U.S. and China trade taunts at summit - - POLITICO.com
U.S. and China trade taunts at summit
Reaching an international agreement to curb the dangerous impacts of global warming largely depends on the two key players at the U.N. climate summit in Copenhagen — China and the United States.
But so far, the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitters seem more interested in taunting than talking.
"I don't want to say the gentleman is ignorant,” Chinese Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei told reporters Friday, referring to top U.S. negotiator Todd Stern. “But I think he lacked common sense or he's extremely irresponsible.”
The minister’s zinger was prompted by comments Stern made at his first press conference here on Wednesday, when he blasted the Chinese for not doing enough to curb their carbon emissions. Stern vowed that the United States would help some developing countries pay for cutting greenhouse gases — but not China.
“I don’t envision public funds - certainly not from the United States – going to China,” Stern said. “That’s just life, and the real world.”
The spat marks an open explosion in a previously more diplomatic stand-off between two of the world’s greatest power – and biggest polluters. Whether the Copenhagen conference results in any kind of political agreement, environmental activists say, largely hinges on the success of America and China reaching a private deal.
On Friday, Stern downplayed the divide between the two nations, which wield enormous influence with other countries at the summit – the United States with rich industrialized nations that built their wealth on fossil fuels, and China with poor developing countries that aspire to do the same.
“Whether we get a deal or not hangs the in balance,” Stern said. “But there is a deal to be had with respect to all the major issues, and we are going to work on it.”
To get there, the two countries must first overcome a complex political stalemate.
China, which blames centuries of U.S. pollution for the current state of the world’s climate, won’t do more unless America agrees to make steeper emissions cuts and pay more money into a kitty that will help developing nations mitigate their emissions.
But the United States won’t commit to deep cuts unless China agrees to “robust” actions, arguing that developing countries will be responsible for roughly 28% of the world’s greenhouse gas pollution by 2020.
“This isn’t a matter of politics or morality or anything else, it’s just math,” Stern said.
One place the arithmetic doesn’t add up is for lawmakers in Congress.
Democrats from manufacturing and coal states fear that U.S. emissions caps, undertaken without similar actions by the Chinese, would send jobs and factories overseas.
Some progress was made last month when Chinese officials promised a “carbon intensity target” that would lower greenhouse gas intensity from between 40 to 45 percent per unit of their gross economic output by 2020.
Climate experts praised the move as an important step towards reaching a global agreement. The cuts would make China responsible for more than 25 percent of the reductions the world needs to limit planetary warming in coming years to 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, according the International Energy Agency.
But key Senate democrats remained deeply skeptical that the target would result in an actual reduction of Chinese emissions, versus simply slowing their growth.
"There's a lot of verification we're going to have to see before I'd embrace it and say it's as positive a development as the Chinese would hope we'd say it is," said Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa.). “I’m a little skeptical.”
Similar Senate opposition stopped the United States from signing on to the Kyoto treaty in 1997, when lawmakers refused to ratify any global accord that exempted developing nations.
Observers say the U.S. has learned the lessons of Kyoto. American negotiators have made China’s agreement for monitoring, verification, and reporting requirements a key part of any deal signed in Copenhagen. But the notoriously secretive communist nation remains reluctant to open its books to the world.
At the same time, China faces its own tricky, domestic dynamics. Its rapidly growing economy depends heavily on Africa nations for natural resources and as trading partners for cheap goods.
China also is part of the G-77 group, a block of more than 130 developing nations that is demanding steeper emissions cuts by the world’s big polluters, and more money from rich nations to help deal with the devastating impacts of climate change.
That leaves the Chinese walking a tightrope between agreeing to the types of cuts Africa and other poor nations are demanding, or potentially angering some key economic partners.
The tough politics lead some analysts here to conclude that no serious progress between the United States and China will happen only when, and if Congress passes a climate bill.
Legislation is likely to include a border tax on Chinese imports if the country fails to take sufficient emission reduction actions by a certain date – a proposal stridently opposed by China. The bill also would create a cap and trade market for greenhouse gas emission, opening up the type of economic opportunities sought out by hungry Chinese entrepreneurs.
Those issues, climate experts say, could finally force serious negotiations between the two behemoths.
“China’s moment of truth comes after the Congress acts, not at Copenhagen,” said Peter Goldmark, director of the Climate and Air program for the Environmental Defense Fund. “That’s when the real negotiation with China starts.”