Hari Sud
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China wields a blunt power weapon with dubious claims.
Economically and militarily, China falls short of expectations. Despite projecting strength through an $18 trillion export-oriented economy, they conveniently omit the substantial burden of an equivalent debt, both internal and external. This considerable debt looms over their economy, contributing to their current challenges. On the military front, China boasts a formidable coastal navy, yet their sailors and admirals lack experience beyond their shores. Their 1.8 million-strong army, armed with reverse-engineered rockets and missiles, has not engaged in significant action since the 1979 Vietnam War defeat, except for minor skirmishes in the Himalayas, hence are untrustworthy.
In essence, Chinese power emerges as a blunt weapon, effective for regional intimidation but ill-suited for combat against an equally competent adversary. This limitation becomes evident in their inability to seize Taiwan over the past seven decades or to advance further and capture Indian territories in the Himalayas. Previous territorial gains were achieved through stealth, where a friendly facade concealed their true intentions.
Recently, Moody's downgraded China's credit rating from stable to negative due to the alarming accumulation of debt in Chinese cities and provinces, reaching a staggering $11 trillion. The high-speed railways, once considered shining examples of progress, are burdened with a trillion-dollar debt, exacerbated by the underwhelming success of the high-speed rail network. The same debt-ridden narrative echoes in the housing sector, where hastily constructed, poor-quality properties in ghost cities find no buyers, leaving those who invested during construction unable to complete their purchases. This unsettling pattern repeats across various sectors, casting a shadow on China's economic stability.
Despite China's status as the second-largest economy, it cannot boast about its economic resilience, as it heavily relies on exports. Manufacturing, a significant economic driver, is gradually leaving China, signaling the potential erosion of its manufacturing prowess in the near future.
The dubious nature of China's military prowess is evident, facing formidable challenges in the South China Sea, the Pacific, and the Himalayas. The technologically advanced United States poses a significant obstacle, denying China the ability to assert control over Taiwan or other sea areas in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. has strategically fortified Taiwan into a military power and established its presence in Guam, the Philippines, and around Japan, creating a credible threat to China's ambitions.
In summary, the United States relies on a deterrence policy encompassing punishment and denial. The threat of punishment involves the destruction of an adversary's infrastructure, while denial seeks to convince opponents that their military objectives are unattainable. Consequently, China emerges as a blunt weapon primarily suitable for intimidation, lacking the nuanced capabilities required to navigate complex geopolitical challenges successfully.
Economically and militarily, China falls short of expectations. Despite projecting strength through an $18 trillion export-oriented economy, they conveniently omit the substantial burden of an equivalent debt, both internal and external. This considerable debt looms over their economy, contributing to their current challenges. On the military front, China boasts a formidable coastal navy, yet their sailors and admirals lack experience beyond their shores. Their 1.8 million-strong army, armed with reverse-engineered rockets and missiles, has not engaged in significant action since the 1979 Vietnam War defeat, except for minor skirmishes in the Himalayas, hence are untrustworthy.
In essence, Chinese power emerges as a blunt weapon, effective for regional intimidation but ill-suited for combat against an equally competent adversary. This limitation becomes evident in their inability to seize Taiwan over the past seven decades or to advance further and capture Indian territories in the Himalayas. Previous territorial gains were achieved through stealth, where a friendly facade concealed their true intentions.
Recently, Moody's downgraded China's credit rating from stable to negative due to the alarming accumulation of debt in Chinese cities and provinces, reaching a staggering $11 trillion. The high-speed railways, once considered shining examples of progress, are burdened with a trillion-dollar debt, exacerbated by the underwhelming success of the high-speed rail network. The same debt-ridden narrative echoes in the housing sector, where hastily constructed, poor-quality properties in ghost cities find no buyers, leaving those who invested during construction unable to complete their purchases. This unsettling pattern repeats across various sectors, casting a shadow on China's economic stability.
Despite China's status as the second-largest economy, it cannot boast about its economic resilience, as it heavily relies on exports. Manufacturing, a significant economic driver, is gradually leaving China, signaling the potential erosion of its manufacturing prowess in the near future.
The dubious nature of China's military prowess is evident, facing formidable challenges in the South China Sea, the Pacific, and the Himalayas. The technologically advanced United States poses a significant obstacle, denying China the ability to assert control over Taiwan or other sea areas in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S. has strategically fortified Taiwan into a military power and established its presence in Guam, the Philippines, and around Japan, creating a credible threat to China's ambitions.
In summary, the United States relies on a deterrence policy encompassing punishment and denial. The threat of punishment involves the destruction of an adversary's infrastructure, while denial seeks to convince opponents that their military objectives are unattainable. Consequently, China emerges as a blunt weapon primarily suitable for intimidation, lacking the nuanced capabilities required to navigate complex geopolitical challenges successfully.
