Russia Ukraine War 2022

[LETHALFORCE]

Wants India to be meditator for peace deal after slowly realising that they are losing against Russia and US may not be able to support them for a longer time.

But I fear that China may come running as a Monkey and will snatch away the credit from India at the end.

China is clearly on Russian side i don't think anyone wants fake chinese interference so they seem relevant?

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

www.politico.eu

 

[Rassil Krishnan]

Dude, you have not one original thought in that brain of yours. I've heard that same scare tactic bullshit a 1000 times and from a hundred different media channels. It's been the narrative for awhile now. It won't work. Putin won't invade a NATO nation, it's impossible. Remember I said that, impossible. So if the impossible happens, please rub it in my face.

At this point, if Russia invades, Europe's future might actually look up than down , because of the kind of people they are importing enmasse, along with their self created social problems from their secular religion of wokeism. Also they have a major population decline bomb ticking, Russia invading and winning might deal with some of these issues atleast for some time. At the moment each country is competing to see who will self sabotage their own demography, social issues and cultural issues,energy and food independence, etc.

 

[Akim]

Sweden and Finland were always a part of the inner circle of Anglos and western europeans. US would have defended them even if they were not in NATO, that's pretty much guaranteed. Them joining NATO is just a mere formalization of those unspoken agreements.

Countries like Ukraine and even Georgia are completely different. They are just pawns in the grand game. The west is using them and giving them weapons just to bleed out Russia, not out of inherent goodwill.

Moreover Putin is not completely irrational. He picks and chooses his battles. A direct war with NATO is a war he cannot win and he knows that very well. The Baltic states honestly are just fear mongering and parroting talking points by Anglo media. They don't have the same historical significance to Russia as Ukraine.

It's about a historical connection.

There was a Slovak here who thinks that the disintegration of Russia will occur along ethnic lines.
No, the collapse of Russia will be more fragmented and it will be built on economic ties.
Koenigsberg is more dependent on Europe than on Russia. Belgorod made purchases in Kharkiv. I’m generally silent about the Far East.
P.S. I think you've seen the video of Belgorod residents hiding from the bombing in a public toilet.

 

[Blademaster]

It's about a historical connection.

There was a Slovak here who thinks that the disintegration of Russia will occur along ethnic lines.
No, the collapse of Russia will be more fragmented and it will be built on economic ties.
Koenigsberg is more dependent on Europe than on Russia. Belgorod made purchases in Kharkiv. I’m generally silent about the Far East.
P.S. I think you've seen the video of Belgorod residents hiding from the bombing in a public toilet.

Lay off the crack pipe. Your country has already splintered.

 

[maximus777]

China is clearly on Russian side i don't think anyone wants fake chinese interference so they seem relevant?

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

www.politico.eu

 

[indiatester]

I've seen this ground assault drone usage in one telegram channel today. Looks like Russia has used it in Berdychi (2nd line of defence after Avdika)

This David Axe guy is not reliable, but still this is the only article I could find

Russia’s First-Ever Robotic Ground Assault Ended Badly ... For The Robots

The Russian army sent at least two grenade-launcher-armed unmanned ground vehicles on what appears to have been a direct assault on the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade.

www.forbes.com

Russia’s First-Ever Robotic Ground Assault Ended Badly ... For The Robots
Ukrainian forces knocked out at least two armed Russian ground drones
David Axe
Forbes Staff
I write about ships, planes, tanks, drones, missiles and satellites.

Abandoned Russian ground robots near Bakhmut.
Ukrainian army capture
The air might be the perfect medium for a drone. The sea, a close second. After all, avoiding obstacles is one of hardest tasks for the distant operator of some remote-controlled robot. There aren’t a lot of obstacles on the water. Even fewer in the air.


Obstacles abound on the ground, however. Which is why, 25 months into Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, both sides deploy lots of aerial drones and the Ukrainians deploy lots of sea drones—but neither side deploys many ground drones.

Not for actual combat, at least. Both the Ukrainians and Russians do use small ground robots for resupply, casualty-evacuation and mine-laying.

That combat exception ended somewhere around the ruins of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, when the Russian army sent at least two—and possibly many more—small, tracked, grenade-launcher-armed unmanned ground vehicles on what appears to have been a direct assault on the Ukrainian 53rd Mechanized Brigade.

It didn’t end well for the robots. A capture from a Ukrainian aerial drone, circulated by Telegram channel @stanislav_osman, depicts two of the diminutive UGVs—one with the number “6” on its flank—lying apparently damaged amid the ruins of destroyed manned vehicles.
We don’t know exactly what the Russians were trying to do with their grenade-launching robotic mini-tanks. We don’t know exactly how the Ukrainians thwarted them. We do know that, years ago, analysts anticipated just how difficult it might be for armies to begin folding robotic ground vehicles into mechanized attacks.

In late 2020, analysts with the California think-tank RAND gamed out a clash between U.S. Army and Russian army mechanized infantry companies in some near-future setting after the U.S. Army has integrated armed ground robots into its force structure. In the game, 11 wheeled and tracked UGVs complemented the Americans’ four M-1 tanks and 11 M-2-style infantry fighting vehicles.
What RAND’s analysts refered to as “robotic combat vehicles” didn’t perform very well in the think-tank’s various offensive and defensive scenarios—and for one major reason. RAND’s RCVs were controlled via radio by a remote operator, just like Russia’s actual UGVs surely are.
And that means they were vulnerable to getting cut off from their operators—either by the terrain or by enemy jamming. “In the baseline game, the need to maintain unobstructed and un-jammed line-of-sight communications to the RCVs imposed significant constraints on [U.S.] forces, slowing the pace and complicating the management of [the U.S.] advance,” the analysts explained.
“In particular, [Russian forces’] effective use of backpack jammers (placed before the battle) substantially limited [U.S. forces’] ability to use the RCVs.” Frequently idled as their operators struggled to stay in control, the robots rolled into battle in erratic fits and starts—and got knocked out by enemy fire.
Again, we don’t know whether one of the Russian army’s first-ever robotic ground assaults in Ukraine ran afoul of Ukrainian jamming. But we shouldn’t be surprised if it did.
Ukrainian forces’ expert application of electronic warfare—flooding key radio channels with noise, rendering them unusable for drone-operators—is one reason why, in some sectors, the Ukrainians have been able to achieve local air-superiority with their own un-jammed aerial drones.
If the Russians widen their deployment of armed ground robots, expect the Ukrainians, in response, to widen their radio-jamming. And expect to see more sights like we observed around Bakhmut: wrecked and abandoned UGVs lying alongside wrecked and abandoned manned vehicles.
Follow me on Twitter. Check out my website or some of my other work here. Send me a secure tip.

Sources:
1. @stanislav_osman: 2. RAND: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA423-1.html

 

[FactsPlease]

China is clearly on Russian side i don't think anyone wants fake chinese interference so they seem relevant?

China secretly sends enough gear to Russia to equip an army

Shipments of military-capable hardware expose a China-sized loophole in Western sanctions.

www.politico.eu

The only sincere and honest words in that report:
"... ... Evidence of this kind shows that China, despite Beijing’s calls for peace, is pushing right up to a red line in delivering enough nonlethal, but militarily useful, equipment to Russia to have a material impact on President Vladimir Putin’s 17-month-old war on Ukraine. ... ..."

A little more: "... ... The sale of so-called dual-use technology that can have both civilian and military uses leaves just enough deniability for Western authorities looking for reasons not to confront a huge economic power like Beijing. ... ..."

So, guess those money West spent on "routed" Russia petro & gas is NOT qualified for "enough nonlethal but militarily useful...", nor "so-called dual-use".
If anything, West media dare to utter words like they are neutral...
Today, you really NOT bother too much to find hypocrisy...

 

[hurrians]

Akimji, jayashankar had said few months back- time for Indias role in peace process has not come, however it seems atleast the process has begun, will your team be dismantled, better start looking for a new job, genuine advice pls don't take negatively.

Around 2.5 year from present for present borders to freeze, with or without a former agreement but a ceasefire maybe. And in between far less skirmishes starting this December.

 

[ww2historian]

Wrong. The Baltic states have attacked Russia. They provided material support and intel on those Ukrainian drones that were used to attack Moscow and oil refineries. It is time that Russia respond.

The US is using a reconnaissance unmanned aircraft in the black sea and this provided intel that was used to destroy Russian ships. They sort of attacked it once, but for some reason they are reluctant to destroy it. I think they should, but to attack a NATO nation is a whole different story. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-S...russian-fighter-strikes-us-unmanned-aircraft/

 

[Corvus Splendens]

Lots of interesting high impact weapons are seen in this conflict

H I Sutton - Covert Shores

Maximizing Bang For Bucks: Ukraine’s New Low-Cost Strike Drones
Wed 27 March 2024By H I Sutton

​

Maximizing Bang For Bucks: Ukraine’s New Low-Cost Strike Drones
How do you turn a length of plastic plumbing pipe, some wood, plastic wrapping and some water bottles into a strategic weapon? Ukraine's growing array of long-range attack drones are evolving to be much cheaper to build. This may allow much larger and more frequent strikes.
The ongoing strikes against Russia's oil refineries are beginning to bite. It appears a logical and impactful strategy. But it is only achievable because of the ongoing innovation of Ukrainians, their allies and volunteers. They have created long range attack drones which are far cheaper, and more available, than cruise missiles. They also overcome the range and political limitations imposed on weapons supplied by allies. This allows Ukraine to conduct systematic strikes at targets deep behind the lines, often in Russia itself.

CLICK to Enlarge.
Brief History
Many of the early UAV raids on Russian airfields, and the strike on the Kremlin on May 3 2023, were likely launched from within Russia. The people involved, whether partisans or special operations forces, were taking huge risks. It is therefore desirable from a Ukrainian perspective to be able to launch the attacks from Ukrainian territory.
To achieve this a new type of weapon, the long range OWA-UAV (one way attack uncrewed air vehicle) was needed. As well as range and reliability, it needed accurate guidance which was jam resistant. Similar weapons had been developed by rebels in Syria, and there are of course other precursors including the Iranian made Shahed frone used by Russia, but the resulting UAVs are at the cutting edge of drone development.
Details about these drones are often incomplete. Some designs have been advertised by Ukraine, and there are crashed examples showing up on social media. But many of the producers and operators remain highly secretive. Some of the better known types may already have been superseded by better designs. However with the information available in open sources an evolution can already be observed.
The first generation of OWA-UAVs were a mix of converted target drones (e.g. UJ-25 Skyline, Morok and Tu-143), weaponization of pre-existing drone projects and ambitious first-attempts. These had moments of greatness, such as the the raid on Tuapse on February 28 2023. But better purpose-designed types were needed.
Two Trends
Now, a year later, a second generation of designs are being fielded. Although there is still a richness of designs, we are seeing two broad trends.
The first is towards incredibly low costs and ease of manufacture. One observed design is evidently constructed out of a length of plastic plumbing pipe. Despite this, the design appears effective and likely has a range of several hundred kilometers. Another better known design, the AQ-400 Scythe, appears largely built out of wood. This has an advertised range of 750 km and a 32kg warhead. The final unit cost of these drones isn't public, but they are likely a fraction of the Iranian Shahed drones supplied to Russia at $375,0000 a pop.

the fuselage of this drone is a plastic plumbing pipe.

AQ-400 Scythe. Note that the undercarriage can be replaced by a dolly or launch rail arrangement.
The other trend is towards higher performance designs leveraging micro-turbojets. These are closer to cruise missiles but still slower, smaller and vastly cheaper than a Storm Shadow or Tomahawk. These types likely try to improve survivability by being harder to shoot down.

Original artwork. CLICK to Enlarge.
If you have further information on the 'unnamed' types in this article please let me know.

This is 1944-45 Germany tier jugaad

 

[Blademaster]

The US is using a reconnaissance unmanned aircraft in the black sea and this provided intel that was used to destroy Russian ships. They sort of attacked it once, but for some reason they are reluctant to destroy it. I think they should, but to attack a NATO nation is a whole different story. https://www.defense.gov/News/News-S...russian-fighter-strikes-us-unmanned-aircraft/

They need to attack it. It is unmanned. NATO is not willing to escalate this further without involving its troops.

 

[Soldier355]

Study in Russia of the downed Storm Shadow cruise missile of the Ukrainian army. Footage of an inspection of the insides of a downed Ukrainian cruise missile Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG of Anglo-French production. The Storm Shadow missile was shot down by Russian air defense or intercepted by electronic warfare systems. Reportedly, every time missiles are intercepted, they are dismantled and sent for study to Russia, to improve the operation of electronic warfare and air defense systems.

 

[ww2historian]

They need to attack it. It is unmanned. NATO is not willing to escalate this further without involving its troops.

One con that just occurred to me is it could motivate the congress to approve aid to Ukraine. Right now it appears that aid is dead, why rock that boat?

 

[ww2historian]

Here are two source that are both pro Ukrainian claiming very different numbers.
Wikipedia show 9 Russian warships lost. The Kyiv indp. claims 26.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ship_losses_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

 

[Akim]

Who said that a tank only lasts 15 minutes? This tank was also shooting at houses in Budapest.

 

[Master Chief]

It's about a historical connection.

There was a Slovak here who thinks that the disintegration of Russia will occur along ethnic lines.
No, the collapse of Russia will be more fragmented and it will be built on economic ties.
Koenigsberg is more dependent on Europe than on Russia. Belgorod made purchases in Kharkiv. I’m generally silent about the Far East.
P.S. I think you've seen the video of Belgorod residents hiding from the bombing in a public toilet.

Ukranian invasion of Belgorod was a flop again.. didn't achieve anything, and you could not hold territory for long

 

[Akim]

Ukranian invasion of Belgorod was a flop again.. didn't achieve anything, and you could not hold territory for long

This is not a Ukrainian invasion. Our Western partners are very afraid of nuclear escalation. After all, legally there is no war, so the likelihood of unilateral use of nuclear weapons is high.
It is anti-Putin troops who are “walking” around the region in raid mode. They are small in number and operate using guerrilla methods, but they do their job: To counter them, two Russian brigades were withdrawn from the Kupyansky direction.
Now interesting events are beginning around Transnistria. "Republic" is coming to life in its last months.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

The only sincere and honest words in that report:
"... ... Evidence of this kind shows that China, despite Beijing’s calls for peace, is pushing right up to a red line in delivering enough nonlethal, but militarily useful, equipment to Russia to have a material impact on President Vladimir Putin’s 17-month-old war on Ukraine. ... ..."

A little more: "... ... The sale of so-called dual-use technology that can have both civilian and military uses leaves just enough deniability for Western authorities looking for reasons not to confront a huge economic power like Beijing. ... ..."

So, guess those money West spent on "routed" Russia petro & gas is NOT qualified for "enough nonlethal but militarily useful...", nor "so-called dual-use".
If anything, West media dare to utter words like they are neutral...
Today, you really NOT bother too much to find hypocrisy...

one report I saw recently was a bomb ingredient
nitrocellulose sale to Russia have skyrocketed
For China and they also banned the item for EU.
I am sure there are other sources but this is a clear indication; no nitrocellulose no bombs, no bombs no war victory.

Opinion | Probe finds Taiwan’s nitrocellulose exports to Russia for gunpowder have skyrocketed

Mainland China is sanctioned for selling dual-use civilian materials but island supplier of key explosive for artillery shells appears to get friendly advice to redirect sales to EU.

www.scmp.com

https://www.ft.com/content/aee0e1a1-c464-4af9-a1c8-73fcbc46ed17

Explosives shortage threatens EU drive to arm Ukraine

 

[LETHALFORCE]

They need to attack it. It is unmanned. NATO is not willing to escalate this further without involving its troops.

EU/ NATO does not have the guts or resources to put boots in the ground . Russians have contingency plans with 1.2 million troops in reserve and many more coming from other parts of the world . There have always been NATo troops in Ukraine who have been getting slaughtered like the Ukrainians. Don’t think they can change any outcome??

North Korea offering 100,000 troops to help defeat Ukraine, Russian state media says

Military pundit Igor Korotchenko, speaking on Russian state TV, said 100,000 North Koreans are willing to fight in the conflict, per reports.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Akim]

EU/ NATO does not have the guts or resources to put boots in the ground . Russians have contingency plans with 1.2 million troops in reserve and many more coming from other parts of the world . There have always been NATo troops in Ukraine who have been getting slaughtered like the Ukrainians. Don’t think they can change any outcome??

North Korea offering 100,000 troops to help defeat Ukraine, Russian state media says

Military pundit Igor Korotchenko, speaking on Russian state TV, said 100,000 North Koreans are willing to fight in the conflict, per reports.

www.businessinsider.com

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