Brexit, EU referendum

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by Screambowl, Jun 24, 2016.

  1. Tactical Frog

    Tactical Frog Senior Member Senior Member

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    UK - EU talks aren’t doing great. Might end with UK not getting any special status, unlike Norway or Switzerland
     
  2. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    If they go forward with Brexit the UK aerospace sector will be gutted. Airbus controls 15,000 jobs directly and 7,000 through the Bombardier acquisition that are all located in UK. The tariff rate being outside the single market will not make it viable for Airbus to keep business there.
     
  3. tarunraju

    tarunraju Sanathan Pepe Moderator

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    Airbus too will be gutted (at least long enough for Boeing to unassailably grow at its expense). Airbus' entire widebody product lineup relies on Rolls-Royce Trent engines (A330neo, A350XWB, and A380*).

    *A380 has a GE+P&W engine option called the GP7270, but it has tons of reliability issues and long term costs.
     
  4. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    Rolls-Royce is a supplier the same as GE and PW, it is not a part of the Airbus family.
     
  5. tarunraju

    tarunraju Sanathan Pepe Moderator

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    Without RR Trent supply, Airbus's entire widebody production line will grind to a halt for 1-2 years till they can modify their products for other engines (a straight $30 billion revenue loss). You have to redesign the pylons, the fuel lines, the avionics, EICAS, etc., for each A330neo, and A350XWB, and each of their modifications. It's all a colossal bitch. A330Ceo (which supports GE CF6 and PW-4000 engines) has wholesomely lost its competitive edge to Boeing 787 Dreamliner; A350 was largely designed around exclusivity to the Trent XWB engine. A380's second engine option, the GP7270, is a shitty one, and even Emirates is washing its hands off it (latest orders all have RR engines).

    RR makes bulletproof and idiotproof engines that last up to 3 decades in the right hands.
     
  6. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    I am still trying to figure out why you think RR would stop selling engines to its biggest client? Whatever tariffs are placed on it would simply be paid the same as GE and PW. The reason Airbus would close down UK production is that it doesn't want to pay tariffs to import its own parts.
     
  7. tarunraju

    tarunraju Sanathan Pepe Moderator

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    You brought up the premise of the British aerospace industry collapsing as a consequence of Brexit. I pointed out that Airbus will collapse with it. I'm trying to say that British aerospace industry will be unaffected by Brexit because there's mutually-assured destruction in store between British and EU companies in that particular industry. They're too intertwined at the moment.

    All the Trent XWB and Trent 7000 engines on the production line bound for Airbus can be redirected to Boeing as Trent 1000 (since they're all based on the common RR TEN core architecture), Boeing can ramp up 787 manufacturing, and that will be the end of Airbus widebody.

    The A320 narrow-body family already has a looming threat in the rumored Boeing 797 Globalizer (narrow-body aircraft with 5000 nmi range), while new 737 MAX holds fort.
     
  8. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    I said it would be gutted, I didn't say it would cease to exist.
    Widebody isn't even a large segment of the order book. The A380 is the biggest order Rolls-Royce has and if the Emirates hadn't placed the emergency order it was going to be shut down. That in and of itself would have gutted Rolls-Royce and if the A380 doesn't get anymore orders, it will be over as soon as the last are delivered in 2020.

    Boeing has a competing product for everything except our newly acquired 51% stake in Bombardier which we got for free because of Boeing being protectionist a-holes. Now they want to purchase Embraer but Saab says if they do it they will cancel the Gripen sale to Brasil.
     
  9. tarunraju

    tarunraju Sanathan Pepe Moderator

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    A330neo and A350XWB dwarf A380 orders, and Airbus has over 450 in its order book for those ($130 billion at 70% of list price). Both planes have RR Trent as the only engine option. A single Trent XWB-79B (the default/only engine for the A350-900) costs 1.5x that of the Trent 970, which powers A380. So no, RR was immune to the A380 going belly up.
     
  10. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    It doesn't matter to RR what the value is of the Airbus orderbook, it matters what they are getting paid for their engines and the Emirati order for Trent 900 is the largest order ever received worth $9.2 billion. The engines they provided have suffered catastrophic failures due to low quality manufacturing and repairs cost them a billion dollars.
     
  11. indiatester

    indiatester Senior Member Senior Member

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    Brexit is important enough to deserve a thread.

    UK's industry is going to be impacted and so will its standing in the world as an open society.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...british-finance-out-in-the-cold-idUSKCN1NK1L4
    WORLD NEWS
    NOVEMBER 15, 2018 / 5:26 PM / UPDATED 25 MINUTES AGO
    Brexit accord leaves British finance out in the cold

    Sinead Cruise, Huw Jones, Andrew MacAskill
    3 MIN READ


    LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s financial services greeted the news of a draft Brexit agreement with weariness and worry on Thursday, citing multiple hurdles the government must overcome before they can Brexit-proof their industry.


    An investment manager, in the office of Aberdeen Standard Investments, watches his screen as Britain's Prime Minister, Theresa May, delivers a statement to the House of Commons, in London, Britain November 15, 2018. REUTERS/Simon Dawson
    Shares in blue-chip banks tumbled after British Brexit Minister Dominic Raab resigned to protest the agreement with the European Union, saying it presented a “very real threat to the integrity” of the UK. Three other ministers followed suit.


    News of the resignations - which threaten the survival of Theresa May’s government - pushed UK banking shares even further into the red.

    Shares in Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS.L) were trading down 7.3 percent by 1013 GMT, their biggest one-day fall since the June 2016 referendum. Barclays (BARC.L) and Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) dropped 6 percent each.


    But even before Raab’s resignation, the industry found little to celebrate in the draft plan May’s cabinet agreed. The plan gives UK banks, insurers and asset managers limited access to European financial markets after a transition period that starts in March and is due to end in December 2020.

    Such an arrangement, a regulatory framework known as equivalence, would give Britain access to the EU similar to that of major U.S. and Japanese firms, while tying it to many EU finance rules for years to come.

    Industry leaders, including John McFarlane, the outgoing Chairman of Barclays and lobby group CityUK, had hoped policymakers could negotiate an “enhanced equivalence” relationship between the UK’s financial industry and the EU.

    UK's May prepares to reveal her draft Brexit deal
    But the 568-page document gave little grounds for optimism that such an alliance - offering greater access and tighter safeguards against a sudden loss of rights - could be forged.

    “We are not going to get anything more than the U.S. gets. The only addition is that equivalence can be applied for in the transition period, fast tracked,” said a U.S. investment bank official based in London.

    “We don’t really figure in any of this. The deal is all about solving the Irish question and customs union,” the official said. “The rest of it is about divergence and competitiveness for services. Raab has resigned. It all feels very knife edge.”

    Reporting by Sinead Cruise, Huw Jones, Andrew MacAskill, Lawrence White and Iain Withers
     
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  12. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    Threads merged.
    Members are requested to check for existing threads before opening new ones.
     
  13. indiatester

    indiatester Senior Member Senior Member

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    This thread seemed to be dedicated for the referendum and has been inactive for months.
     
  14. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    Adding this here for its impact in due course:

    Theresa May

    [​IMG]

    She married Philip May in September 1980. Her father died in a car accident in 1981 and her mother of multiple sclerosis the following year.May later stated she was "sorry they [her parents] never saw me elected as a Member of Parliament" ... May has expressed regret that she and her husband were not able to have children.



    [​IMG]

    What she is being made to go through and the images and names she is being called. Terrible when the British ought to group together and be one. Really shocked and in a way, not surprised in what the British are doing and saying and not acting together. She ought to be fully supported ... No question on why EU is not accommodating and why others run away etc etc etc.

    A woman that is taking the strength to carry on. What a story. The things she has been called and made to go through and her moves and reactions. A true shakti !!

    Some will say the same for Angela Merkel - but is it the same ... the Greek crisis.

    EU is a failed experiment ... ? Who is the leader of EU ? Same approach taken for Green Crisis ? The United Kingdom and Northern Ireland and United Kingdom Overseas Territories is a failed experiment ... ? ... Is it more about colonialism. The British independence (ironic) - someone said they have only 9 days of food and dependent on others ... Exciting fascinating times we live in. The Greek Crisis had a point of no return yet it was made to have a sudden stop (no one talks about it anymore) ... If she stays the course ... she will be known forever and for history. God Bless Theresa May from the people of Bharat !! JAI HIND
     
  15. ezsasa

    ezsasa Senior Member Veteran Member Senior Member

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    This woman had single handedly derailed our negotiations with EU on free trade agreement, this was pre-brexit.

    No sympathies required for her from us.
     
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  16. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    Learned friend such are things are much deeper to one can see.

    May the wicked become good, may the good realise peace, may the peaceful be released from all bondage, and may the released redeem others

    The common word(s) is May ... that’s what many see. But what’s behind and it’s deeper meaning. Some also say the Kohinoor gives Shakti to woman ... what will happen after the Queen. Why only UK what about EU ...
     
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  17. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    The British (England) excluding wales, northern Ireland, whoever, whatever islands etc etc etc must be observing and doing fine data analysis

    What careful thoughts and words and debates in the legislative legislature. The legislature is supreme. The no confidence motion on the excecutive throw in. May is playing it for herself but the British ? Even the EU sovereign states ?

    For example who is supporting the withdrawal and confusion and non withdrawal by way of withdrawal. Chinese taste buds perhaps

    Who would benefit from weaker England and even weaker European Union. Stronger European Union and weaker England. Broken up England and broken up Eu. A weaker European Union whatever. Whatever ways. Yummy Chinese food anyone.

    A fighting amongst but the trade and connect was meant to show and inspire obedience of the manufacturing hub.

    The British need to rekindle and grow some balls and it’s always a woman that can make them see the light. Albeit bit to late some will say. Whatever is the cause and stimulants. Do it with some balls and righteousness. The light in the darkness. Fight that battle.

    Hence the British are doing some introspective introspection... it’s what they fought for (no comments). The British owned and made.

    It’s their own creation and masterplay ... a play on a market place a trade dynamics. declare to the world British are in fact (whatever it’s small size) sovereign and can make payment in Sterling pound and kind ... the legislature of the British.

    Hong Kong Special Administation Region:

    Hong Kong Constitution

    Hong Kong Basic Law

    Article 68

    The ultimate aim is the election of all the members of the Legislative Council by universal suffrage.

    There is a lot of money being thrown in and around brexit to make certain sections weaker and unstable. A certain sovereign country is doing it perhaps without appreciating its full circumstances (not Bharat). The role of Bharat is always at a much higher levels. Watching out now how and who bring up the above on to the table.

    For the PRC ... They can join the dots on their own. I’m sure they know. Sun Tzu ? What they done is more like Aah Chu. Bharat being there and telling them at this time whatever it is the moment will be recorded in history stood up for righteousness. Bharat could have stayed away easily. But Bharat is not like 62 also and a unnacouned aggressor looking for access’s Prc can do whatever it wants now and best is that it knows the right way and wrong way. The hard way and easy way. Choose wisely.

    And British food ... they can cook it well once in 99 years

    Fascinating times we live in.
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2019

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