopment.

Its a fact that a small group of people always exploits majority population. Countries like India with high population growth are helping developed countries get high demand for their products and cheap work force. Now many citizens of Western countries are lossing their jobs because immigrants from countries like India are ready to do jobs at lower rates. But if the trend continues then protest movements like Occupy Wall Street will gain strength and Governments in those countries will be forced to either demand companies to provide more jobs to locals or impose higher tax on immigrants and use that money to help their citizens. Citizens in countries with surplus jobs will always have the last laugh.-

SO???

Almost all districts, states and countries with high fertility rates are facing problems like poverty, malnutrition, high crime rate etc than other places. Middle east countries are facing less poverty than us eventhough their fertility rate is very high. But that is because they are utilizing cheaper work force and higher demand for oil from countries like India. But they never achieved anything from their population growth. Most citizens of those countries are jobless because they are getting more money as dividend from public sector oil companies than Indians working in those companies. Some countries like Syria are facing civil war because their oil reserves are deprecating.-

You want to come here to compare a governance and economic efficiency of Middle east to disprove what I am saying is wrong, which is that if the government is efficient, then the population is a boon, not a bane?

Also, incase you dint notice, even within India, TN face far less poverty and Naxalism compared to other sparecely populated areas in India itself

Its not true that we have enough resources like coal. We started importing coal. Our coal reserves won't last beyond 2030. High population growth means less percapita resources. We should give importance to high percapita income than total income.

Links please?

Again did Japan have any coal with it or even iron or petrol, any other mineral for that matter??

 

[jamesvaikom]

Dude. I am tired of repeating what I said again and again. Our POLICIES are shitty which are holding us back(and held us back worse in the immediate post independance period).

Again I will answer two things.
1. Population- Not a problem if you look at Japan(ninth most populous in the world) and USA(third most populous in the world)
2. Consumer base and other production?. We dont need to sell everything to the world. USA is more or less a domestic consumption based economy

MY point is, if a country which has to import food to even keep itself alive can produce a strong economy, there is no reason why a country which is self sufficient in food, cant produce one. PERIOD.

Standard of living is higher in cities than in villages eventhough population growth is higher in cities than in villages. This is because fertility rate is lower in cities than in villages. Population growth is higher in cities because productive people migrate from villages to cities. Can you name any district or state in India where standard of living is improving due to high fertility rate? I can name many districts and states where standard of living is high and fertility rate is low. So what is the use of high fertility rate if people who have more children are not getting benefits from it?

In past western countries attacked us and looted our resources. On the other hand Japan attacked other countries and looted their resources. Japan is the ninth most populous country in the world. But their population is just 126 million. For them 7 billion is a big market. But One-Sixth of the World's Population are in India. So for us 7 billion is not a big market for us. USA is a bigger country than us with lesser population. They have more natural resources than us. A large percentage of population are skilled immigrants from countries like India. USA can depend on domestic consumption as long as they remain as super power and get financial supports from countries like Saudi Arabia.

I agree that food is our basic need. But demand for food is not as high as demands for products made in factories. If you compare income from 100 acres farm land which employ 100 people and a factory constructed in 100 acres of land and employ 100 people then you will understand that income from the factory is many times higher than from farm land.

 

[jamesvaikom]

And did the Japanese and the Koreans depend on the Jobs abroad to produce a strong economy.?

NO dude, the reason Kerala can afford to be such a lavish spending state is that it is rich in high riced resources like rubber and spices. That said, your state , despite having excellent water resource, has to depend on everything on neighboring states.. And even then TN has a better economy than Kerala. And hopefully, if we dont do a major screw up, we will end up much richer than Kerala(considering you are stuck with commies, who are by themselves responsible for the mess India is in) I the coming decades considering both of the parties here are highly prodevelopment.

Japanese and Koreans have less children. So they are able to spend more money for their childrens education. This helped their industry get more skilled people.

Only very less percentage of people in Kerala have rubber plantations. Income from farming is almost nil if we reduce money spend to import vegetables and rice we consume. Climate and geographical conditions are almost same in Idukki and Wayanad districts. But most farmers in Wayanad district are facing financial crises while most farmers in Idukki district are making profit. This is because people in Idukki district have less children compared to people in Wayanad.

I agree that politicians in TN are pro-development. Our Govt. and politicians are helping to create blue-collar jobs only eventhough most malayalis likes to do white-collar and skilled jobs only. One reason( or excuse) for this is population density is very high in Kerala compared to TN( My view is that we should give more importance to provide employment to productive people than for environmental problems. We can reduce environmental problems by encouraging people in Malabar region to use family planning.). But this attitude is changing atleast in IT sector due to low fertility rate. Many malayali IT professionals who worked in Bengaluru, Hyderabad etc. got transfer to Kochi and TVM when IT companies like Infosys, TCS, Wipro started branches here.

 

[jamesvaikom]

SO???

Western countries encourage productive immigrants. But many citizens of those countries are losing jobs because illegal immigrants with less skills are ready to do jobs at less rate. If Governments in those countries take action against illegal immigrants then many Indians will loss their jobs. In India inflation is high because many people are doing useless jobs. If we try to increase productivity then many people will loss their jobs.

 

[jamesvaikom]

You want to come here to compare a governance and economic efficiency of Middle east to disprove what I am saying is wrong, which is that if the government is efficient, then the population is a boon, not a bane?

Also, incase you dint notice, even within India, TN face far less poverty and Naxalism compared to other sparecely populated areas in India itself

My point is districts, states or countries with high fertility rate are facing more poverty than other places. Middle East countries are facing less poverty because they are getting money by selling their natural resources. They are not getting any tax revenue from their citizens. Can you name any district, state or country with high fertility rate where standard of living is improving due to increase in their work force( not immigrants work force)?

Fertility rate of south Indian states including TN are very less compared to other states. This is the reason why standard of living is higher in south Indian states than in other states. Population density is very less in Assam than in TN. But many people in Assam are living in flood prone areas. There are many places which are not good for living. Due to high population growth many people are forced to live in barren land, ELF, flood prone areas, glaciers etc. Many people who live in barren land have to walk miles to bring drinking water.

 

[jamesvaikom]

Links please?

Again did Japan have any coal with it or even iron or petrol, any other mineral for that matter??

I read somewhere that our coal reserves won't last beyond 2030. But I am not able to find that link now. But if you want I can provide links about our companies like Coal India, Reliance power, Tata power Adani power etc are investing money in coal mines abroad. Our Govt. is getting only very less income from natural resources. The main income is tax collection. Illiterate and poor people have more children than middle class people. If Govt. don't help illiterate and poor people then foreign NGOs will use them by providing peanut money. To reduce those problem Govt. will impose more direct and indirect tax on middle class.

Japan has only less mineral wealth. But low fertility rate helped them spend more money for education. So they have only less unproductive people.

 

[hello_10]

does my posts #25, #31 also contribute anything regarding Korea and Japan, I answered before on this topic? and with that, even if most of us have science degrees, do the scientists of post #3 also know little bit more than us??????

and, did we read the posts #1, #2, #5, #6, #9, #10, #11 and #14???? how does it mean, what we know by ourselves until we haven't read the related topics first????

why do we have any science summit, research etc like the above key news/posts, if we got just nothing out of these professional reports/analysis and keep talking by ourselves only????

 

[Mad Indian]

Western countries encourage productive immigrants. But many citizens of those countries are losing jobs because illegal immigrants with less skills are ready to do jobs at less rate. If Governments in those countries take action against illegal immigrants then many Indians will loss their jobs. In India inflation is high because many people are doing useless jobs. If we try to increase productivity then many people will loss their jobs.

And which economist taught you that?

 

[Mad Indian]

does my posts #25, #31 also contribute anything regarding Korea and Japan, I answered before on this topic? and with that, even if most of us have science degrees, do the scientists of post #3 also know little bit more than us??????

and, did we read the posts #1, #2, #5, #6, #9, #10, #11 and #14???? how does it mean, what we know by ourselves until we haven't read the related topics first????

why do we have any science summit, research etc like the above key news/posts, if we got just nothing out of these professional reports/analysis and keep talking by ourselves only????

Oh shut the clap trap. The consequences of having a very small family is being felt in both Europe and China. Dont expect me to buy that bull shit...

And you still dint answer my post regarding the goldman sachs and other such predictions which show a bright future for Indians and Chinese, which should not be possible considering the high population and lack of resources and market for their products
@jamesvaikom

I think you have fairly valid points, but all of them are non-sequitors. I think you will understand what I mean, if you are a bit open minded and read about the goldman sachs report on BRICs and ask yourself, why now and why not before....

 

[Mad Indian]

Total fertility rate - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Interesting link regarding the TFR of USA... Tell me honestly what do you see ????

 

[jamesvaikom]

And which economist taught you that?

Its good to read views of economists. But don't blindly follow them. Do you know the hit ratio of calls made by economists and analysts? We should use our own brain. Only herd will follow economists and analysts blindly. They will give sell call when market reaches bottom and buy call when market reaches top. Can you tell me how many investment bankers predicted their own bankruptcy?

 

[jamesvaikom]

Oh shut the clap trap. The consequences of having a very small family is being felt in both Europe and China. Dont expect me to buy that bull shit...

And you still dint answer my post regarding the goldman sachs and other such predictions which show a bright future for Indians and Chinese, which should not be possible considering the high population and lack of resources and market for their products
@jamesvaikom

I think you have fairly valid points, but all of them are non-sequitors. I think you will understand what I mean, if you are a bit open minded and read about the goldman sachs report on BRICs and ask yourself, why now and why not before....

hello_10's points are valid. During 60s and 70s industrial countries like Japan, Korea etc got cheap raw materials because under-developed countries didn't know how to utilize their raw-materials. Now these countries are facing economic slowdown. But their standard of living is still high because they earned enough money needed for decades during indusial revolution. Economic slowdown is not causing them much problem because their expense is not increasing as their population is not growing.

Europe and China are facing less problems compared to countries with high population growth. The main problem in Western countries is their real estate price is going down. People who have more than 1 house are not able to sell their extra house at higher rates. But that situation is better than situation in India where many people don't have proper shelter. Western countries are spending more money for old age homes. But that situation is better than situation in India where many children are dying because their parents don't have money to provide food and medicines to their children. Life expectancy of some African countries are less than 40. Those countries won't face old age problems because most people die before they grew older. So old age problem is better than dying young.

In past middle class people were able to save more money because lower class people did work at cheap rates. But now the situation is changing. Govt. is now helping poor people by creating useless jobs. So high population growth won't result in cheap work force. Govt. is now imposing more direct and indirect taxes on middle class people to create jobs for lower class people. But if Govt. don't help them then NGOs will brainwash them by distributing peanut money. Illiterate and poor people have more children than middle class. Their population growth will cause more burden to middle class.