Storm warning: China is headed for an epic hard landing

[mylegend]

As another Chinese poster have point out, it is unlikely for China to spend much more industrial electricity when there is a contraction in the economy.

Data below present the overall elecricity consumption in China. Chinese Power demand grew 11.7 percent in 2011.

China’s Growth in Power Consumption May Slow With Economy - Businessweek

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Yes, US as a country is the biggest trading partner of China, of course it can influence China easily. However, keep in mind the number of Republican in the House, China is not in big trouble. I mean Romney, the Republican Presidential Candidate likely, onces works for Bain Capital, a Private Equity also have much investment in China... I believe both Romney and Obama are centrist that unlikely to counter China with strong action.

Sources: Mitt Romney plans China crackdown - Tim Mak and Ben White - POLITICO.com

 

[mylegend]

Also it is unlikely that it is fake that China produce over half of world's steel and it is the biggest buyer in construction equipment. Those number do not lie.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Also it is unlikely that it is fake that China produce over half of world's steel and it is the biggest buyer in construction equipment. Those number do not lie.

These numbers are from infrastructure buildout that will come to an end.

 

[mylegend]

Sources: Mitt Romney plans China crackdown - Tim Mak and Ben White - POLITICO.com

You really believe Romney's word in those speeches? Romney is acting as a career politician, As MA governor, MA created the health care reform that Obama's administration model after, yet, he claims to be a supporter of smaller government,

Romney has said "I support the right of individuals to keep and bear arms as guaranteed under the U.S. Constitution," though in past campaigns he has described himself as a proponent of gun control, and he fully supports a ban on assault weapons.

Gingrich is a career politician, no question about it. When he was busy attacking president Clinton on sex scandal, he is cheating on his wife at the same time...

Big company in US will continue to lobby for China due to their investment interest.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

You really believe Romney's word in those speeches? Romney is acting as a career politician, As MA governor, MA created the health care reform that Obama's administration model after, yet, he claims to be a supporter of smaller government,

No pro chinese Politician will survive long with the Corporate anti-Chinese lobby and public sentiment. Calling a country a bunch thieves is not a big deal?

 

[sukhish]

All,
the point is simple, Indians can't stand the fact that china is growing and it keeps growing. the hard landing is not on the horizon, everything else is staticstics. we indians can't stand the fact that china is not about to collapse. that's the whole argument. all the postings on this thread by my fellow indians can be summed up to this little statement. So I request to all the chinease posters not to argue with us, as it's not a matter of this or that. the matter is very simple. we are just jealeaous of the chinease. plain and simple.

 

[mylegend]

All,
the point is simple, Indians can't stand the fact that china is growing and it keeps growing. the hard landing is not on the horizon, everything else is staticstics. we indians can't stand the fact that china is not about to collapse. that's the whole argument. all the postings on this thread by my fellow indians can be summed up to this little statement. So I request to all the chinease posters not to argue with us, as it's not a matter of this or that. the matter is very simple. we are just jealeaous of the chinease. plain and simple.

India have some area are leading China too, the IT industry and service sector(call center etc). India's pharmacy company are also more well-known than the Chinese counter part. I believe the Gap between two nation is largely due to some time factor, the reform in India began much later than China.

While I believe Chinese economy are not facing a hard landing, I do understand that there is many risk that policy maker should look after. Some of problem underlining Chinese economy is very serious, and it can significantly impact Chinese economy. However, I do believe that those risk are assessable, and with right move policy maker should be able to counter it.

 

[sukhish]

mylegend,
nice of you. the problem I see with china is domestic consuption. the elephant in the room is, 35% domestic consuption is not going to take you guys to far. for domestic consuption you need more freedom in you country, otherwise people would not spend. chinease economy is still close, it's not as transparant as the West and even India. you need more dmocratic reforms otherwise in next one or two years economy will start to flatten out. remember 35% domestic consuption is the key, rest all are not that big of parameters. there lies the very basic foundational problem. india might be little slow in the start, but our robust domestic consuption is very robust.

 

[mylegend]

Yes, Chinese economy relies too much on investment. The high housing price also discourage people to spend when most young people are saving money for a house. That is why I do believe the popping of housing bubble will be a good thing in longer term. However, I believe the problem of China is not as bad as other imagine. You must remember China require 30% down payment for buying a house after all. Second house for individual require 50% of down payment.

 

[CherrywoodHunter]

mylegend,
nice of you. the problem I see with china is domestic consuption. the elephant in the room is, 35% domestic consuption is not going to take you guys to far. for domestic consuption you need more freedom in you country, otherwise people would not spend. chinease economy is still close, it's not as transparant as the West and even India. you need more dmocratic reforms otherwise in next one or two years economy will start to flatten out. remember 35% domestic consuption is the key, rest all are not that big of parameters. there lies the very basic foundational problem. india might be little slow in the start, but our robust domestic consuption is very robust.

Totally agreed. China is not going to anywhere if we failed to convert our economy into a consumption-oriented one. And democracy is a prerequisite if we want to be a real super power.

 

[Ray]

If I am not mistaken, China is now trying to tap the domestic market.

I wonder if the situation is as bad as is always being portrayed.

 

[J20!]

No pro chinese Politician will survive long with the Corporate anti-Chinese lobby and public sentiment. Calling a country a bunch thieves is not a big deal?

The fact is dude, politics is politics, and economics is economics. No matter how much big talk we get from Obama or his potential succesors, the US needs China more than it needs any other country on earth to lift it out of recession. Were would Ford and GM be without China? they sell more cars in China than they do in the US or any where else on the globe, PERIOD. China is a HUGE market for American goods. They cry over China stealing American jobs, but then their limping companies NEEDED cheaper labour during the recession, and they'll need it during economic recovery.



Whine all you want, but china is going no where and all this hard landing shit is just that, shit:




China's Growth Is Far From Hard Landing, Goldman's O'Neill Says

January 17, 2012, 7:34 PM EST

By Bob Willis and Erik Schatzker

Jan. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Jim O'Neill, the economist who coined the term BRIC a decade ago, said China's fourth-quarter growth rate, while the slowest in more than two years, was stronger than many analysts had forecast and was a "blow" to those predicting a "hard landing" for the nation's economy.


China's economy grew 8.9 percent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said yesterday in Beijing. That exceeded the 8.7 percent median estimate of 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News and is above the 8 percent that signals a "soft landing" for China, according to SinoPac Financial Holdings Co.


O'Neill, chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television's "InsideTrack" with Erik Schatzker that if China grew at an annual rate of 7.5 percent this decade, as he forecast, it would contribute more to world growth in dollar terms than the U.S. and Europe combined.


"It's the most important thing in the world," said O'Neill, who last month published his new book, "The Growth Map," with predictions of "rosy prospects" for the BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China and other developing markets. "Some democracy a la Chinese style is going to emerge," he said. "They want more freedom but they really want more wealth."


Overheated Market


One of China's key economic challenges is its overheated property market. Yet China's policy makers, by tightening monetary policy, managed to stem the property bubble, O'Neill said, something Western policy makers had failed to do before the subprime property meltdown that began in the U.S. in the middle of the last decade.


"China's property prices have turned because Chinese authorities have deliberately stopped them," he said. O'Neill said China's authorities were raising wages to boost the domestic economy and move away from its dependence on exports, while seeking to address international concerns that its yuan currency is undervalued.


"There are two ways of dealing with exchange-rate issues, one is moving the nominal exchange rate; the second is to raise your prices and wages higher than everybody else, and the Chinese are deliberately doing that with wages," he said.


The yuan traded at 6.3150 yesterday, compared with 6.3165 Jan. 17, according to the China Foreign Exchange Trade System. The People's Bank of China set the yuan's reference rate 0.09 percent stronger at 6.3250. It is allowed to trade 0.5 percent on either side of the daily fixing.


Greek Concerns


Regarding concerns that Greece may default, O'Neill said China's economy generates the equivalent of Greek gross domestic product every four months. "Greece itself is not that important," he said. "What is important," according to O'Neill, is "how Greece deals with the restructuring or a default, which seems quite possible, and the contagion of that through the rest of Europe is extremely important."


O'Neill said European markets had "sort of" shrugged off last week's Standard & Poor's downgrade of France and eight other European countries. He said it wasn't clear whether that was because people perceived the European Central Bank is "going to be doing more and more" or there are "some signs of some stabilizing in the economy."


--Editors: Kevin Costelloe, James Tyson


China’s Growth Is Far From Hard Landing, Goldman’s O’Neill Says - Businessweek



You'll find "China to collapse soon" articles every once in a while, but Indian posters seem to forget that those articles are opinion, not fact.

 

[Ray]

I think the thread should be closed and when China actually collapses, then it could be opened.

China is still going all engines forward and full steam!

Maybe some leaks, but still moving fine!