Brace For Darker Days Ahead

[Yusuf]

If the rupee is not devalued, it may again lead to a balance of payments crises, just like in 1991. I'm no economist, but here are some recent articles in major newspapers all calling for devaluation to manage the crisis:

Confronting the crisis

Business Line : Opinion / Columns : Allow the rupee to depreciate

With nearly $300 billion reserves and also large gold reserves I don't see balance of payment crisis.

Quoting commie papers will not help. They find gloom everywhere.

 

[Bangalorean]

I have maintained for a long time that economic development is the solution to all problems facing India. People laugh at me for it, some call me a middle-class elitist without knowledge of India's realities. But if one looks at it dispassionately, it is apparent that I am right. In the early 90s, India was in its worst possible state. There were insurgencies in Kashmir, Punjab, NE, etc. Communal tension was at an all time high. Tensions such as cauvery dispute were violent. There were protests against KFC in Bangalore by pro-Kannada groups - things were gloomy. Most of these problems are behind us today.

I don't care whether it is BJP or Congress or Modi or Rahul, as long as economic progress happens. As things stand, Rahul and the Congress will not deliver economic growth to us in the near future, that much is clear. After 2002, people called Modi a demon and predicted that he will be kicked out. On the contrary, due to a single-minded focus on economy, even Muslims vote for him en masse in Gujarat.

I reiterate - growing economic development and prosperity will solve all our problems. It is indeed that simple.

 

[ersakthivel]

If the rupee is not devalued, it may again lead to a balance of payments crises, just like in 1991. I'm no economist, but here are some recent articles in major newspapers all calling for devaluation to manage the crisis:

Confronting the crisis

Business Line : Opinion / Columns : Allow the rupee to depreciate

Businesline always glorifies China's economy and sneer's at india's economy as far as I remember. Indian economy will continue to grow for a couple of decades like China did because India is also reaping the demography dividend i.e the number of young people and the percentage of workforce in population is very high.
China had the same situation couple of decades back and used it to power it's economy. Now with rapidly aging population thanks to the strict one child policy china is slowing down.

 

[Yusuf]

I have maintained for a long time that economic development is the solution to all problems facing India. People laugh at me for it, some call me a middle-class elitist without knowledge of India's realities. But if one looks at it dispassionately, it is apparent that I am right. In the early 90s, India was in its worst possible state. There were insurgencies in Kashmir, Punjab, NE, etc. Communal tension was at an all time high. Tensions such as cauvery dispute were violent. There were protests against KFC in Bangalore by pro-Kannada groups - things were gloomy. Most of these problems are behind us today.

I don't care whether it is BJP or Congress or Modi or Rahul, as long as economic progress happens. As things stand, Rahul and the Congress will not deliver economic growth to us in the near future, that much is clear. After 2002, people called Modi a demon and predicted that he will be kicked out. On the contrary, due to a single-minded focus on economy, even Muslims vote for him en masse in Gujarat.

I reiterate - growing economic development and prosperity will solve all our problems. It is indeed that simple.

I too keep stressing that point. Add education. Well education and development go hand in hand. If everyone has work to do
Thy will not think about other destructive things

 

[Known_Unknown]

@Known_Unknown - the Congress has been as bad in terms of communal riots and polarization. Since they've held the country longer, I would hold them responsible to an even greater degree. This is a big massive lie that Congress is "secular" and BJP is "communal". I realize that you don't have much idea of India - it is usually NRIs who are clueless about ground realities who make such statements. That is why you compare Yusuf to a "Jewish Nazi". Go and tell that to the all-Muslim locality who voted for Modi, or to the Muslims who were interviewed on the ground in Gujarat, who said that they would continue to vote for Modi because all they wanted was development.

People like you are still stuck in asinine phraseology like "communal", "secular", "pseudo-secular", and so on. Muslims on the ground want development and economic prosperity. After 2002 there have been no riots in Gujarat under Modi, but there has been a lot of inclusive development.

There was an article recently about a Muslim locality in Modi's own constituency in Gujarat. You should read it, it will be an eye opener for you.

EDIT: Found it-

http://latitude.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/03/the-hardships-of-being-muslim-under-indias-modi/

Gujarat has an urban poverty ratio of almost 18 percent, compared with almost 21 percent for the country as a whole. Yet according to India's Planning Commission, a government body that draws up five-year plans for the economy, 42.4 percent of the Muslims in urban Gujarat are poor, compared with 33.9 percent of Muslims in urban India overall.

Still, Modi has opposed a national plan from 2007 to set aside 15 percent of development funds for Muslims, claiming it would threaten the "social fabric of the nation." He also has refused to implement another program that would have provided 53,000 scholarships to Muslim students in Gujarat — a state where 75 percent of school-age Muslims are enrolled in school but only 26 percent go on to finish, while 79 percent of the total school-age population is enrolled and 41 percent go on to finish.

The results of such policies are visible on the ground. Modi's own constituency of Maninagar, in the state capital of Ahmedabad, is a largely middle-class area. But in Millat Nagar, the heart of Maninagar and home to 20,000 Muslims, Modi's famed roads give way to streets full of potholes and comfortable homes to broken-down shacks.

When I first visited Millat Nagar in 2007, residents told me that about 75 percent of the houses had no drinking water and that the streetlights had not functioned in a decade. Modi had never visited this area, nor had any other member of his party.

I returned last month during the election campaign for the state assembly. The area hadn't changed much, except for some work on roads and sewers started by the few Muslims from the area who had been elected on a Congress ticket in municipal elections in 2011. Still, by focusing on everyone but Muslims — who account for only 8 percent of the vote in Maninagar — Modi won 77 percent of the vote in his constituency.

Modi and the B.J.P. also won 47 percent of ballots in all of Gujarat, securing 115 of the 182 seats in the state legislature. Not one of the B.J.P.'s candidates was Muslim, even though almost 10 percent of Gujarat's population is Muslim.

A comprehensive 2011 report of government data by Abusaleh Shariff, who was chief economist of the National Council of Applied Economic Research for more than 15 years, concludes that Muslims in Gujarat "fare poorly on parameters of poverty, hunger, education and vulnerability on security issues — nowhere benefiting from the feel-good growth story" painted by the current government.

When Modi argues against targeting development specifically at Muslims, it is not because he worries about destroying the social fabric by treating different groups differently. It is because such initiatives imperil his own attempts to isolate Muslims in Gujarat.

What are Muslims in Gujarat supposed to do but praise Modi when interviewed? Do they want to get beat up or murdered? Modi controls Gujarat like his own personal fiefdom. Have you heard of the Sohrabuddin fake encounter case and how Amit Shah, Modi's right hand man and the senior-most minister in his cabinet was found to be personally involved? What about that woman minister who was convicted and sentenced to life for her part in the riots? Just a few days ago Modi welcomed a gun-toting former MP from the Congress who has several criminal cases against him into the state BJP.

Why do educated intellectuals like yourself feel that master manipulators like Modi are the only solution to the massive problems facing the country?

If you really want to talk development, Nitish Kumar's Bihar has done far better than Gujarat and NK personally is honest, educated and does not incite one section of society against another in a bid to get votes.

Look at the number of communal riots and religious killings in places like UP and WB under the smug auspices of hypocrites like Mamata and Mulayam. The bottomline is that economic development is the only thing that matters. Nothing else matters. When economic development and prosperity increase, communal riots will decrease, religious fights will decrease. When economic development and progress comes to places like WB and UP, communal riots will decrease there too, but all the best in having economic development under people like Mamata and Mulayam.

The difference is that in one Gujarat, those killings were carried out by the active connivance of the government in power. You elect a government to govern, not to collaborate with murderous mobs to hunt you down and kill you.

Communal riots will not decrease by magic-they will decrease only if communal parties like the BJP and their murderous kar sevaks are kept out of power and their wings clipped as far as possible.

 

[Known_Unknown]

With nearly $300 billion reserves and also large gold reserves I don't see balance of payment crisis.

Quoting commie papers will not help. They find gloom everywhere.

$300 billion is only good for 6 months worth of imports. Check the data and facts presented-it is easy to be dismissive, hard to express constructive disagreement.

 

[Yusuf]

$300 billion is only good for 6 months worth of imports. Check the data and facts presented-it is easy to be dismissive, hard to express constructive disagreement.

India is not stagnant. The reserves are being replenished.

The US has about $150 billion and UK even less. I think they should quickly devalue heir currency to avert balance of payment crisis.

 

[JBH22]

There was an article recently about a Muslim locality in Modi's own constituency in Gujarat. You should read it, it will be an eye opener for you.

What are Muslims in Gujarat supposed to do but praise Modi when interviewed? Do they want to get beat up or murdered? Modi controls Gujarat like his own personal fiefdom. Have you heard of the Sohrabuddin fake encounter case and how Amit Shah, Modi's right hand man and the senior-most minister in his cabinet was found to be personally involved? What about that woman minister who was convicted and sentenced to life for her part in the riots? Just a few days ago Modi welcomed a gun-toting former MP from the Congress who has several criminal cases against him into the state BJP.

Please read this again doesnt make sense to me

Why do educated intellectuals like yourself feel that master manipulators like Modi are the only solution to the massive problems facing the country?

If you really want to talk development, Nitish Kumar's Bihar has done far better than Gujarat and NK personally is honest, educated and does not incite one section of society against another in a bid to get votes.

Why the secular educated creature is more incline to get Congress in power even if the bigotry is more evident.
Who plays communal politics is well evidence and documented.

The difference is that in one Gujarat, those killings were carried out by the active connivance of the government in power. You elect a government to govern, not to collaborate with murderous mobs to hunt you down and kill you.

Communal riots will not decrease by magic-they will decrease only if communal parties like the BJP and their murderous kar sevaks are kept out of power and their wings clipped as far as possible.

I suggest you take your double standard somewhere else it might be better infront of some leftist or foreign audience

 

[Known_Unknown]

India is not stagnant. The reserves are being replenished.

The US has about $150 billion and UK even less. I think they should quickly devalue heir currency to avert balance of payment crisis.

I'm not aware of the forex reserve requirement in the UK, but the US doesn't even need a reserve. They control the US$ and thereby, the global economy.

 

[Bangalorean]

Communal riots will not decrease by magic-they will decrease only if communal parties like the BJP and their murderous kar sevaks are kept out of power and their wings clipped as far as possible.

If you think that all the responsibility for all communal riots lies on the head of the "Kar Sevaks", you are just a deluded NRI with no idea of the ground reality in India.

Communal riots will vanish with increasing economic prosperity, if the demographics remain the same as they are currently. If the demographics and population distribution remains the same as it is now, all you need to curb communal riots is economic growth and development. Gujarat is the best example.

 

[Splurgenxs]

There was an article recently about a Muslim locality in Modi's own constituency in Gujarat. You should read it, it will be an eye opener for you.

What are Muslims in Gujarat supposed to do but praise Modi when interviewed? Do they want to get beat up or murdered? Modi controls Gujarat like his own personal fiefdom. Have you heard of the Sohrabuddin fake encounter case and how Amit Shah, Modi's right hand man and the senior-most minister in his cabinet was found to be personally involved? What about that woman minister who was convicted and sentenced to life for her part in the riots? Just a few days ago Modi welcomed a gun-toting former MP from the Congress who has several criminal cases against him into the state BJP.

Why do educated intellectuals like yourself feel that master manipulators like Modi are the only solution to the massive problems facing the country?

If you really want to talk development, Nitish Kumar's Bihar has done far better than Gujarat and NK personally is honest, educated and does not incite one section of society against another in a bid to get votes

u make a valid point, what u fail to comprehend is the correct alternative.

Ur quick to draw the gun on Modi but u fail to mul over anything that is to do with Nitish. The same conformity bias tht most of the pro modi diaspora suffers from.

Y i chose modi is because of a slew of factors , tht wold take me forever to jot it down i have never liked writing lengthy articles.

Modi is anything but a messia who can change this nation. He cant do jack shit. What he is tho is a symbol a will tht demands economic growth; an emotional bias tht make ppl into radicals fr change and progress. Especially the Hindu majority, and as a direct result of national conformity, most Muslims as well.

Take the name of modi and see hindus and industry leaders from all walks of life pledging there investments. Modi has had a bit of luck and a lot of effort to nurture this image.and if i may be a bit candid and controversial, the godra fiasco as added to it.

The end is what satisfies me not the means , being centered in realism (albeit cus i have the luxury to do so ) i see modi as a banner under which the ultra nationalists nationalists and the liberals unite(the invertebrates i call ultra liberals are a lost cause). India has failed to create ppl who truly call it there own country as they readily prefer outside destinations.
i see it change under him.

Nitish is too malleable.

 

[Known_Unknown]

If you think that all the responsibility for all communal riots lies on the head of the "Kar Sevaks", you are just a deluded NRI with no idea of the ground reality in India.

Communal riots will vanish with increasing economic prosperity, if the demographics remain the same as they are currently. If the demographics and population distribution remains the same as it is now, all you need to curb communal riots is economic growth and development. Gujarat is the best example.

Stop the obfuscation and living in lalaland already. Who instigated the Babri masjid demolition? Who launched pogroms against Muslims in Mumbai then? Who launched murderous raids against Muslims in Gujarat? Who was responsible for the Kandhamal outrage? Who burnt an Australian priest and his two little children to death in Orissa?

These were just some of the major "headlines" in a place that is plagued by goondagardi or Hindu extremists and associated criminal elements. Hardly a year goes by without these "guardians of morality" beating up couples on Valentine's day or women for going to nightclubs or wearing what they consider to be indecent clothing.

The most dangerous thing about these incidents is that they demonstrate the growing menace of Hindu extremism. I don't know how old you are, but before the BJP swept to national prominence in the early 1990's, such incidents rarely happened. There was no VHP or Bajrang Dal and the RSS members didn't indulge in these kinds of crimes. Sure, in Mah, SS still existed, but they were politically impotent.

Violence from the minority community can always be controlled-that will never be a serious issue, but when violent extremism rears its ugly head in the majority community, that is when it becomes impossible to control-spreading like a virus and posing a danger to national unity.

 

[Known_Unknown]

@Splurgenxs Thanks, that's a novel viewpoint. I still prefer a known Devil to an unknown God though, hence my preference for RG over Modi.

 

[Coalmine]

@Known_Unknown .What do you want that hindus remain dhimmis forever? 2 bogies of Kar sevaks burned and hindus should remain quite. You are a fool to think there were no riots in India before bjp coming to prominence at national stage. Why should hindus to remain silent when hindus are converted to christian by giving them money. Heck supercool buddhist wont accept conversions. Even christian in foriegn countries wont accept the definition of secularism we are taught. You dont know anything proper about gujrat riots,or kandhamal riots . Dont serve us your bile.

 

[arnabmit]

What the article states is true secular governance. You have become so very used to minority appeasement and vote bank politics leading to polarization, that a true 'equal opportunity' & secular policy looks like communal to you.

Show me 1 policy in gujrat where muslims are being offered less than others! If the muslim community chooses to teach their kids only Islamiat in madrasa instead of science, humanities & maths like the other kids, then when they reach their education threshold and start their careers the kids of the muslim community are handicapped because wrong choices made by their individual parents! Look at missionary schools, they teach regular courses during the week & bible is taught in sunday school. They are at par with everyone else!

If you think govt should spend more to offset this dis-balance, then you are also guilty of minority appeasement. This is almost like govt subsidy of arms & ammunition for mafia goons so that their livelihood can be sustained!

There was an article recently about a Muslim locality in Modi's own constituency in Gujarat. You should read it, it will be an eye opener for you.

EDIT: Found it-

The Hardships of Being Muslim Under India's Modi - NYTimes.com



What are Muslims in Gujarat supposed to do but praise Modi when interviewed? Do they want to get beat up or murdered? Modi controls Gujarat like his own personal fiefdom. Have you heard of the Sohrabuddin fake encounter case and how Amit Shah, Modi's right hand man and the senior-most minister in his cabinet was found to be personally involved? What about that woman minister who was convicted and sentenced to life for her part in the riots? Just a few days ago Modi welcomed a gun-toting former MP from the Congress who has several criminal cases against him into the state BJP.

Why do educated intellectuals like yourself feel that master manipulators like Modi are the only solution to the massive problems facing the country?

If you really want to talk development, Nitish Kumar's Bihar has done far better than Gujarat and NK personally is honest, educated and does not incite one section of society against another in a bid to get votes.



The difference is that in one Gujarat, those killings were carried out by the active connivance of the government in power. You elect a government to govern, not to collaborate with murderous mobs to hunt you down and kill you.

Communal riots will not decrease by magic-they will decrease only if communal parties like the BJP and their murderous kar sevaks are kept out of power and their wings clipped as far as possible.

 

[arnabmit]

Kar Sevaks & Bajrang dal are as much terror outfits as Indian Mujaheddin, Maoists & Ulfa. Agreed. GoI need to prosecute all of them equally. "Equally" being the keyword here. What I don't understand is why o why do you want to give benefit of doubt to the muslim extremists and go after only hindu extremists?

Stop the obfuscation and living in lalaland already. Who instigated the Babri masjid demolition? Who launched pogroms against Muslims in Mumbai then? Who launched murderous raids against Muslims in Gujarat? Who was responsible for the Kandhamal outrage? Who burnt an Australian priest and his two little children to death in Orissa?

These were just some of the major "headlines" in a place that is plagued by goondagardi or Hindu extremists and associated criminal elements. Hardly a year goes by without these "guardians of morality" beating up couples on Valentine's day or women for going to nightclubs or wearing what they consider to be indecent clothing.

The most dangerous thing about these incidents is that they demonstrate the growing menace of Hindu extremism. I don't know how old you are, but before the BJP swept to national prominence in the early 1990's, such incidents rarely happened. There was no VHP or Bajrang Dal and the RSS members didn't indulge in these kinds of crimes. Sure, in Mah, SS still existed, but they were politically impotent.

Violence from the minority community can always be controlled-that will never be a serious issue, but when violent extremism rears its ugly head in the majority community, that is when it becomes impossible to control-spreading like a virus and posing a danger to national unity.

 

[Splurgenxs]

@Splurgenxs Thanks, that's a novel viewpoint. I still prefer a known Devil to an unknown God though, hence my preference for RG over Modi.

to do the same thing and expect different results is by definition ,madness.

@ Einstein



In my pov RG has yet to prove anything as compared to Modi or nitish. So in fact RG is an unknown devil as compared to a(comparatively) know messiah.

 

[Singh]

Good that you've come around to this point of view. Some months back you were arguing that the Congress under a Gandhi is the best possible thing to happen to India. I argued against that and told you that the Gandhis are parasites eating into the vitals of this nation. Under their direction the Congress has been bleeding India through gargantuan entitlement schemes, just to cement their vote bank and stay in power. You were vehemently arguing with me then that India has hope of progressing only if Congress takes over, and that too under a Gandhi.

Good that you've changed your point of view now.

BJP will not stop these entitlement schemes. So we are burdened with these for a few more decades.

The problem with social welfare schemes is this, they are somewhat justifiable as long as your economy is hitting close to double digit growth.

 

[JBH22]

Appeasement to none is it so difficult?

 

[Bangalorean]

Stop the obfuscation and living in lalaland already. Who instigated the Babri masjid demolition? Who launched pogroms against Muslims in Mumbai then? Who launched murderous raids against Muslims in Gujarat? Who was responsible for the Kandhamal outrage? Who burnt an Australian priest and his two little children to death in Orissa?

These were just some of the major "headlines" in a place that is plagued by goondagardi or Hindu extremists and associated criminal elements. Hardly a year goes by without these "guardians of morality" beating up couples on Valentine's day or women for going to nightclubs or wearing what they consider to be indecent clothing.

The most dangerous thing about these incidents is that they demonstrate the growing menace of Hindu extremism. I don't know how old you are, but before the BJP swept to national prominence in the early 1990's, such incidents rarely happened. There was no VHP or Bajrang Dal and the RSS members didn't indulge in these kinds of crimes. Sure, in Mah, SS still existed, but they were politically impotent.

Violence from the minority community can always be controlled-that will never be a serious issue, but when violent extremism rears its ugly head in the majority community, that is when it becomes impossible to control-spreading like a virus and posing a danger to national unity.

I am one of the biggest critics of the right wing activities, and I have popularized use of the term "cow piss connoisseurs" to refer to a certain set of right wingers who defend the indefensible when it comes to RW groups. Neither do I obfuscate, nor am I in la la land.

On the other hand, you certainly appear to be in la la land. You've come up with this list of RW goondaism/criminality. Have you noticed though, that your list is quite comprehensive? You will be hard pressed to dig out more stuff about the RW groups in India. What I was referring to was actually communal riots. Communal riots have been a regular occurrence in India from decades. Communal violence has happened in states ruled by every political party, at every period in independent India's history. Communal riots have absolutely nothing to do with whether the BJP is in power or some other party. Communal riots have decreased in India in general, due to economic progress. States that are economically backward like UP and WB, have the maximum communal riots today.

Try to understand the point I am making. For all the incidents you have listed, there is absolutely no indication that communal riots decrease when party X or party Y is in power. Communal riots decrease when economic progress is visible, and growth is constant.