Russia Ukraine War 2022

[GaudaNaresh]

Mongols didn't really hold Russia for much duration.
They were plunder groups who used to make ties with local opposition party and put them in power.
Unlike the central Asia where they changed the genome of people permanently.

Uhh, Russia and up to what is modern day western poland were Mongol vassals for 200 years. Russian, lithuanian, polish princes used to travel to Old Sarai & New Sarai, capital of the Golden Horde ulus, to get confirmed by the khan as his vassals.
It was in 1300s i believe when Russians won a key victory vs the mongols, neutralising their archers by literally using wooden walls on wheels on the battlefield that the Mongol yoke was thrown off. I forget the name of the Russian prince who did that, but he's basically the third/fourth most famous Russian monarch of alltime, after Peter the great, Catherine the Great and Ivan the terrible.

 

[ovalpiston]

I see no reason to go with the bolded part, given that the goals of both sides are still vastly incompatible & mostly unaccomplished.

There is absolutely no ways Prigozhin planned this all by himself, he must have backing of powerful entities within Russian intelligence and military. The situation is very fluid but here are the possible scenarios and none of which makes me think the war will continue beyond another two months -

a. Prigozhin succeeds - This is likely if he has NATO+Russian intelligence+Generals of Russian Military on his side. NATO wouldn't have guaranteed billions to Prigozhin unless he is committed to withdrawing from Ukraine.
b. Prigozhin fails - This needs to happen within the next 72 hrs to avoid an all out civil war. If it does happen then Wagner, which has been an integral part of Russian operations will be in disarray and will be dismantled. But importantly, if Prigozhin fails, then Putin will do a Stalinist purge of his military and intelligence commanders further denting the military capabilities.
c. Prigozhin sustains - Russia will now have to go from marching towards Kiev to protecting Moscow. This is the worst case scenario for Russians because it would mean months or even years long civil war.

While i have no crystal ball, none of the possible scenarios has the war with Ukraine continuing much longer. History is rife with examples of coups, assassinations and revolutions when wars drag on.

 

[Augustus]

Mongols didn't really hold Russia for much duration.
They were plunder groups who used to make ties with local opposition party and put them in power.
Unlike the central Asia where they changed the genome of people permanently.

You dont have to hold anything . If the locals after getting their ass beaten completely start giving you tax and then become your personal whipping boy(read tax collector) and take you as their overlords then it is as good as conquest my man. Many regions and princely states of Indian subcontinent never needed british army's presence. Some even kept their own army. But they provided hefty tax to the east India Company and saw them as their overlords.

Mongols did the same. Kicked the russian ass to kingdom come. Made them their personal whipping boy. Became their overlords. Made their princes bow their head in front of them. Full on conquest for good 200 odd years

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Laughs in Half-White Globalist Liberal Elite

We don't care for your westoid invented race construct, that is obviously a coping mechanism to protect the weakest phenotype of mankind- white traits.
We care about your trash western culture, western values and your primitive social structure. Thats why its slated for deletion.

 

[SwordOfDarkness]

IMO Putin probably can muster at most single digit thousand ground forces personnel, other than police/paramilitary, in time (a number I pulled out of my behind). This can be pretty close I think.

As long as there are a section of professionals in the fields of untrained, its enough. Deploy army side by side with police, and the police will fight like the army. No one wants to be a coward when those around him are brave.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars The Wagner is not a challenge for the Russian military, the mutiny could be psychologically destructive. The loss of the Ukraine would be trigger for a greater conflict If that happen.

 

[ovalpiston]

Ya'll Nibbiars The Wagner is not a challenge for the Russian military, the mutiny could be psychologically destructive. The loss of the Ukraine would be trigger for a greater conflict If that happen.

Precisely.

 

[temujin]

KA 52 shot down by Wagner in Voronezh. Crew dead

 

[SKC]

Uhh, Russia and up to what is modern day western poland were Mongol vassals for 200 years. Russian, lithuanian, polish princes used to travel to Old Sarai & New Sarai, capital of the Golden Horde ulus, to get confirmed by the khan as his vassals.
It was in 1300s i believe when Russians won a key victory vs the mongols, neutralising their archers by literally using wooden walls on wheels on the battlefield that the Mongol yoke was thrown off. I forget the name of the Russian prince who did that, but he's basically the third/fourth most famous Russian monarch of alltime, after Peter the great, Catherine the Great and Ivan the terrible.

Russian state during that time was much smaller that time even smaller than UP maybe

 

[SKC]

Elon promoting the space:

over 1 lac people in the space

 

[GaudaNaresh]

Russian state during that time was much smaller that time even smaller than UP maybe

it was more like a coalition of 20+ principalities spanning the size of India fought Subotai baghatuur and got their asses kicked completely.
IIRC it was ALL the keivan Rus principalities minus the Grand Dutchy of Muscovy that fought the mongols- the latter is the only one that wilfully submitted and reaped the rewards for being the defacto 'leader of the Rus' under the Mongol overlordship.

 

[jackprince]

One thing a person should never try is to march on Moscow in defiance of the Russian Federation Army.

* In June 1812, Napoleon, despite the treaty of allies with the Soviets, ventured with 900,000 French soldiers to march on Moscow. Mysteriously by December 1812, Napoleon had to turn back to Paris with only 20,000 soldiers able to stand.

* Charles XII tried it,

* Hitler tried it.

Nobody managed to march on Moscow and stayed alive afterwards.

Don't forget the Bolsheviks.

Right now we know nothing to predict in which way the wind will blow. The PMCs have managed to reach to Moscow unmolested. That says that there is little in way of actual control by Putin over whatever forces there are in the vicinity of Moscow or there are communication gaps. Most likely Putin is yet figuring out which forces are loyal to him and how hard he wants to bring down the hammer, if he has the forces.

It is always different how the use of force would play out in a civil war. Especially since the blood spilled will all be Russian including the potential collateral damage.

Not to forget Russia is engaged in an actual war which prevents Putin from drawing a bigger sabre he might otherwise have. Also, people have lost there dear ones in the protracted war and many would like to see the war ended.

Btw, some people here were saying Wagners are only 25K. That is 25K battle hardened guys with strong sense of if brotherhood forged under fire. At the end of the day it doesn't matter how many soldiers may not accept Wagner, but how many of them who are in position to prevent Wagner from taking over actually decides to fight them.

In a civil war, the sands move pretty fast and who gets dragged down the quicksand may come down to the action of a single soldier shooting under order or not shooting despite the order. Soldiers have a hivemind when it comes to the brotherhood. Any general can issue any order, but in a civil war a captain might make a move that decides the fate of a nation. Remember Napoleon in the French revolution. Many claims that his decisive action saved the revolution, and he was a young captain during battle of Toulon.

So, lets not be too eager to predict anything just yet.

 

[Jimih]

Don't forget the Bolsheviks.

Right now we know nothing to predict in which way the wind will blow. The PMCs have managed to reach to Moscow unmolested. That says that there is little in way of actual control by Putin over whatever forces there are in the vicinity of Moscow or there are communication gaps. Most likely Putin is yet figuring out which for es are loyal to him and how hard he wants to bring down the hammer, if he has the forces.

It is always different how the use of force would play out in a covil war. Especially since the blood spilled will all be Russian including the potential collateral damage.

Not to forget Russia is engaged in an actual war which prevents Putin from drawing a bigger sabre he might otherwise have. Also, people have lost there dear ones in the protracted war and many would like to see the war ended.

Btw, some people here were saying Wagners are only 25K. That is 25K battle hardened guys with strong sense if brotherhood forged under fire. At the end of the day it doesn't matter how many soldiers may not accept Wagner, but how many of them who are in position to prevent Wagner from taking over actually decides to fight them.

In a civil war, the sands move pretty fast and who gets dragged down the quicksand may come down to the action of a single soldier shooting under order or not shooting despite the order. Soldiers have a hivemind when it comes to the brotherhood. Any general can issue any order, but in a civil war a captain might make a move that decides the fate of a nation. Remember Napoleon in the French revolution. Many claims that his decisive action saved the revolution, and he was a young captain during battle of Toulon.

So, lets not be too eager to predict anything just yet.

Long time no see mate.

 

[jackprince]

Long time no see mate.

Busy with life mate. Too frustrated with everything happening in India and outside, so finding hard to gather enthusiasm for the forum debate.

World is getting too unpredictable for old me, mate.

 

[Haldilal]

Ya'll Nibbiars The West must be really desperate to fund a person like the PMC head. Because putin bad but the person who they want to replace is not even good but as bad as the previous one. Nothing changes. But that's not what the west probably wants, but some time.

 

[ovalpiston]

One thing a person should never try is to march on Moscow in defiance of the Russian Federation Army.

* In June 1812, Napoleon, despite the treaty of allies with the Soviets, ventured with 900,000 French soldiers to march on Moscow. Mysteriously by December 1812, Napoleon had to turn back to Paris with only 20,000 soldiers able to stand.

* Charles XII tried it,

* Hitler tried it.

Nobody managed to march on Moscow and stayed alive afterwards.

Unless you are a Russian revolting against your government! Remember, WW1 had a lot to do with the eventual Russian Revolution that saw Bolsheviks successfully taking over St Petersburgh and Moscow. Similarly, the decade long bloody war in Afghanistan hastened the collapse of USSR eventually leading to the red flag of revolution coming down everywhere including Kremlin and the disintegration of Soviet Union. Plenty of examples what unpopular, dragged out wars do to those in power, they either succumb to revolutions or become victims of coup.

 

[SKC]

it was more like a coalition of 20+ principalities spanning the size of India fought Subotai baghatuur and got their asses kicked completely.
IIRC it was ALL the keivan Rus principalities minus the Grand Dutchy of Muscovy that fought the mongols- the latter is the only one that wilfully submitted and reaped the rewards for being the defacto 'leader of the Rus' under the Mongol overlordship.

Different principalities did not act with much unity and central leadership

Kievan Rus was very very small

 

[SKC]

Unless you are a Russian revolting against your government! Remember, WW1 had a lot to do with the eventual Russian Revolution that saw Bolsheviks successfully taking over St Petersburgh and Moscow. Similarly, the decade long bloody war in Afghanistan hastened the collapse of USSR eventually leading to the red flag of revolution coming down everywhere including Kremlin and the disintegration of Soviet Union. Plenty of examples what unpopular, dragged out wars do to those in power, they either succumb to revolutions or become victims of coup.

People forgetting that Zsar was not a popular king and not much power outside his castle

his defeat in Russian Japanese was in 1905 reduced his popularity a lot

 

[jackprince]

Ya'll Nibbiars The West must be really desperate to fund a person like the PMC head. Because putin bad but the person whole they want to replace is not even good but as bad as the previous one. Nothing changes. But that's not what the west probably wants, but some time.

Doesn't matter. If a civil war happens, Russia will either split in multiple seperate regions or be a spent force. Win win for USA and its cronies, and very very bad news for the world that has been in the brink of throwing out the yoke of the West.

 

[Jimih]

Unless you are a Russian revolting against your government! Remember, WW1 had a lot to do with the eventual Russian Revolution that saw Bolsheviks successfully taking over St Petersburgh and Moscow. Similarly, the decade long bloody war in Afghanistan hastened the collapse of USSR eventually leading to the red flag of revolution coming down everywhere including Kremlin and the disintegration of Soviet Union. Plenty of examples what unpopular, dragged out wars do to those in power, they either succumb to revolutions or become victims of coup.

The smart guys in Wagner will assimilate into the Russian military. They will still have their jobs and still have their lives.