Chapter 4
19:00 Hours
PM House
New Delhi, India
A meeting between the Indian PM, the Chiefs of Army, Navy, Air Force, NSA, and the Defence Minister was already in progress when the Home Minister rushed in to the building, closely followed by his aide, who was stopped at the door by the security guard. "Sorry sir, but we can't allow your companion in. He'll have to wait outside in the lobby till the meeting is over. Orders from above"
HM paused for a moment to argue with the guard but then shrugged and went in himself alone to the secure conference room where NSA chief, Angad was debriefing PM and other participants on the current situation in Pakistan. Everybody paused for a moment when HM entered. Indian PM signaled him to take seat on the nearest available empty chair and said, "Got held up somewhere Purohit ji? Angad had just started explaining to us the current situation in Pakistan. I believe that you haven't missed anything that you already didn't know." and motioned NSA chief to continue.
"As I was saying, Pakistani politics is currently divided in to numerous camps. But the biggest ones that we need to monitor are the Naqvi-Beg and Asgar-Akhtar alliances. They are being backed up by USA and China respectively. Also there are some minor political groups like MQM, PML (Q), and ANP etc. But their role and influence is comparatively minor. In addition to these mainstream parties, there are numerous jihadi tanzeems (organisations) that we monitor. Some are pro-government, others anti and still many others declare their allegiances on case by case basis. Without any major exceptions, they all sympathise or cooperate with Taliban and Al Qaida and are one of the major support bases for these terrorist organisations.
Beg's renewed cooperation with US in war against terrorism has been a mixed bag for them. Even though, they've suffered the loss of many senior leaders by means of arrests and even killings, their wide support base and help from closet jihadis in Pak establishment, especially Army, ensures that their work continues unhindered. Our intelligence sources suggest that General Asgar has close links with many of these organisations and employs their cadre for his dirty work.
Apart from this, there are two other factors that we can't afford to miss. First one is Balochistan and second is Pak Occupied Kashmir. Both regions are in serious turmoil directly due to Chinese.
Of the two, it's POK that concerns us the most as it is Indian Territory illegally occupied by Pakistan and now being swamped with thousands of Chinese soldiers and workers. In early 2010, Pakistan allowed China to start building a massive network of roads, railway tracks and pipelines through the region connecting the two countries. Chinese hope to safe-guard their energy routes by using this line as it gives them a direct land-route to the Arabian Sea and Gwadar port. This way, they can avoid the longer and potentially less reliable route through Straits of Malacca. They have already started negotiations with Iran, Saudi Arab and some African countries to route their shipments, oil and gas through this port. Pakistanis also hope to benefit from this and have extended their full cooperation. In fact we have intelligence which proves that Chinese have been using, at least, two army bases and one air strip, in POK to move in their supplies and as storage dumps.
Satellite pictures show construction of at least four permanent colonies where no civilian Pakistani is allowed. Each one of these colonies has one or more helipads and heavily armed guards on a 24x7 watch basis. Two of these colonies and military bases are less than 80 km from the Line of Control and can be used to launch a surprise attack against us within an hour's notice.
Not only that, there are dozens of terrorist training camps in the vicinity, some of them in direct control of ISI and Paki army. It is a very dangerous situation for us. Chinese presence in this area means that if we decide to take any action against these terrorist camps in the near future, Chinese can get in the way. We have reports from multiple sources that Pakistanis have been planning a big terrorist attack in India very soon and I have a gut feeling that Chinese presence in this area will definitely come into play some way or the other.
But the locals of that area are playing spoil-sport with Paki-Chinese plans. They allege that Chinese activities have destroyed their farms, polluted rivers and uprooted 100s of villages. Three out of four colonies are on the land belonging to the locals and they allege that they were paid insufficient compensation and in many cases, none at all. There have been many reports of protests being held by the affected villagers against the Chinese, but the Pakistani government has been able to hush it up.
Chinese have responded by kidnapping, torturing and even killing some of the more troublesome protesters. Right now, the region is witnessing serious unrest and almost daily confrontations between the locals and Chinese take place. High handedness of the Chinese in dealing with protesters is starting to look like Soviet actions in Afghanistan. Pakistanis have been turning a blind eye to this, as the affected areas are mostly inhabited by ethnic Shias.
As for Balochistan, people are faring no better there either. By and large, Balochis are moderate Muslims but some groups do have links with terrorist groups in Afghanistan. Balochi grievances are that the Punjabi and Sindhi dominated army and government are interested in exploiting natural resources of the region all the while treating them as 3rd rate citizens.
Construction of Gwadar port, without any involvement or economic benefit to the locals, is the latest and just one of the items in a very long list of grievances that they hold against the Pakistani government. Balochis have been fighting a bloody war against the Pakistani establishment for a long time. Pakistani army has used everything in its arsenal ranging from heavy artillery, air strikes and covert missions to put down the rebellion, but the hardy Balochis have kept the resistance alive. However, the entry of Chinese in to the theater has changed the situation for worse.
As I explained earlier, Gwadar port is supposed to be an important point in the new energy route for Chinese and they've invested billions of dollars in it. Common sense dictates that construction of such a massive port, transport routes, pipeline will result in large scale employment of locals and generation of goodwill for the investors. But Chinese kind of screwed up on this one too by employing Chinese workers and engineers for construction as well as daily operations of the port. Instead of helping locals by the creation of employment opportunities, Chinese actions, in the area have in fact caused the same repercussions as in PoK.
Skirmishes between the Chinese and Balochis have already started in earnest. One of the latest causes of conflict is the oil-gas pipeline that Chinese are constructing from Gwadar to China through POK. Balochis forced work on the pipeline to be halted when they came to know that it'll pass through the pastures and native village of a leader of one of the most powerful nationalist Baloch leaders, Gaffar Khan of Baloch Nationalist Liberation Front. Negotiations between Chinese and Khan broke down over the compensation being offered by Chinese. Pakistanis intervened in their usual high-handed manner by arresting another senior leader and torturing him in custody.
Enraged by this, the Balochis responded by ambushing the army convoys passing through the area and destroying any Chinese construction vehicle and material they could lay their hands on. Unfortunately, the situation was exacerbated when Chinese alleged that two of their unarmed workers died in the attack. A joint Pakistani and Chinese assault force then attacked 3 villages killing at least 57 people, 21 of them women and destroying numerous houses. Next day, son and pregnant daughter-in-law of Khan went missing while on en-route to her parent's house. Their badly burned bodies were found two days later around two km off the road. Nobody took responsibility, but that incident closed the lid on any possible reconciliation effort.
Since then, a savage fight has been going on between the Balochis and the Paki-Chinese army with the latter using helicopter gunships and heavy artillery to completely raze down entire villages. Balochis have suffered high causalities, but they've managed to halt all construction work and supply lines to the Gwadar port through most of the area.
This conflict has forced Chinese to look for an alternate route. The first alternative, follows the coastal highway connecting Gwadar to Karachi, then roughly follows either Indus or General Trunk Highway upto Islamabad and from there to occupied Kashmir. But this alternate route is much closer to the Indo-Pak border and within our easy striking distance. Further, they have already invested billions in mapping and construction of the route through Balochistan. Such a drastic change of plans, at this time, will not only increase the operational cost of the project but also cause unacceptable delay.
For the moment, they are trying their level best to find a way out in Balochistan, but I doubt if the Balochis will oblige. They know that even if they manage to quell the rebellion, nothing short of genocide and complete ethnic cleansing will ensure safety of their route from sabotage in future. All these facts are explained in detail with maps in the reports that I've placed in front of you. You're welcome to ask any questions
HM was first, "With billions of dollars that they have at their disposal, what stops the Chinese from just buying off the locals in Balochistan and POK and prevent all this bloodshed and delay? "
"If Chinese have billions of dollars, US can print trillions even at the cost of damage to its economy that such an action might bring. In case of POK, Chinese have displaced people from dozens of mountainous villages where land suitable for farming and rearing cattle is at a premium and constructed their colonies and roads. The people who have lost their lands have nowhere to go and make a living outside POK as they don't have full rights as other Pakistanis. Even those who haven't lost their lands directly have suffered due to pollution, land-slides, flooding among other side-effects brought upon by indiscriminate Chinese activity in a fragile eco-system.
As for Balochistan, things could've been much better if Pakistani army officers were kept out of the compensation process. Balochis alleged that army siphoned off a lion's share of the money that was given by the Chinese and they were left with nothing. When Chinese attempted to talk directly, Pakis brought in their H & D (Honour and Dignity) issue in to play and also screwed up everything by picking up needless fights. Same thing happened in POK too."
PM asked the next question, "Is Chinese presence in Balochistan and POK in anyway related to the attack on the PPP rally? "
"I only have a theory sir." Angad replied hesitatingly.
"Let's hear it!"
"Pakistanis have been moving slowly on the Gwadar port route due to US pressure on Beg and the civilian government. The US has been sponsoring psy-ops for quite some time against the project by questioning whether anybody except the army and its stooges will gain anything out of this, covertly of course. Beg regime was already under enormous domestic and international pressure due to corruption charges and this whisper campaign forced him to tow the US line. Work on the Balochistan route was halted many times citing environment clearances, land ownership issues and so on much to the annoyance of Chinese.
Although it seems kind of farfetched, one of the quickest ways to get the work completed as soon as possible is to have their own puppet in control instead of a US controlled one. For Chinese, there is no one better than General Asgar for this job. They've been propping him up for quite some time now, as a counter to US influence. They planned to use him to push their agenda after Beg stepped down, but Beg's three year extension put a spanner to their plans. Chinese wouldn't let their investment go down the drain and will do anything within their ability to retain their influence and activate that route. They don't see it as an option but a vital necessity. They'll do anything to weaken Beg and install their own man. This near fatal attack on Naqvi is a big blow to the public moral and image of army. Something that General Asgar and Chinese really want."
"Why don't Chinese try buying off Beg instead of playing such dangerous games? " Home minister inquired.
"Well, I don't think that they didn't try that. We know for a fact that two senior PLA generals visited Beg many times over that last two years, ostensibly for the same purpose you mentioned and also to pressurise him to stop the training and infiltration of ethnic Uighur militants into XinJiang. But Beg knows too well that he and PPP government can't last a day without US support.
As for the Uighur militant issue, he is powerless to oblige China without messing up US plans. It's not like reign of Musharraf when Pakis were able to use terrorists for their own means even when pretending to fight them in exchange for money and military aid. Americans have wisened up to the duplicity and perfidy of Pakis and have kept everything on a tight leash. They want to get out of Af-Pak as soon as possible and allowing Chinese controlled Asgar to rule Pakistan will make a graceful exit impossible for them."
"So it seems like US and China are fighting a proxy war, each one using Pakistanis as pawns. ", PM said with a wry smile.
"But not without serious consequences for us." Defence minister interjected. "A US-China battle ground in our nuclear armed neighbour is a nightmare. But I don't think any one of the two will be foolish enough to destabilise the country, it being in tatters as it already is."
"Agreed. I don't think that either the US or China will enter into direct conflict with each other. But their cat-and mouse games are sure to cause serious unrest. It could even result in a civil war. I don't want to even contemplate that." DM said with a shudder.
PM asked Angad, "Why has Asgar not tried to initiate a coup against Beg till now? Or did Beg try to defang Asgar? "
"It sure seems like a quick fix, but both are serving army men and any such move by either of the two will surely cause division within the army and the likelihood of a civil war. With nukes in the picture, nobody knows the consequences. Even without nukes, it's a lose-lose condition for both, unless something unexpected happens, "Angad replied
"Unexpected like?"
Angad paused for a moment before speaking, "Like Beg willingly hands over the reins to Asgar in exchange for a guaranteed safe exit and large sum of money. Or Asgar dies, in that case there is nobody senior enough in Paki army hierarchy that Chinese control to challenge Beg. But Asgar has good contacts with many Islamist terrorist organisations and most worryingly with army wing in charge of the nukes from his pre-9/11 days.
Beg can also postpone the elections, impose martial law, and cut the wings of Asgar by arresting him or by other means. On the other hand, if Beg dies, power is still in hands of civilian government and they can demote or dismiss Asgar. But I seriously doubt that Asgar and his Chinese allies will let that happen."
"So, what does that mean for us?"
"In the case of a civil war, anything from terrorist strikes, to a full blown war to deflect any attention. Threat of a nuclear attack blamed on a rogue commander or on terrorists is very likely. Chinese will surely try to take advantage of the situation."
"A stable Pakistan is in our interests after all!" DM remarked bitterly.
"I dare say it's not. If we play our cards right, we can use the instability in Pakistan to cut China down to size as well as rid ourselves of the shackles of terrorism and nuclear blackmail that these two threaten us with. "Angad responded eagerly to an approving nod from the army chief, General Zoravar Singh.
"Interesting" DM replied. "What are our options?"
"I believe our service chiefs already have a plan that they can explain much better than me "
PM turned to the three chiefs who so far had been listening to every word intently and spoke, "Let's hear it gentlemen."
All three chiefs shared glances with each other and nodded a silent agreement. General Zoravar Singh leaned forward on his chair and began explaining their battle plans to a fully attentive audience.