DivineHeretic
Senior Member
- Joined
- Jan 1, 2013
- Messages
- 1,153
- Likes
- 1,897
Its not about being dumb.Its about failing to appreciate the emerging situation on the ground swiftly, or in some cases even apreciating the correct siyuation on the ground. I dont need to tell you how the US president bought into a MI and CiA sold yarn and invaded a country. Or for that matter the CIA director caught with his pants down when we conducted a nuclear test. Or for that matter the Georgia conflict or the resurgence of talibanNATO commanders are not that dumb! They know that if militants get their hands on the bombs, or even enough nuclear material for a dirty bomb, some may reach India, but some would also reach Europe and across the pond.
In all the situations, there was a massive intelligence failure which caused severe military losses. There is no guarantee that something of a similar magnitude will not happen, especially in the initial few hours, when no one will be sure of the status of the nukes. The other problem is to even predict the collapse, which they failed to do in libya, egypt or even Syria. Here, that problem multipies many fold, especially with already multiple centres of power.
Speed and accurate intelligence will determine if the objective of securing nukes are achieved. For speed, the ground reality must be realised in real time,to allow the commanders to prepare, and for intelligence, the upper echelons of the pak establishment must be infiltrated.