Time for permutations and combinations before the final games
The group stages are now in their home stretch and even now there are a few things unclear. Who will make the grade in Group B remains a question for some teams while who will finish where is a big point of interest in Group A. It is so tight that a win can take a team to the top of the group while a defeat can spiral it down to 4th spot. Find out the permutations and combinations
England's remarkable comeback in the late stages of their Group B match against West Indies has ensured they are still alive in this world cup. What it has also ensured is that the group is still wide open and could go down the wire. In a nutshell, a team like India could finish on top or could even be eliminated although Dhoni's men will have to lose by a record margin to get out now. The onus is firmly on the Bangladesh-South Africa game on Saturday and if the Bangla Tigers pull off a coup against the team that has been rampant so far and yet hate playing spin, there could be plenty of final day drama in the world cup group stages.
222 for 6 and with nearly 10 overs to go for the 25 runs required. In a normal scenario, odds would have been stacked in favour of the batting side. But, when it is West Indies batting and England bowling at Chennai, the match is never won till the final run is scored. And that is exactly what happened last night at Chepauk. With England winning the game, they have made sure they have extended their world cup campaign for at least another 4 days if not more.
Bangladesh must be bitterly disappointed to see the Windies lose from the position of strength in the match and there is nothing much they can do about it now. It is almost a case of destiny for Bangladesh. They were hoping for favours from other teams and now that it hasn't come through, their fortunes entirely revolve around the way they play on Saturday against South Africa. Agreed the Proteas have been red hot in this tournament but they did slip up against spin at Chennai. Now, that is the one opening Shakib Al Hasan would be eyeing.
Bangladesh only have one way to make it to the last eight. Beat South Africa or hope Rain Gods would ensure a split (Unfortunately Bangladesh is not Sri Lanka and predicting the weather is far easy in this country). So, let us now first take a look at the points table in Group B and understand the various permutations and combinations possible from here on till this weekend in World Cup 2011
Current Group B points table
Group B
Teams Mat Won Lost Tied N/R Pts Net RR
South Africa 5 4 1 0 0 8 1.606
India 5 3 1 1 0 7 0.768
England 6 3 2 1 0 7 0.072
West Indies 5 3 2 0 0 6 1.650
Bangladesh 5 3 2 0 0 6 -0.765
Ireland 5 1 4 0 0 2 -0.881
Netherlands 5 0 5 0 0 0 -2.386
There are 3 matches left in Group B. While one is a battle for placings in terms of no.5 and no.6 between Ireland and Netherlands, the other two matches could actually decide which are the four teams that will make the grade and the second aspect that will get clear is where they will be finishing in their group
Bangladesh versus South Africa - Saturday
If Bangladesh beat South Africa at Mirpur on Saturday, they will go to 8 points and confirm their qualification. If South Africa beat Bangladesh, the Proteas will top the table by going to 10 points while Bangladesh will be left to hope that India beat West Indies by a margin of 300 runs, which is next to impossible. So, it is plain and simple. Bangladesh have to beat South Africa or at least split a point to be in contention.
India versus West Indies on Sunday
If Bangladesh beat South Africa on Saturday, India will need to ensure they do not get thrashed by the Windies by a record margin and that will do it for Dhoni & Co. But, the Caribbeans will be in a must-win situation. If they then lose to India, they will be eliminated at the expense of Bangladesh and England.
Scenario 1- If Bangladesh beat South Africa and India beat West Indies
1. India - 9 points
2. South Africa - 8 points
3. Bangladesh - 8 points
4. England - 7 points
Scenario 2 - If Bangladesh beat South Africa and West Indies beat India by a small margin
1. West Indies - 8 points (Superior net run-rate)
2. South Africa - 8 points
3. Bangladesh - 8 points
4. India - 7 points
Scenario 3 - If South Africa beat Bangladesh and India beat West Indies by a small/medium margin
1. South Africa - 10 points
2. India - 9 points
3. England - 7 points
4. West Indies - 6 points
Scenario 4 - If South Africa beat Bangladesh and West Indies beat India
1. South Africa - 10 points
2. West Indies - 8 points
3. India - 7 points
4. England - 7 points
So, the equation is now fairly simple. If South Africa beat Bangladesh on Saturday, all top teams will go through and the Bangladeshis will see the end of their campaign in World Cup 2011.
Last game of Group A to decide who finishes where
Group A is not open in the sense of who will make it to the last eight but definitely there is a battle on for positions within the group. Unbeaten Australia are currently on top of the group but it could all change with just two games remaining. If the surprise package so far New Zealand can put it across Sri Lanka, they could challenge for the top end of the table and if Pakistan can get rid of Australia, the group could face a major shuffle in the top four. Here's how
Group A
Teams Mat Won Lost Tied N/R Pts Net RR
Australia 5 4 0 0 1 9 1.693
New Zealand 5 4 1 0 0 8 1.957
Pakistan 5 4 1 0 0 8 0.729
Sri Lanka 5 3 1 0 1 7 2.705
Zimbabwe 5 1 4 0 0 2 -0.669
Canada 6 1 5 0 0 2 -1.987
Kenya 5 0 5 0 0 0 -3.005
Like in Group B, this group too has one irrelevant game, which won't have any bearing on the top four placings. That is Zimbabwe versus Kenya. But, the other two games can be very interesting
Sri Lanka versus New Zealand on Friday
If Sri Lanka beat New Zealand, they will go to 9 points, they will go to the top of the table thanks to their superior net run-rate over Australia. New Zealand will remain in the second position as their net run-rate is unlikely to suffer a collateral damage unless they lose by a horrific margin to the Lankans.
If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka, they will go to the top of Group A with 10 points while the Lankans will finish in the 4th place with no chance to improve since all the other 3 teams will have higher points regardless of what happens in the next game.
Australia versus Pakistan on Saturday
This will be the game that will decide who will finish on top and who will finish in the bottom of the top four in the group. If Australia beat Pakistan, they will comfortably sit on top of the table with 11 points. If Lanka beat New Zealand on Friday and Australia beat Pakistan, then Pakistan will slip to 4th place behind the Kiwis on inferior net run-rate. But, in the same scenario where Lanka beat NZ and Pakistan beat Australia, the Pakistanis will go to the top of the table with 10 points, Lanka will finish second with 9 points thanks to a better run-rate than that of Australia while the current world champions will finish 3rd and the Kiwis at the bottom.
Scenario 1 - If Sri Lanka beat New Zealand and Australia beat Pakistan
1. Australia - 11 points
2. Sri Lanka - 9 points
3. New Zealand - 8 points
4. Pakistan - 8 points (poor net run-rate)
Scenario 2 - If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka and Australia beat Pakistan
1. Australia - 11 points
2. New Zealand - 10 points
3. Pakistan - 8 points
4. Sri Lanka - 7 points
Scenario 3 - If Sri Lanka beat New Zealand and Pakistan beat Australia
1. Pakistan - 10 points
2. Sri Lanka - 9 points
3. Australia - 9 points
4. New Zealand - 8 points
Scenario 4 - If New Zealand beat Sri Lanka and Pakistan beat Australia
1. New Zealand - 10 points (Superior net run-rate0
2. Pakistan - 10 points
3. Australia - 9 points
4. Sri Lanka - 7 points