abingdonboy
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Confirmed for now:Very informative post, but can you explain how India will able to induct > 200 Rafales ?
36- Off the shelf from France
+90- To be made in India, Dassualt are currently talking with the GoI about this now. Deal will be made by Dec 2016.
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126= MMRCA (remember that? The requirement hasn't disappeared)
+
54 (with follow-on option of 36)- Dassualt is in talks for this many for the Indian Navy.
=>200
If one is to speculate it can be said the final numbers will touch much more than this- the IAF's SQN decline won't be addressed by LCAs alone and the MKI's production line will cease in 2019/20 and thus to get 45 SQNs by 2025 (as the GoI has told the IAF they must do) a lot of Rafales are going to have to be inducted to make up the shortfall.
As far as the IN is concerned the situation is rather complex as it depends on their aircraft carriers. As it stands there are 45 MiG-29Ks (3 SQNs worth) of MiG-29Ks for the INS Vikramditya but the INS Vikrant will be in service by 2018 and it will require its own airwing but 0 jets have been procured for it as of yet. Whilst it is possible to split the 3 SQNs of MiG-29K between 2 carriers this would mean they are going to sea well below capacity- 1 SQN each with 1 SQN on shore duties (trianing and unservicable). This is before one throws in the fact that the IN is mooting the idea of inducting a second 40,000 Vikrant class carrier because the IAC-2 is a long way off still. Thus 3 SQNs of MiG-29K for 3 ACs doesn't work at all.
And it is here that Dassualt has jumped into the fray- they are offering the Rafale-M for BOTH the IN's STOBAR and CATOBAR carriers ie this one plane coud operate from ANY IN AC (current or future) whilst the MiG-29K can only operate from STOBAR carriers. The IN is very interested in the Rafale-M as a result as they could standardise their training, logistics and spares for a single type in the long term and the IN is paranoid about their logistics (as well they should be) the last thing they want is waste and dupicaton of services. The IN also is keen as getting the Rafale will allow them to tap a common platform with the IAF and thus ensure ease of operations for the forseeable future (35-40 years). The IAF's MiG-29UPGs will be out of service by 2032.
Thus the IN's intial requirement for Rafale-Ms is 54 by 2025 but by 2030 it could be >100 and by 2035 it could be >160. The Rafale would also offer a great compliment to the N-AMCA in IN service especially if the French are roped in as a technical partner for the AMCA project.