Russian involvement in Syrian crisis

[gadeshi]

Second pilot is also killed. Close to rebells or Assad.

No.
Crew chief hss been killed by turkoman jihadis, but co-pilot (wrapons op) is alive and stays on Khmeymym AB.

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[nirranj]

No.
Crew chief hss been killed by turkoman jihadis, but co-pilot (wrapons op) is alive and stays on Khmeymym AB.

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What happened to the mortal remains of the pilot and the Marine killed in this incident? Where they able to retrieve their dead bodies? I didn't see any news on funeral conducted for them?

 

[gadeshi]

Mariners body has been evacuated and burried in the town he was born.
There is no reliable info about a pilots body for now.

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[nirranj]

Mariners body has been evacuated and burried in the town he was born.
There is no reliable info about a pilots body for now.

Отправлено с моего XT1080 через Tapatalk

I hope and pray that he gets that final respect and his family a chance to see their loved one.

 

[pmaitra]

Mil-24/35 Hind in action:





Impact of Kalibr Cruise Missile:

 

[pmaitra]

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Russia Is Not Winning in Syria
A counterview to consider. With a Russian-Turkish crisis that Russia can’t benefit from, and few territorial gains in Syria, this opponent of US global hegemony feels Russia’s Syria intervention was a bad idea that will hurt Russia in the long term


Jacob Dreizin | Russia Insider

Despite all you’ve heard about Russia’s great airstrikes and “Putin going full beast,” the Russian position in Syria and the world is looking weaker by the day.

First off, the main supply line of the Russian force in Syria, and in fact the entire Syrian army, which is fighting almost exclusively with Russian munitions, hangs on the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The required volumes of jet fuel, ammo, etc., simply cannot be brought in by air.

In a state of war or near-war with Turkey, or say a Russian cut-off of gas supplies to that nation as retaliation for the SU-24 downing, Ankara would have not only perhaps the legal right but certainly U.S. approval to shut down this lifeline.

Assad would then probably collapse within weeks and the Russian force, lacking fuel and munitions, would have to evacuate by air, perhaps via the Iraq-Iran-Caspian route if Uncle Sam hasn’t closed off Iraqi airspace to Russia by that point.

So in truth, despite the brave talk on most sites not sympathetic to the Empire, Russia can do nothing militarily against Turkey. Moreover, Russia’s problems are now mounting by the week.

The destruction of the tourist plane over Sinai has led Moscow to ban direct flights to Egypt, potentially throwing a big wrench into Russian-Egyptian relations, which had up to that point been strengthening. Now with the Turkish crisis, Russia’s relationship with one of its main trading partners is on the skids.

Yes, Turkey may lose over $20 billion/year or 2.5 percent of its GDP (can you say recession?) from Russian sanctions, including comprehensive restrictions on flights and tourism (there were 4.4 million Russian visits to Turkey last year), import bans, loss of massive construction contracts throughout Russia, and an end to Russian investment in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom was building on its own dime.

But is this a good thing? Who needs it? There is no prize for guessing who benefits from these two strong, proud, sovereign states (so unlike America’s emasculated European colonies) butting heads.

And what will next week bring? You just know something bad will happen. Some Russian pundits have suggested recognizing Syrian Kurdistan and arming the Kurds. OK, then what? It will just keep rolling downhill.

The “solution” to problem A will cause problems B and C, and so on. Don’t they realize this is precisely America's M.O.? But at least Uncle Sam can afford it. This is a terrible swamp Russia is sinking into.

Also at this time, it is clear that the Iranian-Hezbollah “Big Offensive” was a load of hot air. Making use of the Russian air strikes, the Shi’ites have stabilized the situation and taken a few villages here and there, but they are also wasting themselves with casualties they were not prepared for.

Nor does Hezbollah have any strategic reserve to speak of. What they’ve thrown into the mix is all there is. There won’t be another “Big Offensive.”

Only someone who has spent too long playing too many computer games could have thought that the Iranians and just 6000 Hezbollah and what pathetic ragtag bits remain of the Syrian army were ever going to chase the rebels or Nusra or ISIS out of Syria.

At most, destroying ISIS’ oil business might lead the group into Chapter 11, causing it to splinter into many small outfits, perhaps with local tribes taking back some of their own lands.

But for Assad to recover that territory? Forget it! No one in the region will allow it, even if Assad had the manpower for it, which he does not at this point. Nor do I think his goons would ever be welcome back. Notwithstanding the sad apologias we have seen on his behalf, he is now the “legitimate elected leader” of precisely Jack and squat.

So it seems that the great geostrategic genius, Vladimir Putin, may have finally gone a bridge too far. If he had left it alone, the problems of a hyper-fragmented, Somalia-esque, post-Assad Syria as well as ISIS would have been 100-percent owned by America and its lackeys.

This permanent catastrophe would have sapped any remaining will on Uncle Sam’s part to intervene in the region. In fact, after colossal, nation-destroying failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and of course Ukraine—which saw Washington’s chaos devouring our world like “The Nothing” from The Neverending Story—it could have been the very last straw, the end of U.S. Global Dominion. But now, all the Empire needs to do is sit back and watch Russia screw up and exhaust itself.

And Assad is still toast, even if his “Saigon embassy roof” escape to Moscow, Tehran, or Bolivia has been delayed by a year or two. Like the late Najibullah in Afghanistan, this patient can never come off life support, and the only question is when does the hospital get tired or go broke trying to keep him alive. (Besides Russian involvement, Iran is reportedly sending him $6 billion a year, which probably amounts to his entire state budget.)

For Russia, the only benefit I see is its air force gaining experience waging a US-style extended bombing campaign as well as impressing countries such as India, who then line up to buy even more Russian arms. Other than that, I see no gains, only risks now manifesting as one crisis after another.

As for Russian and other post-Soviet nationals involved with Nusra or ISIS, who present an existential threat to the entire former USSR, they can run back to their support base of Turkey at the drop of a hat, then return when things have calmed down.

Only the delusional think the Russian air force will kill them all, or even enough to make a difference. Short of dropping neutron bombs, this is a fool’s errand.

Just as with the 9/11 attackers and their ilk, the only real solution is stopping them at the border or at the airport immigration control booth. The “we have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” approach is pure fantasy imported from America.

It pains me to see wise Russia parroting failed Bush-era mantras straight out of Fox News. For a country that is intellectually head-and-shoulders over the US, with a leader who can speak coherently and in great detail for three hours without a teleprompter, it is certainly a new low.

Russia should have stayed home. Now it is in a hopeless situation that is rolling downhill at dizzying speed. I’m almost afraid to open my eyes at this point.
_________________________
Commentary: It is true. Russia cannot afford a war with Turkey, even if NATO stays out of it. Turkey closing off the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be an act of war. Similarly, Russia starting a war will result in just that. It is important to note that the Kurds control a large swathe of territory from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, all the way up to Turkey. This is the land route Russia needs to keep control of. For this, Iran’s role is very important. Currently, Iraq’s government is heavily Iranian influenced, so much so that even the US cannot do much about it. Russia needs Iran as much as Iran needs Russia. In the larger scheme off things, the best solution is to not escalate tensions with Turkey. With the deployment of S-400, Russia now has a free hand at obliterating the Turk terrorists with minimum chance of Turkish fighter jets doing anything. It should stay that way, and Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia alliance should try to get as much ground as possible. Then, one has to wait for the Europeans to toss out their present governments and bring in some new faces that will call a spade a spade.

@Razor, @gadeshi, @nirranj, @bose, @Rowdy, et al., please comment.

 

[Razor]

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Russia Is Not Winning in Syria
A counterview to consider. With a Russian-Turkish crisis that Russia can’t benefit from, and few territorial gains in Syria, this opponent of US global hegemony feels Russia’s Syria intervention was a bad idea that will hurt Russia in the long term


Jacob Dreizin | Russia Insider

Despite all you’ve heard about Russia’s great airstrikes and “Putin going full beast,” the Russian position in Syria and the world is looking weaker by the day.

First off, the main supply line of the Russian force in Syria, and in fact the entire Syrian army, which is fighting almost exclusively with Russian munitions, hangs on the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The required volumes of jet fuel, ammo, etc., simply cannot be brought in by air.

In a state of war or near-war with Turkey, or say a Russian cut-off of gas supplies to that nation as retaliation for the SU-24 downing, Ankara would have not only perhaps the legal right but certainly U.S. approval to shut down this lifeline.

Assad would then probably collapse within weeks and the Russian force, lacking fuel and munitions, would have to evacuate by air, perhaps via the Iraq-Iran-Caspian route if Uncle Sam hasn’t closed off Iraqi airspace to Russia by that point.

So in truth, despite the brave talk on most sites not sympathetic to the Empire, Russia can do nothing militarily against Turkey. Moreover, Russia’s problems are now mounting by the week.

The destruction of the tourist plane over Sinai has led Moscow to ban direct flights to Egypt, potentially throwing a big wrench into Russian-Egyptian relations, which had up to that point been strengthening. Now with the Turkish crisis, Russia’s relationship with one of its main trading partners is on the skids.

Yes, Turkey may lose over $20 billion/year or 2.5 percent of its GDP (can you say recession?) from Russian sanctions, including comprehensive restrictions on flights and tourism (there were 4.4 million Russian visits to Turkey last year), import bans, loss of massive construction contracts throughout Russia, and an end to Russian investment in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom was building on its own dime.

But is this a good thing? Who needs it? There is no prize for guessing who benefits from these two strong, proud, sovereign states (so unlike America’s emasculated European colonies) butting heads.

And what will next week bring? You just know something bad will happen. Some Russian pundits have suggested recognizing Syrian Kurdistan and arming the Kurds. OK, then what? It will just keep rolling downhill.

The “solution” to problem A will cause problems B and C, and so on. Don’t they realize this is precisely America's M.O.? But at least Uncle Sam can afford it. This is a terrible swamp Russia is sinking into.

Also at this time, it is clear that the Iranian-Hezbollah “Big Offensive” was a load of hot air. Making use of the Russian air strikes, the Shi’ites have stabilized the situation and taken a few villages here and there, but they are also wasting themselves with casualties they were not prepared for.

Nor does Hezbollah have any strategic reserve to speak of. What they’ve thrown into the mix is all there is. There won’t be another “Big Offensive.”

Only someone who has spent too long playing too many computer games could have thought that the Iranians and just 6000 Hezbollah and what pathetic ragtag bits remain of the Syrian army were ever going to chase the rebels or Nusra or ISIS out of Syria.

At most, destroying ISIS’ oil business might lead the group into Chapter 11, causing it to splinter into many small outfits, perhaps with local tribes taking back some of their own lands.

But for Assad to recover that territory? Forget it! No one in the region will allow it, even if Assad had the manpower for it, which he does not at this point. Nor do I think his goons would ever be welcome back. Notwithstanding the sad apologias we have seen on his behalf, he is now the “legitimate elected leader” of precisely Jack and squat.

So it seems that the great geostrategic genius, Vladimir Putin, may have finally gone a bridge too far. If he had left it alone, the problems of a hyper-fragmented, Somalia-esque, post-Assad Syria as well as ISIS would have been 100-percent owned by America and its lackeys.

This permanent catastrophe would have sapped any remaining will on Uncle Sam’s part to intervene in the region. In fact, after colossal, nation-destroying failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and of course Ukraine—which saw Washington’s chaos devouring our world like “The Nothing” from The Neverending Story—it could have been the very last straw, the end of U.S. Global Dominion. But now, all the Empire needs to do is sit back and watch Russia screw up and exhaust itself.

And Assad is still toast, even if his “Saigon embassy roof” escape to Moscow, Tehran, or Bolivia has been delayed by a year or two. Like the late Najibullah in Afghanistan, this patient can never come off life support, and the only question is when does the hospital get tired or go broke trying to keep him alive. (Besides Russian involvement, Iran is reportedly sending him $6 billion a year, which probably amounts to his entire state budget.)

For Russia, the only benefit I see is its air force gaining experience waging a US-style extended bombing campaign as well as impressing countries such as India, who then line up to buy even more Russian arms. Other than that, I see no gains, only risks now manifesting as one crisis after another.

As for Russian and other post-Soviet nationals involved with Nusra or ISIS, who present an existential threat to the entire former USSR, they can run back to their support base of Turkey at the drop of a hat, then return when things have calmed down.

Only the delusional think the Russian air force will kill them all, or even enough to make a difference. Short of dropping neutron bombs, this is a fool’s errand.

Just as with the 9/11 attackers and their ilk, the only real solution is stopping them at the border or at the airport immigration control booth. The “we have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” approach is pure fantasy imported from America.

It pains me to see wise Russia parroting failed Bush-era mantras straight out of Fox News. For a country that is intellectually head-and-shoulders over the US, with a leader who can speak coherently and in great detail for three hours without a teleprompter, it is certainly a new low.

Russia should have stayed home. Now it is in a hopeless situation that is rolling downhill at dizzying speed. I’m almost afraid to open my eyes at this point.
_________________________
Commentary: It is true. Russia cannot afford a war with Turkey, even if NATO stays out of it. Turkey closing off the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be an act of war. Similarly, Russia starting a war will result in just that. It is important to note that the Kurds control a large swathe of territory from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, all the way up to Turkey. This is the land route Russia needs to keep control of. For this, Iran’s role is very important. Currently, Iraq’s government is heavily Iranian influenced, so much so that even the US cannot do much about it. Russia needs Iran as much as Iran needs Russia. In the larger scheme off things, the best solution is to not escalate tensions with Turkey. With the deployment of S-400, Russia now has a free hand at obliterating the Turk terrorists with minimum chance of Turkish fighter jets doing anything. It should stay that way, and Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia alliance should try to get as much ground as possible. Then, one has to wait for the Europeans to toss out their present governments and bring in some new faces that will call a spade a spade.

@Razor, @gadeshi, @nirranj, @bose, @Rowdy, et al., please comment.

I ve commented on other thread as it is part of other topict too. Thanks.

 

[gadeshi]

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Russia Is Not Winning in Syria
A counterview to consider. With a Russian-Turkish crisis that Russia can’t benefit from, and few territorial gains in Syria, this opponent of US global hegemony feels Russia’s Syria intervention was a bad idea that will hurt Russia in the long term


Jacob Dreizin | Russia Insider

Despite all you’ve heard about Russia’s great airstrikes and “Putin going full beast,” the Russian position in Syria and the world is looking weaker by the day.

First off, the main supply line of the Russian force in Syria, and in fact the entire Syrian army, which is fighting almost exclusively with Russian munitions, hangs on the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The required volumes of jet fuel, ammo, etc., simply cannot be brought in by air.

In a state of war or near-war with Turkey, or say a Russian cut-off of gas supplies to that nation as retaliation for the SU-24 downing, Ankara would have not only perhaps the legal right but certainly U.S. approval to shut down this lifeline.

Assad would then probably collapse within weeks and the Russian force, lacking fuel and munitions, would have to evacuate by air, perhaps via the Iraq-Iran-Caspian route if Uncle Sam hasn’t closed off Iraqi airspace to Russia by that point.

So in truth, despite the brave talk on most sites not sympathetic to the Empire, Russia can do nothing militarily against Turkey. Moreover, Russia’s problems are now mounting by the week.

The destruction of the tourist plane over Sinai has led Moscow to ban direct flights to Egypt, potentially throwing a big wrench into Russian-Egyptian relations, which had up to that point been strengthening. Now with the Turkish crisis, Russia’s relationship with one of its main trading partners is on the skids.

Yes, Turkey may lose over $20 billion/year or 2.5 percent of its GDP (can you say recession?) from Russian sanctions, including comprehensive restrictions on flights and tourism (there were 4.4 million Russian visits to Turkey last year), import bans, loss of massive construction contracts throughout Russia, and an end to Russian investment in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom was building on its own dime.

But is this a good thing? Who needs it? There is no prize for guessing who benefits from these two strong, proud, sovereign states (so unlike America’s emasculated European colonies) butting heads.

And what will next week bring? You just know something bad will happen. Some Russian pundits have suggested recognizing Syrian Kurdistan and arming the Kurds. OK, then what? It will just keep rolling downhill.

The “solution” to problem A will cause problems B and C, and so on. Don’t they realize this is precisely America's M.O.? But at least Uncle Sam can afford it. This is a terrible swamp Russia is sinking into.

Also at this time, it is clear that the Iranian-Hezbollah “Big Offensive” was a load of hot air. Making use of the Russian air strikes, the Shi’ites have stabilized the situation and taken a few villages here and there, but they are also wasting themselves with casualties they were not prepared for.

Nor does Hezbollah have any strategic reserve to speak of. What they’ve thrown into the mix is all there is. There won’t be another “Big Offensive.”

Only someone who has spent too long playing too many computer games could have thought that the Iranians and just 6000 Hezbollah and what pathetic ragtag bits remain of the Syrian army were ever going to chase the rebels or Nusra or ISIS out of Syria.

At most, destroying ISIS’ oil business might lead the group into Chapter 11, causing it to splinter into many small outfits, perhaps with local tribes taking back some of their own lands.

But for Assad to recover that territory? Forget it! No one in the region will allow it, even if Assad had the manpower for it, which he does not at this point. Nor do I think his goons would ever be welcome back. Notwithstanding the sad apologias we have seen on his behalf, he is now the “legitimate elected leader” of precisely Jack and squat.

So it seems that the great geostrategic genius, Vladimir Putin, may have finally gone a bridge too far. If he had left it alone, the problems of a hyper-fragmented, Somalia-esque, post-Assad Syria as well as ISIS would have been 100-percent owned by America and its lackeys.

This permanent catastrophe would have sapped any remaining will on Uncle Sam’s part to intervene in the region. In fact, after colossal, nation-destroying failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and of course Ukraine—which saw Washington’s chaos devouring our world like “The Nothing” from The Neverending Story—it could have been the very last straw, the end of U.S. Global Dominion. But now, all the Empire needs to do is sit back and watch Russia screw up and exhaust itself.

And Assad is still toast, even if his “Saigon embassy roof” escape to Moscow, Tehran, or Bolivia has been delayed by a year or two. Like the late Najibullah in Afghanistan, this patient can never come off life support, and the only question is when does the hospital get tired or go broke trying to keep him alive. (Besides Russian involvement, Iran is reportedly sending him $6 billion a year, which probably amounts to his entire state budget.)

For Russia, the only benefit I see is its air force gaining experience waging a US-style extended bombing campaign as well as impressing countries such as India, who then line up to buy even more Russian arms. Other than that, I see no gains, only risks now manifesting as one crisis after another.

As for Russian and other post-Soviet nationals involved with Nusra or ISIS, who present an existential threat to the entire former USSR, they can run back to their support base of Turkey at the drop of a hat, then return when things have calmed down.

Only the delusional think the Russian air force will kill them all, or even enough to make a difference. Short of dropping neutron bombs, this is a fool’s errand.

Just as with the 9/11 attackers and their ilk, the only real solution is stopping them at the border or at the airport immigration control booth. The “we have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” approach is pure fantasy imported from America.

It pains me to see wise Russia parroting failed Bush-era mantras straight out of Fox News. For a country that is intellectually head-and-shoulders over the US, with a leader who can speak coherently and in great detail for three hours without a teleprompter, it is certainly a new low.

Russia should have stayed home. Now it is in a hopeless situation that is rolling downhill at dizzying speed. I’m almost afraid to open my eyes at this point.
_________________________
Commentary: It is true. Russia cannot afford a war with Turkey, even if NATO stays out of it. Turkey closing off the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be an act of war. Similarly, Russia starting a war will result in just that. It is important to note that the Kurds control a large swathe of territory from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, all the way up to Turkey. This is the land route Russia needs to keep control of. For this, Iran’s role is very important. Currently, Iraq’s government is heavily Iranian influenced, so much so that even the US cannot do much about it. Russia needs Iran as much as Iran needs Russia. In the larger scheme off things, the best solution is to not escalate tensions with Turkey. With the deployment of S-400, Russia now has a free hand at obliterating the Turk terrorists with minimum chance of Turkish fighter jets doing anything. It should stay that way, and Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia alliance should try to get as much ground as possible. Then, one has to wait for the Europeans to toss out their present governments and bring in some new faces that will call a spade a spade.

@Razor, @gadeshi, @nirranj, @bose, @Rowdy, et al., please comment.

Underestimate Russians is always a bad idea

Отправлено с моего XT1080 через Tapatalk

 

[Yun Ming]

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Russia Is Not Winning in Syria
A counterview to consider. With a Russian-Turkish crisis that Russia can’t benefit from, and few territorial gains in Syria, this opponent of US global hegemony feels Russia’s Syria intervention was a bad idea that will hurt Russia in the long term


Jacob Dreizin | Russia Insider

Despite all you’ve heard about Russia’s great airstrikes and “Putin going full beast,” the Russian position in Syria and the world is looking weaker by the day.

First off, the main supply line of the Russian force in Syria, and in fact the entire Syrian army, which is fighting almost exclusively with Russian munitions, hangs on the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The required volumes of jet fuel, ammo, etc., simply cannot be brought in by air.

In a state of war or near-war with Turkey, or say a Russian cut-off of gas supplies to that nation as retaliation for the SU-24 downing, Ankara would have not only perhaps the legal right but certainly U.S. approval to shut down this lifeline.

Assad would then probably collapse within weeks and the Russian force, lacking fuel and munitions, would have to evacuate by air, perhaps via the Iraq-Iran-Caspian route if Uncle Sam hasn’t closed off Iraqi airspace to Russia by that point.

So in truth, despite the brave talk on most sites not sympathetic to the Empire, Russia can do nothing militarily against Turkey. Moreover, Russia’s problems are now mounting by the week.

The destruction of the tourist plane over Sinai has led Moscow to ban direct flights to Egypt, potentially throwing a big wrench into Russian-Egyptian relations, which had up to that point been strengthening. Now with the Turkish crisis, Russia’s relationship with one of its main trading partners is on the skids.

Yes, Turkey may lose over $20 billion/year or 2.5 percent of its GDP (can you say recession?) from Russian sanctions, including comprehensive restrictions on flights and tourism (there were 4.4 million Russian visits to Turkey last year), import bans, loss of massive construction contracts throughout Russia, and an end to Russian investment in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom was building on its own dime.

But is this a good thing? Who needs it? There is no prize for guessing who benefits from these two strong, proud, sovereign states (so unlike America’s emasculated European colonies) butting heads.

And what will next week bring? You just know something bad will happen. Some Russian pundits have suggested recognizing Syrian Kurdistan and arming the Kurds. OK, then what? It will just keep rolling downhill.

The “solution” to problem A will cause problems B and C, and so on. Don’t they realize this is precisely America's M.O.? But at least Uncle Sam can afford it. This is a terrible swamp Russia is sinking into.

Also at this time, it is clear that the Iranian-Hezbollah “Big Offensive” was a load of hot air. Making use of the Russian air strikes, the Shi’ites have stabilized the situation and taken a few villages here and there, but they are also wasting themselves with casualties they were not prepared for.

Nor does Hezbollah have any strategic reserve to speak of. What they’ve thrown into the mix is all there is. There won’t be another “Big Offensive.”

Only someone who has spent too long playing too many computer games could have thought that the Iranians and just 6000 Hezbollah and what pathetic ragtag bits remain of the Syrian army were ever going to chase the rebels or Nusra or ISIS out of Syria.

At most, destroying ISIS’ oil business might lead the group into Chapter 11, causing it to splinter into many small outfits, perhaps with local tribes taking back some of their own lands.

But for Assad to recover that territory? Forget it! No one in the region will allow it, even if Assad had the manpower for it, which he does not at this point. Nor do I think his goons would ever be welcome back. Notwithstanding the sad apologias we have seen on his behalf, he is now the “legitimate elected leader” of precisely Jack and squat.

So it seems that the great geostrategic genius, Vladimir Putin, may have finally gone a bridge too far. If he had left it alone, the problems of a hyper-fragmented, Somalia-esque, post-Assad Syria as well as ISIS would have been 100-percent owned by America and its lackeys.

This permanent catastrophe would have sapped any remaining will on Uncle Sam’s part to intervene in the region. In fact, after colossal, nation-destroying failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and of course Ukraine—which saw Washington’s chaos devouring our world like “The Nothing” from The Neverending Story—it could have been the very last straw, the end of U.S. Global Dominion. But now, all the Empire needs to do is sit back and watch Russia screw up and exhaust itself.

And Assad is still toast, even if his “Saigon embassy roof” escape to Moscow, Tehran, or Bolivia has been delayed by a year or two. Like the late Najibullah in Afghanistan, this patient can never come off life support, and the only question is when does the hospital get tired or go broke trying to keep him alive. (Besides Russian involvement, Iran is reportedly sending him $6 billion a year, which probably amounts to his entire state budget.)

For Russia, the only benefit I see is its air force gaining experience waging a US-style extended bombing campaign as well as impressing countries such as India, who then line up to buy even more Russian arms. Other than that, I see no gains, only risks now manifesting as one crisis after another.

As for Russian and other post-Soviet nationals involved with Nusra or ISIS, who present an existential threat to the entire former USSR, they can run back to their support base of Turkey at the drop of a hat, then return when things have calmed down.

Only the delusional think the Russian air force will kill them all, or even enough to make a difference. Short of dropping neutron bombs, this is a fool’s errand.

Just as with the 9/11 attackers and their ilk, the only real solution is stopping them at the border or at the airport immigration control booth. The “we have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” approach is pure fantasy imported from America.

It pains me to see wise Russia parroting failed Bush-era mantras straight out of Fox News. For a country that is intellectually head-and-shoulders over the US, with a leader who can speak coherently and in great detail for three hours without a teleprompter, it is certainly a new low.

Russia should have stayed home. Now it is in a hopeless situation that is rolling downhill at dizzying speed. I’m almost afraid to open my eyes at this point.
_________________________
Commentary: It is true. Russia cannot afford a war with Turkey, even if NATO stays out of it. Turkey closing off the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be an act of war. Similarly, Russia starting a war will result in just that. It is important to note that the Kurds control a large swathe of territory from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, all the way up to Turkey. This is the land route Russia needs to keep control of. For this, Iran’s role is very important. Currently, Iraq’s government is heavily Iranian influenced, so much so that even the US cannot do much about it. Russia needs Iran as much as Iran needs Russia. In the larger scheme off things, the best solution is to not escalate tensions with Turkey. With the deployment of S-400, Russia now has a free hand at obliterating the Turk terrorists with minimum chance of Turkish fighter jets doing anything. It should stay that way, and Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia alliance should try to get as much ground as possible. Then, one has to wait for the Europeans to toss out their present governments and bring in some new faces that will call a spade a spade.

@Razor, @gadeshi, @nirranj, @bose, @Rowdy, et al., please comment.

Some of the comments below that article sums up my views:
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
"It's fantasy to assume that the only goal of the West was the removal of President Assad. President Assad's removal was just the beginning in a long line of other "projects." The ultimate goal is Russian fragmentation and control. Either Russia sits back and waits for dozens of Beslans or it takes action because the US and allies want Russia."

"That's the fact missed in the above post. Russia is in Syria because she faces an existential threat.Syria is a "war of choice" only in the sense of the choosing where to draw the line. It was better to draw that line in Syria than in Ukraine, or in the Caucasus .Russia may have to fight those wars anyway but Syria will delay them. As for Turkey closing the Bosporus, that would be a full scale act of total war.That decision is not in Erdogan's hands.If the U.S. is willing to provoke that final war over Syria, then there is no hope anyway. I will add one last thing . I agree with you overall. Russia needs to decide what shes fighting this war of survival for . If its for a relative handful of Russian oligarchs and "entrepreneurs", (as it is now) who keep all of their loot in America and Britain anyway, then I hope Russia will simply surrender and spare the world the inevitable Armageddon. If Russia were fighting for a different and better hope for civilization entirely, as she was in 1941, then she could make her appeal to the masses of the worlds downtrodden people, and to her own.That call will be answered, I'm certain. "
-----------------------------------------------------------------------


Russia will fight it out in Syria to the bitter end. They already got outplayed by NATO ( especially the French) in Libya under Medvedev.
If they lose in Syria, Iran is next, then Kazakhstan, then the rest of the CIS, then Russia will get fragmented, then they turn to China and so on......

NATO/US is pushing Russia on the brink of using Nukes.

*scratching my head*

 

[Rowdy]

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Russia Is Not Winning in Syria
A counterview to consider. With a Russian-Turkish crisis that Russia can’t benefit from, and few territorial gains in Syria, this opponent of US global hegemony feels Russia’s Syria intervention was a bad idea that will hurt Russia in the long term


Jacob Dreizin | Russia Insider

Despite all you’ve heard about Russia’s great airstrikes and “Putin going full beast,” the Russian position in Syria and the world is looking weaker by the day.

First off, the main supply line of the Russian force in Syria, and in fact the entire Syrian army, which is fighting almost exclusively with Russian munitions, hangs on the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The required volumes of jet fuel, ammo, etc., simply cannot be brought in by air.

In a state of war or near-war with Turkey, or say a Russian cut-off of gas supplies to that nation as retaliation for the SU-24 downing, Ankara would have not only perhaps the legal right but certainly U.S. approval to shut down this lifeline.

Assad would then probably collapse within weeks and the Russian force, lacking fuel and munitions, would have to evacuate by air, perhaps via the Iraq-Iran-Caspian route if Uncle Sam hasn’t closed off Iraqi airspace to Russia by that point.

So in truth, despite the brave talk on most sites not sympathetic to the Empire, Russia can do nothing militarily against Turkey. Moreover, Russia’s problems are now mounting by the week.

The destruction of the tourist plane over Sinai has led Moscow to ban direct flights to Egypt, potentially throwing a big wrench into Russian-Egyptian relations, which had up to that point been strengthening. Now with the Turkish crisis, Russia’s relationship with one of its main trading partners is on the skids.

Yes, Turkey may lose over $20 billion/year or 2.5 percent of its GDP (can you say recession?) from Russian sanctions, including comprehensive restrictions on flights and tourism (there were 4.4 million Russian visits to Turkey last year), import bans, loss of massive construction contracts throughout Russia, and an end to Russian investment in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom was building on its own dime.

But is this a good thing? Who needs it? There is no prize for guessing who benefits from these two strong, proud, sovereign states (so unlike America’s emasculated European colonies) butting heads.

And what will next week bring? You just know something bad will happen. Some Russian pundits have suggested recognizing Syrian Kurdistan and arming the Kurds. OK, then what? It will just keep rolling downhill.

The “solution” to problem A will cause problems B and C, and so on. Don’t they realize this is precisely America's M.O.? But at least Uncle Sam can afford it. This is a terrible swamp Russia is sinking into.

Also at this time, it is clear that the Iranian-Hezbollah “Big Offensive” was a load of hot air. Making use of the Russian air strikes, the Shi’ites have stabilized the situation and taken a few villages here and there, but they are also wasting themselves with casualties they were not prepared for.

Nor does Hezbollah have any strategic reserve to speak of. What they’ve thrown into the mix is all there is. There won’t be another “Big Offensive.”

Only someone who has spent too long playing too many computer games could have thought that the Iranians and just 6000 Hezbollah and what pathetic ragtag bits remain of the Syrian army were ever going to chase the rebels or Nusra or ISIS out of Syria.

At most, destroying ISIS’ oil business might lead the group into Chapter 11, causing it to splinter into many small outfits, perhaps with local tribes taking back some of their own lands.

But for Assad to recover that territory? Forget it! No one in the region will allow it, even if Assad had the manpower for it, which he does not at this point. Nor do I think his goons would ever be welcome back. Notwithstanding the sad apologias we have seen on his behalf, he is now the “legitimate elected leader” of precisely Jack and squat.

So it seems that the great geostrategic genius, Vladimir Putin, may have finally gone a bridge too far. If he had left it alone, the problems of a hyper-fragmented, Somalia-esque, post-Assad Syria as well as ISIS would have been 100-percent owned by America and its lackeys.

This permanent catastrophe would have sapped any remaining will on Uncle Sam’s part to intervene in the region. In fact, after colossal, nation-destroying failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and of course Ukraine—which saw Washington’s chaos devouring our world like “The Nothing” from The Neverending Story—it could have been the very last straw, the end of U.S. Global Dominion. But now, all the Empire needs to do is sit back and watch Russia screw up and exhaust itself.

And Assad is still toast, even if his “Saigon embassy roof” escape to Moscow, Tehran, or Bolivia has been delayed by a year or two. Like the late Najibullah in Afghanistan, this patient can never come off life support, and the only question is when does the hospital get tired or go broke trying to keep him alive. (Besides Russian involvement, Iran is reportedly sending him $6 billion a year, which probably amounts to his entire state budget.)

For Russia, the only benefit I see is its air force gaining experience waging a US-style extended bombing campaign as well as impressing countries such as India, who then line up to buy even more Russian arms. Other than that, I see no gains, only risks now manifesting as one crisis after another.

As for Russian and other post-Soviet nationals involved with Nusra or ISIS, who present an existential threat to the entire former USSR, they can run back to their support base of Turkey at the drop of a hat, then return when things have calmed down.

Only the delusional think the Russian air force will kill them all, or even enough to make a difference. Short of dropping neutron bombs, this is a fool’s errand.

Just as with the 9/11 attackers and their ilk, the only real solution is stopping them at the border or at the airport immigration control booth. The “we have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” approach is pure fantasy imported from America.

It pains me to see wise Russia parroting failed Bush-era mantras straight out of Fox News. For a country that is intellectually head-and-shoulders over the US, with a leader who can speak coherently and in great detail for three hours without a teleprompter, it is certainly a new low.

Russia should have stayed home. Now it is in a hopeless situation that is rolling downhill at dizzying speed. I’m almost afraid to open my eyes at this point.
_________________________
Commentary: It is true. Russia cannot afford a war with Turkey, even if NATO stays out of it. Turkey closing off the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be an act of war. Similarly, Russia starting a war will result in just that. It is important to note that the Kurds control a large swathe of territory from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, all the way up to Turkey. This is the land route Russia needs to keep control of. For this, Iran’s role is very important. Currently, Iraq’s government is heavily Iranian influenced, so much so that even the US cannot do much about it. Russia needs Iran as much as Iran needs Russia. In the larger scheme off things, the best solution is to not escalate tensions with Turkey. With the deployment of S-400, Russia now has a free hand at obliterating the Turk terrorists with minimum chance of Turkish fighter jets doing anything. It should stay that way, and Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia alliance should try to get as much ground as possible. Then, one has to wait for the Europeans to toss out their present governments and bring in some new faces that will call a spade a spade.

@Razor, @gadeshi, @nirranj, @bose, @Rowdy, et al., please comment.

Good article ... a few points:

-> The author says Assad can not take the whole country back any way so russia's intervention is useless.
This is a tough one to predict. Yes syria will end up more like Afg with lots of Islamic tribes etc but in that case even FSA would find it hard to control. In other words, if their are violent stray dogs on my street , they better be the ones I fed since when they were puppies, which is to say for Russia it is better to have Assad in control fighting the so called splintered tribes with backing from Iran et al than on the back foot fighting FSA & others.

-> That Russia can not do anything against Turkey
Not really , russia does not need to take overt steps to take care of turkey..... they will just bomb the turkmen out of existence and quietly arm the kurds while Turkey watches. This strategy works even if they do not "recognize" the so called Kurdistan. What is Turkey gonna do as village after village is bombed out of existance with S400 + 2x Su /Mig fighters escorting the bombers? Close transit ... Putin will say he is bombing ISIS good luck trying to work out of that media offensive.

 

[amoy]

【Translation】re. Advancement of Kurds YPG - ally of Assad / Russia

The circled grey zone (apprx safe zone) is where Turkey and Isis are bordering one another. YPG has tried many times to cross the Euphrates westward from TAl Abyad in order to have two Kurds controlled green zones connected and meantime block Isis from Turkey too. But Turkish AF bombed every time to foil YPG's attempts. Turkey warned YPG not to advance and even planned to implement no-fly zone over there. Now after the downing of Russian jet, air space over the circled grey zone has come under Russian control, and Turkish AF has to stop intruding into Syria. YPG may capture the circled zone shortly and get their controlled areas linked eventually.


~~Still waters run deep. ~~from my MiPad using tapatalk

 

[Rowdy]

【Translation】re. Advancement of Kurds YPG - ally of Assad / Russia

The circled grey zone (apprx safe zone) is where Turkey and Isis are bordering one another. YPG has tried many times to cross the Euphrates westward from TAl Abyad in order to have two Kurds controlled green zones connected and meantime block Isis from Turkey too. But Turkish AF bombed every time to foil YPG's attempts. Turkey warned YPG not to advance and even planned to implement no-fly zone over there. Now after the downing of Russian jet, air space over the circled grey zone has come under Russian control, and Turkish AF has to stop intruding into Syria. YPG may capture the circled zone shortly and get their controlled areas linked eventually.


~~Still waters run deep. ~~from my MiPad using tapatalk

And that is why Turks are morons

 

[pmaitra]

Some more action in Turkey and Syria:

 

[pmaitra]

Excellent news. Now this going to be test of western made ISIS used ATGM:

 

[pmaitra]

I doubt Turkey will listen and I wonder whether the US is saying this as lip service.

 

[pmaitra]

For some humour:


_____________________________

 

[pmaitra]

Israel Allowing Russia to Fly Over Israeli Skies

Israeli-Russian understandings allow Russian jets to fly over Israeli air space and implicitly let the Israeli Air Force bomb weapons headed from Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to Amos Gilad, senior IDF Reserve officer and director of the Defense Minister’s political-security department.

Russian pilots sometimes cross into Israeli air space. Thanks to excellent security coordination, which began with the meeting between Netanyahu and Putin, limits were drawn up.

The IDF and the Russia army agreed on security priorities. If there is an incident of infiltration, we know what to do and how to prevent incidents what would cause indecision.

Freedom of action is preserved for the Air Force to prevent Iranian weapons from getting into the hands of Hezbollah.

 

[pmaitra]

Whatever happened to the safe zone that Turkey wanted?

 

[bose]

Curb Your Enthusiasm, Russia Is Not Winning in Syria
A counterview to consider. With a Russian-Turkish crisis that Russia can’t benefit from, and few territorial gains in Syria, this opponent of US global hegemony feels Russia’s Syria intervention was a bad idea that will hurt Russia in the long term


Jacob Dreizin | Russia Insider

Despite all you’ve heard about Russia’s great airstrikes and “Putin going full beast,” the Russian position in Syria and the world is looking weaker by the day.

First off, the main supply line of the Russian force in Syria, and in fact the entire Syrian army, which is fighting almost exclusively with Russian munitions, hangs on the Bosporus and Dardanelles. The required volumes of jet fuel, ammo, etc., simply cannot be brought in by air.

In a state of war or near-war with Turkey, or say a Russian cut-off of gas supplies to that nation as retaliation for the SU-24 downing, Ankara would have not only perhaps the legal right but certainly U.S. approval to shut down this lifeline.

Assad would then probably collapse within weeks and the Russian force, lacking fuel and munitions, would have to evacuate by air, perhaps via the Iraq-Iran-Caspian route if Uncle Sam hasn’t closed off Iraqi airspace to Russia by that point.

So in truth, despite the brave talk on most sites not sympathetic to the Empire, Russia can do nothing militarily against Turkey. Moreover, Russia’s problems are now mounting by the week.

The destruction of the tourist plane over Sinai has led Moscow to ban direct flights to Egypt, potentially throwing a big wrench into Russian-Egyptian relations, which had up to that point been strengthening. Now with the Turkish crisis, Russia’s relationship with one of its main trading partners is on the skids.

Yes, Turkey may lose over $20 billion/year or 2.5 percent of its GDP (can you say recession?) from Russian sanctions, including comprehensive restrictions on flights and tourism (there were 4.4 million Russian visits to Turkey last year), import bans, loss of massive construction contracts throughout Russia, and an end to Russian investment in the Akkuyu nuclear power plant, which Rosatom was building on its own dime.

But is this a good thing? Who needs it? There is no prize for guessing who benefits from these two strong, proud, sovereign states (so unlike America’s emasculated European colonies) butting heads.

And what will next week bring? You just know something bad will happen. Some Russian pundits have suggested recognizing Syrian Kurdistan and arming the Kurds. OK, then what? It will just keep rolling downhill.

The “solution” to problem A will cause problems B and C, and so on. Don’t they realize this is precisely America's M.O.? But at least Uncle Sam can afford it. This is a terrible swamp Russia is sinking into.

Also at this time, it is clear that the Iranian-Hezbollah “Big Offensive” was a load of hot air. Making use of the Russian air strikes, the Shi’ites have stabilized the situation and taken a few villages here and there, but they are also wasting themselves with casualties they were not prepared for.

Nor does Hezbollah have any strategic reserve to speak of. What they’ve thrown into the mix is all there is. There won’t be another “Big Offensive.”

Only someone who has spent too long playing too many computer games could have thought that the Iranians and just 6000 Hezbollah and what pathetic ragtag bits remain of the Syrian army were ever going to chase the rebels or Nusra or ISIS out of Syria.

At most, destroying ISIS’ oil business might lead the group into Chapter 11, causing it to splinter into many small outfits, perhaps with local tribes taking back some of their own lands.

But for Assad to recover that territory? Forget it! No one in the region will allow it, even if Assad had the manpower for it, which he does not at this point. Nor do I think his goons would ever be welcome back. Notwithstanding the sad apologias we have seen on his behalf, he is now the “legitimate elected leader” of precisely Jack and squat.

So it seems that the great geostrategic genius, Vladimir Putin, may have finally gone a bridge too far. If he had left it alone, the problems of a hyper-fragmented, Somalia-esque, post-Assad Syria as well as ISIS would have been 100-percent owned by America and its lackeys.

This permanent catastrophe would have sapped any remaining will on Uncle Sam’s part to intervene in the region. In fact, after colossal, nation-destroying failures in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and of course Ukraine—which saw Washington’s chaos devouring our world like “The Nothing” from The Neverending Story—it could have been the very last straw, the end of U.S. Global Dominion. But now, all the Empire needs to do is sit back and watch Russia screw up and exhaust itself.

And Assad is still toast, even if his “Saigon embassy roof” escape to Moscow, Tehran, or Bolivia has been delayed by a year or two. Like the late Najibullah in Afghanistan, this patient can never come off life support, and the only question is when does the hospital get tired or go broke trying to keep him alive. (Besides Russian involvement, Iran is reportedly sending him $6 billion a year, which probably amounts to his entire state budget.)

For Russia, the only benefit I see is its air force gaining experience waging a US-style extended bombing campaign as well as impressing countries such as India, who then line up to buy even more Russian arms. Other than that, I see no gains, only risks now manifesting as one crisis after another.

As for Russian and other post-Soviet nationals involved with Nusra or ISIS, who present an existential threat to the entire former USSR, they can run back to their support base of Turkey at the drop of a hat, then return when things have calmed down.

Only the delusional think the Russian air force will kill them all, or even enough to make a difference. Short of dropping neutron bombs, this is a fool’s errand.

Just as with the 9/11 attackers and their ilk, the only real solution is stopping them at the border or at the airport immigration control booth. The “we have to fight them over there so we don’t have to fight them over here” approach is pure fantasy imported from America.

It pains me to see wise Russia parroting failed Bush-era mantras straight out of Fox News. For a country that is intellectually head-and-shoulders over the US, with a leader who can speak coherently and in great detail for three hours without a teleprompter, it is certainly a new low.

Russia should have stayed home. Now it is in a hopeless situation that is rolling downhill at dizzying speed. I’m almost afraid to open my eyes at this point.
_________________________
Commentary: It is true. Russia cannot afford a war with Turkey, even if NATO stays out of it. Turkey closing off the Bosporus and Dardanelles would be an act of war. Similarly, Russia starting a war will result in just that. It is important to note that the Kurds control a large swathe of territory from Iran, through Iraq, Syria, all the way up to Turkey. This is the land route Russia needs to keep control of. For this, Iran’s role is very important. Currently, Iraq’s government is heavily Iranian influenced, so much so that even the US cannot do much about it. Russia needs Iran as much as Iran needs Russia. In the larger scheme off things, the best solution is to not escalate tensions with Turkey. With the deployment of S-400, Russia now has a free hand at obliterating the Turk terrorists with minimum chance of Turkish fighter jets doing anything. It should stay that way, and Syria, Iraq, Iran, Russia alliance should try to get as much ground as possible. Then, one has to wait for the Europeans to toss out their present governments and bring in some new faces that will call a spade a spade.

@Razor, @gadeshi, @nirranj, @bose, @Rowdy, et al., please comment.

Closing the Bosporus and Dardanelles will lead to all out war that no one wants and afford to at this point of time when the public opinion in Western Europe is turning against soft approach or US action against ISIS...Russia had done the right to intervene militarily in Syria and it must be fully supported by quick gains on ground and consolidation... People on the ground would see new areas been taken control... Perhaps more ground troops from Iran for area consolidation is required

 

[pmaitra]

This is the so called US strategy to fight ISIS.