U.S. May Allow India to Join JSF Effort

[p2prada]

I doubt you will see more that 600 PAK-FA's and that would be over the life of the program. The F-35 on the otherhand will be constructed in the thousands!

You are comparing wrong aircraft. Compare the FGFA to the F-22 not the F-35. Even the F-22 was seen to be a 700 fighter project, not more. FGFA is seen to be a 1000 aircraft fighter project because exports are allowed.

Russia is planning a single engine fiftg gen fighter for it's LOW category and only that can be compared to F-35 for it's role or even the Indian AMCA in the future. I am not sure about Russia, but India will be replacing over 300-500 aircraft between 2015-2025 along with a simlutaneous increase in squadron numbers. All that will be filled with a low cost fighter like AMCA.

By 2030, India is expected to have 600+ Heavy weight Air superiority fighters(MKI+FGFA), just like the USAF with over 600 Eagles and 187 Raptors. A 1000 AMCA requirement would be a significant number and would match USAF F-35 requirements. Then we aren't even talking about Navy requirements for us, Russia as well as for export.

By the time FGFA starts mass production by 2020, India will have a $6Trillion economy nominally or a $10Trillion economy by PPP, all with today's exchange rates. So, our requirements will increase along with our economy. India will have a $24Trillion economy(nominally) by 2030 at the same growth rate which is quite expected or even $12Trillion at half the growth rate which is significantly low for India's current growth statistics(all figures with today's echange rates). Don't think of us being poor forever.

 

[ace009]

1000 AMCA? What will India do with 1000 AMCAs? give test flights to rich people? Come on - max 200 AMCA for IAF, maybe 50 for the IN. If we find any more buyers, maybe some more will be produced.

 

[sandeepdg]

Then we have Algeria, Malaysia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Uganda, Indonesia which already operate Su-30s and are possible customers for FGFA. Then we have Angola, Belarus, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Khazaksthan, Uzbeikistan and possibly Ukraine which operate Su-27 and are possible buyers of FGFA. These countries already operate around 250-300 Flankers between them.

Future potential customers could include Mexico, Brazil and South Africa. Israel is another big potential customer.

FGFA will obviously be offered up front to anybody willing to buy as soon as Indian and Russian orders are dealt with first.

That's a bit over the top, I would say ! Algeria, Eritrea, Uganda, Angola, Belarus, Ethiopia and Uzbekistan buying a 100 million dollar 5th generation jet ! Not going to happen, mate. You can forget poor African countries buying such sterling hardware just because most of them operate the Mig-29s or the SU-27s. The only contender from Africa that I see is South Africa, none other.

Ukraine has more or less become anti-Russian after the orange revolution, don't know if they will buy an Russian 5th generation aircraft, although it will be an obvious choice, but they have been drifting towards the west for quite sometime, so its a bit confusing.

Malaysia, Venezuela, Vietnam, Indonesia, South Africa and also Israel to some extent seem to be the potential customers. Forget Brazil, America will be more than willing to offer them the F-35, but that's another issue whether they can afford it.

 

[ace009]

Actually, Israel has even less chance of buying FGFA. Brazil's economy is stronger than India's currently, so they can certainly afford the F-35. If they go for the FGFA, it will be only because it is a better value for money.

 

[Oracle]

/\/\/\ Brazil's economy is stronger than India's?????? What have you been smokin'?

 

[ace009]

Dude - I mean what I say. Brazil's population is fraction of that of India - it's nominal economy is larger (~$2 Trillion) than India's (~$1.43 Trillion). It's economic growth is not too shabby at 7% GDP growth (compared to India's 8.5 %). It's per capita GDP is ~$11,000, about 10 times that of India (~$1100). So, "stronger" yes ... nominally larger - yes. PPP wise it is smaller (~$2.2 Trillion) than India's (~$4 Trillion), but for international arms deals, PPP does not matter. Nominal does.

If you do not know your stuff, read up before you challenge others.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Brazil

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India

 

[p2prada]

1000 AMCA? What will India do with 1000 AMCAs? give test flights to rich people? Come on - max 200 AMCA for IAF, maybe 50 for the IN. If we find any more buyers, maybe some more will be produced.

AMCA will be meant to replace older aircraft. At the same time we may possibly have a requirement for 60 squadrons minimum for full control of South Asia. It is not impossible considering our economy will be bigger than today's US, possibly twice that of today's US.

MKI = 15 squadrons
PAKFA/FGFA = 17 squadrons

Both with 18/squadron.
That's 32 squadrons of heavy aircraft. This itself is 100% confirmed.

Then we will need over 50 squadrons of lighter aircraft as complement anyway. That's 900 aircraft which seems reasonable, considering we are already mooting 600 Heavy aircraft at minimum. 900 aircraft would be $90Billion even if we consider AMCA would cost $100Million each at today's standards. Quite reasonable as US has already surpassed those requirements with over $200Billion budget for 2400 fighters at 2001 figures.

If you are really looking at ratios then we have a requirement for 270 MKIs and already possess 500 aircraft of the "light" type that extends from Mig-21/27/29, Jags and Mirage-2000 to MRCA and LCA which already number beyond 500. So, Heavy to Light ratio is ~1:2, atleast as of 2015-18. That makes ~600:1200 achievable in the years beyond. So considering the ratio with 600 Heavies, we will also have ~200 MRCA+100 odd LCA+900 AMCA. Also consider the AMCA build time will possibly be until 2040 with acceptable service date until 2070, if the aircraft is delivered by 2025 which gives a 15 year build time for 900 AMCA. Is that acceptable, because I am considering the numbers could end up being more than I have projected here, both build speed as well as requirement.

 

[p2prada]

That's a bit over the top, I would say ! Algeria, Eritrea, Uganda, Angola, Belarus, Ethiopia and Uzbekistan buying a 100 million dollar 5th generation jet !

Algeria is an OPEC. They have the monies.

Eritrea is run as a dictatorship and has enemies in Ethiopia and Somalia.

Uganda seems to be poor but they are currently growing at 6% and have a per capita half that of India. They also have vast resources of untapped oil. Expect India or China jumping at them with offers of investments including aircraft. If it's India, then FGFA will be an obvious choice for replacing their flankers.

Ethiopia has enemies and a requirement for Flanker type jets. The fastest growing non oil producing African nation is quite enough for allocating budget for FGFA.

Belarus belongs in Europe and is five times as rich as India in per capita income. They can afford FGFA in squadron strength.

Angola is an OPEC. Nothing more to say except that it was the fastest growing economy in the world last decade.

 

[sandeepdg]

Algeria is an OPEC. They have the monies.

Eritrea is run as a dictatorship and has enemies in Ethiopia and Somalia.

Uganda seems to be poor but they are currently growing at 6% and have a per capita half that of India. They also have vast resources of untapped oil. Expect India or China jumping at them with offers of investments including aircraft. If it's India, then FGFA will be an obvious choice for replacing their flankers.

Ethiopia has enemies and a requirement for Flanker type jets. The fastest growing non oil producing African nation is quite enough for allocating budget for FGFA.

Belarus belongs in Europe and is five times as rich as India in per capita income. They can afford FGFA in squadron strength.

Angola is an OPEC. Nothing more to say except that it was the fastest growing economy in the world last decade.

Just being an OPEC member, doesn't mean they will like to lay their hands on cutting edge weaponry which is way beyond their current requirements. Flankers are more than enough for their current and future needs. Whatever monies they have, they can hardly match a deal like buying a squadron of 100 million dollar jets like countries like India or say, Brazil can. Forget what happened a decade back. Angola is bottom of the pile in terms of human development in Africa. Lot of these countries have a huge mineral wealth, but thy don't the expertise or the capacities to tap them for their own benefit, hence countries like China find it easy to get hold of them in the guise of development. Sorry, I don't see any logic in African countries opting to buy for such an expensive jet, an there's no probability in that happening in another 10-15 years atleast. The only exception is South Africa, I consider it to be a serious buyer for FGFA in the near future, since they have the desire to do so. Belarus, is a rich nation, no doubt, but their security requirements are very different. And anyway, they have a treaty with Russia for their security and their air-defense network is integrated with the Russian defense network. So, if they feel threatened, Russians will gladly oblige them with necessary support. Hence, no need for them to buy the FGFA.

The only serious buyers will be the big developing nations like you quoted: South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Venezuela, maybe Israel too.

 

[Dark Sorrow]

Israel has already invested in F-35. Just by no means they would dump F-35 for PAF-FA. Israel is not keen to spoil its relation with US.

 

[Singh]

Why can't we keep both F35 and PAkfa ?

 

[Dark Sorrow]

p2prada, last time I check IAF does not even have 500 fighter air-craft. The IAF currently operates approximately 471 fighter aircraft.

 

[Dark Sorrow]

Why can't we keep both F35 and PAkfa ?

Two words Logistic Hell.

 

[p2prada]

Just being an OPEC member, doesn't mean they will like to lay their hands on cutting edge weaponry which is way beyond their current requirements. Flankers are more than enough for their current and future needs. Whatever monies they have, they can hardly match a deal like buying a squadron of 100 million dollar jets like countries like India or say, Brazil can. Forget what happened a decade back. Angola is bottom of the pile in terms of human development in Africa. Lot of these countries have a huge mineral wealth, but thy don't the expertise or the capacities to tap them for their own benefit, hence countries like China find it easy to get hold of them in the guise of development. Sorry, I don't see any logic in African countries opting to buy for such an expensive jet, an there's no probability in that happening in another 10-15 years atleast. The only exception is South Africa, I consider it to be a serious buyer for FGFA in the near future, since they have the desire to do so. Belarus, is a rich nation, no doubt, but their security requirements are very different. And anyway, they have a treaty with Russia for their security and their air-defense network is integrated with the Russian defense network. So, if they feel threatened, Russians will gladly oblige them with necessary support. Hence, no need for them to buy the FGFA.

The only serious buyers will be the big developing nations like you quoted: South Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Venezuela, maybe Israel too.

Again you make the mistake of economies being stagnant forever. Also the fact that Flankers will need replacement starting from 2030. Take note that no new Flankers will be made by that time. It will be a classic aircraft like F-4 or Mirage-2000 today.

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/ar...more-flankers-from-rosenboronexport-and-irkut

2 squadrons are pretty good and replacement with FGFA post 2030 is a high possibility. Everybody has been happy with Flanker and Russia is a good friend of Algeria along with the other African countries I mentioned.

Also the requirement to selll 600 FGFA internationally was by the UAC boss himself. He said it will be carried out over a period of 20 years from 2020. It sounds quite realistic IMO.

p2prada, last time I check IAF does not even have 500 fighter air-craft. The IAF currently operates approximately 471 fighter aircraft.

125 Mig-21 Bison
125 Jaguar
120 Mig-27
69 Mig-29
52 Mirage-2000

All current inventory = 491 aircraft. Remove 10 to 20 for attrition we have 476.

Then let's add 130 MKIs to the list and that's 621 aircraft.

Then we have a number of trainers.

We also currently operate old Mig-21s that will be retired next year. They number upto 80 and decreasing as we speak.

Anyhow;
This was something I claimed earlier:

By the time FGFA starts mass production by 2020, India will have a $6Trillion economy nominally

This is something I found

http://www.hindustantimes.com/India-s-2-trn-tryst/H1-Article1-669562.aspx

So, we can finance all of this as easy as hay if the present trend continues.

Why can't we keep both F35 and PAkfa ?

We don't need it anyway. MoD itself has rejected F-35 for Air force officially. We have FGFA which will be completely multirole, PAKFA will also be multirole. Then we have our own AMCA with 2 engines which removes the need for a single engine fighter like F-35.

F-35 is good for US which will be replacing their manned aircraft with unmanned air superiority fighters in the future. It's not good for all those other countries that are planning their entire air doctrine on a strike aircraft including Israel. The client states neither have F-22 type air superiority aircraft nor have they planned UCAVs for air superiority.

IN may be interested though and there will be a race for it which has already been announced. The Naval MMRCA.

 

[ace009]

I like the idea of F-35 naval version for future IAC-3, as I have mentioned in other posts. IN is looking for a multirole strike fighter in the lines of the F/A-18 and as a 5th generation medium sized fighter F-35 seems to be the best.

 

[sandeepdg]

Again you make the mistake of economies being stagnant forever. Also the fact that Flankers will need replacement starting from 2030. Take note that no new Flankers will be made by that time. It will be a classic aircraft like F-4 or Mirage-2000 today.

http://www.arabianaerospace.aero/ar...more-flankers-from-rosenboronexport-and-irkut

2 squadrons are pretty good and replacement with FGFA post 2030 is a high possibility. Everybody has been happy with Flanker and Russia is a good friend of Algeria along with the other African countries I mentioned.

Also the requirement to selll 600 FGFA internationally was by the UAC boss himself. He said it will be carried out over a period of 20 years from 2020. It sounds quite realistic IMO.

Mate, I never said anything about their economies being stagnant forever, all I meant is that it defies logic for such countries like Eritrea, Uganda, Ethiopia, Angola buying such a jet which is way beyond their strategic requirements, not monetary ones. Obviously 15-20 years down the line, even the potent Sukhois of today will become old and obsolete, but then that's quite some time. Even if there are sales for the FGFA, they are not going to begin anytime before 2025 at least since the prior commitments are to India, and the first customers for these planes won't surely be the above countries. I can bet my two cents on it. Algeria is an exception, since it is already operating the SU-30MKA which is quite closer to the MKI and it will be an obvious choice for them to move to the FGFA, but not the above ones. Anyway, none of this is happening before at least another 15 years or so, lets see who eventually becomes the first buyer for the FGFA.

 

[p2prada]

Then who's talking about exports immediately. I listed potential customers for FGFA in order to bring about 600 FGFA exports to make it a viable project. That's about it. All countries I listed including the "poor" sub Saharan countries are potential export customers.

Vietnam is the first potential buyer because of China's J-20.

 

[sandeepdg]

^ Actually, I loathe the idea of such superb aircraft landing in the air forces of such basket case nations (African ones, I mean). But in the end, its all business.

 

[Crusader53]

Why can't we keep both F35 and PAkfa ?

Clearly, the best solution and one that would provide India with a similar Hi/Low Mix as the USAF with the F-22/F-35.

 

[Zebra]

Hi,
US needs more customers for JSF 35, as more customers ---less per aircraft cost .
Like a slow poison US want to kill all other aircraft makers . What they do ---just make pressure on buyers to buy only US fighters.
When you do not get enough customers , your future development get kill.
Like no more fighter aircrafts what Dassault decided already .
India should not join JSF 35 project but in future for sure US will offer this aircraft to India .
When India think it is OK as per India's need , just buy it .