When Narendra Modi walks into the state department in Washington on September 30 for lunch with Vice-President Joe Biden, as planned now, he is apt to be flummoxed by the unusually large number of ethnic Indian faces at the tables, unsure of their institutional or national affiliations.
There will be Nisha Desai Biswal, of course, the point person for India at the state department, Atul Keshap, deputy assistant secretary of state for South Asia, Rajiv Shah, the administrator of the US Agency for International Development, Arun M. Kumar, the director-general of the US and Foreign Commercial Service, and Vikram J. Singh, the principal adviser at the Pentagon on Asian and Pacific security affairs that include India but not Afghanistan or Pakistan.
Among Biden's invitees, in all likelihood, will be Vinai Thummalapally, Barack Obama's one-time roommate at Occidental College in Los Angeles. The President appointed him executive director of SelectUSA, part of the international trade administration of the commerce department. Likely to be at lunch is Sri Srinivasan, now a judge at the US court of appeals whose name is whispered in Washington as potentially the first Indian-origin justice at the American supreme court.
With a presidential nomination yesterday as the next American ambassador in New Delhi, Richard Rahul Verma is the latest Indian American to join this expanding crowd. Throughout today, Obama administration officials were scratching their heads to find a way to get Verma not only to Biden's lunch but also to other meetings that Modi will have in Washington at the end of this month.
It is unlikely these officials will have their way: until he is confirmed by the Senate, Verma has to be satisfied merely with Obama's "intent to nominate" him as his man in New Delhi. He is expected by tradition to keep away from everything to do with India and not presume that he will move into Roosevelt House, the ambassador's residence in Chanakyapuri. That is solely the Senate's prerogative to let him.
For the large body of Americans — both of Indian origin and others — who think of Washington's engagement of New Delhi as potentially the most defining partnership of the new millennium, that is the least of their worries.
In extensive conversations with this newspaper today, many members of this large and august group with reputations and influence in Washington expressed disappointment that the choice of Verma had reduced the American embassy in India to a lame-duck mission even before the ambassador-designate had packed his bags to relocate to Chanakyapuri.
No one would comment on record for obvious reasons: indeed, as a concession to political correctness, congratulations are being showered on Verma. But behind the façade of such niceties, there is near-unanimity in Washington among those who work for improving relations with India that Obama's sole reason in choosing Verma was that he is of Indian origin.
Sources familiar with high-level discussions in Washington related to diplomatic appointments said on background today that Obama had sounded out Rajiv Shah for the post in New Delhi. It is a glowing tribute to Shah's humility that he felt the ambassador in New Delhi should be someone who can be equal and comparable to Modi in stature and clout in the US system if relations between India and America are to be returned to the heady days of the presidency of George W. Bush.
Besides, Shah, these sources said, felt that Obama had zeroed in on him only because he was a Gujarati. In any case, Roosevelt House may have been peanuts for someone who as global administrator of US aid programmes handles a budget of $2.6 billion and is a member of Obama's cabinet.
From that vision for bilateral relations in Shah's articulation, Obama's final choice is an unbelievable comedown. Well-wishers of India in Washington are convinced that Verma, once he presents his credentials and settles down in New Delhi, will find that he cannot reach anyone in Washington higher than the deputy secretary of state, given his stature and his clout on the "beltway", a geographical term used to refer to the power centres in Washington.
Once the Prime Minister's office and the ministry of external affairs discover Verma's limitations back home, they will simply bypass the embassy and deal directly with agencies in the US such as the Pentagon or the commerce department to get things done. That is when the embassy will be confirmed as a lame duck in the system.
But the bigger worry is that Obama's raison d'etre — other than Verma's ethnic "asset" — behind the appointment may be nullified by the mid-term Congressional elections in November.
Verma got into the running for the post in New Delhi because he was at one time a Congressional aide to Harry Reid, now the Senate majority leader, a post with immense leverage in the US political system. Reid has been critical to Obama's agenda in his first presidential term.
The Republicans are expected to seize control of the Senate in the November elections: if that happens, Reid's importance will decline. Inevitably, Verma's star will also wane. Whatever little clout he may have now will disappear and his ability to leverage Capitol Hill for the benefit of Indo-US bonhomie will vanish by the time he is confirmed by the Senate.
One Washington insider said today that if Obama wanted to go beyond symbolic gestures and add gravitas to ties with India, he would have persuaded someone like Joe Lieberman, who was a heartbeat away from the presidency himself as a one-time vice-presidential candidate, to go to India. An appointment like that would have continued the great tradition of the tenancy of John Kenneth Galbraith or Daniel Patrick Moynihan in Roosevelt House.
Not only them, most of their successors were men who could pick up the phone and talk to the President if there was a crisis. Not Verma, alas, by any stretch.