Where does it leave China and XI? With an egg on the face. This episode has proven that there is very little that China can do when the USA decides to do something. There is a huge contrast which is emerging. USA is engaging Russia in a proxy war, sorting out terrorists in Afghanistan and handling China simultaneously. China is not able to deter even one adversary! It will be a folly to count out US military power and think that China is an all-conquering military. It will do us well to recount that China has a limited military reach. Secondly, this entire episode has been played out at China’s door step. Any belligerent action against US assets or any firefight would have resulted in damage to life and property on Chinese mainland on its prosperous East Coast. Would it be politically acceptable to China?
China is going through a lean economic patch. It is struggling under the weight of its Zero Covid policy. Its real estate sector and BRI are under huge stress. Its tech sector is in trouble. Loss of jobs and pay cuts are real. Its internal consumption is weak. It has to depend on exports to sustain its economy. Any dispute or a conflict in the vicinity of its coast will result in an automatic naval self-blockade, adverse effect on global shipping, and disruption of its exports. That will hit China badly. In turn it will show Xi Jinping in poor light and reflect on his incompetence. In any case, the outcomes of any conflict are unpredictable high risk factors. In such eventuality will Xi Jinping take the risk of any further escalation at this stage? He will seek stability at his door step. He will do nothing till the 20th Party Congress happens and his third term is secured. Politics trumps everything else in China. The stakes are too high for an escalation with USA. China will find different ways and time to get back at USA. In the meantime, China has found international support from Russia, Iran and Pakistan.
The popular opinion is that China will punish Taiwan. The expectation is also that it can mount an invasion to usurp Taiwan when this episode is over. That won’t happen for many reasons. Firstly, as Putin has found out in Ukraine, war is a high risk option with no guarantees of a positive outcome. If Taiwan does a Ukraine act, we might not only see the end of a super power dream but might see the finish of communism in China. That is too big a risk for China to take any time. Secondly, an amphibious operation across 160 -230 km of open ocean is the most complicated military operation even for an experienced military force. The English Channel with a width varying from 35-150 km could not be crossed by Hitler’s well trained, battle hardened and superbly led Wehrmacht. Generals of the calibre of Von Rundstedt, Manstein, Rommel and Model demurred at such a crossing during the second world war. The Chinese do not have the training, expertise, and capability to carry out the most complicated form of conventional operations. Also do not get fooled by all talk of cyber capabilities, AI, 5th generation war et al. Discussions on these topics ceases when Artillery starts firing and people start dying. An analysis of a cross strait amphibious operation in detail @
Win The Taiwan Battle and Lose the China War indicates that China does not have the capability or wherewithal to invade Taiwan and usurp it militarily. At this point of time , China is an empty vessel making lot of noise.
Lastly as stated once by Tsai Ing- wen ‘A failure to defend Taiwan would not only be catastrophic for the Taiwanese, but it would overturn a security architecture that has allowed for peace and extraordinary economic development in the region for seven decades’. To that extent, the world will change forever. If and when China usurps Taiwan it would have broken the first Island Chain completely and will become a military superpower without doubt. That is something the world and USA cannot afford. Neither can India. Cooperation with Taiwan will do us well. This is also the time to put forth our position on the issue without ambiguity. Mere chest thumping rhetoric will not do us good.