After Bin Laden: Confronting the Haqqani Network

[Ray]

After Bin Laden: Confronting the Haqqani Network
by Reza Jan

Information gleaned after the killing of Osama bin Laden seems to indicate that bin Laden was much more centrally involved in running al Qaeda. Even so, his death is not a decisive blow to the network and it would be wrong to hail it as such. In fact, al Qaeda's enduring links to other militant Islamist groups in the region and the expansion of the al Qaeda-linked Haqqani Network's operational territory inside Pakistan serve to broaden the group's room to maneuver and increase its survivability........

A new report on the presence of the Haqqani Network in Kurram agency by AEI's Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War documents and analyzes this shift. For months, the Haqqani network had been working to expand its safe havens outside of North Waziristan in order to escape the constant drone attacks on its compounds, direct action raids by U.S. forces in Afghanistan, and to gain fresh means of access into Afghanistan, and particularly to Kabul. The Haqqanis were able to achieve this by helping to broker a peace deal between warring Sunni and Shia tribes in Pakistan's restive Kurram tribal agency in February 2011. By doing so, the Haqqanis received permission to shelter in Kurram and use it to transit into and out of Afghanistan. This gave the Haqqanis access to the shortest route to Kabul from anywhere in Pakistan as well as new inroads into eastern Afghanistan. Although some Pakistani Taliban spoiler groups have periodically launched attacks in the region that have called the peace deal into question, the deal for the moment still stands and the Haqqanis do not appear to have lost any of their newly-gained access in Kurram.......

The key lesson here is that the al Qaeda network, even without bin Laden, is still virulent. Its operatives continue to live among, and plot attacks with, their ideological and operational allies in other groups. The war does not end with bin Laden, or even with al Qaeda's core group in Pakistan. Its infection is now carried by numerous other groups just like the Haqqani Network, Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Pakistani Taliban and their ilk, who continue to preach, plot and act against the U.S. homeland, its forces in Afghanistan, its allies in the West, and the Pakistani state. The expansion of the Haqqani Network into Kurram is a strategic boon to al Qaeda just as much as it is to the Haqqanis, and the death of bin Laden, however satisfying, should not mask the fact that there is much work left to be done and many dangers that are yet to be tackled.

Reza Nasim Jan is the Pakistan Team Lead at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project and a co-author of the new report "The Haqqani Network in Kurram: The Regional Implications of a Growing Insurgency"

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AQ is not material.

There are many derivatives that will take the so called jihad forward.

Stephen Biddle, during a Hearing at the Congress said:

I argue below that core American interests in Afghanistan are real but narrow, and center on the security requirements of denying Afghan territory to terrorists as a base for attacking us or destabilizing Afghanistan's neighbors . These limited interests can be realized via a range of possible Afghan end states – we need not hold out for the highly ambitious political and economic development aims that the United States adopted in 2001. While desirable, these are not strictly necessary to meet our core requirements...


...of the various interests we have at stake in south Asia, its unique terrorist potential is the only one that might merit conducting or continuing a war.

http://www.cfr.org/afghanistan/long-term-goals-afghanistan-their-near-term-implications/p24938

Accepting that as true, that the core goal was 'disrupting and denying sanctuary to AQ', it is evident that the terrorists have not been disrupted, nor have they been denied their sanctuaries .

The sanctuaries are not in Afghanistan. It is in Pakistan. The statements emanating from the US before and consequent to the OBL episode indicates that the sanctuaries are in Pakistan. The Drone attacks indicate the same.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of 9/11and OBL, amongst others, found sanctuary there. as true, it is evident that the terrorists have not been disrupted, nor have they been denied their sanctuaries .

The sanctuaries are not in Afghanistan. It is in Pakistan. The statements emanating from the US before and consequent to the OBL episode indicates that the sanctuaries are in Pakistan. The Drone attacks indicate the same.

Haqqani rules the terrorist roost now.

The Americans apparently are tired and want to quit and use the killing of OBL as another of those "Mission Accomplished"s !! The appear to have lost the stomach to stay the course given their domestic worries.

1. If the US quits, will China/ Russia move in/ influence events?

2. What will be the Pakistan action once the US quits?

3. What role and influence with the terrorist organisations have on the new dispensation when the US quits?

4. Will the terrorists (Taliban) take over the Govt and what will be its relations with Pakistan?

5. If the US quits, what will be the relations equation with:

(a) Afghanistan.
(b) Pakistan.
(c) US.
(d) China.
(e) Russia.

6. What actions should India undertake to safeguard Indian interests if the US quits?

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the mastermind of 9/11and OBL, amongst others, found sanctuary there.