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What I have heard is it will max out at 1.7 billions.Gutterbaijani media
India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU
India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSUen.apa.az
What is the mathematical model here?Gutterbaijani media
India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSU
India's population may exceed 2.2 billion by mid-century — MSUen.apa.az
As I have written before, not too sure about that decline thingy. Unlike the East Asian nations, we don't have the unique combination of a low marriage rate, a high divorce rate and an insanely high female labor force participation rate (coupled with stagnant real wages) yet. And our dependence on internal consumption augurs well for our future growth prospects (higher economic growth <=> less uncertainty <=> healthy TFR). Our TFR has been stabilizing for some time now but a total collapse, imo, seems unlikely. Shinzo Abe's diplomats once called India the 'France of emerging economies' for the consistent netrality of the GoI but ironically, there are bigger parallels between these two nations (France maintains a TFR of 1.8-1.9; one of the highest among the EU nations).to decline again back to 1.3 billion in 2100 (2015-18 levels).
They're going Pakistani way.
Rise and decline of population on DTM model is strictly common for every society.As I have written before, not too sure about that decline thingy. Unlike the East Asian nations, we don't have the unique combination of a low marriage rate, a high divorce rate and an insanely high female labor force participation rate (coupled with stagnant real wages) yet. And our dependence on internal consumption augurs well for our future growth prospects (higher economic growth <=> less uncertainty <=> healthy TFR). Our TFR has been stabilizing for some time now but a total collapse, imo, seems unlikely. Shinzo Abe's diplomats once called India the 'France of emerging economies' for the consistent netrality of the GoI but ironically, there are bigger parallels between these two nations (France maintains a TFR of 1.8-1.9; one of the highest among the EU nations).
But then again, it is insanely difficult to make long term projections and demographers are famously considered even bigger charlatans than the economists by some, so...
The TFR will decline some more and the population will be stabilizing overall but chances are that it won't be a full blown crisis like those nations across East Asia and Southern Europe.Rise and decline of population on DTM model is strictly common for every society.
The only estimate of childlessness is based on those pieces of junk NFHS data and their estimates are at about 11-12% (iirc). Not very statistically significant yet.childless or 1 child marriages are too common at educated couples.
Such regional disparities will exist but overall, it does not stop the nation from attaining a stable population. The geographic location and the sheer size of the population of UP and Bihar make it nearly impossible for these states to attain a level of development similar to say, Tamil Nadu or Telangana and thus, these states will keep maintaining higher TFR.Most of rich states have low or negative population growth rate already.
H TFR shd be declining a little more before approaching the asymptote eventually. And Sikhs (primarily concentrated in Punjab) have bigger issues plaguing them (that have to do with the broader socio-economic fallout across the state) which deserves a separate post on its own.Hindus have already TFR below 2.1 (just stabilised, preparing to decline), Sikhs have 1.8 (declining).
There is no supporting source, indication, trend, report or research that India's population graph won't follow same trend.The TFR will decline some more and the population will be stabilizing overall but chances are that it won't be a full blown crisis like those nations across East Asia and Southern Europe.
You have to wait for census in that case. It is more than common in tier 3 city and 10-20% is enough to alter situation.And average marriage age in India is well below 30 (tiny % of uber rich urban folks don't count).
You better come up with a contradicting source before calling NFHS junk in that case. Since no other source contradicts it. From PeW to previous two census.The only estimate of childlessness is based on those pieces of junk NFHS data and their estimates are at about 11-12% (iirc). Not very statistically significant yet.
High population growth states have prevented nation from having a declining population. And they will not do it for more than 3 decades (or even less).Such regional disparities will exist but overall, it does not stop the nation from attaining a stable population
Factually incorrect.The geographic location and the sheer size of the population of UP and Bihar make it nearly impossible for these states to attain a level of development similar to say, Tamil Nadu or Telangana and thus, these states will keep maintaining higher TFR.
"Why" is not our topic. Our topic is about "if population of India will decline" and there must be a supporting evidence or at least logic that Indian population will not decline despite ongoing trend. I don't think there is any.H TFR shd be declining a little more before approaching the asymptote eventually. And Sikhs (primarily concentrated in Punjab) have bigger issues plaguing them (that have to do with the broader socio-economic fallout across the state) which deserves a separate post on its own.
Permanent stabilization? Lol no. I am no astrologer, can't predict how things will pan out a century later. All I am claiming is that India DOES NOT have the unique combination of low marriage rate+high divorce rate+high childlessness+high female labor force participation+real wage growth stagnation and hence, basing India's projections on other Asian nations (JPN, KOR, VN, CHN etc) does not make any sense (a lot of papers I have come across take inspirations from the former emerging economies and hence the comparison).There is no supporting source, indication, trend, report or research that India's population graph won't follow same trend.
A permanent stabilisation solely for India without any logic, is simply a wet dream real as unicorns.
Really? You kept mentioning NFHS so I assumed you would be familiar with their findings too but anyway....You have to wait for census in that case. It is more than common in tier 3 city and 10-20% is enough to alter situation.
Formally employed salaried folks are still a small %. If anything, rural wage growth has been muted and the reduced pace of transition (into urban middle class) has been a major policy failure of the incumbent govt; I have written multiple posts on it on the economy thread so won't dive into the details.Marrying in 30s isn't a rich urban trend. It's a reality of formally employed salaried folks belonging to lower middle class who are guiding their families to upper middle class.
Contradicting source to junk the NFHS? Of all? Lol, please! The incumbent members of the PM-EAC have done it already. Sanjeev Sanyal and Bibek Debroy wrote articles as recently as a few weeks back trashing their methodologies and standards. Shamika Ravi has been voicing her opinions for years now. A former Professor of mine (an ISI Kolkata guy; someone who was actually involved with the NSO, MosPI) once told me that even the GoI knew that their surveys were shitty.You better come up with a contradicting source before calling NFHS junk in that case. Since no other source contradicts it. From PeW to previous two census.
Please ask those UN employed demographers to explain the post world war era population boom first. Or why they were fear mongering about the supposed population explotion in India and forced the Indira Gandhi led govt to forcefully sterilize lakhs of innocent civilians. It is only natural that people will be judged in accordance with their past track record, isn't it?High population growth states have prevented nation from having a declining population. And they will not do it for more than 3 decades (or even less).
India's every census ends up with lower population than UN projection.
This thing requires a separate counter. Will post that later; whenever I am free.Factually incorrect.
- It's Rajasthan (and Ladakh) whose geography restricts socio economic development. UP & Bihar are more than ripe. Population density, resources and industries.
- UP does have a high GDP per capita and HDI growth.
Turkroach nationalists are really something else man, truly a hilarious breed .
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Dayum we should reduce the altitude towards turkeyTurkroach nationalists are really something else man, truly a hilarious breed .
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His " Excellency" Modi has