Pakistan Economy: News & Discussion

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

The more the better. Let them wage Jihad on an empty stomach

Pakistan grows enough food so far. If its population goes past 30 crore, then it will start to see scarcity

 

[IndianHawk]

Pakistan grows enough food so far. If its population goes past 30 crore, then it will start to see scarcity

Growing food doesn't mean much is common people don't have money to buy them.
India attained food sufficiency long ago yet poor people suffered from hunger. This phenomenon is called market failure.

Pakistan is going through this. As market fails wages will stagnant and unemployment will rise.
Without money in hands of people prices will drop drastically sending farmers into debt trap.
This will lead to agrarian unrest and without input money for next cycle crop production will fall.



Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Growing food doesn't mean much is common people don't have money to buy them.
India attained food sufficiency long ago yet poor people suffered from hunger. This phenomenon is called market failure.

Pakistan is going through this. As market fails wages will stagnant and unemployment will rise.
Without money in hands of people prices will drop drastically sending farmers into debt trap.
This will lead to agrarian unrest and without input money for next cycle crop production will fall.



Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

Ley me put this bluntly: Food is humanitarian resource and market does not work. India never had poor dying of starvation as food is given in ration shops. Same with pakistan

 

[ezsasa]

Growing food doesn't mean much is common people don't have money to buy them.
India attained food sufficiency long ago yet poor people suffered from hunger. This phenomenon is called market failure.
Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

when was the last time there was a systematic failure which led to people dying of hunger?
it used to happen in BIMARU states up until 90's, hasn't happened post 2000.

 

[IndianHawk]

when was the last time there was a systematic failure which led to people dying of hunger?
it used to happen in BIMARU states up until 90's, hasn't happened post 2000.

Never said people were dying. But this was true that poor people didn't had purchasing power.
That is why nrega was brought in. And national food mission. So that a) wages rise and b) food prices drop for poor.

But these programs came with tremendous cost for exchequer. Our fast growing economy was able to digest these expenses while market corrects itself to provide sustainable employment to poor and brings them into lower middle class.

Pakistan doesn't have money to spend like us and neither a fast growing economy anymore.
They won't be able to correct this.

Proof will lie in pudding. In next few years see how Pakistan agriculture output Plummets if they keep wasting money of Panjabi army and isi.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Never said people were dying. But this was true that poor people didn't had purchasing power.
That is why nrega was brought in. And national food mission. So that a) wages rise and b) food prices drop for poor.

But these programs came with tremendous cost for exchequer. Our fast growing economy was able to digest these expenses while market corrects itself to provide sustainable employment to poor and brings them into lower middle class.

Pakistan doesn't have money to spend like us and neither a fast growing economy anymore.
They won't be able to correct this.

Proof will lie in pudding. In next few years see how Pakistan agriculture output Plummets if they keep wasting money of Panjabi army and isi.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

There was never food crisis in India not because of purchasing power but because of subsidised food. NREGA etc are all for increasing distribution of wealth to buy other goods like cloth, housing,schooling etc. As I said, Pakistanis need nothing except food and rest is happiness from Allah and dreams of jannat that keeps them cheerful

 

[ezsasa]

Never said people were dying. But this was true that poor people didn't had purchasing power.
That is why nrega was brought in. And national food mission. So that a) wages rise and b) food prices drop for poor.

But these programs came with tremendous cost for exchequer. Our fast growing economy was able to digest these expenses while market corrects itself to provide sustainable employment to poor and brings them into lower middle class.

Pakistan doesn't have money to spend like us and neither a fast growing economy anymore.
They won't be able to correct this.

Proof will lie in pudding. In next few years see how Pakistan agriculture output Plummets if they keep wasting money of Panjabi army and isi.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

Pakistan's agri output will not plummet because most of the lands are owned by rich punjabi chowdarys and they have large land holdings..

 

[IndianHawk]

Pakistan's agri output will not plummet because most of the lands are owned by rich punjabi chowdarys and they have large land holdings..

When market fails individual richness can't contain the structural fault lines.
Agriculture is dependent on water for which irrigation is needed for which electricity production must keep pace.
Fertilizer are imported rising dollar makes them very costly. As Pakistan rupee plummets paki food production will become cheaper overseas and greedy Panjabi will export smuggle it outside of nation.

Anyway like I said we can wait and watch.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[IndianHawk]

There was never food crisis in India not because of purchasing power but because of subsidised food. NREGA etc are all for increasing distribution of wealth to buy other goods like cloth, housing,schooling etc. As I said, Pakistanis need nothing except food and rest is happiness from Allah and dreams of jannat that keeps them cheerful

Subsidies food was required and still is required because like I said poor people lack purchasing power as they don't have sufficient income to buy at market rate.

Due to subsidies being only for grains it affected production of dals and coarse grains and affected nutrition. But that is a separate issue.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

 

[Haldiram]

The more the better. Let them wage Jihad on an empty stomach

As long as they have basic survival items, they don't care for secondary luxuries like AC, TV, fridge. We were prematurely hoping for them to revolt and disintegrate, which is why we have been surprised by their resilience. Only relying on resource scarcity rarely helped achieve strategic goals in this part of the world. Asians will fight and win even when there is acute shortage (like Bangladesh, and Vietnam). The Punjabis kept East Pakistan under starvation for decades, still they didn't revolt. Ultimately they revolted for dignity/language/identity.

The reason for Pakistan's breakup will ultimately have to be theological. The rich and poor are both involved in this jihad factory. Those who have money sponsor weapons, those who are poor send their sons. Those who have nothing, send their daughters to the baby-making factory, but they are all involved in the jihad factory. They can sustain it for decades at a very low cost.

Ultimately this Shia-Sunni thing will yield dividends to us. Those Sunnis who are willing to fight India must be tied up by Shia groups within Pakistan who will disrupt their operations. We can't wean them off Jihad. Let them do Jihad, but against each other.

 

[garg_bharat]

Haldiram ji, you have very little idea of Punjabi Muslim psyche. Punjabi Muslim is 60% of Pakistan population. Punjabi Muslim always wants good life and is remarkably corrupt.

We Indians either ignore jihad or we glorify it. We should do neither. Jihad is a political concept. Most jihadi are just paid soldiers, where ideology (brainwashing) is a large part of training. There could be very few jihadi who act on their own but bulk are paid soldiers.

Remember any financial squeeze on Pakistan will affect jihadi orgs too.

The reason for Pakistan's breakup will be money only. The music stops when money stops. Saudi know this better than us.

The best way is to squeeze Paki army hard. So hard that it loses all hope. Rest will be done by Paki public.

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

Subsidies food was required and still is required because like I said poor people lack purchasing power as they don't have sufficient income to buy at market rate.

Due to subsidies being only for grains it affected production of dals and coarse grains and affected nutrition. But that is a separate issue.

Sent from my C103 using Tapatalk

Grains is the only thing needed for survival and hence it does not matter if other things are available or not. Since that is ll that matters, there is no point in talking of scarcity

 

[LordOfTheUnderworlds]

What if Pakistan offers its land for invasion of Iran by US/Saudi in exchange for 100 billion dollars plus modern weapons? Will american administration prefer it overlooking India's objections? Does China has any leverage over Pakistan if they decide to switch sides overnight?

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

What if Pakistan offers its land for invasion of Iran by US/Saudi in exchange for 100 billion dollars plus modern weapons? Will american administration prefer it overlooking India's objections? Does China has any leverage over Pakistan if they decide to switch sides overnight?

Pakistan is a prostitute of Arabs and it will allow anyone to have a base there if Arabs say so. China does not have as much of goodwill as Arabs. Pakistan only sees China as a strong country but there is no cultural friendliness

 

[suny6611]

What if Pakistan offers its land for invasion of Iran by US/Saudi in exchange for 100 billion dollars plus modern weapons? Will american administration prefer it overlooking India's objections? Does China has any leverage over Pakistan if they decide to switch sides overnight?

who all have borders with Iran ................ where US do not have presence ..............& y do u think pak will have any any any importance at all if IF US needs to attack Iran.

Iraq war ..... DID US needed land to start the war from ALL fronts (>>>Iran border ???)
&
that was a few decades ago ... in today's world antique weapons (US standards no F22/F35 etc)

then y do they need to attack Iran ............. when US is in a much better position to destroy them internally ... (economically)

& then who would need to use a shit hole (pak) to hit a economically destroyed country & them pay 100 billion dollars plus modern weapons.

sorry boy ......... u r under the influence of pakis ... this kind of thinking is all u read on their defence forum .............. be entertained ..... have a laugh ............... but pl do do not pollute ur mind

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

who all have borders with Iran ................ where US do not have presence ..............& y do u think pak will have any any any importance at all if IF US needs to attack Iran.

Iraq war ..... DID US needed land to start the war from ALL fronts (>>>Iran border ???)
&
that was a few decades ago ... in today's world antique weapons (US standards no F22/F35 etc)

then y do they need to attack Iran ............. when US is in a much better position to destroy them internally ... (economically)

& then who would need to use a shit hole (pak) to hit a economically destroyed country & them pay 100 billion dollars plus modern weapons.

sorry boy ......... u r under the influence of pakis ... this kind of thinking is all u read on their defence forum .............. be entertained ..... have a laugh ............... but pl do do not pollute ur mind

Land base is compulsory to wage military attack. But countries like Arab maritime neighbours can give the base. Pakistan base is not needed. See the map below:

Bases in UAE, Kuwait and Oman should be enough to take out Iranian military. The distance between UAE & Iran is less than 100km which means that it is no big deal for planes to cross over and strike Iran.

Nevertheless, if there is no land base it is impossible to invade or even defeat Iran. Aircraft carrier is just an expensive target if it does not have quick resupply.

In Iran-Iraq war, USA did not intervene directly and only supplied weapons to both sides. In today's case, there is no 2nd side to supply arms. So, any military action will have to be directly taken

 

[Suryavanshi]

Land base is compulsory to wage military attack. But countries like Arab maritime neighbours can give the base. Pakistan base is not needed. See the map below:

View attachment 34922

Bases in UAE, Kuwait and Oman should be enough to take out Iranian military. The distance between UAE & Iran is less than 100km which means that it is no big deal for planes to cross over and strike Iran.

Nevertheless, if there is no land base it is impossible to invade or even defeat Iran. Aircraft carrier is just an expensive target if it does not have quick resupply.

In Iran-Iraq war, USA did not intervene directly and only supplied weapons to both sides. In today's case, there is no 2nd side to supply arms. So, any military action will have to be directly taken

What will they attack in Iran?

 

[Advaidhya Tiwari]

What will they attack in Iran?

Oil facility, missile manufacturing facility, dams, military bases and logistics etc. The goal will be to make it like Iraq/Libya and then loot their oil resources

 

[suny6611]

free money for any reason is an addiction as it can buy any thing.

pakis have been receiving free money for 30 40 years say at-least 2 3 generations for them self. so now current generation is DEMANDING free flow in billions $$$$$$ ...............it was not them who were to die for free money


to work & earn billions $$$$$$ is an unthinkable task for them (beg (~~ loan) & steal is easy)

 

[suny6611]

A face-to-face meeting between Asia Pacific Group (APG) of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and Pakistan is scheduled later this month, to be followed by the Task Force undertaking its penultimate review of Pakistan’s progress early next month. The sword of the FATF, it seems, will continue to hang over our heads until after September this year when we would know our fate: whether we continue to remain in the grey list or are taken out of it or consigned to the black list.

It is perhaps because of our entanglement with the FATF that the IMF was seen to be dragging its feet on the matter of finalising a programme that we needed urgently as our foreign exchange reserves of around nine billion dollars mobilised through short-term loans from friendly countries have already disappeared.

What is extremely worrying is the very governing structure of the APG which is exceptionally unfriendly. A very hostile US is the President of the FATF represented by Marshall Billingslea, a serving Assistant Secretary of US Treasury who also heads the office of Terrorist Financing Crimes. Australia which is part of the anti-China (read Pakistan as well) Indo-Pacific alliance is the President of the APG and India which has already vowed to isolate Pakistan economically is the Co-chair of the APG. With such a formidable combination of hostile forces sitting on the review panel, one cannot rule out the possibility of handing out a rigged judgment. The only redeeming feature in the administrative set-up is China which sits on the FATF as its Vice-President represented by Liu Xiangmin, Director General of the Legal Department at the People’s Bank of China.
Equally worrisome is the fact that the European Commission (EC) has already placed Pakistan in its list of inadequate jurisdiction on Anti-Money Laundering and Counter Terror Financing regimes. If in such a situation we are pushed into the ‘black list’ by the FATF for no genuine fault of ours, it will unleash serious economic and financial impact down the stream causing immense damage to Pakistan’s economy.



The most obvious result would be the cost of doing a financial transaction through established banking/ financial system, increased premium on Pakistani instruments in the international capital markets, and the multilateral financing organisations would add risk premiums to any money borrowed. Black listing will squeeze Pakistan’s economy further and make it harder for the country to meet its mounting foreign financing needs, including potential future borrowings from the IMF. And if we remain in the ‘grey list’ it could lead to a downgrade in Pakistan’s debt ratings, making it more difficult to tap into the international bond markets. Further, it would lead to the downgrading of Pakistan’s financial viability.

The situation becomes all the more critical when seen in the context of the country’s current economic data: exports $23 billion, imports $42 billion, remittances $19 billion, fiscal deficit 6% of GDP, tax-to-GDP ratio 12% and inflation 8%.

And if this data is analysed against the projections of GDP growth rate by the three major multilateral aid agencies, we seem to be falling off the cliff sooner than later. According to World Economic Outlook report of the IMF, Pakistan’s GDP will grow at 2.9% in FY 19 and 2.8% in FY20. Similar preojections have been made by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank.

This would mean Pakistan’s GDP currently estimated at $320 billion would shrink by 2020 to around $280 billion which would mean our revenue collection ability would decline further even with accelerated efforts to expand the tax base ending next financial year with a fiscal deficit much larger than the current estimate of an unsustainable 6%.

In the meanwhile, the indirect costs like increase in inflation, increase in the discount rates, decline in industrial productivity, decline in exports, deterioration in currency etc, and stagnant inflow of FDI will adversely impact the overall economy.

http://www.defencenews.in/article/P...$280-bn-by-2020-and-the-threat-of-FATF-584628