Cold Start: A Pakistani perspective

[Bhadra]

I am a new member on the Forum and tried to decipher this so called cold war doctrine as contained in the thread. Many posts were interesting as also hilarious.

To my mind, the doctrine, if at all, is the product of whatever happened in past and is a humble attempt to evolve a military method to gain an advantage vis a vis Pakistani Military.

The Strategic mindset had to completely undergo a natural change in the sub continent after 1998 when both the countries went nuclear. It increased the risk taking propensity of Pakisani Generals resulting they launching Kargil Operation. Kargil Operation was launched under a nuclear overhang with the premise that it would remain limited and would not result in a full blown war. Kargil operation fully established that there was scope for limited conventional operations even under nuclear overhang.

All four wars otherwise demonstrated that:

It was absolutely imperative for Pakistani Military to launch preemptive strikes into Indian Territory to take advantages of slow Indian mobilization as also to offset their lack of depth to their vital areas as a matter of operational necessity.

Pakistan has not been successful ever to gain their objectives by means of military force, be it 1948 or latest Kargil. Indian Army demonstrated four times their ability to offset any initial advantage Pakistani Military may gain at the start of the War. However, intervention by international community proved an hindrance for India taking advantages of its capability to prolong war.

Pakistan in the meanwhile successfully evolved and executed their terrorism based proxy war against India and more so under nuclear overhang or while brandishing their nuclear capability.

In this backdrop, if Indians were to decide use of military means to deter this continued proxy war, then how could it be done.

The line of thinking perhaps is that:

In Pakistan the center of gravity is its " military machine" which needs to have threats of its being drawn to battles and being defeated. As economic, political, diplomatic and other means are likely to fail in deterring this military machine from using terrorism as means of state policy, more so while brandishing another terror weapon – nuclear bomb, use of military machine by India still remains a viable option.

Unacceptable attrition still remains a viable means of deterring Pak Military.

If Indian Military is required to be used as a viable option, then –

Mobilization advantages of Pakistani Military be offset. Strike first, strike fast and strike with viable Force.

Pakistan must be attacked at as many broadly spread points, say eight to ten spread from North to South to make them react every where thereby weakening application of reserves and making then unbalanced. It May also open gaps for further application of larger forces.

Further application of larger forces then be carried out at own choosing and time in sequential manner like an expanding torrent to draw in maximum Pakistani reserves for destruction.

Strategic Forces of Pakistan should be forces to applied in piecemeal and spitted and thereby be destroyed in detail.

Gain military advantage as quickly as possible before the nuclear threshold is crossed or international community or China intervenes for which a strong dissuasive posture would be adequate.

While undertaking this, be ready for a full blown war. Rapidly destroy Pakistani Forces and then switch over to North and East if threatened there.

From a small beginning retain ability to escalate application of conventional forces till Pakistan comes to the terms.

Capture of territory only to draw Pakistani Forces. Main aim always should be destruction of the Forces while avoiding population. However, end the war inside Pakistan.

If such were the basic postulation, how this could be achieved under operational art is what Indian Forces may be trying to achieve. One may call it cold start or by any other name.

The sole idea is that Pakistan must pay for their acts of terrorism, in Karchi, Baluchistan, NWFP if not on the battle field for which Indian Military should be ready as one of the means.

Not necessarily first means, as many Pakistanis think as they ask as to why military was not applied after Bombay attack. I think Bombay attack will be answered with adequate compounded interest.

All actions of Indian Military is being directed towards it as is available in the open source such as from firing of Prahar to acquiring Globe Masters or Eurofighters etc.

The above note as culled form the "open source" (including Col Ahmad Ali of IDSA) is very generic based on my understanding. However, it would entail a Herculean effort to put it on ground to be executed and durected from Delhi. There are no short cuts I believe.

But it will be, even if in half measure, it should be successful as Pakistanis would also be half measured to face it. But this time around it is not going to be another riot.

 

[sayareakd]

Cold start will be activated if another major terrorist attack happen against India (with connivance or without connivance of GOP and its agencies, which is originated from Pakistan).

now if that happen and cold start is put into operation, what options Pakistan has, given the latest test NASR missile/rocket or what ever it is, even for second assuming that Pakistan which has not tested its tactical small nukes so far (its existence is highly doubtful) would raise the stake and fire tactical nukes, inside Pakistan territory against Indian armor attack.

Will GOP/PA would sit back and wait for Indian answer and try to justify the nuke attack as defending its territory and all the nonsense and crap, with the fact that Indian forces are practicing operating under limited nuclear attack for last 10-15 years.

Given the fact that Indian nuclear doctrine says that " Nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere; (iii) Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage."

so for this stupidity of allowing the terrorist to attack India with or without support from GOP or its agencies and later on raising the stake, Pakistan would first nukes its own territory and then it will take massive counter strike from India, which will cause unacceptable damage to Pakistan.

I really wonder, if people, who are in power and decision making in Pakistan have sane head or they are too much living the disgrace and humiliation of East Pakistan. PA to justify its existence wont want peace with India, that is understandable, but nuke attack is of different level.

It has happen earlier too when Pakistan under Mushi started Kargil war, when war happens it is not in control of any one, it will take its own direction. Just hope thing wont go this far as i said above, nukes are horrible weapon to be used in anger. Let some sane people come to power in Pakistan then having some beautiful puppet with strings in hands of PA/ISI.

 

[Bhadra]

Cold start will be activated if another major terrorist attack happen against India (with connivance or without connivance of GOP and its agencies, which is originated from Pakistan).

Cold start as a doctrines, if it exists at all, and what ever is discussed in open sources has to be a war fighting doctine and not a reaction doctrine. What it means that Indian Military will commence operations and conduct war against Pakistan to attain an objective as and when GOI decided to use Miltary force as an option. The reason for that could be any and not only a terrorist strike. This option may be ubdertaken well two years after attack. So do not mix up it essentially with a response machanism. That is what I make of the word doctrine.

now if that happen and cold start is put into operation, what options Pakistan has, given the latest test NASR missile/rocket or what ever it is, even for second assuming that Pakistan which has not tested its tactical small nukes so far (its existence is highly doubtful) would raise the stake and fire tactical nukes, inside Pakistan territory against Indian armor attack.

Firstlly, in a nuclear overhang, Indian Military would be ready to absobe such a strike and fight through it. Secondly, such an attack can be preempted in view of stated policy of Pakistan. Thirdly, which nation would like to be branded as initiator of nuclear war when the conventional forces are barlly 20 to 30 km inside the border. This at best appers to be a risky bluff.

Will GOP/PA would sit back and wait for Indian answer and try to justify the nuke attack as defending its territory and all the nonsense and crap, with the fact that Indian forces are practicing operating under limited nuclear attack for last 10-15 years.

I do not think GOP or GHQ would not survive to sit back and think having launched a nuclear strike.

Given the fact that Indian nuclear doctrine says that " Nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere; (iii) Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage."

All doctrines have inbuilt flexibilities. It has to be modified as per situation.

so for this stupidity of allowing the terrorist to attack India with or without support from GOP or its agencies and later on raising the stake, Pakistan would first nukes its own territory and then it will take massive counter strike from India, which will cause unacceptable damage to Pakistan.

That is why the cold start is expected to work well.

I really wonder, if people, who are in power and decision making in Pakistan have sane head or they are too much living the disgrace and humiliation of East Pakistan. PA to justify its existence wont want peace with India, that is understandable, but nuke attack is of different level.

History has proved that Pakistani Generals have high risk taking tendencies, are filled with wrong notions about themselves and their Army. They have proved that they can also be insane as they proved theselves vis a vis Bangladesh and now with respect to Afghanistan. They can be irrational as in Kargil. So nothing much is expected. They all are very eager for Sahadat.

It has happen earlier too when Pakistan under Mushi started Kargil war, when war happens it is not in control of any one, it will take its own direction. Just hope thing wont go this far as i said above, nukes are horrible weapon to be used in anger. Let some sane people come to power in Pakistan then having some beautiful puppet with strings in hands of PA/ISI.

Insha Allaha. But rember that the spirit behind Pakistan, Alama Iqbal beutifully descibed the psyche of the nation while praising a mountain Falcon (shaheen ) thus:

"Jhapatna, Palatna, Palat Kar Jhapatna
Lahoo Garam Rakhne Ka Hai Ek Bahana"

Strike, retraet, strike after retreat is only an excuse for the warming up the blood (strike India, retreat, say sorry and then strike again is only an excuse to keep country alive)

The fanatics in the country have been moulded in that psyche. History also proves the same. It is unfortunate. India can only answer in the language of the same Ilam Iqbal:

"yūnān-o-miṣr-o-romā sab miṭ gaʾe jahāñ se
ab tak magar hai bāqī nām-o-nishāñ hamārā"

They can not achieve their gaol ever !!

 

[sant]

We have to create Kargil like situation to pakis and test their will power.

 

[Yusuf]

We have to create Kargil like situation to pakis and test their will power.

Why will we engage them in a "kargil" when we are thinking big with cold start?

 

[DivineHeretic]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

We desperately need the capability to fire the next gen precision GPS/Glonass guided rounds from our artillery guns, especially so in the mountains where LGBs are difficult to use given the fog/cloud cover surrounding the heights. It would also allow us to use our ammunition more efficiently, unlike in kargil where the IA had to lay down 50000 tons of artillery rounds to take tiger hill. Such precision rounds would IMHO reduce our pressure on our logistics lines, making them available for supporting the infantry who are usually the most vulnerable to supply lines being cut.

 

[rock127]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

We desperately need the capability to fire the next gen precision GPS/Glonass guided rounds from our artillery guns, especially so in the mountains where LGBs are difficult to use given the fog/cloud cover surrounding the heights. It would also allow us to use our ammunition more efficiently, unlike in kargil where the IA had to lay down 50000 tons of artillery rounds to take tiger hill. Such precision rounds would IMHO reduce our pressure on our logistics lines, making them available for supporting the infantry who are usually the most vulnerable to supply lines being cut.

Did you mean 50,000 rounds or tons??

We used about 1.5 lakh total rounds in Kargil I guess.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

Did you mean 50,000 rounds or tons??

We used about 1.5 lakh total rounds in Kargil I guess.

Am not sure, I read it somewhere but cant find it now. Either way it Goes to show the problems faced by gunners and the sheer logistics nightmare. The IA used over 250000 shells in Kargil.
If one Stallion were to carry 5-6 tons, you'd need a thousand truck convoy to transport the rounds alone. Add to that the trucks carrying the guns itself ( IA used a three hunderd guns on Tiger Hill itself), and then the trucks carrying the troops into the staging grounds, and finally the supply trucks for them, and you have a hundred mile long convoy moving slowly through the most difficult terrain in the world.
I don't know exactly the number of bunkers the Pak army had set up in tiger hill, but for sake lets assume an insane number of 100. Now with guided munitions, lets assume the accuracy of the rounds was 20%( a very very conservative assesment). It would take 500 rounds to have all positions turn to graves. Now a round weighs 50kg-75kg (155mm 52cal). So the net load required would be 25 tons. Or about 10-12 trucks, when taking into account the space limitations on the stallion.

I cant speak for the others, but I definately would prefer the 2nd option.

 

[rock127]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

Am not sure, I read it somewhere but cant find it now. Either way it Goes to show the problems faced by gunners and the sheer logistics nightmare. The IA used over 250000 shells in Kargil.
If one Stallion were to carry 5-6 tons, you'd need a thousand truck convoy to transport the rounds alone. Add to that the trucks carrying the guns itself ( IA used a three hunderd guns on Tiger Hill itself), and then the trucks carrying the troops into the staging grounds, and finally the supply trucks for them, and you have a hundred mile long convoy moving slowly through the most difficult terrain in the world.

I don't know exactly the number of bunkers the Pak army had set up in tiger hill, but for sake lets assume an insane number of 100. Now with guided munitions, lets assume the accuracy of the rounds was 20%( a very very conservative assesment). It would take 500 rounds to have all positions turn to graves. Now a round weighs 50kg-75kg (155mm 52cal). So the net load required would be 25 tons. Or about 10-12 trucks, when taking into account the space limitations on the stallion.

I cant speak for the others, but I definately would prefer the 2nd option.

Yeah...we didn't have ammo/guns initially and the transportation and logistics was slow which caused this war stretched to almost 3 months.

I think now we have substantial amount of ammo/guns stationed there so at least we can expect no delay like before in case Pakis tries any misadventure again.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

Yeah...we didn't have ammo/guns initially and the transportation and logistics was slow which caused this war stretched to almost 3 months.

I think now we have substantial amount of ammo/guns stationed there so at least we can expect no delay like before in case Pakis tries any misadventure again.

Full scale war will be a completely different scenario altogether. If we are to act as the invaders and not as the defenders, it will be imperative that enough firepower is available with the mobile formations. The logistics organisation in this case will change completely. It is much more difficult to supply the frontline troops using truck convoys several kilometers long, something that eventually broke the back of the Afrika Corps.

 

[Kunal Biswas]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

Even in defensive war, India play-out offensive role in short burst of counter attacks that goes deep inside enemy thrust hard and fast..

A towed arty specially on a truck of 6x6 would be very handy in such offensives..

Full scale war will be a completely different scenario altogether. If we are to act as the invaders and not as the defenders, it will be imperative that enough firepower is available with the mobile formations. The logistics organisation in this case will change completely. It is much more difficult to supply the frontline troops using truck convoys several kilometers long, something that eventually broke the back of the Afrika Corps.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

Even in defensive war, India play-out offensive role in short burst of counter attacks that goes deep inside enemy thrust hard and fast..

Thats where the problem arises. Deep penetrating attacks leave long,narrow passages to the frontline troops. This compounds the problems faced by supply convoys, and the fighting forces at the spearhead. The narrow corridors can be cut, choking off frontlines of supplies. the supply convoy, which could be tens of kilometers long, is foced into a narrow passage making routes predictable and thus open to large scale ambush.
Now multiply this problem by 8, i.e. the number of IBGs and you have a very flamable mix of factors, spread over 8-10 narrow passages throughout the western border. This is why cold start is so risky, I preferred gen. Sundarjee better. Improvements to his concepts should have preceeded implementation of the CSD.

 

[sayareakd]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

i have plan where they attack with all their Prithvi missile and brahmos missile at the same time. Then cold start.

 

[Shirman]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

^^^^^^^^^^^ Add Agni-1, Shaurya n Prahaar 2 the above list..........

 

[sayareakd]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

if we have 300 prithvi missiles then lets use it at the very first opportunity.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

i have plan where they attack with all their Prithvi missile and brahmos missile at the same time. Then cold start.

Brahmos maybe, Prithvi- absolutely not. Pak side has no way of confirming if a ballistic missile is carrying nuclear warheads, or for that matter even the likely ldestination of the missile. In the worst case, they'd rush to the nearest nuclear red button and commit suicide.

But seriously, war is as much about economics, as much about actual fighting. Munitions/ missiles are selected on a cost-benefit analysis, and the overall expenditure the govt can maintain for the envisaged war period. This is particularly true for tactical targets.
We cant use the brahmos with its $2million tag to destroy a bunker or MG/mortar post. It might get the job done, but would ultimately be too expensive. It would be economic suicide. Not to mention that the warhead payload is about 300kg for a brahmos, limiting its role as an area denial weapon( cluster carrier), or for that matter be used to supress a large formation.

 

[Kunal Biswas]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

I dont think its an issue, Specially when you have training and experience of doing the same in these terrains, Indian Army did this kind of ops in 1948,65 and 71 during counter attacks, during those days the issue were even bad coz the trucks were small and guns were big ( 5.5inch ) now the situation is better..


Lots of your question will be answered here..

Thats where the problem arises. Deep penetrating attacks leave long,narrow passages to the frontline troops. This compounds the problems faced by supply convoys, and the fighting forces at the spearhead. The narrow corridors can be cut, choking off frontlines of supplies. the supply convoy, which could be tens of kilometers long, is foced into a narrow passage making routes predictable and thus open to large scale ambush.Now multiply this problem by 8, i.e. the number of IBGs and you have a very flamable mix of factors, spread over 8-10 narrow passages throughout the western border. This is why cold start is so risky, I preferred gen. Sundarjee better. Improvements to his concepts should have preceeded implementation of the CSD.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Re: DRDO 155mm Artillery Program

I dont think its an issue, Specially when you have training and experience of doing the same in these terrains, Indian Army did this kind of ops in 1948,65 and 71 during counter attacks, during those days the issue were even bad coz the trucks were small and guns were big ( 5.5inch ) now the situation is better..


Lots of your question will be answered here..

Thanks for the vid. Its great to be able to learn something new everyday. But there is a still a concern that exists IMHO.
The early assaults were led by entire Corps, thats over 60,000 troops at the miinimum cutting into Pak, and that too over a wide length of the border, like in 1965,71. This allowed a huge area to be taken and ensured secure supply lines.

In the current day, the IA with its Cold start envisages deep penetration by IBGs, 10,000-15,000 strong. This narrows the area of engagement as the IA will maintain higher density of troops/equipment to establish local area superiority in firepower and troop and equipment count. This was observed during the desert storm2 as well, when the USMC made a blitzkrieg through narrow corridors, evading larger hostile positions in an attempt to reach Baghdad.
After the war, several commentators made the comment that the Iraqis could have simply attacked the supply lines, which were stretched and poorly defended and stall the offensive. A similar problem was faced by the Germans during their blitzkrieg through France, when A flanking counter attack by the French nearly cut the supply lines and stalled the offensive for a short while.

These problems are the biggest hurdle to implementation of CSD, but is something the SPG should be able to solve, if in effective numbers, like the Germans did, using their guns to force the flanking attack to break.

 

[Decklander]

A strategy is made after considering all the worst scenerios. It is not a childs play. The IBG will move with very heavt arty and air support. The flanks of these IBGs will be very well protected by attack helos and quick reation teams. Also, the main assault force will still be the Strike corps, for each IBG, we will have two dicisions in reserve as part of these pivot corps to ensure that there are no surprises. Finally, CSD is Pak specific. PA is deployed in an offensice defence postute, which means majority of them are located closer to border. A successful breakthru by couple of IBGs and subsequent pincer move will end up encircling a very large force of PA which can be completely obliterated or made to surrender. The problem is for Pak and not for India. Pls do not get confused with WW2 incidents as Pak does not have that kind of depth and we Indians don't need to over run Pak to make it break up.

 

[Vishwarupa]

India airlifts military hospital to Tajikistan to strengthen geo-strategic footprint in Central Asia
India airlifts military hospital to Tajikistan to strengthen geo-strategic footprint in Central Asia - The Times of India

With India airlifting the military hospital to Tajikstan, India will surely have some defense equipment & wil have some covert operation running from that region. Will this have any strategic relevance to CSD against pakistan.

My question is Will Indian forces attack pakistan(surprise attack) from base in Tajikistan during CSD operations against pakistan. Or will this be used for covert operation only.